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Jacko's Forex House of Pleasure and Pain

  • #1,601
  • Feb 5, 2008 8:19am Feb 5, 2008 8:19am
Am heading back to add to the group blog.

PS This is just a short note to advise that I will be closing the offer for the second group and not taking any new members from February 14. We have 6 members now in the second group and I want to keep the groups small so they don't become unwieldy.
  • #1,602
  • Edited 10:06am Feb 5, 2008 9:55am | Edited 10:06am
Quoting jacko
Just as a matter of interest, this is part of the message posted yesterday morning on the group's blog.

The market has dropped to a low of 1.4644.... in less than 24 hours...(Was that quicker than you expected?).

.

This is what I meant with what I missed
These type of considerations...because I wrote the same thing to my journal after the initial reaction at 1.4930..wondering what you were seeing =)

Personally it felt like an eternity having to wait through Monday though, so for me it wasn't even quick enough for that drop to come!
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #1,603
  • Feb 5, 2008 12:15pm Feb 5, 2008 12:15pm
Quoting jacko
Just as a matter of interest, this is part of the message posted yesterday morning on the group's blog.





The market has dropped to a low of 1.4644.... in less than 24 hours...(Was that quicker than you expected?).

.
I have read the entire thread and am currently demoing the system. Although after a 2 weeks I have only entered once (for 22 pip gain), as a newb I like it for its simplicity. Doing my best to be patient, although sometimes I wonder if I'm overdoing it. This morning I actually targeted the 1.4650 as an entry point due to 50 fib confluencde around this area..... to read that jacko thinks the same was very encouraging. yay me! haha.... I now have a stop order at 1.4650, let's see how friendly the trend is....
  • #1,604
  • Feb 5, 2008 2:00pm Feb 5, 2008 2:00pm
Jacko said the NY session would be a wild ride today. Hope the new crop of tortugas took his MM advice.

Thanks for the heads-up Jacko.
  • #1,605
  • Feb 6, 2008 6:45am Feb 6, 2008 6:45am
I am being constantly surprised by the extent that the Anti-Hedge strategy has started to get a life of its own. (I hope that when we complete all further testing of the Counter Trend strategy over time, that it has the same impact).

I was sent the following by one of the group. It appears that the A-H has now entered a business school site, a number of other forex sites (including even OANDA's site) and some-one has even converted my posts here into an e-book.

Quote
Business School in Cyber Space

http://onlinebusinessschools.blogspot.com/search?q=anti-hedge (http://onlinebusinessschools.blogspot.com/search?q=anti-hedge)


While I received some great presents at Christmas, perhaps my favorite was giving to me by the EUR/USD. I have been trying to implement the strategy outlined by Jacko in his thread on the Forex Factory forums. Once again, the basic strategy is to only buy in the direction of the strong bullish trend on the EUR/USD pair with a 50-pip trailing stop loss and only to buy on 50% Fibonacci-line dips and round numbers. What really makes the strategy flourish is the employing what he calls an "Anti-hedge" trade where after a losing trade, you wait for the price to drop a further 50 pips and place a buy stop where you were stopped out. The idea is that once the long-term bullish trend picks up again, it will pick you up along the way and likely cover your original loss and then some.

Thursday was exactly one of those anti-hedge trades that was a loss back on December 14th, but the buy stop was set and waiting to be picked up when the Euro took off after Christmas. The trade very narrowly escaped being stopped out at 1.4591 and ended with a total pip gain of +191! Since the full trailing stop loss only rarely gets hit (since price would have to shoot directly down after entering) and the strategy has a good winning percentage, I risk 5% each trade meaning I nearly made a 20% account gain on this trade alone. After all the reading, researching, practice and work I've put into learning trading, it was extremely satisfying to finally see a glimpse of a light at the end of the tunnel. Of course this is just a single win, but its the exact encouragement I needed to continue in my efforts.


Forexspirit

Using it on the Yen

http://blog.thefxmarkets.com/forexspirit/my.blog/spike-and-reverse.html (http://blog.thefxmarkets.com/forexspirit/my.blog/spike-and-reverse.html)

Another recent addition to my trading strategy has been the introduction and usage of the Anti-Hedge trade (as termed by Jacko on Forex Factory). This tactic is nothing more than re-entering a trade at the point at which it had been stopped out. You cut your loss early but are unafraid to put that trade back on once price is moving back in the direction of the main trend.

The NFP release caused a spike above 117 before it fell back. My Anti-Hedge entry at 116.75 was hit and my full two positions were again back on. My current feeling is that if the spike high (at around 117.30) is taken out then I'll exist both positions and just re-enter them with the Anti-Hedge method once the yen starts to show some life again.




Oanda

http://www.forex-tsd.com/suggestions-trading-systems/8728-follow-bouncing-pip-37.html (http://www.forex-tsd.com/suggestions-trading-systems/8728-follow-bouncing-pip-37.html)


I would read Jacko's Thread at FF. Particularly the anti hedge.....could come in handy here. It's all on the first page of the thread.



