DislikedHere is one that has been easy money all last year.. WMT off weekly range.. Buy low 40's sell 45-47..Ignored
Check Mate GAME OVER
- #41
- Nov 14, 2007 9:42pm Nov 14, 2007 9:42pm
- | Joined Aug 2007 | Status: Trader | 1,196 Posts
Check Mate GAME OVER
- #42
- Nov 14, 2007 9:46pm Nov 14, 2007 9:46pm
- | Joined Aug 2007 | Status: Trader | 1,196 Posts
Check Mate GAME OVER
- #43
- Edited 10:23am Dec 20, 2007 10:05am | Edited 10:23am
- Joined Sep 2006 | Status: Trader | 2,272 Posts
its just money
- #44
- Jan 10, 2008 2:19pm Jan 10, 2008 2:19pm
- Joined Sep 2006 | Status: Trader | 2,272 Posts
closed gfi too early, but longed today ACH dam cheap, i guess, low R:R trade, PTR on radar, missed a good entry price,...go china go...
its just money
- #45
- Feb 7, 2008 1:52pm Feb 7, 2008 1:52pm
- | Joined Aug 2007 | Status: Trader | 1,196 Posts
Check Mate GAME OVER
- #46
- Feb 7, 2008 9:15pm Feb 7, 2008 9:15pm
- | Joined Aug 2007 | Status: Trader | 1,196 Posts
Check Mate GAME OVER
Wonder what is up with da banks as of late?
What’s Wells Fargo Worth?
There’s a lot of arguing going on these days as to whether banks are secret deals or toxic treats. You can see this dichotomy in the price action of Wells Fargo (WFC: NYSE): One of the brethren confesses to another billion or two in hidden debts, and shares sink $10. Washington announces more “free money,” and WFC puts the same 10 bills back on.
Technically speaking, WFC’s current daily chart is calling for a retest of its January lows at or around $24.38. But the question you should really ask is not “Are these guys worth $40 or $20?”
Rather, you should ask, “What is a bank like this really worth?”
It’s really not all that hard to find out. Just take away the real estate bubble from them, and what are you left with?
In the case of Wells Fargo, free toasters, free checking and $8.88 a share.
Without the income stream provided by mortgages, refinancing, home-based lines of credit, and credit cards, these guys are fish in a dry stream. It’s just a question of how to take advantage of the situation.
You could simply short them, and eventually you might make anywhere from 30% to 60% gains. Or you could purchase select put options and make 100%-plus gains on each and every intermediate step down.
Shweet!
Carpe Divitiae
Here's some more food for thought for those that also trade stocks.
I've been a partner and member of this analysis/publishing service for about 6-years and have traded along blow for blow with pretty much every one of their recommendations, as well as my own TA/FA on the stocks in question, because, as with any "service", you don't just blindly pull the trigger on their reco, do you?
I can say though, that they are pretty much on the money 9/10 times, so this got me sitting up and paying attention.
I have been out of a couple of these for a while based on my own appetite for risk etc. but, either a total flush from your portfolio's or some aggressive collars are required here in the near- to long-term, if you are holding any of these.
Portfolio Poison #1: Financial Stocks
US banks are still hiding the depth of their billion dollar mistakes in sub-prime lending and mortgage derivatives. Not only that, but when you back out the "profits" they booked for years while ignoring the ever mounting risks, these companies would look far less attractive.
If you are holding these three banks, they should be immediately purged from your portfolio:
Toxic Bank #1: CitiGroup (C:NYSE)
Abu Dhabi wasn't quite the white knight every one is making them out to be. In fact, the interest rate they are charging for that $7 billion cash infusion would embarrass Tony Soprano, and will cost share holders dearly come payback time. Also, as of early November, Wall Street players were shorting Citi to the tune of some 84.85 million shares (in essence, betting that Citi would fall). By early December, the vultures had jacked that figure up some 24% to 104.87 million shares short.
Toxic Bank #2: Bank of America (BAC:NYSE)
What happens when you back derivative gains out of the picture? The country's biggest bank just owned up to a whopping 27.3% loss in sales growth in the last quarter of 2007. In fact, the same year that saw BAC shares hit repeated all-time highs also saw the company rack up a sales loss of 6.2% for the year and a downside earnings surprise of 22% in December.
Toxic Bank #3: Wachovia (WB:NYSE)
This regional player may never truly recover from the housing crash. Growth estimates for the current quarter are -73.1%, -20.8% for next quarter, and -20.9% for the year. Since October, every single covering broker has downgraded WB shares, including Citigroup, who as recently as November still thought WB was a buy.
Portfolio Poison #2: Retail Stocks
It isn't just banks that will be wiped out. Retail stocks could tumble and be just as dangerous to your portfolio. Sell these stocks now.
Retail Toxin #1: Kohl's (KSS:NYSE)
There is nothing Kohl's can do for shoppers that Target or WalMart can't do better. Savvy investors know this; as a result, almost 4% of Kohl's shares are in the hands of short players.
