TickerShuffle's Trading Journal

Long here on fundamentals. Consumer Confidence news play.

Consumer confidence better that expected trade closed flat....although EUR showed brief strength.

I'll wait for 1.4706 20 SMA test.

Further notes: Retail sales for January are likely to be very strong on gift card redemptions, so there is likely to be some EUR selling and "facade" USD strength through febreuary, March however I foresee reality setting back in.

Have to avoid this pair, going to focus on AUDCAD, or perhaps AUDNZD, keep the USD out of the mix - if possible.

looking for decent move here...if I can remain patient and let her get back to .91 ish

not too sure about the long term strength on this position. I'll take my pips for the day.

I think I might head to Atlantic City and play Craps tonight instead.

1.4884 and 1.6707 SL respectively.

Just feeling like people might want to take profit on EURO for a couple weeks. Lot of longs out there looking to lock in profits after the 1.50 dream never materialized.

Lifted stop on EURAUD...it's getting too much action and my trade idea has not gotten enough time to materialize

Closed EURUSD short +10 pips, babysitting EURAUD which is currently locked???

This may be the trade of choice for 2008.

AS the value of the AUD raises against the dollar, the carry trade metric starts to work further in AUDJPY favor vs other currently more lucrative pairs like GBPJPY.

Granted there is the chance the USDJPY will drag AUDJPY down, so it may time time for the AUDJPY position to work out, and I may be early - I always am - but keeping an eye out for opportunity to add. Only other pair I would like to be long is AUDUSD.

If today's NFP is the end of the line for USD bad news until next week, the USD may be in for a climb from the basement.

After all my previous posts hullabaloo, and after finding myself up over 50 pip on the AUDJPY...I found my self setting stop loss at BE, only to have it hit on a "retrace" and bounce there after.

can't win. can't lose. Oh boy.

missed the bottom while ISM number got reported early...the hourly is showing a nice bottom with perhaps 100 pips in the cards to the upside.

COuld retrace lower, but I think the downside risk is less than upside potential.

the daily is bouncing off 20SMA ( center bollinger)... primed for 1.50 now?

Now averaged in at 1.4616 on EURUSD. 4 mini lots.

Might just look the other way for a while. (right)

Sure don't want this to escalate into a major slide.

We'll see. I like the Euro at 1.46. *gulp*

Was 1.49XX the top? Is this drop the beginning of a new trend? Did the banks get all the cheap dollars they wanted and now plan to run the Euro into the ground to reap the harvest? Why did I feel the recent dollar hype was .. just hype? Why did I beleive that the Euro was heading higher?

Since my position is relatively small, I have some further downside tolerance, but man...not too pleased at all. I am starting to run out of scenerios where the Euro bounces back. The only likely scenerio for it to bounce back, is for me to take this loss.

All the work to get back to flush is being washed away in one f*cking trade. Back to the drawing board, I guess.

I tell ya...

I look at the chart now after the EURUSD has dropped 200 pips from my first entry and it's clear as day. I knew the prospect for deep decline was there, and it is still there.

The indicators that told tell the tale not that time has passed are the Stoci and the Williams. They do not guarantee a bottom necessarily, but patience might have prevailed and made an entry here a little safer..and profitable.

I bought a couple minis to start before at least a safe entry because you never know when it will really turn. It can happen anytime, and the indicators reflect a pair that turned early...I guess I can't predict the market after all.

The fate of this trade still up in the air, I have managed to bring my cost basis down 100 pips and have capital to withstand some more punishment. While I prefer to make as much money as possible I have to wonder, is this a case of HIndsight being 20/20, or am I a glutton for punishment.

Funny thing happened. I wrote an email to Fast Money show on CNBC about the dollar, after they were preaching long dollar. I mentioned I thought the EURO was going to reveal itself as an exception and be a safe harbor for many reasons, while the GBP might see further weakness. Well, tonight K-Fine (she is a doll baby by the way) pitched a short GBP vs. USD but steered clear of the EURO. Macke on the other hand though the Dollar short was too popular a trade and was long USD all over. I wonder if that is a good enough reason to short the Euro - just to be long the dollar...hmmm. Will the tide rise all ships? Time will tell.

Ugh...

I find myself typing up responses then thinking to myself, "Who really cares?" I delete the message and go about my real work.

In my opinion it's a waste of time to bang heads or try to convince posters of anything. I have been talking on message boards about stocks and now forex for 8 years. I feel I am reaching the end of the line for serious investment discussion. I like the comic relief and the occasional insights, but most of the time it's subjective dialog that yields no value for me.

I can't sit here and make posts to bolster my position, and I sure don't want some big mouth telling me I am wrong and instilling doubt in my program. I think message boards can be bad for your investment health if not taken with a grain of salt.

CLosed ERUUSD long 1.4640 +3.5%

Looking for possible reentry...not sure

Long EURAUD 1.6196

Still holding...

Had two spikes to take profit, but was not paying attention. this little pet trade has turned into another TickerShuffle Classic! (TM)

The idea of playing the EUR relative strength against the AUD didn't play out as i thought in the short term, but I think I am striking distance to make $ on this trade. No need to panic yet. The lower it goes the more complicated the risk/reward ration becomes because I am working from a deficit, but there is reasonable cause for AUDUSD to roll over...as strong as it looks. Any hiccup in AUD economy might have magnified consequences, thus far however, AUD is as strong as they come - based on recent fundamentals.

With my little investment i have now a good reason to do some trade analysis of EUR and AUD this weekend.

Added a mini to EURAUD position. Trying to call a reversal here. Dangerous, but manageable. EUR just seems cheap here vs. Aussie. *shrug*

1.6161 new avg.

CLosed 1.6020 down - 143 pips 13.5% loss.

Oh well...back to the grind.

My gut was telling me early to dump it with small loss, but the pair kept gyrating and trending up for periods that had be thinking a breakout was at the next line of resistance.

I am embarrased. I was $100 away from being flat for the year. Now I am $475...oh crap, I have to go through this again.

Maybe this isn't for me right now.

I am heading out to play soccer tonight with my finance/banker friends. I can't wait to tell them that EURUSD long worked out, and then show my human side and that I F'd up on this EURAUD trade.

Tomorrow EURAUD will surely go up 200pips...but if it doesn't at least I still have most my money .

Flipped the script on AUD.

After Japan says they might go into recession later this year and the performance AUD is having. Time to hit AUDJPY?

Long 99.35

Closed 6 pips... .5%

gonna scalp my way back.......can't trust markets.

Long AUDUSD 91.63

Long GBPCAD 197.93

Close AUDUSD -20 pips. -1.5%

sad

Hey buddy dont chase the market let it come to you. ok if you plot 3mas (5sma high, 5sma close, 5sma low) and check on the daily of aud/usd, nzd/ usd, nzd/jpy, aud/jpy it close well above 5sma high and that is indication of retracement, that is how i see it and i shorted all of them and close with some nice profit. same was with gold and now that also i close with 100 pips profit. just check yrself and you will find it how easy it is. dont be sad it is part and parcel of ourlife.
regards