Cool Concept

http://www.forex-tsd.com/131172-post1978.html (http://www.forex-tsd.com/131172-post1978.html)

How about Jacko's ANTI-Hedge strategy? (Jacko's Forex House of Pleasure and Pain thread at FF) If you haven't read about it, basically what he does is to set a stop loss and then if it's hit, he waits until the market goes on by for another 50 pips or so, then reenters when price moves back up to where he was stopped out. This way, he doesn't ride the move down, tying up LOADS of cash in DD and he gets right back in on the original move. He does this because he always trades WITH the major trend....



One even made your posts into an e-book of sorts

http://investmentstrategiest.blogspot.com/2008/01/this-very-unusual-and-rarely-used.html (http://investmentstrategiest.blogspot.com/2008/01/this-very-unusual-and-rarely-used.html)



The point of all this is to demonstrate that the ForexFactory is still the premier forum for Forex traders. It is good to see that FF is seen as a major resource for all other Forex websites.

.
  • #1,606
  • Feb 6, 2008 9:39am Feb 6, 2008 9:39am
This was part of the message placed over 3 hours ago to our little group

Quote
It is 7.30am NY time Wednesday February 6 and the market is at 1.4616.
.....
I believe that the Euro will be significantly higher at the end of the day compared to where it currently is at 1.4616.


But I could be wwwrong !!

.
  • #1,607
  • Feb 6, 2008 10:08am Feb 6, 2008 10:08am
WOW Jacko, you're famous....A trading strategy meant to recover losses, I'm sure no one has thought of that before

Following a trend? Even more of a novel idea. How do you think these things up?

If you're not too busy being a guru with your little group, I'd like some private trading lessons....

Smoky
  • #1,608
  • Feb 6, 2008 10:20am Feb 6, 2008 10:20am
Do you think as AH strategy will gain popularity it might somehow fail to work? Most of the successful traders I know afraid to reveal their knowledge thinking that it may undermine the strategy kinda like "too many wahoos on this bus" or because of forex enormous liquidity it may never happen?



Quoting jacko
I am being constantly surprised by the extent that the Anti-Hedge strategy has started to get a life of its own. (I hope that when we complete all further testing of the Counter Trend strategy over time, that it has the same impact).

I was sent the following by one of the group. It appears that the A-H has now entered a business school site, a number of other forex sites (including even OANDA's site) and some-one has even converted my posts here into an e-book.




The point of all this is to demonstrate that the ForexFactory is still the premier forum for Forex traders. It is good to see that FF is seen as a major resource for all other Forex websites.

.
  • #1,609
  • Feb 6, 2008 10:24am Feb 6, 2008 10:24am
Quoting jacko
Just as a matter of interest, this is part of the message posted yesterday morning on the group's blog.

The market has dropped to a low of 1.4644.... in less than 24 hours...(Was that quicker than you expected?).

.
The much expected EU drop happened brutally, but I suspect that this is just the beggining of a much bigger drop in the near future, to test 1.43 and much lower.

Safe trading to all,

Hani
  • #1,610
  • Feb 6, 2008 10:53am Feb 6, 2008 10:53am
Just my opinion on this...

Personally I think the AH is too "flexible" in the way it's designed and executed. You could enter on round numbers or mixed, it makes no difference. The main thing is that you're with the major trend and you execute it flawlessly.

You have to see the AH as a "concept" or "tool" and not follow it blindly just like everything else. Learn to understand it and why it works.


Adrian.

Quoting pavlov0032
Do you think as AH strategy will gain popularity it might somehow fail to work? Most of the successful traders I know afraid to reveal their knowledge thinking that it may undermine the strategy kinda like "too many wahoos on this bus" or because of forex enormous liquidity it may never happen?
  • #1,611
  • Feb 6, 2008 10:59am Feb 6, 2008 10:59am
That might be true. Just remember though that this fast moving freight train has been going up since 2002/03 or something. Do you feel lucky?


Adrian.


Quoting haniam
The much expected EU drop happened brutally, but I suspect that this is just the beggining of a much bigger drop in the near future, to test 1.43 and much lower.

Safe trading to all,

Hani
  • #1,612
  • Feb 6, 2008 11:15am Feb 6, 2008 11:15am
Quoting zoopy
That might be true. Just remember though that this fast moving freight train has been going up since 2002/03 or something. Do you feel lucky?


Adrian.
My 2 cents. Nothing lasts forever... Follow your system instead of guessing.
.
  • #1,613
  • Feb 6, 2008 11:46am Feb 6, 2008 11:46am
Good advice.

Which is why I'm still bias to long on euro for long-term (based on weekly trendline). Price may retrace back down to 4100, 4000 level area who knows? IF it breaks that trendline, then I'll wait for weekly PA confirmation and start shorting. There's also what looks like a PPZ around 4350 area? SeekingLight will probably know better since that's J16 material.


Adrian.

Quoting bullrock
My 2 cents. Nothing lasts forever... Follow your system instead of guessing.
  • #1,614
  • Feb 6, 2008 1:17pm Feb 6, 2008 1:17pm
ok. no offence.

Quoting zoopy
Good advice.

