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Daily Cable Analysis

  • #1,341
  • Jan 11, 2007 1:50pm Jan 11, 2007 1:50pm
Waiting for the close of the Daily, should help determine some direction upcoming.
  • #1,342
  • Jan 11, 2007 2:34pm Jan 11, 2007 2:34pm
Quoting monarch
Waiting for the close of the Daily, should help determine some direction upcoming.
so where are we heading bro?

Appreciate your posts, keep it up
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #1,343
  • Jan 11, 2007 3:00pm Jan 11, 2007 3:00pm
Quoting monarch
Waiting for the close of the Daily, should help determine some direction upcoming.
I see your point... We may have pin bar in this 4hr candle, right? Not that big deal pin-bar, but yet a pin bar...

Given the history of this week + the several pips up and down as of today, we may have a chilled Friday ... OR ... a Friday to anticipate the rush towards 9550 to start the new week channel down as we see, but that will depend on good volume this Friday, won't it?

I've seen weekly channels being initiated on Moday - remember those during Dec? Quite a pattern - Big up on Monday (Tue occasionally) then downs and ups within a channel...

What is our brain if not a "pattern recognizer" afterall...?

Thanks for your help.. never much to say.
  • #1,344
  • Jan 11, 2007 3:20pm Jan 11, 2007 3:20pm
Looking at the High the past couple of hours we got up to 1.9459, 6 pips below the 50% Fibo on the Hourly.

Looking at the channel range of 30 pips or so, we have the same scenario that we have seen everyday during this period.

From the look of the volume, there does not seem to be enough pressure right now to push the price downwards. I expect a push upward around the Frankfurt and London Open session.

My expectation would be a slight upwards clip for the remainder of the week, ending the week around the 1.9500-06 area.


This would set us up next week at the market open for a small continuation upward of 50-60 pips or so to the 1.9550-65 area to complete the 50% Fibo level that I have been talking about.

If this scenario happens, All 50% Fibo's would be completed.

I then predict that the remainder of next week would be a downward movement towards the 50% Fibo at 1.9205-10, and possibly to 1.9180-85 at best. Not a straight drop, but the same scenario of Fibo test on the downward as we have seen this week on the upward movement.

This is just my expectation after calculating many price factors and figures into the short and long term time frames.

Please do not use this for your trade entries.
  • #1,345
  • Jan 11, 2007 3:27pm Jan 11, 2007 3:27pm
Amen

Quoting monarch
Looking at the High the past couple of hours we got up to 1.9459, 6 pips below the 50% Fibo on the Hourly.

Looking at the channel range of 30 pips or so, we have the same scenario that we have seen everyday during this period.

From the look of the volume, there does not seem to be enough pressure right now to push the price downwards. I expect a push upward around the Frankfurt and London Open session.

My expectation would be a slight upwards clip for the remainder of the week, ending the week around the 1.9500-06 area.


This would set us up next week at the market open for a small continuation upward of 50-60 pips or so to the 1.9550-65 area to complete the 50% Fibo level that I have been talking about.

If this scenario happens, All 50% Fibo's would be completed.

I then predict that the remainder of next week would be a downward movement towards the 50% Fibo at 1.9205-10, and possibly to 1.9180-85 at best. Not a straight drop, but the same scenario of Fibo test on the downward as we have seen this week on the upward movement.

This is just my expectation after calculating many price factors and figures into the short and long term time frames.

Please do not use this for your trade entries.
  • #1,346
  • Jan 11, 2007 4:29pm Jan 11, 2007 4:29pm
The only thing that worries me about how far the downtrend has to go is that EUR/USD is already below the 50 fib of the long term move up from 1.25 and only has 70 pips to go before it reaches the 61.8 level. This has happened without a significant retracement (it's been retracing to the 23.6 level all the way along). We would have to see some strength in EUR/GBP for GBP/USD to get much lower.
  • #1,347
  • Jan 11, 2007 5:05pm Jan 11, 2007 5:05pm
Quoting notouch
The only thing that worries me about how far the downtrend has to go is that EUR/USD is already below the 50 fib of the long term move up from 1.25 and only has 70 pips to go before it reaches the 61.8 level. This has happened without a significant retracement (it's been retracing to the 23.6 level all the way along). We would have to see some strength in EUR/GBP for GBP/USD to get much lower.
I also use to keep an eye on EURUSD and USDJPY for cross reference... But during those last two weeks, they seem to be pursuing their own agenda... And now with GB interest rate hike and EUR steady, who's gonna know...
  • #1,348
  • Jan 11, 2007 8:09pm Jan 11, 2007 8:09pm
We are pushing upward some here the past several hours.

