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Indicator Free Trading - Skunny

  • #3,341
  • Feb 6, 2008 8:03pm Feb 6, 2008 8:03pm
Quoting PiPr Pro
Statistical analysis is a favorite of mine. Unfortunately bobblong's statistics will not be worth anything unless he learns the proper way to trade Fibonacci. It is obvious from his post he has no idea how to trade Fibonacci. But, maybe he is holding out and will post actual trade ideas later. Otherwise I recommend doing what Skunny recommended at the beginning - vHands. Dagoods points were all correct IF you know how to trade Fibonacci.
I personaly have only ever used Fibonacci on the 123/abc setups for price targets and judging the pullback. I think I will take the time to go back and read exactly how the thread-starter is suggesting the fibs should be drawn. Also on a quick glance I fail to see much suggestion of how to apply the Gann, I will keep looking though.

EDIT:Hmm, ok. I have just taken not of the last few posts. There be some pretty euphoric people in here yea? lol.
  • #3,342
  • Feb 6, 2008 8:12pm Feb 6, 2008 8:12pm
Quoting TrevA
............Entry method: MTF Fractal signals using custom indicator i wrote to find support resistance (you need to know the Skunny method first to use this indicator)
Money management: Percentage of equity model risking 10% per trade......................P.S. I'll be posting the indicator for all to use soon so keep an eye out for a new thread called "Skunny Indicator Free Trading with Indicators"
TrevA, 2 Suggestions:

  1. many people here have trouble with S&R - place your indicator here for review. If you are mostly interested in starting a thread - you will have at least received some ideas. Also, if you place your vHands test here as I and others have done, that too will be helpful.
  2. 10% per trade is not necessarily bad depending on the pool of money you are running it on. Many hedge fund managers run safe money management on the largest pool of assets and yet feed an aggressive sub account with some of the profits only to take on very large risks with that pool. Those risks on the "house money" often reach much larger than 10%

  • #3,343
  • Feb 6, 2008 8:24pm Feb 6, 2008 8:24pm
  •  TrevA
  • | Joined Oct 2007 | Status: my brain has a mind of its own | 166 Posts
Quoting sizzler

that is interesting? How if you don;t mind me asking. I was using multi TF SR and momentum.


Sizz.
Thanks for the welcome!!!

I'm a big fan of fractals as real-time indicators of SR and was introduced to the concept by Bill Williams in his Trading Chaos book - Profitunity. MTF were always important as were daily pivot points.

It took me such a long time to understand fractals. It is such a simple concept but it gave me so much difficulty. Retrospectively thinking it is the simplest concept in trading compared to the myriad of indicators out there. I couldn't understand the language he was using in the book and that I think compounded the problem.

The problem with fractal trading using the Profitunity system is that it's based on moving average crossovers and is a trend following system. It works, but not like fibs. You loose during consolidation and Bill says this is the cost of doing business... well, if only he used fibs! So, my approach after reading this thread was to rip out the moving averages and plug in predictive profit targets using Skunnys advice.... and, as you can tell, i'm very happy with the results. The result is a mirror image of Skunnys system without gann. Next stop, plug in gan and test the result.

I never used RSI but did use a 93 period MA to help with trend direction. Oh yes, i am addicted to heiken ashi's... they rock but tend to get in the way when using fibs. Anyway, i don't think i'll be needing them now.

One thing i noticed while backtesting in two different time periods.... April 2007 and November 2007 needed to be traded in different timeframes. April works best on the 4H timeframe whereas November trades best H15. This is due to the extreme movements we have been having of late. It might be worth bearing in the back of the mind that as the market settles down that a shift up in timeframe might be required. M15 in April was just unprofitable due to lack of volatility and M5 was impossible but both these timeframes trade beautifully at the moment. If you're loss ratio ( 0 in 50 ) starts creeping up to say... um.... 3 in 50 then this could be why!

Like you said about MM, I too am impressed at how tight you can be with money management. I'm jumping in with super accurate lot sizes based on a known SL and profit target and this maximizes returns.

Just think, I considered shelving trading last month for good!

