COT trading system with free indicator 297 replies
SWAP free, rollover free Broker? 15 replies
DislikedHere is a trade unfolding. I first fibbed the hourly candle, then I went down to 15m and tried to find S/R.Ignored
DislikedI have my 15m fib from 207.74 to 209.45 - the spike high during the long consolidation in yesterdays NY session - that gives a 170 pip range.
I'm always walking my fib to take in the latest action - if its a narrower range then that just gives an earlier entry and tighter stop.
Also on the 15m if you put on a -1.0 gann line from Tuesdays high of 210.40 you'll see its held as resistance. This is THE most important gann angle and also has a 144 period time line in the 7:30am gmt bar - another important number.Ignored
DislikedWonderfull, I have just finished reading the PDF file someone in the thread compiled (thankyou), A great read and it seems this aproach to trading goes against some things I have held close to me as being true in Forex trading.
Fibs = Hocus Pocus
Stops must always be smaller than TP
Price can only be determined as it unfolds
But after mulling over some trades, Only trading in the Freefall space of the higher TF fibs, then taking setups from a Lower TF I see no reason to doubt.
Maby you have found the Lonely Snail?! Oh he will be so glad!, snails always look sad dont you think?
Thankyou to all contributers.
Also I see that the man of the hour (skunny) Is a supporter of an Autism charity. My brother works as a carer/manager in a house where he looks after some of the lads/aranges activities ect. Just a suggestion, But I feel we have received here so it would be nice to give a little if possible. Maby a pot donated in scunnys name to the charity of his choice. Of course we can wait for some of these lads to reach afew hundred K in their acounts first. Lol.
Thanks again everyone.
Ps. I stick to what I said earlier, and if things are realy as they seem, you are very brave for releasing this much info on a public forum. I have no idea of possible impact.Ignored
DislikedI just cant believe what i am seeing.
Skunny, here is my discovery since i have been trading vhands....for many many hours. Tell me if im on the right track...(fib line) lol. I remember reading someplace that currencies spend most of their time in consolidation.
Since currencies for the most part are in consolidation then what we want to look for is the breakouts of consolidation. I have discovered or i think i have discovered that is basically what we are doing is finding those key breakouts of consolidation,,,and what better way to do this than with fibs since they are one of the most reliable tools in our tool kit. If the range in consolidation is wide enough then we can drop down a time frame and scalp....from the inner fibs. KISS
The next piece to the puzzle isnt here yet because i havent read far enough in your forum, but you cant bet your bottom dollar i will ...I need to figure out where to draw the s and r lines, then i will have another great tool to work with. Thanks so much. You are the man.
Your generosity overwhelms me.
DislikedWell, I'm no expert, but
#1 Skunny said failed fibs are because of the fibber's error.
#2 Beware of false breakouts - could that be why the fib failed?
#3 Has price run it's course with a last try to breakout of the range or consolidation? Fib fails, showing you exhaustion, and leads you in the opposite direction.
#4 Could it be that there was a larger fib cycle that has dropped from your view that is actually completed?
Remember the inner fib is only one piece of the tool set.
Just my .382 cents worthIgnored
Dislikedlol, Im now thinking I must be trying to trade this different to some of you. That trade I took was by my rules which I gathered from what I have read, and it did not result in a profit.
I realise you are saying its a doji on the 1hr, but I fail to see how or why it is a good thing. Im stumped, give me a little push to understand what ur saying please.
DislikedWhat about the other .618...how to determine ahead of time. Any thoughts.Ignored
DislikedThere was nothing wrong with your fib - but it is a bit too optimistic to assume that once the breakout takes place, price will ALWAYS hit the next fib level. I'm sure that you can easily find numerous examples of such price behaviour, on any tf, especially on ranging markets.
When the puff behind a move dies out and trend changes, it just happens, regardless of the fact that the price did not quite hit the fib levels drawn in this way or that way.