Retail Toxin #2: Home Depot (HD:NYSE)
Bob Nardelli had mistaken an amazing run-up in housing for native intelligence. Take away that bubble and HD is overexposed in hundreds of markets, with too many stores overstocked with low quality products.
Retail Toxin #3: General Motors (GM:NYSE)
Even Toyota is worried about US sales. But GM -- sliding before the recession -- fantasizes that they can hold even in 2008. They are dead wrong: flat will look like up by the third quarter.
Portfolio Poison #3:Tech Stocks
The tech sector will probably suffer the worst losses. Call your broker right now and tell him to dump these stocks before they ruin your portfolio:
Tech Stock Toxin #1: Microsoft (MSFT:NASDAQ)
Bill Gates is abandoning the ship, and with good reason: in 2007, this software behemoth displayed all the agility and innovative spirit of a fossilized dinosaur. Its primary product, the Vista operating system, was late, buggy and five years behind the times. For their next act, they want to pry their way into your car.
Tech Stock Toxin #2: Intel (INTC:NASDAQ)
Sony chief Howard Stringer said it best: "The fourth quarter is full of strange, unanswerable situations related to unemployment, related to GDP, related to everything else." He's not the only one who's fretting. In fact, the word is out all over the floor at the Las Vegas Consumer Electronics Show: the last thing anyone wants to do in a recession is spend on new computers.
Tech Stock Toxin #3: Dell (DELL:NASDAQ)
When everyone else was setting new share price highs in 2007, this former powerhouse set a new moral low: It is a $48 billion company that managed to get itself de-listed by NASDAQ. And that was before the big market crash.
If you don't act fast to get your investment dollars out of these sectors and companies, it may take years, even decades to rebound from your losses.
I've been a partner and member of this analysis/publishing service for about 6-years and have traded along blow for blow with pretty much every one of their recommendations, as well as my own TA/FA on the stocks in question, because, as with any "service", you don't just blindly pull the trigger on their reco, do you?
I can say though, that they are pretty much on the money 9/10 times, so this got me sitting up and paying attention.
I have been out of a couple of these for a while based on my own appetite for risk etc. but, either a total flush from your portfolio's or some aggressive collars are required here in the near- to long-term, if you are holding any of these.
Portfolio Poison #1: Financial Stocks
US banks are still hiding the depth of their billion dollar mistakes in sub-prime lending and mortgage derivatives. Not only that, but when you back out the "profits" they booked for years while ignoring the ever mounting risks, these companies would look far less attractive.
If you are holding these three banks, they should be immediately purged from your portfolio:
Toxic Bank #1: CitiGroup (C:NYSE)
Abu Dhabi wasn't quite the white knight every one is making them out to be. In fact, the interest rate they are charging for that $7 billion cash infusion would embarrass Tony Soprano, and will cost share holders dearly come payback time. Also, as of early November, Wall Street players were shorting Citi to the tune of some 84.85 million shares (in essence, betting that Citi would fall). By early December, the vultures had jacked that figure up some 24% to 104.87 million shares short.
Toxic Bank #2: Bank of America (BAC:NYSE)
What happens when you back derivative gains out of the picture? The country's biggest bank just owned up to a whopping 27.3% loss in sales growth in the last quarter of 2007. In fact, the same year that saw BAC shares hit repeated all-time highs also saw the company rack up a sales loss of 6.2% for the year and a downside earnings surprise of 22% in December.
Toxic Bank #3: Wachovia (WB:NYSE)
This regional player may never truly recover from the housing crash. Growth estimates for the current quarter are -73.1%, -20.8% for next quarter, and -20.9% for the year. Since October, every single covering broker has downgraded WB shares, including Citigroup, who as recently as November still thought WB was a buy.
Portfolio Poison #2: Retail Stocks
It isn't just banks that will be wiped out. Retail stocks could tumble and be just as dangerous to your portfolio. Sell these stocks now.
Retail Toxin #1: Kohl's (KSS:NYSE)
There is nothing Kohl's can do for shoppers that Target or WalMart can't do better. Savvy investors know this; as a result, almost 4% of Kohl's shares are in the hands of short players.
Retail Toxin #2: Home Depot (HD:NYSE)
Bob Nardelli had mistaken an amazing run-up in housing for native intelligence. Take away that bubble and HD is overexposed in hundreds of markets, with too many stores overstocked with low quality products.
Retail Toxin #3: General Motors (GM:NYSE)
Even Toyota is worried about US sales. But GM -- sliding before the recession -- fantasizes that they can hold even in 2008. They are dead wrong: flat will look like up by the third quarter.
Portfolio Poison #3:Tech Stocks
The tech sector will probably suffer the worst losses. Call your broker right now and tell him to dump these stocks before they ruin your portfolio:
Tech Stock Toxin #1: Microsoft (MSFT:NASDAQ)
Bill Gates is abandoning the ship, and with good reason: in 2007, this software behemoth displayed all the agility and innovative spirit of a fossilized dinosaur. Its primary product, the Vista operating system, was late, buggy and five years behind the times. For their next act, they want to pry their way into your car.
