That's just my opinion and you have a right to yours.
Daniel
Indicator Free Trading - Skunny
- #3,702
- Feb 12, 2008 7:27am Feb 12, 2008 7:27am
- Joined Nov 2007 | Status: Trader | 3,060 Posts
I can see already now that this gann stuff is going to be insano and cause me more sleepless nights if that is at all possible lol
if u throw a -6 in as prive projection seems pretty close on 1 hr
pipr a genius>??????
could be
have to go golfing today (ah I love living in florida) but b4 I go just wanted to post this update that I awoke to on the pipr gj chart from last night)!!!
WOW pipr!!!!
updated
- #3,706
- Feb 12, 2008 10:21am Feb 12, 2008 10:21am
- Joined Jan 2007 | Status: Trader | 11,838 Posts
Trading Levels with WRBs
- #3,712
- Feb 12, 2008 10:50am Feb 12, 2008 10:50am
I'm using the Gann Line in Mt4 then setting the scale according to some studying I am doing with the gann square of nine and the date rotational bezel on the outside. Also known as the master time and price calculator.
I'm looking for concrete stats at this point. Meaning, I can use certain scale numbers now by looking at trends on the charts, but they may not work in other trends, or time cycles. Once I figure out the square of nine with time bezel and can calculate the new trend scale BEFORE it happens I'll be onto something. But from what I see once you have the trend and retracement scales calculated - then you can use those for a couple of months at a time.
Wow! All that huh.
- #3,718
- Edited 11:43am Feb 12, 2008 11:41am | Edited 11:43am
- Joined Jan 2007 | Status: Trader | 11,838 Posts
Trading Levels with WRBs
- #3,719
- Edited 12:04pm Feb 12, 2008 11:51am | Edited 12:04pm
PiPr Pro,
I don't really want to start a debate over peripheral issues, but it gets on my nerves a bit when people start throwing around numbers without some qualification.
I believe him too, but to say "it is possible" so definitively is a bit bold. I'm using this as inspiration to study and learn, but I certainly haven't drunk the coolaid yet!
Can you point me to one of these!!! The inference here is that it's easy to get such a high W/L ratio, but in my experience testing dozens of so called profitable "systems", I haven't seen even one that gets close to this. The ones that I have seen have profit ratios below 1:3 (W:L), making them break even, at best.
The traders that I have spoken with who make a living trading all have W/L percentages hovering around 50%, but the consistent theme is that their profit ratios (W:L) are 3:1. They win big and take small losses.
Now, time to quit griping and actually add something to this thread. Based upon what I've learned so far from this thread, I have devised a very rudimentary 100% mechanical system that has a 72% W/L ratio (backtested with 2 pairs over one year for each) with an average profit ratio (W:L) of 3:4.
This may not seem like much compared to our goal of 100%, but I've run the statistics on my back testing results, including some Monte Carlo simulations, and I can assure you that you can double your money many times over during a single year with relatively little risk. Personally, this is all I need. Right now, my efforts to refine the system toward 100% are purely out of my personal desire to achieve perfection. I can retire on my current system - assuming, of course, that the characteristics of the markets don't change substantially (which may be a poor assumption).
My point is, I guess, that you don't need to be anywhere near 100% to make a living at this, and even a 60% system is adequate, provided the losers aren't too much larger than the winners. I believe that your statement about the 75% systems is misleading. It's just not that easy to make money at this. If it is, perhaps you might share some of your concepts.
BTW, I will share some of the details of my system after I forward test it for a couple of months.
Then you say "Now, time to quit griping and actually add something to this thread." Actually you kept on griping and added nothing. I have placed over 100 posts on this thread, many with charts and you say "If it is, perhaps you might share some of your concepts. BTW, I will share some of the details of my system after I forward test it for a couple of months".
How funny - your grand contribution is to start a debate then say you'll be back in a couple months to share some details. What do you want me to do, hand everything over to you with a silver spoon. This is exactly the type of posts that my peers refer to when they say I am crazy for trying to help retail investors on sites like this. Maybe I should have listened to them.
