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Daily Cable Analysis

  • #1,301
  • Jan 11, 2007 12:43pm Jan 11, 2007 12:43pm
Roger that... I also see this down move coming... Problem is that drawdown scares the S##T out of me... . I've missed such good moves for simply staying out, fearing the drawdown...

However, if I stay out this time and the down move happens tonight, I will miss it - again.

Just this interest hike that's buzzing me here... But the quick retracement on the news may be indicating that a bull to 9700 is not likely, yet...

Thank you all again.


Quoting monarch
This is exactly the way I am playing this movement projection.

I see a possible upwards to1.955-60, but I feel we may be close at any given time.

I have enough in my account to place entries all through these type of scenarios.

The important thing is not to be over extended in your drawdown, choose your entries wisely, and around key price ranges.

For instance I just entered a Short at 1.9468, it hit exactly, and now it has backed off this Fibo area. I was poised and waiting to enter at 1 pip over the Fibo mark.

Next Short may be placed probably at the next Fibo 1.9465, but more like 1.9492, this was the lowon the retracement candle after the Bull 15 minute candle 6 hours ago.
  • #1,302
  • Edited Feb 2, 2007 11:46am Jan 11, 2007 12:48pm | Edited Feb 2, 2007 11:46am
ok. here is my print screen, so that u wont judge my actions,...those positions can easily be looking for more profit, so any to early judgement to enter it right now, or by mine sentence is strongly not recomended...

I like ur charts better, ...lets not fight, lets benefit one from the other, even if acting one against the other when actually trading,....good work, guys, iam way new to technicals...
its just money
  • #1,303
  • Jan 11, 2007 12:51pm Jan 11, 2007 12:51pm
i agree with cesar, but noone is posting on the other thread, they are here now. it was vey confusing with so many people saying cable would be going in both directions and all claiming they were right with their charts, waves, fibos, candles etc... i am new to trading, trying to find out what i am seeing, why and if it can be a successful trading method. there is tons of indicators that everyone throws around, and it can be confusing for a newbie. i have been out of school for years, so my head hurts!! if it wouldn't be too much trouble, whne you give info and post a chart with indicators on what and where you are looking so i can see as well as read and understand. i am a quick learner, but i am a hands on kind of guy, i like to see as well as read and my brain understands better. thanks everyone.


ok, point 2: i have understood that cable and euro usually work together and the yen is opposite in direction. right now, i see euro on its own and yen and cable moving in same direction. has the space/time continum been shattered, or is this due to the unexpected early rate hike and will work itself out in the next few days?? if so, will the move be tomorrow during the early euro session or when the retail sales comes out?? or next week??

monarch, you are wise beyond your years, i think your prayers are being answered and i do appreciate your insight and guidance. i am a christian, not as dedicated as you, but my excess earnings will go to help worthy charities, just have to earn some excess earnings first. i do flap my gums alot,but i have learned over the years to ask questions until i understand, sometimes i am thick headed, but i will get it!! again, i do appreciate your insight and anyone elses' to have the epiphany i need to see what i am missing.
  • #1,304
  • Jan 11, 2007 1:00pm Jan 11, 2007 1:00pm
Quoting cesarnc
Roger that... I also see this down move coming... Problem is that drawdown scares the S##T out of me... . I've missed such good moves for simply staying out, fearing the drawdown...

However, if I stay out this time and the down move happens tonight, I will miss it - again.

Just this interest hike that's buzzing me here... But the quick retracement on the news may be indicating that a bull to 9700 is not likely, yet...

Thank you all again.
New should confirm the direction we will be headed.

I would be apt to think this for now:

Up to 1.9550-60
Down to 1.9180-85 (1.9200-10 more reasonable for the upcoming week)

I am running an analysis on the projection of direcition once these two levels have been reached

This would be based solely on the analysis of previous support and Fibo retracement levels.
  • #1,305
  • Jan 11, 2007 1:03pm Jan 11, 2007 1:03pm
squeezee play?
  • #1,306
  • Jan 11, 2007 1:04pm Jan 11, 2007 1:04pm
News should confirm the direction we will be headed.
  • #1,307
  • Jan 11, 2007 1:04pm Jan 11, 2007 1:04pm
Quoting 59fender
squeezee play?
Little more explanation on what your watching, thanks
  • #1,308
  • Jan 11, 2007 1:07pm Jan 11, 2007 1:07pm
Beware of using market depth to indicate future moves. It works to an extent on stock index futures but tends not to work on currency futures.

Also it doesn't often work in the way you think it does. For example, if you have a large number of offers and not many bids most people would instinctively interpret that as meaning the market is going down but that's not necessarily so. Often where there are more offer than bids it's because the buyers are more aggressive so are using market orders instead of limit orders so buyers will buy up all the offers and the price will break upwards.
  • #1,309
  • Jan 11, 2007 1:08pm Jan 11, 2007 1:08pm
I got it thanks...

What is important is that this figures match: the Fibs in your strategy and the channel posted by Morshber (I guess), a very nice combination - the Fibs telling us where we go now and the channel showing the big picture and avoiding precipitaded breakout conclusions...