Which is why I'm still bias to long on euro for long-term (based on weekly trendline). Price may retrace back down to 4100, 4000 level area who knows? IF it breaks that trendline, then I'll wait for weekly PA confirmation and start shorting. There's also what looks like a PPZ around 4350 area? SeekingLight will probably know better since that's J16 material.


Adrian.
.
  • #1,615
  • Feb 6, 2008 3:02pm Feb 6, 2008 3:02pm
Quoting zoopy
There's also what looks like a PPZ around 4350 area? SeekingLight will probably know better since that's J16 material.
Adrian.
http://forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=1836468&postcount=9009

No trade recommendation nor anything other than just pointing out the post exists.
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #1,616
  • Feb 6, 2008 5:16pm Feb 6, 2008 5:16pm
There are 3 reasons why I love the AH strategy (Thanks Jacko):
1) It virtually takes away the psychological upset of losing a trade because it replaces it with the excitement of getting back in with the trend's momentum!
2) It is a structured strategy that does not vary according to market conditions- it is SOUND.
3) IT WORKS! I manually backtested 2 years of the simple strategy i am currently using, which is very similar to Jacko's method, but almost all entries are on Fib lines and my trailing stop doesn't go pip for pip, it goes by every 50pips it moves up 50pips
Through the backtesting it showed my strategy to gain +1600 pips for year 1 and a little more than that for year 2. I know that many not seem like a lot to people because thats over year, but i was basically finding something that was able to prove itself net positive by the end of each year, not just like +1600pips one month then -3000pips the next.
But basically, I just was curious to see if Jacko's AH strategy was doing it's job so i went through the backtesting and added up the NET amount of pips solely gained/lossed from the AH entries/exits.
THERE WERE +300PIPS FROM YEAR 1
AND +350PIPS FROM YEAR 2

So this meant that in year 1 the AH strategy made up almost 20% of my gains and similar in year 2!!

Once again, Thank you Jacko
  • #1,617
  • Feb 7, 2008 3:11am Feb 7, 2008 3:11am
Quoting brxxt
There are 3 reasons why I love the AH strategy (Thanks Jacko):
1) It virtually takes away the psychological upset of losing a trade because it replaces it with the excitement of getting back in with the trend's momentum!
2) It is a structured strategy that does not vary according to market conditions- it is SOUND.
3) IT WORKS! I manually backtested 2 years of the simple strategy i am currently using, which is very similar to Jacko's method, but almost all entries are on Fib lines and my trailing stop doesn't go pip for pip, it goes by every 50pips it moves up 50pips
Through the backtesting it showed my strategy to gain +1600 pips for year 1 and a little more than that for year 2. I know that many not seem like a lot to people because thats over year, but i was basically finding something that was able to prove itself net positive by the end of each year, not just like +1600pips one month then -3000pips the next.
But basically, I just was curious to see if Jacko's AH strategy was doing it's job so i went through the backtesting and added up the NET amount of pips solely gained/lossed from the AH entries/exits.
THERE WERE +300PIPS FROM YEAR 1
AND +350PIPS FROM YEAR 2

So this meant that in year 1 the AH strategy made up almost 20% of my gains and similar in year 2!!

Once again, Thank you Jacko
Jackos counter trend method works too but you have to be fast with it on shorter times frames. it works best on short time frames and taking profits fast.
  • #1,618
  • Feb 7, 2008 3:40am Feb 7, 2008 3:40am
May I ask what everyone has been doing in the last 3 days? I assume you all got stopped out so placed an anti-hedge position and left it for a couple of days?
The market reveals who we really are...
  • #1,619
  • Feb 7, 2008 7:17am Feb 7, 2008 7:17am
Quoting shadowninja
May I ask what everyone has been doing in the last 3 days? I assume you all got stopped out so placed an anti-hedge position and left it for a couple of days?
I noted a Bearish outside bar at resistance on 2-1-07. It screams SELL!!!! So - that is what I did. Still in the trade and it tastes like chicken. It came with some risk becuz it is against the prevailing trend - but we are in a sweet range.... Bluntly and personally, I saw no A-Trade with the trend.

Right now - the trade is up ~250 pips.... I suspect to get out around 1.4400-ish, which is the other side of the range. 400 pips max. Not bad for a few minutes work. (Oh - and there are other places where it may stall or even reverse prior to reaching the 1.4400)

Personally - I like Jacko's method. It works. However I also like price action and where I see a bleeding obvious PA (an "A" trade) I take it. The A-H strategy is very cool and works exceedingly well in a trend.

Together they make a nice salad...
I'm pretty much done with all this ...
  • #1,620
  • Feb 7, 2008 8:05am Feb 7, 2008 8:05am
I was stopped out on my 4650 trade so I have an AH on that. Right now I'm in at 4500. If this trade fails (which it may), I'll be taking a breather and re-analyzing my daily charts. I'll also be monitoring my weekly chart/trendlines as my next plan of action.

Adrian.

Quoting shadowninja
May I ask what everyone has been doing in the last 3 days? I assume you all got stopped out so placed an anti-hedge position and left it for a couple of days?
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