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Indicator Free Trading - Skunny

  • #3,281
  • Feb 6, 2008 8:51am Feb 6, 2008 8:51am
hello scotty! how are you kind sir?


glad to hear from you...

it took a few minutes but i vhanded your theroy and sorry to say it is NOT 100% true...

YOU CAN IN FACT FIND A CANDLE THAT BREACHES 138 AND NEVER RETURNS TO HIT 161 although it was a bit difficult to find this example i must admit..... evetually on certain pairs and in most markets you theory does seem to have some validity at first glance... but i shudder to think of your account when you run into a strong straight trend and you get caught on the wrong end of it.... of course you would have a sl i presume but.... as far as 100% i say no way jose.....

on the chart below u would have a candle going psst 138 t1 and NEVER reaching t2 161... boy that would be painful if u had no SL and then if you start using sls well then it gets to be complicated ssystem with much drawdown.... many daily candles with your system on this pair on vhands would have about a 500 pip drawdowns


lookie here>>>>>>
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  • #3,282
  • Feb 6, 2008 8:53am Feb 6, 2008 8:53am
Posted last week
I originally posted this as a trade I took from the 61.8 long and only received 80-90 pips instead of several hundred. So - it completes to the opposite side
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  • #3,283
  • Feb 6, 2008 8:56am Feb 6, 2008 8:56am
Quoting Scotty B
Now for the market hinting us: You fib a candle (yes any candle) and the very next candle breaks up right past the 38.2 but doesn't hit the 61.8, then falls back down into the range of the fibbed candle in question. What would you do? Maybe the candles to follow even fall below the low of the fibbed candle. Ok I guess I am giving this away now but here what Scotty B would do. He would put a big ole smelly Take Profit on that original 61.8 level the market tried to go to but didn't hit, and then he would take a nap. It might take an hour and it might take a week, but the market will hit AT LEAST that 61.8. I say at least because if the initial candle that hits that 61.8 exceeds the 61.8 level by even a hair, I stay in the trade, but you guy's have to guess where I move my take profit to.
Hi Scotty B. This movement can easy kill my small acc. and hedging with no stops at all are very dangerous IMHO. In this example its only 440pips DD, but I can find more than 2000pips easily just looking at the begining of any major trend.
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  • #3,284
  • Feb 6, 2008 9:02am Feb 6, 2008 9:02am
Quoting dagoods
hello scotty! how are you kind sir?


glad to hear from you...

it took a few minutes but i vhanded your theroy and sorry to say it is NOT 100% true...

YOU CAN IN FACT FIND A CANDLE THAT BREACHES 138 AND NEVER RETURNS TO HIT 161 although it was a bit difficult to find this example i must admit..... evetually on certain pairs and in most markets you theory does seem to have some validity at first glance... but i shudder to think of your account when you run into a strong straight trend and you get caught on the wrong end of it.... of course you would have a sl i presume but.... as far as 100% i say no way jose.....

on the chart below u would have a candle going psst 138 t1 and NEVER reaching t2 161... boy that would be painful if u had no SL and then if you start using sls well then it gets to be complicated ssystem with much drawdown.... many daily candles with your system on this pair on vhands would have about a 500 pip drawdowns


lookie here>>>>>>
What time frame is that...Daily? I wouldn't use this method on anything but the 1hr. Remember Skunny says that the 1 hr candles are the most accurate anyways. I would be very curious to see the same exact time you used in your example in the hourly chart.
  • #3,285
  • Feb 6, 2008 9:03am Feb 6, 2008 9:03am
trading.' I have a hard time even seeing the candles on a lot of the charts I see up around here. Now it's true that a lot of people make good use of indicators, but too many times they become clutter. I have a hunch that a lot of stuff on a chart makes a person feel better, or like they have a better handle on the rabid forex easter bunny of a market. But the truth still remains as Skunny has said "The 95% feed the 5% very well."[/quote]


HAHAHAHAHAHAHAH
I almost had a heartattack then I immediately emailed that picture to almost everyone I know... AHAHAHAHAHA

Sizz
  • #3,286
  • Feb 6, 2008 9:04am Feb 6, 2008 9:04am
Thanks again Skunny.
"Party all the time." repeat, repeat, and triplepeat...catchy tune.

Skunny and other fibbers' words from the tread:

Fibs measure price action.

A Fib line is a trend line.

Read Post #6.

Can price action be perfectly traded? Yes.

Read Post #9

More emphasis from Skunny

Read Post #45

Read Post #95

We could go wrong by swiching to swings because of the following post

Read Post 168

Appears if we stick to candles, 4hr, maybe, 1hr definately, then
it works. Means to me that it would be consistantly repeatable.
( A swing is a series of candles. A 4hr candle can be fibbed easier then a swing. Less guessing where to start and end the Fib Tool. )

An interpretation of Skunnyism - "1hr increments on the 15 minute screen, with a close of the 15 min. candle above/below the Fib (100, 0) and voila."

Read Post #825

Read Post #884

Where is Skunny going with his trading and by inference, where we are following?

Read Post #895

Putting it together

Read Post #905

Money Management

Read Posts #1103, #1111

Confirmation

Read Post 1146

Humbling

Read Post #1166

Some house keeping thoughts
(Pull the 100% to the 138% when on the 15 min. screen, the 15 min. candle closes above the 138%. Pull the 0% to the -35% when on the 15 min. screen, the 15 min. candle closes below the -38%.)

