Daily Stochastic Oscillator System (#2) | Forex Factory

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Daily Stochastic Oscillator System (#2)

  • #1
  • First Post: Edited 5:57pm Feb 7, 2008 3:40pm | Edited 5:57pm
This is a NEW thread in continuation of the old one (which is now closed) located at: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=64773

There were many significant changes with EA version 1.4 and chose to open a new thread.
===================================

Goal: To average 100pips per day (500/wk) via an Expert Advisor

Setup:

  1. Start monitoring for trades at 10:00 GMT
  2. GBP/JPY only at this time due to volitility
  3. 1hr chart with Stochastic Oscillator (7,5,5,High/Low,Simple)
  4. SMA 12 and SMA 24 (SMA's will be read by flipping to the 30min chart)
  5. Only 1 trade per day

Entry: 60min Stoch - when Stoch line is ABOVE the signal line, then flip to 30min chart - if SMA 12 is above SMA 24 conditions are right for a BUY. Opposite on both indicators would indicate a SELL.

Exit: 30min chart - If SMA 12 crosses the SMA 24 in the opposite direction, it would indicate an exit. (NOTE: this is how the AutoClose=true feature works, otherwise an exit would be determined by your StopLoss, TakeProfit or TrailingStop.

NOTE: The trade will only attempt to open 1 trade per day at 10:00 GMT (or shortly after - if signal is not triggered at 10:00 GMT it will keep looking then enter when conditions are right. Normally by 10:00 GMT there is enough of a trend for the signal to kick in. If you wish to FORCE the EA to between 10:00-23:59 GMT, just REMOVE the expert and ADD it back to the chart. This will reset the flag and allow another trade to occur.

Performance (using default settings):

Trading Journal: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=69168

EA v1.4 Backtesting Detail: http://26z.net/forex/5.htm

Backtesting Period: 7/1/2007-12/31/2007
Begining Balance: $5,000
Net Profit: $28,328.99
Profit Trades: 79.38%
Absolute Drawdown: $669.95

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 5.gif Size: 5 KB
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 Daily100_v1.4.mq4   7 KB | 3,006 downloads
  • #2
  • Feb 7, 2008 3:48pm Feb 7, 2008 3:48pm
Did anyone get the same entry and result today? the v1.4 EA bought @ 209.18 at 19:00 GMT and was stopped out @ 208.43. It's on the IBFX platform.

Only need to make sure that the EA on my platform is right and match the result with others.
  • #3
  • Edited 7:35pm Feb 7, 2008 4:17pm | Edited 7:35pm
By changing your risk reward from 1.6:1 (SL=75;TP=120) to 2:1 (SL=75; TP=150) you lower the max DD significantly.

Note: I tested all of 2007 and used MM and risked 2%.

Backtesting Period: 01/01/2007-01/31/2008
Begining Balance: $10,000
Net Profit: $2,312.08 / 23%
Profit Trades: 63.37%
Absolute Drawdown: $938.77 / 9%
Historical Data: Alpari
TimeFreedom
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Daily100_GBPJPY_01.gif Size: 7 KB
Attached File(s)
File Type: zip Daily100.zip   20 KB | 1,195 downloads
  • #4
  • Feb 7, 2008 5:41pm Feb 7, 2008 5:41pm
v1.4 with MoneyManagement=True and the rest default settings.

The Risk=10 was set that way because there is such low draw down with this EA.

Jul-Dec 2007 Backtest w/MM: http://26z.net/forex/6.htm

Risk: 10%
Absolute Drawdown: $336
Profit: $59,610

No matter what we do, backtesting is optimized to give the ideal results for the period tested - forward testing can do anything.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 6.gif Size: 6 KB
  • #5
  • Feb 7, 2008 6:46pm Feb 7, 2008 6:46pm
Hey Neal

Very good system...but I was wondering what would be different in the East Coast America (New York) settings. Thanks.
  • #6
  • Feb 7, 2008 7:02pm Feb 7, 2008 7:02pm
Quoting vovan15
Hey Neal

Very good system...but I was wondering what would be different in the East Coast America (New York) settings. Thanks.
Time setting depends on your broker.