TrevA
  • #3,344
  • Edited 9:43pm Feb 6, 2008 9:06pm | Edited 9:43pm
Quoting dagoods
thank you dxt and barney...this is great!!!!!
Dagoods, you've posted a number of posts that pointed to the above.
  • #3,345
  • Feb 6, 2008 9:13pm Feb 6, 2008 9:13pm
Quoting Islander
The easiest way to break-up the 1 hour chart that PPP posted is to drop down to the 15 min TF - that brings up more smaller range fibs - some of which will align with those on the 1 hour chart.

If you drop down to the 5m TF, then you have even more fibs to choose from and if you're trading live then you get more opportunities to "feel the action" with real money - even if its just mini lots.

I've posted several charts in both the 15m and 5m TFs - I leave the 1 hour as plenty of others are posting those.
Thank you.

Did you draw fibs in between the higher timeframe fibs or went to the 15m and/or the 5m to draw those fibs. (I understand it doesn't matter, does it?)
  • #3,346
  • Feb 6, 2008 9:17pm Feb 6, 2008 9:17pm
Quoting Islander
Nice example PPP - as you know, I keep the 76.4 and 23.6 levels on my fibs, designated as Alert Lines. Here the first push back down stopped in a red spinning top 2 pips above my AL line, thereby "alerting" me to the higher low and possible mini reversal and helping me later to take a conta (main) trend trade.

This works well in the smaller TFs, but I dont know about the higher ones.
What prompted the 76.4 or the 23.6?

I've noticed the the 12 to the 38 works for me....I bet the 76.4 and 23.6 are the 12 based on pulling the fib from another perspective, other timeframe, or longer swing...(well, one of them)....

Thoughts?
  • #3,347
  • Feb 6, 2008 9:59pm Feb 6, 2008 9:59pm
Here a small 3*spread-profit trade on a fib taken from a 15M chart:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gj.gif Size: 14 KB
"The only successful substitute for brains is silence."
  • #3,348
  • Feb 6, 2008 10:23pm Feb 6, 2008 10:23pm
Wow -- I have thoroughly enjoyed reading all 3200 posts in this thread. My eyes are red and my wife mumbled something about having me served if I didn't step away from the computer, but it's been a blast. I seriously have never laughed so hard at a thread on any forum anywhere. Sizzler had me laughing so hard one time if I was drinking milk it would have come out of my nose but I wasn't, I was eating yogurt so it just kind of went up and never came down...ehm, sinus infection -- thanks Sizz!

Anyhoo, as my old Aunt Edna used to say "When someone gives you a fish don't give em back fishguts." My measley contribution as a latecomer and someone who thought fibs were something my 3 year old says:

I did the "fib out the weekly candles" exercise, and some interesting things I noticed -- WEEKLY TEST - when price penetrates on the next weekly bar but doesn't hit 138 and retraces back to DZ it will usually hit the 138 on the opposite side. If it takes multiple candles to break out, move the fibs to points of obvious S/R to catch the break earlier...if after the very next candle it penetrates the original breakout line it will usually complete the breakout in the next few weeks.

Hope this helps someone.

MB
  • #3,349
  • Feb 6, 2008 11:37pm Feb 6, 2008 11:37pm
Quote
Originally Posted by bobblong http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif I suggest you record some statistics and check it out for yourself.... my previous post I mentioned that when you are defining "swing" and "cycle", it is all so subjective and has no statistical merits, therefore you never know if your personal definitions are correct, there will always be doubt or hope.



Quoting dagoods
well now that i have had a semi aha moment i am tempted to give u the answer...but i just can't
As the old saying goes; "He could tell you but then he would have to kill you".

Not really.....but as stated......this is one of those things that you really need to discover on your own. Anyone interested in this methodology really needs to read the entire thread from the beginning. To not do so would be doing yourself a dis-service. Most here would tell you that it will be time well spent.

Also...most here have also been spending 100's of hours charting, testing, demoing, trading, thinking, and mulling this over. As of now....nobody other than Scotty (I believe) has come forth and said; "this is exactly what I am doing". Most notably.......Skunny himself. His point here was to give us a tool and expected us to learn it's use. He was clear on not teaching a system, nor telling us exactly what he is doing. IMHO.....we may all ultimately come up with our own unique application. I don't think many will come right out and tell the thread exactly.....step by step.....what they are doing....not sure we should.......not sure Skunny would want us to (I don't presume to speak for him). Skunny expected us to work for what we have learned and are seeing. First because the real beauty is having those AHA moments and secondly because anything worth having is worth working for.....it's here for the taking......read......study....practice......have an open mind.