Why don't you "man-up", admit you have made a mistake here, be positive and actually contribute instead of griping. Otherwise, to use your words, you are just "throwing around numbers without some qualification" - we'll see you in a couple months with your system- yeah right
- #3,720
- Edited 12:00pm Feb 12, 2008 11:59am | Edited 12:00pm
PiPr Pro,
I don't really want to start a debate over peripheral issues, but it gets on my nerves a bit when people start throwing around numbers without some qualification.
I believe him too, but to say "it is possible" so definitively is a bit bold. I'm using this as inspiration to study and learn, but I certainly haven't drunk the coolaid yet!
Can you point me to one of these!!! The inference here is that it's easy to get such a high W/L ratio, but in my experience testing dozens of so called profitable "systems", I haven't seen even one that gets close to this. The ones that I have seen have profit ratios below 1:3 (W:L), making them break even, at best.
The traders that I have spoken with who make a living trading all have W/L percentages hovering around 50%, but the consistent theme is that their profit ratios (W:L) are 3:1. They win big and take small losses.
Now, time to quit griping and actually add something to this thread. Based upon what I've learned so far from this thread, I have devised a very rudimentary 100% mechanical system that has a 72% W/L ratio (backtested with 2 pairs over one year for each) with an average profit ratio (W:L) of 3:4.
This may not seem like much compared to our goal of 100%, but I've run the statistics on my back testing results, including some Monte Carlo simulations, and I can assure you that you can double your money many times over during a single year with relatively little risk. Personally, this is all I need. Right now, my efforts to refine the system toward 100% are purely out of my personal desire to achieve perfection. I can retire on my current system - assuming, of course, that the characteristics of the markets don't change substantially (which may be a poor assumption).
My point is, I guess, that you don't need to be anywhere near 100% to make a living at this, and even a 60% system is adequate, provided the losers aren't too much larger than the winners. I believe that your statement about the 75% systems is misleading. It's just not that easy to make money at this. If it is, perhaps you might share some of your concepts.
BTW, I will share some of the details of my system after I forward test it for a couple of months.
DocPMD,
I would tend to agree with you that the bulk of the "successful" trading populace just has about 50-60% win ratio and a higher win amount then loss.
That goes back to day 1. You can have a crappy "system" with a positive expectancy and as long as you EXPECT to win about half the time (coin flip) and when you lose it is like .99999 to every win being 1 + you end up in profit over time.
As far as Blackboxes and indicators... I know nothing about quants or indicators really BUT I can say that if you get your chops up with PASR (trendlines triagles bars candles etc) and trend trade you will have 75%+ IF you structure and time your trades smartly.
My best run ever(non fib) I had 62 trades in a row with one loser that I just closed out because it was a counter trend play.
To be fair I was just trading the trend on multiple pairs and structuring it so I didn't really have a stop loss. a catastrophic one but still .. it was all S/r and trend. It was a bulk of 20-60 pip scalps.
Also I was closing positions and reopening protecting profit so the number of trades may seem high but really could be lower if you just rode them out. No, it wasn;t the micros on a XXXk account.
it was standard lots and I increased the equity of my account XXX% in a month and a half using pyramiding and just boring trend trading. My final stats for that quarter were about 87.3% win. I struck while the trend was hot. Timed my trades and traded my plan. Now that doesn't mean anything I could be lying. whatever, the point is believe me or not ,believe Pipr pro or not believe SKunny, or not I will chime in and say yes it can be done. be open to the ideas or not. Go to Issy's thread he is rocking too. If you only win 50% of the time IMO you are
a.) Guessing/Gambling
b.) Still learning.
Also... ( i haven't been able/tried to repeat this yet) but my Fib partner and I traded NY on 1 MIN GY(doing 5 min fibs) for about 6 hours and we were pip perfect on our fibs and the market was completely predictable on retraces etc.. things like that cement the 100% for me. S/R is the key. After that ( as if I wasn;t before) I was taking a bath in the the Jim Jones Juice!
Just because I haven;t seen something before doesn;t prove it doesn;t exist. the world was flat once.
All that aside, Glad to have you here and happy to hear you found something that works out for you!
Sizz
Ps anyone targeting 211.50 on GY? cripes we might end up at 217.65.. on the way to retest that neckline break.
EDIT guess I took too long on this...