I'm on it now ...

Quoting monarch
New should confirm the direction we will be headed.
I would be apt to think this for now:

Up to 1.9550-60
Down to 1.9180-85 (1.9200-10 more reasonable for the upcoming week)

I am running an analysis on the projection of direcition once these two levels have been reached

This would be based solely on the analysis of previous support and Fibo retracement levels.
  • #1,310
  • Jan 11, 2007 1:11pm Jan 11, 2007 1:11pm
Quoting cesarnc
Roger that... I also see this down move coming... Problem is that drawdown scares the S##T out of me... . I've missed such good moves for simply staying out, fearing the drawdown...

However, if I stay out this time and the down move happens tonight, I will miss it - again.

Just this interest hike that's buzzing me here... But the quick retracement on the news may be indicating that a bull to 9700 is not likely, yet...

Thank you all again.
Never fear the drawdown, drawdown is your friend Just recognize the difference between analysis and those setups that you use within that analysis. Just because analysis points down and shows failure 100 pips away, doesn't mean you need to enter now and risk 100 pips, especially if that is not within your risk parameters. I know you like using fibs so perhaps you can use some fib setups. find a relevant fib level and enter there but scale in as price moves against you, dont enter all at one price. Then find a fib cluster behind you - an area where significant 38.2 and 61.8 retracements come together and place your stop behind that fortress, but on close, and not of 60 min timeframe or variation thereof, alot of spikes occur at the 45 minute and turn of the hour level and so the close will be behind that level only to reverse after you get out. Use a 68 minute timeframe or whatever works best for you. I like tick charts because no one time affects my bars more than another. Anyways, just an option to look into if you haven't already.
Man who scratches ass should not bite fingernails
  • #1,311
  • Jan 11, 2007 1:14pm Jan 11, 2007 1:14pm
Hi All
I am grateful for your research, analysis and time. Now EST is 2noon. What you think is direction of GBP/USD? Do you think father depreciation of EUR against USD, could cause GBP to depreciate against the dollar?
Thank you for your insight and guidance. Thanks to you all I start to understand some concepts even though I mainly rely on fundamentals...

Banda
BANDA333
  • #1,312
  • Jan 11, 2007 1:14pm Jan 11, 2007 1:14pm
FYI, i'm adding a little to my long position as i see 9450 resistance breaking here very shortly.. TP target 9530. again after reentry! got the spike, lucky yea! actually i went long at 9340 support with initial TP at 9530 resistance, got lucky they cashed me.. i'll take one since i've been mysteriously nailed on some s/l just a pip or so away plenty recently..
  • #1,313
  • Jan 11, 2007 1:15pm Jan 11, 2007 1:15pm
Quoting mtrmth
i agree with cesar, but noone is posting on the other thread, they are here now. it was vey confusing with so many people saying cable would be going in both directions and all claiming they were right with their charts, waves, fibos, candles etc... i am new to trading, trying to find out what i am seeing, why and if it can be a successful trading method. there is tons of indicators that everyone throws around, and it can be confusing for a newbie. i have been out of school for years, so my head hurts!! if it wouldn't be too much trouble, whne you give info and post a chart with indicators on what and where you are looking so i can see as well as read and understand. i am a quick learner, but i am a hands on kind of guy, i like to see as well as read and my brain understands better. thanks everyone.


ok, point 2: i have understood that cable and euro usually work together and the yen is opposite in direction. right now, i see euro on its own and yen and cable moving in same direction. has the space/time continum been shattered, or is this due to the unexpected early rate hike and will work itself out in the next few days?? if so, will the move be tomorrow during the early euro session or when the retail sales comes out?? or next week??

monarch, you are wise beyond your years, i think your prayers are being answered and i do appreciate your insight and guidance. i am a christian, not as dedicated as you, but my excess earnings will go to help worthy charities, just have to earn some excess earnings first. i do flap my gums alot,but i have learned over the years to ask questions until i understand, sometimes i am thick headed, but i will get it!! again, i do appreciate your insight and anyone elses' to have the epiphany i need to see what i am missing.
6 months ago you could make a trade with EUR/USD and automatically place the same position with GBP/USD.

Then you could flip the USD/CHF with USD/JPY and they would work together, and exactly against the EUR/USD and GBP/USD direction.

I wouldn't even try this so much as of now, I backed off of the USD/JPY -GBP/USD after I have seen they were changing their coincidental movements with one another.

I really do not have the reason or the answer for this, but I am sure there are those here who could better explain this to you.

Maybe Leugimp has more insight on this.
  • #1,314
  • Jan 11, 2007 1:15pm Jan 11, 2007 1:15pm
Quoting monarch
New should confirm the direction we will be headed.