That said......there is a great group of regulars working this thread sharing a lot of ideas. Join in and get started if you are so inclined....but start with POST #1 for the greatest effect. I honestly see the starting of a users group that will continue to interact for years to come forming here.

I don't know if anyone could convey an entire concept that took them months of time learning, v-handing and studying, in a sentence or two. This simply is not a 2 or 3 indicator system with standardized rules.

Subjective.....objective.....I don't really care. As long as it stays consistantly profitable for me!
  • #3,350
  • Feb 6, 2008 11:43pm Feb 6, 2008 11:43pm
Welcome MasterBlaster


DX....nice little scalp there.

currently I've got my low fib right at your 138 and my high at the 109.21 area. Lets see what FOLO + news bring tonight.......good trading.
trading naked.......
  • #3,351
  • Feb 6, 2008 11:46pm Feb 6, 2008 11:46pm
Quoting sizzler
but Brunite what else do you like to trade? I just started taking fibs into Crude futures and would have knocked out (DEMO) some serious ticks if I didn't chicken on my fibs and run still made out though.. fake made out

As always Cart before horse gotta lock it down in FX first


Sizz.
Yep......gonna focus on FX first. Used to trade a lot in the Ag's, Indexes and metals......will look at them with my rose colored glasses when time permits.
  • #3,352
  • Feb 7, 2008 12:01am Feb 7, 2008 12:01am
I'm just starting to study this thread.
I was introduced to forex thru a system that claimed It was "Easy" (Not mentioning any names, mind you....I have spent $$$ and many months -almost 2 years- floundering around in this environment. There was no mention of "Fibonacci", no Elliott Wave, no Stocchastic......nothing but Red and Green arrows). Now I am beginning to see why I have failed to thrive. There is so much more to this! The whole time, I have had the feeling that I was missing major pieces of the puzzle. But instead of looking elsewhere, for the missing pieces, I blamed myself.
I am dyslexic, and because of this, thought, ......"I'm just not processing the information I'm getting, in the right way".....but that's not it at all. I've not been getting all of the information necessary to perform the task. You can't imagine how relieved I am, to find out....It's not just me, and my stupid learning disability, I can learn this.
I have tried to do Skunny's exercise with the daily candles, but evidently do not have the right "computer program" to open some of these attachments. I have downloaded metatrader4 , but can't program it because, I can't open the materials I need to program the thing. Can anyone tell me what I need to install to be able to "read" these templates. I did download the Vhands -pdf, but can't open mq4; ex4; and zip files.
Sorry to bother you guys....but I am soooo tired of being/feeling "lost". I am hoping to find my way, with this thread. Thank you all, for your inspiration, and a special thanks to "Skunny" and "Bo" for starting this thread!
Thank You! Thank You! Thank You!
ppm






"The only thing necessary for evil to triumph is for good men to do nothing"

-Edmund Burke 1729-1797

  • #3,353
  • Feb 7, 2008 12:08am Feb 7, 2008 12:08am
Quoting perPIPtual Motion
I'm just starting to study this thread.
I was introduced to forex thru a system that claimed It was "Easy" (Not mentioning any names, mind you....I have spent $$$ and many months -almost 2 years- floundering around in this environment. There was no mention of "Fibonacci", no Elliott Wave, no Stocchastic......nothing but Red and Green arrows). Now I am beginning to see why I have failed to thrive. There is so much more to this! The whole time, I have had the feeling that I was missing major pieces of the puzzle. But instead of looking elsewhere, for the missing pieces, I blamed myself.
I am dyslexic, and because of this, thought, ......"I'm just not processing the information I'm getting, in the right way".....but that's not it at all. I've not been getting all of the information necessary to perform the task. You can't imagine how relieved I am, to find out....It's not just me, and my stupid learning disability, I can learn this.
I have tried to do Skunny's exercise with the daily candles, but evidently do not have the right "computer program" to open some of these attachments. I have downloaded metatrader4 , but can't program it because, I can't open the materials I need to program the thing. Can anyone tell me what I need to install to be able to "read" these templates. I did download the Vhands -pdf, but can't open mq4; ex4; and zip files.
Sorry to bother you guys....but I am soooo tired of being/feeling "lost". I am hoping to find my way, with this thread. Thank you all, for your inspiration, and a special thanks to "Skunny" and "Bo" for starting this thread!
Thank You! Thank You! Thank You!
ppm
One thing that could make it easier for you to use Mt4 is to go to one of the brokers, like fxdd, who offer that platform with it's tools and open a demo account. fxdd's expires every 3 months rather than every 30 days like some, so you can build 3 months of results in the account history before having to start over.

