nice chart bro...u use harmonic...right....hope u can keep posting ur analysis
There is a strong support @ 209.93, patience²...
- #7,063
- Feb 12, 2008 7:56pm Feb 12, 2008 7:56pm
Credit Suisse Lowers Forecast for Euro as Growth Slows Down
By Ye Xie
Feb. 12 (Bloomberg) -- The euro will decline to its lowest level against the dollar since October over the next three months as the European economy slows and the European Central Bank is forced to reduce its main interest rate, according to Credit Suisse Group.
The European currency, trading at $1.4580 today, will fall to $1.41 by May, Zurich-based Credit Suisse said in a research note to clients. The bank, Switzerland's second-biggest, lowered its forecast from $1.51. Credit Suisse predicted the euro will decline to 145.2 yen over the same period, down from the firm's previous forecast of 155.5 yen.
``Europe is facing a cyclical slowdown, and the ECB will cut interest rates,'' said Umberto Alvisi, a Credit Suisse strategist in London who worked on the report, in an interview today. ``From the valuation point of view, the euro-dollar is expensive. We feel the risk of a decline in the euro has increased.''
The euro lost 2 percent against the dollar last week, the biggest weekly decline since June 2006, after ECB President Jean- Claude Trichet signaled he's open to lowering interest rates for the first time in five years.
The ECB held its benchmark interest rate at 4 percent on Feb. 7 to contain inflation, even as Trichet said growth risks ``lie on the downside.'' Credit Suisse said in its research note, published yesterday, that the central bank will start cutting in the second quarter, pushing the rate to 3.25 percent by year-end.
The euro rose 0.4 percent today from $1.4519 yesterday, the steepest advance since Jan. 30, after a report showed German investor confidence unexpectedly strengthened this month. Against the yen, the currency climbed 0.78 percent to 156.51.
`Turning Bearish'
German two-year notes yielded 3.12 percent today, 1.16 percentage points more than similar-maturity U.S. Treasuries. The gap narrowed from 1.39 percentage points on Jan. 22, which was the widest since 2002. A smaller yield gap diminishes the attractivness of German bonds relative to Treasuries.
``We are turning bearish on the euro,'' London-based Ray Farris, Alvisi and New York-based currency strategist Tim Graf wrote in the note. ``Markets may increasingly punish the euro for ECB delays in cutting rates as delays are likely to look like a policy mistake that requires deeper cuts later.''
The euro will also fall against the pound to 73.5 pence in three months, from 74.4 pence today, the note forecast. Credit Suisse had predicted the euro to trade at 76.
The bank recommended investors sell the euro against the yen.
By Ye Xie
Feb. 12 (Bloomberg) -- The euro will decline to its lowest level against the dollar since October over the next three months as the European economy slows and the European Central Bank is forced to reduce its main interest rate, according to Credit Suisse Group.
The European currency, trading at $1.4580 today, will fall to $1.41 by May, Zurich-based Credit Suisse said in a research note to clients. The bank, Switzerland's second-biggest, lowered its forecast from $1.51. Credit Suisse predicted the euro will decline to 145.2 yen over the same period, down from the firm's previous forecast of 155.5 yen.
``Europe is facing a cyclical slowdown, and the ECB will cut interest rates,'' said Umberto Alvisi, a Credit Suisse strategist in London who worked on the report, in an interview today. ``From the valuation point of view, the euro-dollar is expensive. We feel the risk of a decline in the euro has increased.''
The euro lost 2 percent against the dollar last week, the biggest weekly decline since June 2006, after ECB President Jean- Claude Trichet signaled he's open to lowering interest rates for the first time in five years.
The ECB held its benchmark interest rate at 4 percent on Feb. 7 to contain inflation, even as Trichet said growth risks ``lie on the downside.'' Credit Suisse said in its research note, published yesterday, that the central bank will start cutting in the second quarter, pushing the rate to 3.25 percent by year-end.
The euro rose 0.4 percent today from $1.4519 yesterday, the steepest advance since Jan. 30, after a report showed German investor confidence unexpectedly strengthened this month. Against the yen, the currency climbed 0.78 percent to 156.51.
`Turning Bearish'
German two-year notes yielded 3.12 percent today, 1.16 percentage points more than similar-maturity U.S. Treasuries. The gap narrowed from 1.39 percentage points on Jan. 22, which was the widest since 2002. A smaller yield gap diminishes the attractivness of German bonds relative to Treasuries.
``We are turning bearish on the euro,'' London-based Ray Farris, Alvisi and New York-based currency strategist Tim Graf wrote in the note. ``Markets may increasingly punish the euro for ECB delays in cutting rates as delays are likely to look like a policy mistake that requires deeper cuts later.''
The euro will also fall against the pound to 73.5 pence in three months, from 74.4 pence today, the note forecast. Credit Suisse had predicted the euro to trade at 76.
The bank recommended investors sell the euro against the yen.
Monthly Profit & Lost :-
May - +85 pips
- #7,064
- Feb 12, 2008 8:01pm Feb 12, 2008 8:01pm
- Joined Nov 2007 | Status: Trader | 1,158 Posts
http://img248.imageshack.us/img248/2408/gjhhhkm9.jpg
Simple preview for me...gj now stay raging...in retracement...erm... i set price 210.60 for Strong resistance for today...and price 209.70(pivot point) for strong support ....for now i see...gj create below candle at ema50...so..maybe strong to be movement coming....just my opinion...