I would be apt to think this for now:

Up to 1.9550-60
Down to 1.9180-85 (1.9200-10 more reasonable for the upcoming week)

I am running an analysis on the projection of direcition once these two levels have been reached

This would be based solely on the analysis of previous support and Fibo retracement levels.
The problem with that analysis is that it doesn't often happen that price goes straight through the 50 fib, back down, then up again to 61.8. Usually price would go more or less straight through to 61.8 when it breaks 50. So I think 50 is it for now and we're going down to 1.9185.
  • #1,315
  • Jan 11, 2007 1:18pm Jan 11, 2007 1:18pm
true, but its ideal for scalping in trading zone,...i was pointing that it might step away actually when future is not trading, and forex as 24h market does, one might gap up, the other still at 1.945,...but so far is trading simultainitly to forex,...
its just money
  • #1,316
  • Jan 11, 2007 1:18pm Jan 11, 2007 1:18pm
Quoting Leugimp
Never fear the drawdown, drawdown is your friend Just recognize the difference between analysis and those setups that you use within that analysis. Just because analysis points down and shows failure 100 pips away, doesn't mean you need to enter now and risk 100 pips, especially if that is not within your risk parameters. I know you like using fibs so perhaps you can use some fib setups. find a relevant fib level and enter there but scale in as price moves against you, dont enter all at one price. Then find a fib cluster behind you - an area where significant 38.2 and 61.8 retracements come together and place your stop behind that fortress, but on close, and not of 60 min timeframe or variation thereof, alot of spikes occur at the 45 minute and turn of the hour level and so the close will be behind that level only to reverse after you get out. Use a 68 minute timeframe or whatever works best for you. I like tick charts because no one time affects my bars more than another. Anyways, just an option to look into if you haven't already.
Thanks for explaing the prospect of different entry points, and the considerations we must make to optimize our profits, and reduce our drawdowns.

Stops are very dangerous if your playing this type of trade, you may be in it for more than you expected, but a stop always gets hit, at least my broker knows where it is. LOL
  • #1,317
  • Jan 11, 2007 1:26pm Jan 11, 2007 1:26pm
This is the image I was looking at earlier when i started to think that we might range between 9440 and 9400(between the purple and green dotted lines). when the daily range midline is crossed and then fluctuates between the first two fib levels of that range on both sides of midline, it is somewhat common to find it range there for some time. However being that my long positive reversal signal takes precedence for me, I still entered long at the confirmation of that signal but at minimum position size. Then, if signal is still valid, and we move to lower end of this range, I may add to the position including a bit more to scalp up to 40 again. Not a recommendation just what I am seeing.
Attached Image
Man who scratches ass should not bite fingernails
  • #1,318
  • Jan 11, 2007 1:27pm Jan 11, 2007 1:27pm
Quoting notouch
The problem with that analysis is that it doesn't often happen that price goes straight through the 50 fib, back down, then up again to 61.8. Usually price would go more or less straight through to 61.8 when it breaks 50. So I think 50 is it for now and we're going down to 1.9185.
There is few times the market will just go into a straight upward or downwards movement, but reviewing the movement up from 10-11-06 to
12-1-06 there was almost no Fibo retracements taking place on the short term range.

But once the High was revealed, there we can pinpoint every Fibo move there should be. All time frames are necessary, and every move considered, I will Subdivide each movement, and time frame.

So what we are seeing here the past few weeks is the result of the nice bull run up.

So far most Fibo's have been close on the price range, and its projected movements.

I would have to say that most of the 50% retracements were met in all the segmentation of time frames and Fibo level breakdowns thus far.
  • #1,319
  • Jan 11, 2007 1:29pm Jan 11, 2007 1:29pm
Quoting mtrmth
ok, point 2: i have understood that cable and euro usually work together and the yen is opposite in direction. right now, i see euro on its own and yen and cable moving in same direction. has the space/time continum been shattered, or is this due to the unexpected early rate hike and will work itself out in the next few days?? if so, will the move be tomorrow during the early euro session or when the retail sales comes out?? or next week??
It is strange but the reason for the irregular moves in GBP and EUR is becasue this week, EUR/GBP broke down through a support line defined by a triangle that contained the pair for over 3.5 years. Today it followed through significantly from 0.6700 to 0.6625.

USD/JPY and GBP/USD have both been rising and have been amplified by GBP/JPY which had a range of 400 pips today!

It is now possible for EURUSD and GBPUSD to lose some correlative properties. Since correlation between two pairs implies either; a steady long term trend in the cross or fluctuations contained in a tight range. EURGBP held to the latter. As EURGBP broke a long term support line we may see some indecision therefore causing EURUSD and GBPUSD to lose some correlation.
  • #1,320
  • Jan 11, 2007 1:30pm Jan 11, 2007 1:30pm
Quoting monarch
Stops are very dangerous if your playing this type of trade, you may be in it for more than you expected, but a stop always gets hit, at least my broker knows where it is. LOL
This is true, but I factor in 1 to 2 standard deviations on the large side of the average true range for timeframe(tickframe that I use) above my hard stop level, and make sure that this amount still fits my risk parameters. Of course news time is different and you will usually see that i reduce position size at this time to accomodate. Just one style.
Man who scratches ass should not bite fingernails
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