Hope this helps. Welcome, glad to have you aboard, sounds like the same guy who introduced me to forex. LOL. Best of luck, and you will master this.
Mom "To conquer fear is the beginning of wisdom." – Bertrand Russell
  • #3,354
  • Edited 12:36am Feb 7, 2008 12:13am | Edited 12:36am
Hi everybody,

in the research of uncluttered charts I modified my indicator to make it as clean as humanly (dxtradely) possible

You now have yesterdays high/low and DZ as a simple box, the pivots where you need them, and the daily extension. Period.

Still working on the Gann lines... below is how the indicator looks like.

Hope that helps..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gu.gif Size: 16 KB
Attached File(s)
File Type: ex4 DX Daily Boxed Fibs&Pivots&Gann_not_finished.ex4   15 KB | 448 downloads
"The only successful substitute for brains is silence."
  • #3,355
  • Feb 7, 2008 12:48am Feb 7, 2008 12:48am
[quote=perPIPtual Motion;1839259]I'm just starting to study this thread.
I was introduced to forex thru a system that claimed It was "Easy" (Not mentioning any names, mind you....I have spent $$$ and many months -almost 2 years- floundering around in this environment. There was no mention of "Fibonacci", no Elliott Wave, no Stocchastic......nothing but Red and Green arrows). Now I am beginning to see why I have failed to thrive. There is so much more to this! The whole time, I have had the feeling that I was missing major pieces of the puzzle. But instead of looking elsewhere, for the missing pieces, I blamed myself.
I am dyslexic, and because of this, thought, ......"I'm just not processing the information I'm getting, in the right way".....but that's not it at all. I've not been getting all of the information necessary to perform the task. You can't imagine how relieved I am, to find out....It's not just me, and my stupid learning disability, I can learn this.
I have tried to do Skunny's exercise with the daily candles, but evidently do not have the right "computer program" to open some of these attachments. I have downloaded metatrader4 , but can't program it because, I can't open the materials I need to program the thing. Can anyone tell me what I need to install to be able to "read" these templates. I did download the Vhands -pdf, but can't open mq4; ex4; and zip files.
Sorry to bother you guys....but I am soooo tired of being/feeling "lost". I am hoping to find my way, with this thread. Thank you all, for your inspiration, and a special thanks to "Skunny" and "Bo" for starting this thread!
Thank You! Thank You! Thank You!
ppm

I am dysexic too. So is my mother my brother my sister..... so what! YOU CAN DO THIS IF U WANT TO BAD ENOUGH! I have my law degree.... benjamin Franklin was severely dyslexic..... just motivates me more and makes me apprecite my accomplishments more knowing i had to work harder than others to get those accomplishments... don't u agree? Stoicism is a wonderful philosohpy IMO....


I feel for you and am truly sorry you were suckered into that scam company (we all know who u mean lol)... as far as vhands you should go to the thread started by blueruby...just look at the top of this page and do a serach for "blueruby" then click on find all threads started by this member...then go to his vhands thread.... follow the steps if u have questions pm me or any of us regulars ...we are happy to help... personally i feel its my kharmic duty.... skunny has started a good kharma wave and we can all keep it going and make the world better somehow methinks .... anyway....

glad to have u aboard! TAKE IT SLOW AND STEADY AND GET INVOLVED AND ASK QUESTIONS AND PM US AND POST AND DONT BE SHY...THERE ARE NO STUPID QUESTIONS HERE.... WE ARE ALL HERE TO HELP AND LEARN

  • #3,356
  • Feb 7, 2008 1:01am Feb 7, 2008 1:01am
Let the flaming begin
I have been trading the M5 gann lines on vHands successfully. Just taking the PA at the line and making a decision to go with the break or the stop and reverse. Tight stops, raising the MM huge returns.