Tech Stock Toxin #2: Intel (INTC:NASDAQ)
Sony chief Howard Stringer said it best: "The fourth quarter is full of strange, unanswerable situations related to unemployment, related to GDP, related to everything else." He's not the only one who's fretting. In fact, the word is out all over the floor at the Las Vegas Consumer Electronics Show: the last thing anyone wants to do in a recession is spend on new computers.
Tech Stock Toxin #3: Dell (DELL:NASDAQ)
When everyone else was setting new share price highs in 2007, this former powerhouse set a new moral low: It is a $48 billion company that managed to get itself de-listed by NASDAQ. And that was before the big market crash.
If you don't act fast to get your investment dollars out of these sectors and companies, it may take years, even decades to rebound from your losses.
Carpe Divitiae
- #50
- Feb 27, 2008 9:28pm Feb 27, 2008 9:28pm
- Joined Mar 2006 | Status: Trade the reaction not the news! | 10,359 Posts
And then what happened to AT&T Wireless. It was sold to Cingular which is now called AT&T. The more things change, the more things stay the same.
The regular joe like me, usually waits for the historic retrace that hits every IPO, and I'll try and position for the longer-term trend if I'm going to be holding stock.
Else ride along with calls/puts as required.
Bit like the forex.
Carpe Divitiae
- #52
- Feb 27, 2008 9:54pm Feb 27, 2008 9:54pm
- Joined Mar 2006 | Status: Trade the reaction not the news! | 10,359 Posts
- #53
- Feb 27, 2008 10:00pm Feb 27, 2008 10:00pm
- Joined Mar 2006 | Status: Trade the reaction not the news! | 10,359 Posts
- #54
- Edited 11:29pm Feb 27, 2008 10:18pm | Edited 11:29pm
On first look at these picks I think I disagree with almost all of what they are expecting.
One example being:
DELL 20.77, +0.29, +1.4%) is expected to report fourth-quarter earnings of 36 cents a share, according to analysts surveyed by FactSet Research.
Even if they were delisted (?) for a short while, it is immaterial now if they are still profitable and have corrected their earlier problems.
Many of these stocks have already had big down moves in their prices. Sure they can go lower but realistically look at another example HD which has an alltime high of $70 and is presently at $28.91 with major longterm support at $20. Can it go down there, of course. But based on current earnings estimates that would give it a PE of 8. Hmmm.
We are in strange times in the markets to say the least. I'm not too surprised by anything lately.
:And I'm nuts enough to have posted $8.88 on Wells just a few posts above...
Carpe Divitiae
- #56
- Feb 28, 2008 8:50pm Feb 28, 2008 8:50pm
- Joined Mar 2006 | Status: Trade the reaction not the news! | 10,359 Posts
I almost completely trade based on TA and only occasionalky look at the fundamentals and so as far as oil goes I watch NYMEX and the price at the pump.
But my opinion of these three are that the chart is not looking pretty. All in downtrend and amazingly in lockstep. What I do notice (might be hard to see on my pic) is that HOC is presently above its 89 XMA, but it looks like it might want to fill the gap from two weeks ago before possibly moving higher.
In EW count looks (might be a bit of a educated guess though) 2/26/08 was a wave 4 of wave C high, so if this is right a wave 5 of wave C could be coming shortly. Then the move higher, much higher with a new 5 wave impulse. This is on VLO, don't have time to look the other two over.
But until I see price confirmation I don't like 'em.
I've pretty much dismissed the others, for now, too. But I think they will play catchup eventually, as you pointed out, their very much in step, in this sector as a whole.
Everybody chewing their bit of fat off the commodities.
This raises my next one...
:. Fill it to where?It's a $2 gap-up from $48. Now that's a gap. And that bump up, broke it out of a fairly flat price channel, Donchanian-esque almost
.I'd probably play it to the upside anywhere from 50-bucks. And apply the collar frequently and tightly. Although, it could hit $48 again if it really wanted to fill it.
{That almost sounds perverse...}
As for the whole EW thing, I can't really comment or add to that, I'm not a very good wave counter at all! But appreciate the insight also! I may just get educated along the way too.
Carpe Divitiae
- #58
- Feb 29, 2008 12:19pm Feb 29, 2008 12:19pm
- | Joined Aug 2007 | Status: Trader | 1,196 Posts
Check Mate GAME OVER
- #59
- Feb 29, 2008 12:31pm Feb 29, 2008 12:31pm
- | Joined Aug 2007 | Status: Trader | 1,196 Posts
Check Mate GAME OVER
- #60
- Feb 29, 2008 12:40pm Feb 29, 2008 12:40pm
- | Joined Aug 2007 | Status: Trader | 1,196 Posts
Check Mate GAME OVER