Simple preview for me...gj now stay raging...in retracement...erm... i set price 210.60 for Strong resistance for today...and price 209.70(pivot point) for strong support ....for now i see...gj create below candle at ema50...so..maybe strong to be movement coming....just my opinion...
- #7,066
- Feb 12, 2008 8:09pm Feb 12, 2008 8:09pm
http://img248.imageshack.us/img248/2408/gjhhhkm9.jpg
Simple preview for me...gj now stay raging...in retracement...erm... i set price 210.60 for Strong resistance for today...and price 209.70(pivot point) for strong support ....for now i see...gj create below candle at ema50...so..maybe strong to be movement coming....just my opinion...
My ATR showing low volatility . Dont think we'll see much action for now.
Monthly Profit & Lost :-
May - +85 pips
- #7,067
- Feb 12, 2008 8:14pm Feb 12, 2008 8:14pm
- Joined Nov 2007 | Status: Trader | 1,158 Posts
..maybe 12.30 pm market.. will start active
- #7,068
- Feb 12, 2008 8:22pm Feb 12, 2008 8:22pm
- Joined Apr 2007 | Status: USF Statistics | 2,248 Posts
Good Morning AmeriTrini. What a crazy day yesterday. Forex can now be manipulated by individual. So clear that Warren Buffet can do it, and im sure many other can do it too. Anyway it caught us by surprise and i was not trading that time. Lost like 65pips yesterday.
Ok back to GJ, it seems the bull might continue to 211.70- 212.50 area before we might see another retracement downwards again. Setting PO GJ long at 209.70 SL 209 TP 211.70. Good Luck
Im looking to long GU as well, deciding on an entry though.
- #7,069
- Feb 12, 2008 8:29pm Feb 12, 2008 8:29pm
Ok back to GJ, it seems the bull might continue to 211.70- 212.50 area before we might see another retracement downwards again. Setting PO GJ long at 209.70 SL 209 TP 211.70. Good Luck
- #7,071
- Feb 12, 2008 9:04pm Feb 12, 2008 9:04pm
- Joined Nov 2007 | Status: Trader | 1,158 Posts
PO hit 209.70. Let the ride begin!
- #7,072
- Feb 12, 2008 9:15pm Feb 12, 2008 9:15pm
Overall, i still prefer bear on GJ, but because of the 800bil, i expect the bull to run over for a while then we might see a retracement down again. Entry is based on Pivot points and TP on R1. Long term target for GJ still remain the same - bear till 200 mark.
Monthly Profit & Lost :-
May - +85 pips
Hi guys,
My research (test) signals:
Long BO:210.15 CL:209.75 TP1:210.53 TP2:210.80 Max TP:211.84
Short BO:209.75 CL:210.15 TP1:209.15 TP2:208.84 Max TP:208.34
According to my system, all down trend sets had taken profit already at 209.70 (max was 209.50.) This means no more down trend force which started at 12.00am this morning.
There were two consolidation sets formed since 9am. So if current bearish consolidation set breaks previous bullish set then it'll go short. If not, new bullish consolidation set forms and takes out bearish one then it'll be up trend.
I aggressively short at 209.86 because it did break my earlier short BO of 209.80 so it was short bias.
I'll most probably close all my trades before 3pm for early Valentine celebration with my wife
P.S. Today is my last day here.
My research (test) signals:
Long BO:210.15 CL:209.75 TP1:210.53 TP2:210.80 Max TP:211.84
Short BO:209.75 CL:210.15 TP1:209.15 TP2:208.84 Max TP:208.34
According to my system, all down trend sets had taken profit already at 209.70 (max was 209.50.) This means no more down trend force which started at 12.00am this morning.
There were two consolidation sets formed since 9am. So if current bearish consolidation set breaks previous bullish set then it'll go short. If not, new bullish consolidation set forms and takes out bearish one then it'll be up trend.
I aggressively short at 209.86 because it did break my earlier short BO of 209.80 so it was short bias.
I'll most probably close all my trades before 3pm for early Valentine celebration with my wife
P.S. Today is my last day here.
There were two consolidation sets formed since 9am. So if current bearish consolidation set breaks previous bullish set then it'll go short. If not, new bullish consolidation set forms and takes out bearish one then it'll be up trend.
- #7,077
- Feb 13, 2008 12:52am Feb 13, 2008 12:52am
- Joined Nov 2007 | Status: Trader | 1,158 Posts
http://img516.imageshack.us/img516/32/paterernym5.jpg
wow..gj break below Ema50 at TF 30.....this ideal price pattern or not?....be patience.....
wow..gj break below Ema50 at TF 30...
..this ideal price pattern or not?....be patience.....
- #7,079
- Feb 13, 2008 12:55am Feb 13, 2008 12:55am
- | Joined Oct 2007 | Status: how many wrongs to make it right? | 112 Posts
am i the only one having this gap on Northfinance platform? i dont see this gap on other broker. forgot to ask earlier.. sori².. huhu..
and also the candles for 11 and 12 February disappeared from the chart. hilp me plz!
and also the candles for 11 and 12 February disappeared from the chart. hilp me plz!
nasi lemak style! wachaaa... em, nyum nyum mamam... 