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Cesarnc's market talk, gossips, rumours & fun

  • #4,541
  • Feb 7, 2008 12:31pm Feb 7, 2008 12:31pm
Quoting Ash
Oh, well, sell on the rallies.
Oh I didn't have any positions go against me because of news. I'm just ranting about the quality they put out.

  • #4,542
  • Feb 7, 2008 12:49pm Feb 7, 2008 12:49pm
Quoting Ash
Oh, well, sell on the rallies.
12285-12290 should cap the market today. I seriously doubt we close above that mark and if we do maintain above there tomorrow, then I'll change my sell all rally stance.

I'd enter a short at 12280-85 if I had the free margin to do so. But watch me jinx the trade just by saying that.
  • #4,543
  • Feb 7, 2008 1:05pm Feb 7, 2008 1:05pm
Quoting SunTrader
Just one more reason why I don't f*^#ing care what the news media has to say:

[FT] US stocks were set to fall sharply on Thursday after Cisco's downbeat outlook added to concerns about the outlook for corporate tech spending and Wal-Mart's January sales proved a big disappointment. Jobless claims meanwhile declined less than expected.

+ + +

They are clueless and not just lately too.

NY markets then proceeded to rally.
Cisco disappointed, Walmart disappointed, Unemployment claims disappointed, Pending home sales disappointed, and a Fed President said that they may not be able to keep bailing out the economy with rate cuts due to inflation.

So it's just logical that the rally monkeys would come out in full force right?

I used to think fundamental analysis was useful, but in reality it can and will ruin your account. The only thing fundamental about these markets is supply and demand. After that, it's all trader psychology and staying one move ahead of your opponent (the people trading billions, not thousands like the majority of us retail traders).
  • #4,544
  • Feb 7, 2008 1:12pm Feb 7, 2008 1:12pm
Fukin Yen. Thats all I got to say.
Just Trade It
  • #4,545
  • Feb 7, 2008 1:25pm Feb 7, 2008 1:25pm
Quoting SunTrader
Oh I didn't have any positions go against me because of news. I'm just ranting about the quality they put out.

Same here. I was short on GJ from 208.83. Got out at 240+.
Humble Lifetime Member
  • #4,546
  • Feb 7, 2008 1:28pm Feb 7, 2008 1:28pm
Quoting youalreadykn
12285-12290 should cap the market today. I seriously doubt we close above that mark and if we do maintain above there tomorrow, then I'll change my sell all rally stance.

I'd enter a short at 12280-85 if I had the free margin to do so. But watch me jinx the trade just by saying that.
SOB Market. No fundamental reason to move up. Did I miss something?
Humble Lifetime Member
  • #4,547
  • Feb 7, 2008 1:33pm Feb 7, 2008 1:33pm
Quoting Ash
SOB Market. No fundamental reason to move up. Did I miss something?
Wish I had the free margin to make that short earlier.... but that's a good summary.

SOB market didn't cost me anything in real money terms since I closed most positions last night during the Asian when the Nikkei went positive. Today actually helped the IRA a bit so guess I can't complain too much, even if it's senseless pumping and dumping.
  • #4,548
  • Feb 7, 2008 1:35pm Feb 7, 2008 1:35pm
Quoting Ash
SOB Market. No fundamental reason to move up. Did I miss something?
Trichet signaled rate cuts possible in Europe. Maybe, maybe, that will provide us some direction for the currencies. When Fed stop cutting and ECB start cutting.

On stock market-related pairs, my only call is that Dow is yet to put a lower low. No super fancy fundamental reason, just lack of buyers to sustain more than 2 days gains.
  • #4,549
  • Feb 7, 2008 1:39pm Feb 7, 2008 1:39pm
Quoting youalreadykn
Wish I had the free margin to make that short earlier.... but that's a good summary.

SOB market didn't cost me anything in real money terms since I closed most positions last night during the Asian when the Nikkei went positive. Today actually helped the IRA a bit so guess I can't complain too much, even if it's senseless pumping and dumping.
I shorted GJ this morning during the London Session when I got the signal. Was up over 300 when I noticed the market turning bullish. Got out with 240 but pissed me off. I am thankful for what I have but the markets pissed me off because I can't find any reason for this rally.
Humble Lifetime Member
  • #4,550
  • Feb 7, 2008 1:43pm Feb 7, 2008 1:43pm
Quoting cesarnc
Trichet signaled rate cuts possible in Europe. Maybe, maybe, that will provide us some direction for the currencies. When Fed stop cutting and ECB start cutting.

