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Daily Cable Analysis

  • #1,261
  • Jan 11, 2007 10:43am Jan 11, 2007 10:43am
on the candle marked by the arrow we saw a complete retracement but the the price continued to go upwards. i dont think we are in the end of the move up, and in 4 h chart and the daily the trend is up ,unless we see a reversal.
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  • #1,262
  • Jan 11, 2007 10:44am Jan 11, 2007 10:44am
Dobbie11

Still have the line from 10-16-06 drawn, and we are right on it with the daily bouncing off of it precisely.

Now we see if the new daily candle in 4 hours comes back down to test it once again.

If that were the case, price would come down to 1.9310-30 range.
  • #1,263
  • Jan 11, 2007 10:46am Jan 11, 2007 10:46am
Quoting sandhockey
185 pips today. Good enough for me, I think I may go golfing.

ENORMOUS thanks to everyone, this thread has been instrumental in my learning.
Stay out of the bunkers mister sand man.

Good clip on profits, thanks for posting your results.
  • #1,264
  • Jan 11, 2007 10:48am Jan 11, 2007 10:48am
Quoting monarch
I have this in the back of my head, and I can't get away from thinking we are soon going to be heading there.

The one thing that is stopping me here on a long term short would be the fact that we probably still need to clear the 50% Fibo at 1.9550-9560 for the complete retracement of the downward move from the high 1.9846 to the low 1.9360.

We came within striking distance, but we may need to clear this hurdle before we can complete the Retracement on the large move up from
10-11-06 to 12-1-06.

I have several Shorts in position for the expected move down, but I have these stationed apart so I can maximize my profits, and minimize my drawdown.

Looking for the 1.9430 to either support or resist here, this is the 50% Fibo for our move upwards just completed
If an unexpected rate hike can't push it higher then nothing can. It's heading towards the 50 fib of the recent upmove at 1.9185.
  • #1,265
  • Jan 11, 2007 10:59am Jan 11, 2007 10:59am
seems to be going up a bit more .. rather steadily..
  • #1,266
  • Jan 11, 2007 11:00am Jan 11, 2007 11:00am
Quoting notouch
If an unexpected rate hike can't push it higher then nothing can. It's heading towards the 50 fib of the recent upmove at 1.9185.
current target is 1.9250 that can fail higer interest rate changes things
  • #1,267
  • Jan 11, 2007 11:02am Jan 11, 2007 11:02am
Quoting notouch
If an unexpected rate hike can't push it higher then nothing can. It's heading towards the 50 fib of the recent upmove at 1.9185.
I agree 100%. This is the point we have been waiting for on the downward.

Fibo 50% - 1.9185 is my final destination for the complete Fibo setups and ranges.

We have basically cleared all obstacles for this downward move.

I am basically waiting for the price to retrace last move upwards, and that would be the 38.2% at 1.9447, and the 50% at 1.9465 area.
  • #1,268
  • Jan 11, 2007 11:05am Jan 11, 2007 11:05am
Quoting Tatton
seems to be going up a bit more .. rather steadily..
This week has held no surprises if we were to subdivide every point of Fibo retracements, supports, channels, etc.

We are just going through the motion and every cycle has worked out fairly well. This has been a great week for analysis sake, and for confirming that technicals work great in these condition.

The next big hurdle is when we hit the 50% Fibo at 1.9180-85 area.

That would complete the whole cycle of the large bull run from the past two months.

That is where we will earn our money folks.
  • #1,269
  • Jan 11, 2007 11:08am Jan 11, 2007 11:08am
Monarch,

Great postings......

In the short-term you think it'll reach 1.9470 as the high then go down to 1.91?