Fibs, or any other indicator, can not forecast future price behaviour, it is only a tool for identifying possible targets, which then may or may not be met.
DislikedI made up a Trading Plan worksheet to help me keep my focus. It may be of help to some, and you can take it and adapt it to your style.
To be consistent you must Plan your Work/Trade, and Work/Trade your Plan. (old saying, but true)Ignored
DislikedShees, BarneyDog, the only clue I see that has some consistency is that if your inner fib's Targets are sitting inside the Major fibs DZ, and PA is making the higher highs/higher lows, or vice versa, toward that area stay alert. Not sure that is 61.8 cents worth though. Still keeping track to see if it is part of the moiler quail.Ignored
I know I'm posting three pages late into your question..............
I would fib the hrly bars zoomed out to the 15M for viewing purposes, and then trade off of the 5M charts inside of and keenly aware of the 1H/15M ranges from there.
You pip range is only 47 pips too???
I don't know about the EJ pair but.......I follow Islander's advise on the GBP/JPY and look for swing ranges of about 100 but no fewer than around 85 pips minimum to draw fibs from.
Also, if you were inclined......you may want to place two additional "AL" (23.6, 76.4) lines on your fibs to look for a tighter entry on the 5M trades.Ignored
DislikedIslander, I spent the whole evening last night with Cable, Geppy, and UJ all in mini format on my screen so I could watch all of them at the same time. What is the best scenario one would look for to see a strong surge on the Geppy? it looked to me that UJ had more of a direct correlation/impact on the Geppy than Cable itself did. Maybe you can clarify for me???
OK - the basics - GBP/JPY is the cross of GBPUSD and USDJPY....so
to get the value for GBPJPY we multiply GBPUSD by USDJPY - viz:
from the prices just now 1.9430 X 107.55 = 208.97
If you play around with this you soon find that when GBPUSD moves 1 pip, so does GBPJPY. But when USDJPY moves 1 pip, GBPJPY moves 2 pips.
So, depending on the combined directions of GU and UJ, their effect on GJ can be 1,2 or 3 pips.
For this reason I have small GU and UJ charts up to see which is "driving" GJ where they are ref. IFibs, pivots etc.
Edit: PS nice work getting out of your loosing position with a profit - I guess that you too have been reading the AOW and FTI's teachings!Ignored
DislikedI now understand what Skunny has been talking about. I have not been able to stop thinking about this thread since I started reading it on Tuesday night. I stayed up for two days (thats right, no sleep!) trying to figure this out and retrading using vhands. I thought I had it last night/this morning but I didn't and I was exhausted. I went to bed finally and woke up this afternoon ran some errands and got right back on it with a fresh mind and a pair of eyes. As I was looking at the chart and trying to remember all of Skunny's little riddles - I SAW IT!! IT HIT ME LIKE A TON OF BRICKS!!! I couldn't believe it is so simple yet it has taken hundreds if not thousands of hours of pouring over charts for the last 3 years and I have also devoted the last 7 months full time to this endeavor and there it is right in front of me this whole time. If not for Skunny I would still be looking. Now understand what he means when he says you can be in a trade and never get out!! Also, you can trade at 100% unless the human element fails. I now also understand why the people that finally get it do not give it out. It is a journey and what a wild ride it has been. This is life changing. I would like to thank Skunny and wish him the best. I owe him, I do not know what, but I still owe him.
I hope I got this right or else I will look like a fool to all of you after this post.
Thanks to all of you and especially Skunny!
Thank you. Let me say that when you get it you won't be able to believe the simplicity. IMHO you also won't believe that more people don't have the key. I guess we all learn and view things differently and at our own pace. You need to watch PA and what it does. There is a pattern. You also need to re-read the thread and the pdf file with the hints. They are there in plain site. He gave us the tools (not indicators) in this thread. Start with an open mind and delete all indicators off your chart and watch price movement.
This naked trading is tough, I am having problems taking my skivvies off. Its the cold time of year in these parts.Ignored