On stock market-related pairs, my only call is that Dow is yet to put a lower low. No super fancy fundamental reason, just lack of buyers to sustain more than 2 days gains.
I hear you but it pisses me off when my analysis goes wrong. I trade on fundamentals using technicals for entries and exits. There was no fundamental reason for the US Stock market to go up with the majority of retailers reposting disappointing results.
Humble Lifetime Member
  • #4,551
  • Feb 7, 2008 1:46pm Feb 7, 2008 1:46pm
Quoting Ash
I hear you but it pisses me off when my analysis goes wrong. I trade on fundamentals using technicals for entries and exits. There was no fundamental reason for the US Stock market to go up with the majority of retailers reposting disappointing results.
I agree, but hey, I'm bitching about this market for a long time here. I just can't get how a +80 mid-session turns into -150 or a -600 futures turns to +300 session.

Dow today: -50, +50, -50, +50, +80. Now 0%. My take for the close: +100 or -100, 50/50, flip the coin.

Dow tomorrow: will close between +300 and -300, 60% sure. That's how far I dare going for a 24h projection
Sucks....
  • #4,552
  • Feb 7, 2008 1:47pm Feb 7, 2008 1:47pm
Quoting Ash
I hear you but it pisses me off when my analysis goes wrong. I trade on fundamentals using technicals for entries and exits. There was no fundamental reason for the US Stock market to go up with the majority of retailers reposting disappointing results.
Sure there was, because the fed fund futures are pricing in a intra meeting cut.
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #4,553
  • Feb 7, 2008 1:49pm Feb 7, 2008 1:49pm
Quoting Ash
I shorted GJ this morning during the London Session when I got the signal. Was up over 300 when I noticed the market turning bullish. Got out with 240 but pissed me off. I am thankful for what I have but the markets pissed me off because I can't find any reason for this rally.
Same reason for every rally in the last week it seems.. pump and dump. Sell the rallies still lives, Dow from 12330 to 12180 in 30 minutes. 12885 is still the key level for today.
  • #4,554
  • Feb 7, 2008 1:49pm Feb 7, 2008 1:49pm
Oh, and one more thing: Dow decoupled from NASDAQ and S&P today, just to spice it up a notch
  • #4,555
  • Feb 7, 2008 1:52pm Feb 7, 2008 1:52pm
Quoting cesarnc
Oh, and one more thing: Dow decoupled from NASDAQ and S&P today, just to spice it up a notch
Thanks. I noticed that today.
Humble Lifetime Member
  • #4,556
  • Feb 7, 2008 1:52pm Feb 7, 2008 1:52pm
Quoting Ash
I hear you but it pisses me off when my analysis goes wrong. I trade on fundamentals using technicals for entries and exits. There was no fundamental reason for the US Stock market to go up with the majority of retailers reposting disappointing results.

Pablo came through with some more coke, I should of said something but I didn't think it would start a rally until tomorrow. They must have been really desperate since 62 people were arrested by the F.B.I in NY and Italy in a Mafia sting.
Just Trade It
  • #4,557
  • Feb 7, 2008 1:52pm Feb 7, 2008 1:52pm
Quoting DutchTrader
Sure there was, because the fed fund futures are pricing in a intra meeting cut.
Fed funds futures went negative on the day during the rally to the peak, which preceded the usual selloff.
  • #4,558
  • Feb 7, 2008 1:54pm Feb 7, 2008 1:54pm
Quoting youalreadykn
Fed funds futures went negative on the day during the rally to the peak, which preceded the usual selloff.
Figures. I was watching CNBC earlier before I went to class and the CME guy said they were pricing in a future cut.
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
  • #4,559
  • Feb 7, 2008 1:55pm Feb 7, 2008 1:55pm
Quoting Big Wave Rider
Pablo came through with some more coke, I should of said something but I didn't think it would start a rally until tomorrow. They must have been really desperate since 62 people were arrested by the F.B.I in NY and Italy in a Mafia sting.
I guess they started early.
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  • #4,560
  • Feb 7, 2008 2:03pm Feb 7, 2008 2:03pm
Here comes the last hour selloff
Patience + Humility + Study = Success
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