FINDING YOUR BROKER OFFSET FROM GMT

Go to: http://fxtrade.oanda.com/resources/fxmarkethours/
Set the time zone to GMT,WET
Observe the current GMT time (right below where you selected from the drop down menu)

Now in your MetaTrader look at the "Market Watch" window (top left window) which has the different rates ticking away. Your brokers time is at the top of that window.

If GMT says 01:00 and your broker says 03:00 then you have a +2 offset

If GMT says 01:00 and your broker says 00:00 then you have a -1 offset

You would add/subtract the offset from the StartHr setting of 10:00 to give you the correct EA start time.
  • #7
  • Feb 7, 2008 7:14pm Feb 7, 2008 7:14pm
Neal

I was +1 offset, I fixed it. Thanks.
I will post my results for testing your system through out.
  • #8
  • Feb 7, 2008 7:28pm Feb 7, 2008 7:28pm
Your DD is low for 5 months, but what about for the entire year of 2007?

TimeFreedom

Quoting nealc99
v1.4 with MoneyManagement=True and the rest default settings.

The Risk=10 was set that way because there is such low draw down with this EA.

Jul-Dec 2007 Backtest w/MM: http://26z.net/forex/6.htm

Risk: 10%
Absolute Drawdown: $336
Profit: $59,610

No matter what we do, backtesting is optimized to give the ideal results for the period tested - forward testing can do anything.
  • #9
  • Feb 7, 2008 7:52pm Feb 7, 2008 7:52pm
Quoting TimeFreedom
Your DD is low for 5 months, but what about for the entire year of 2007?

TimeFreedom
Yes, I would llike to see a back test of all 2007 since the first 6 months was tougher than the last 6 months. A 2006 back test would really give us some info on how this system can hold up since this was a tough year when many systems went belly up. But anyway. Thank you Neal for this opportunity. I will foward test the new EA as well as v1.2. Paris
  • #10
  • Feb 7, 2008 10:46pm Feb 7, 2008 10:46pm
I think this is very interesting and wonderful system.

But I'm confused for the change(varible versions)

From now no use of Solar wind or silvertrend..etc

Can you show me your MT4 captured file

or upload the template file?
  • #11
  • Feb 8, 2008 1:35am Feb 8, 2008 1:35am
one year period janury 2007 to december 2007

Absolute drawdown3795.56Maximal drawdown21165.83 (21.43%)Relative drawdown64.91% (11476.37)

Profit trades (% of total)129 (72.88%)Loss trades (% of total)48 (27.12%)
i dont know how to paste the detail analysis here. can somebody teach me how.
also how do i calculate drawdown from the figures above. or which is my absolute drawdown. and what is the difference between absolute and maximal drawdown. and also relative drawdown
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: one year(10% risk).gif Size: 6 KB
  • #12
  • Feb 8, 2008 4:08am Feb 8, 2008 4:08am
can any one backtest in first of2008 to now?
  • #13
  • Feb 8, 2008 5:50am Feb 8, 2008 5:50am
I use IBFX demo account(it's GMT)

2.8 10:00 gbpjpy

10:00 buy @209.74 -> 11:10 SL @208.99

result -69.91 $
  • #14
  • Feb 8, 2008 6:38am Feb 8, 2008 6:38am
Working on more refinements:

1) Trade intelegently more than once a day
2) Base testing on full year of 2007 (rather than just the last 6 mon - first of year was rougher)
3) Revamping the trading logic

To do list for refinements:

1) Work on logic to take advantage of retracement trades for periods of medium-large moves

Outcome: To do as well or better than v1.4 and try to maintain a low Drawdown and high win percentage (goal is to stay above 70%).
  • #15
  • Feb 9, 2008 12:23am Feb 9, 2008 12:23am
Quoting nealc99
This is a NEW thread in continuation of the old one (which is now closed) located at: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=64773

There were many significant changes with EA version 1.4 and chose to open a new thread.
===================================

Goal: To average 100pips per day (500/wk) via an Expert Advisor

Setup:

  1. Start monitoring for trades at 10:00 GMT
  2. GBP/JPY only at this time due to volitility
  3. 1hr chart with Stochastic Oscillator (7,5,5,High/Low,Simple)
  4. SMA 12 and SMA 24 (SMA's will be read by flipping to the 30min chart)
  5. Only 1 trade per day

Entry: 60min Stoch - when Stoch line is ABOVE the signal line, then flip to 30min chart - if SMA 12 is above SMA 24 conditions are right for a BUY. Opposite on both indicators would indicate a SELL.