So I decided to zoom out some and see what patterns I could find. Below please find a chart for GJ going back over a month. You will have to zoom out by clicking on the picture, maximize your screen, then hold down the Ctrl key while using your scroll wheel on your mouse to zoom way in. You will note the pattern repeats itself on nearly every single retracement. When you hit a fib target go ahead and draw a single Gann line with scale = 14. PA will generally follow this line until it breaks hard in the direction of the prevailing trend. Be warned, often when PA breaks the line, in this picture, support becomes resistance and a few bars later it breaks. I know this chart is a mess, but big picture for now. The areas where price becomes hung up and ranges vs. trending are easily defined by one of 2 areas. Daily or monthly internal fib lines or other trending Gann lines (not always shown here). The trend usually follows a Gann line scale = 4.

In summary, PA completes a fib target, draw Gann scale 14, watch PA follow this, when it breaks it will go back to the Gann trending line, all along reaching new fib targets. I am not trading this yet, but it obviously works.

P.S. make sure to draw Gann 14 using the H1
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Gann Laser 3.jpg Size: 125 KB
  • #3,357
  • Feb 7, 2008 1:01am Feb 7, 2008 1:01am
Good Morning all - looks like I've got some interesting reading with so many overnight posts.

However, just wanted to post this before the event.....UJ and GJ both have 144 period time lines off the 15 min chart coming in between 7:00am and 7:30am GMT - i.e. during Frankies Hour. GU has just had a timed gann line hit and has another time line now.

So I'm watching out for highs. I have a narrow range (68 pip) fib just hit T1 on GJ at 209.10 - also its daily M3 and have a wider range - 104 pips - fib with its 0 / 100 line at 209.20.

It will be interesting to see what happens!
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #3,358
  • Feb 7, 2008 1:12am Feb 7, 2008 1:12am
Thanks Issy, I'm watching it.............bouncing off the pivot
trading naked.......
  • #3,359
  • Feb 7, 2008 1:18am Feb 7, 2008 1:18am
Quoting PiPr Pro
Let the flaming begin
I have been trading the M5 gann lines on vHands successfully. Just taking the PA at the line and making a decision to go with the break or the stop and reverse. Tight stops, raising the MM huge returns.

So I decided to zoom out some and see what patterns I could find. Below please find a chart for GJ going back over a month. You will have to zoom out by clicking on the picture, maximize your screen, then hold down the Ctrl key while using your scroll wheel on your mouse to zoom way in. You will note the pattern repeats itself on nearly every single retracement. When you hit a fib target go ahead and draw a single Gann line with scale = 14. PA will generally follow this line until it breaks hard in the direction of the prevailing trend. Be warned, often when PA breaks the line, in this picture, support becomes resistance and a few bars later it breaks. I know this chart is a mess, but big picture for now. The areas where price becomes hung up and ranges vs. trending are easily defined by one of 2 areas. Daily or monthly internal fib lines or other trending Gann lines (not always shown here). The trend usually follows a Gann line scale = 4.

In summary, PA completes a fib target, draw Gann scale 14, watch PA follow this, when it breaks it will go back to the Gann trending line, all along reaching new fib targets. I am not trading this yet, but it obviously works.

P.S. make sure to draw Gann 14 using the H1

can u explain how this is done pipr? is there an mt4 tool? on mt4 i dont see how to adjust the settings? is it the fan? and then where do u draw from?
  • #3,360
  • Feb 7, 2008 1:22am Feb 7, 2008 1:22am
Quoting Islander
Good Morning all - looks like I've got some interesting reading with so many overnight posts.

However, just wanted to post this before the event.....UJ and GJ both have 144 period time lines off the 15 min chart coming in between 7:00am and 7:30am GMT - i.e. during Frankies Hour. GU has just had a timed gann line hit and has another time line now.

So I'm watching out for highs. I have a narrow range (68 pip) fib just hit T1 on GJ at 209.10 - also its daily M3 and have a wider range - 104 pips - fib with its 0 / 100 line at 209.20.

It will be interesting to see what happens!

209.2 may be a good fib area but seems like i would want to pull it up a bit higher than that .... just glancing at the 1 hour that is....just my 2 cents... think that area not too far above 209.2 is a nested web clusterbomb...lol
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