David
David
  • #1,270
  • Jan 11, 2007 11:09am Jan 11, 2007 11:09am
hold on to your hats
  • #1,271
  • Jan 11, 2007 11:11am Jan 11, 2007 11:11am
It will be broken sooner or later. On my hourly chart the Extended Flat is done. We are now starting a new wave formation. This could very well be a W and X Wave going into a possible Triangle or a ZigZag Like AfricanPip called for earlier. Giving us a bit more consolidation before another big Move. I see this retracement going to 450 - 480 and then down again. I have been very lucky today and ended the day with over 200 very scarey pips. But thanks to " L's " 2 post going long during the london open I watched and because he made a statement about the UK raising rated I saddle it and did well. Thanks L !!! and also Thanks Monarch for all your imput and advice. Anything I can learn is always a big help.....
Quoting monarch
Dobbie11

Still have the line from 10-16-06 drawn, and we are right on it with the daily bouncing off of it precisely.

Now we see if the new daily candle in 4 hours comes back down to test it once again.

If that were the case, price would come down to 1.9310-30 range.
  • #1,272
  • Jan 11, 2007 11:11am Jan 11, 2007 11:11am
Lol, I really just wish I was trading in a real account, and not a demo account, I would have made some serious cash over the past two-three days here.

dtb
David
  • #1,273
  • Jan 11, 2007 11:18am Jan 11, 2007 11:18am
Quoting sandhockey
185 pips today. Good enough for me, I think I may go golfing.

ENORMOUS thanks to everyone, this thread has been instrumental in my learning.
I'm with you only, well, i'm in NJ and its too f-n cold.
Man who scratches ass should not bite fingernails
  • #1,274
  • Jan 11, 2007 11:21am Jan 11, 2007 11:21am
Quoting dberube
Monarch,

Great postings......

In the short-term you think it'll reach 1.9470 as the high then go down to 1.91?

David
I have several Fibo's marked on short term which has everything to do with the long term.

50% 1.9447
68.2% 1.9465

This should be completed this hour or possibly the next.

Price will prabably hang around and straddle these areas for the day, then we may expect another upwards movement to 1.9550 area, but not neccesarily by the technicals indications.

I am expecting downward to be the final stage played out here by end of the week, but probably the start of next week will be more likely.
  • #1,275
  • Jan 11, 2007 11:22am Jan 11, 2007 11:22am
slow stoch on 4hr is turning at overbought of bear range, once confirmed it should mark a nice down leg, but must turn soon as it is really testing the upper boundry of this range.
Man who scratches ass should not bite fingernails
  • #1,276
  • Jan 11, 2007 11:26am Jan 11, 2007 11:26am
Correction on Fibo were retracing now

Should have been
38.2 % 1.9447
50% 1.9465
  • #1,277
  • Jan 11, 2007 11:28am Jan 11, 2007 11:28am
Also positive reversal on the weekly and daily will still be vaild as long as 1.8957 is not violated ON A weekly closing basis. We still then have the possibility to move down, however I feel like this is slightly unlikely due to this recent rate hike. It was priced in in the future though so it will be interesting - trade what see not what think.
Man who scratches ass should not bite fingernails
  • #1,278
  • Jan 11, 2007 11:29am Jan 11, 2007 11:29am
I really just see us ranging between 9440 and 9400 now for a while.
Man who scratches ass should not bite fingernails
  • #1,279
  • Jan 11, 2007 11:31am Jan 11, 2007 11:31am
then again, we have strong positive reversal on 400 tick chart confirmed right now up to 9529 - This takes precedence but due to alot of conflicting factors, will use no leverage and take a stab.
Man who scratches ass should not bite fingernails
  • #1,280
  • Jan 11, 2007 11:41am Jan 11, 2007 11:41am
Quoting Leugimp
then again, we have strong positive reversal on 400 tick chart confirmed right now up to 9529 - This takes precedence but due to alot of conflicting factors, will use no leverage and take a stab.
Please guys,

I'm working with the same fibs and indicators here PLUS what I read in this thread... However, expectations like 91XX and 95XX kill me... We MAY see 91XX on next week, if I understand what Monarch has written.

Leugimp, your expecting 9525 in what time frame? hours, days or this is the opposite of what Monarch said?

I got pretty agressive stop here, expeting a drawdown an then down to 91XX... But I'd rather take that 100+ pips to 95XX and then down... What I cannot affor is having my SL triggered, actually...

This is just to put all of us in the same page here. Thanks.
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