Exit: 30min chart - If SMA 12 crosses the SMA 24 in the opposite direction, it would indicate an exit. (NOTE: this is how the AutoClose=true feature works, otherwise an exit would be determined by your StopLoss, TakeProfit or TrailingStop.

NOTE: The trade will only attempt to open 1 trade per day at 10:00 GMT (or shortly after - if signal is not triggered at 10:00 GMT it will keep looking then enter when conditions are right. Normally by 10:00 GMT there is enough of a trend for the signal to kick in. If you wish to FORCE the EA to between 10:00-23:59 GMT, just REMOVE the expert and ADD it back to the chart. This will reset the flag and allow another trade to occur.

Performance (using default settings):

Trading Journal: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=69168

EA v1.4 Backtesting Detail: http://26z.net/forex/5.htm

Backtesting Period: 7/1/2007-12/31/2007
Begining Balance: $5,000
Net Profit: $28,328.99
Profit Trades: 79.38%
Absolute Drawdown: $669.95


Should the close order daily be set to true in using this EA?
Thanks
  • #16
  • Feb 9, 2008 2:39am Feb 9, 2008 2:39am
Quoting aelimian
Should the close order daily be set to true in using this EA?
Thanks
Optional.... FALSE will give you much better performance.
  • #17
  • Feb 11, 2008 12:52am Feb 11, 2008 12:52am
Yes, I've been slaving away on version 1.5 all weekend. Have made some progress, but quite a bit more polishing to do yet.

Backtesting of Jan 2008: http://26z.net/forex/7.htm

Win ratio: 72%
Profit: $5,553.66
Absolute Drawdown: $694.79

Have to find a filter or some other mechinisum to lower or weed out the losses.

Oh, by the way, this is 100% controled by the EA. No StopLoss, no TakeProfit, no TrailingStop, no BreakEven - just raw EA brain power.

It is trading between 10:00-19:00 daily.
  • #18
  • Feb 11, 2008 6:46am Feb 11, 2008 6:46am
Quoting nealc99
Yes, I've been slaving away on version 1.5 all weekend. Have made some progress, but quite a bit more polishing to do yet.

Backtesting of Jan 2008: http://26z.net/forex/7.htm

Win ratio: 72%
Profit: $5,553.66
Absolute Drawdown: $694.79

Have to find a filter or some other mechinisum to lower or weed out the losses.

Oh, by the way, this is 100% controled by the EA. No StopLoss, no TakeProfit, no TrailingStop, no BreakEven - just raw EA brain power.

It is trading between 10:00-19:00 daily.
Thanks for all your hard work. I thought I would give it a try. No trades so far today.

Cheers,

Damon
"Keep your eyes on the helpers" - Mr. Rogers
  • #19
  • Feb 11, 2008 7:39am Feb 11, 2008 7:39am
Just for grins I thought I would test v1.5 on USD/JPY pair to see what happened.

Keep in mind I haven't fixed the logic which is prematurely taking it out of a trade or the logic to fix getting out of a bad trade eariler.

USD/JPY

Backtesting - Jan 2008: http://26z.net/forex/8.htm

Profit: $2,218.95
Win Percentage: 73.91%
Absolute Drawdown: $2,215

The purpose of this test was to see if the EA will be able to be used on other pairs (without any alterations), and obviously it may be likley.

NOTE: Ignore the settings at the top of the report - not using any of those variables, just haven't cleaned up the EA yet and removed them.
  • #20
  • Feb 11, 2008 11:02am Feb 11, 2008 11:02am
What timeframe should be in the chart?

Or the EA can auto adjust the entry ?
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