There is strong resisitance at 1.9460-63 which has been a resistance and support point during the past 7 weeks of movement.

We have been held up at this point for the 4th time now to be exact.

Daily Chart:

1st - Resistance 11-27-06
2nd - Support 12-11-06
3rd - Support 12-19-06
4th - Resistance (Now)

5 other times it came within 8-20 pips of this point.

We actually only crossed and closed beyond this point twice.

1st Time - Upward 11-29-06 (Wick still touches price line)
2nd Time - Downward 1-05-07 (opened 37 pips below price line)

The Daily candle body has straddled this price line 6 times during a closing candle for the past 7 weeks.
  • #1,349
  • Jan 11, 2007 8:19pm Jan 11, 2007 8:19pm
Dear Monarch,

Do we have a culmination triangle forming, month long upper line, 1.9460 and
side sloping up which touched yesterday's low.

If so , today will be interesting
best
j
  • #1,350
  • Jan 11, 2007 8:34pm Jan 11, 2007 8:34pm
we had a closing price on the weekly two weeks in a row1.9588 1.9586 average true range on the daily is 131 pips 1.9588 - 131 is 1.9457 current price 1.9457
  • #1,351
  • Edited Feb 2, 2007 3:49pm Jan 11, 2007 8:35pm | Edited Feb 2, 2007 3:49pm
Quoting jsh01
Dear Monarch,

Do we have a culmination triangle forming, month long upper line, 1.9460 and
side sloping up which touched yesterday's low.

If so , today will be interesting
best
j
Is this the triangle your talking about?
  • #1,352
  • Edited Feb 2, 2007 3:49pm Jan 11, 2007 8:41pm | Edited Feb 2, 2007 3:49pm
Quoting 59fender
we had a closing price on the weekly two weeks in a row1.9588 1.9586 average true range on the daily is 131 pips 1.9588 - 131 is 1.9457 current price 1.9457
Exactly, this is the chart and double bottom your talking about.
  • #1,353
  • Jan 11, 2007 8:47pm Jan 11, 2007 8:47pm
Quoting monarch
Exactly, this is the chart and double bottom your talking about.
that double bottom looks mighty powerful
  • #1,354
  • Edited Feb 2, 2007 3:49pm Jan 11, 2007 8:49pm | Edited Feb 2, 2007 3:49pm
This is the point we are watching. Break this on the hourly, and we will be on our way upwards. The longer it holds the less chance of breaking it has in my opinion.

1 Hour Chart 1.9463 acting resistance.
  • #1,355
  • Jan 11, 2007 8:53pm Jan 11, 2007 8:53pm
Quoting 59fender
that double bottom looks mighty powerful
Look to the left on that same chart and you will see a similiar double bottom that started the large bull run 2 months ago.

That was a monster of a run.
  • #1,356
  • Jan 11, 2007 8:55pm Jan 11, 2007 8:55pm
Quoting monarch
This is the point we are watching. Break this on the hourly, and we will be on our way upwards. The longer it holds the less chance of breaking it has in my opinion.

1 Hour Chart 1.9463 acting resistance.
do'nt break now, my broker shuts down for 15 minutes
  • #1,357
  • Jan 11, 2007 9:00pm Jan 11, 2007 9:00pm
Quoting 59fender
that double bottom looks mighty powerful
If all I was trading on was Pin Bars and not all this other technical mumbo jumbo, I would trade the farm on that double bottom.

Just imagine if you would have done sold the cat and car on Oct 8th and 15th double bottom, you would have been up - Oh lets say 1138 pips - times 10 standard lots = 113,800.00.

Nice bit of change for a two month job.


  • #1,358
  • Jan 11, 2007 9:05pm Jan 11, 2007 9:05pm
Quoting monarch
Nice bit of change for a two month job.
To say the least.
David
  • #1,359
  • Jan 11, 2007 9:10pm Jan 11, 2007 9:10pm
im at 465...
"Anything in life worth having, doesn't come easy."
  • #1,360
  • Jan 11, 2007 9:16pm Jan 11, 2007 9:16pm
but the candle hasn't closed...
"Anything in life worth having, doesn't come easy."
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