Read Post #1210, #1211

Some thoughts on Trends

Read Post 1257

Conclusions

Read Post #262, 263, 1380

Final Thoughts

Read Post #1432

Another example

Read Post #1683

The Mann

Read Post #818

Reread Post #95

--------------
Thanks again to DXT for the Skunny Posts file.
--------------
Hope no-one took offense at the above. It is just another way of trying to understand.
--------------
Just noticed that the #'s pretty much go in order....
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf Skunny_posts.pdf   659 KB | 704 downloads
  • #3,287
  • Feb 6, 2008 9:16am Feb 6, 2008 9:16am
Quoting Scotty B
Agree. You can also fib a fib. enter on break of +/- 12%, close at fib +/0 5%. 8 trades in the attachment starting after 9pm (just to the right of the green background), one right after the other, 160 pips. Thanks Skunny. Scotty B - right on. (1 candle is much easier, don't need stuff cluttering up trading, like the attachment below.)
I'm glad to see it is working. It's funny, this thing we call 'indicator free trading.' I have a hard time even seeing the candles on a lot of the charts I see up around here. Now it's true that a lot of people make good use of indicators, but too many times they become clutter. I have a hunch that a lot of stuff on a chart makes a person feel better, or like they have a better handle on the rabid forex easter bunny of a market. But the truth still remains as Skunny has said "The 95% feed the 5% very well."[/quote]

Agree about the feeling better. Charts I've posted are ways to make me feel better about the decision to spend $'s to get more $'s.
  • #3,288
  • Feb 6, 2008 9:21am Feb 6, 2008 9:21am
Quoting PiPr Pro
Posted last week
I originally posted this as a trade I took from the 61.8 long and only received 80-90 pips instead of several hundred. So - it completes to the opposite side
Great example of what Skunny was talking about.

Did you demo or trade live? If you traded live, what were your feelings?

If you traded live ... clang, clang.

Is there a way to break-up the trades into smaller bites?
  • #3,289
  • Feb 6, 2008 9:27am Feb 6, 2008 9:27am
Here is an interesting question. When we have a fib going and it gets broken, do we continue to use the original inner levels or do we update with the new high or low? This is strictly for determining the true inner levels, most likely to enter. These charts show how this question can arise.
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  • #3,290
  • Edited 9:53am Feb 6, 2008 9:29am | Edited 9:53am
Price Action after post 3277....fourpeats

Attachment is just "one" interpreatation of what Skunny was trying to point to.

The colors, red fib, blue fib, black fib (used to trade), entry %, close % are ways for me to confirm spending $'s to get $'s.

Sorry, if they confuse or annoy....not meant to.
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  • #3,291
  • Feb 6, 2008 9:31am Feb 6, 2008 9:31am
Quoting viat
Hi Scotty B. This movement can easy kill my small acc. and hedging with no stops at all are very dangerous IMHO. In this example its only 440pips DD, but I can find more than 2000pips easily just looking at the begining of any major trend.
Thats a fascinating example..You are right you'd lose a chunk of change there with no sl. I personally would not have been trading at that time because the market just reopened after an awkward time with the big banks being shut down because of thanksgiving. As for that candle though... I believe that, that cycle will end at some point in time. It's still going as we speak!
Good find!
  • #3,292
  • Edited 10:46am Feb 6, 2008 9:32am | Edited 10:46am
OK I've finished moving a $3M fiber-glass "hole in the ocean" and its safely tied up without a scratch - quite relaxing after all this trading.

Came back and found this set up begging to be taken. On the 5m chart, the minimum swing that I'll fib is 80 pips - this was 85, so about as tight as I'll trade - and given that it is against the higher trend and around NY Open, my target was for a clear 50 after the spread. Pips in my bank are what counts.

PS I guess you can see, the 138 hit to the pip! - and if you're really walking your fibs fast, there was anothe PB into the new DZ for another buy - I clucked at 23 pips on that one as UJ seemed to be stalling. I probably wont trade again until Frankies time tomorrow - mustn't get greedy.

Edit: Pat self on back, correct decision as market's going nowhere. Reward self with early Sundowner.....cheers....
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Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #3,293
  • Feb 6, 2008 9:32am Feb 6, 2008 9:32am
Quoting Scotty B
What time frame is that...Daily? I wouldn't use this method on anything but the 1hr. Remember Skunny says that the 1 hr candles are the most accurate anyways. I would be very curious to see the same exact time you used in your example in the hourly chart.

yes this is daily candles (which i beleive skunny said something like finding the direction of weekly daily hourly, shouldnt daily be as realiable as hourly????

anyhow.... here is example of fibbing indicidual candle that goes horribly wrong lol if you were hedging this baby instead of using sl it would be quite painful for quite a log time....

again I am only being devils advocate here ...


skunny has given us all a wonderful bat..... its just that i played baseball and was quite a good hitter in little league

but i was taught very many rules that helped me get good....but practice was the real key..... practice practice practice each and every day..... but if nobody had ever told me how to hold the bat... how not to pull my head out... how to keep my back elbow up... how to try to swing level or slight uppercut at most...how to keep my eye on the ball at all times( most important) how to use hips for power etc. etc. i would have had a hard time figuring all that out on my own ya know....

skunny said we have 1% of what is.... lets not think that the quail is bagged here ... its not.... at least not for me....

but sure glad i have a bat.... and its a great big fat aluminum bat too... don't get me wrong all... i remember when i first tried the Fat Albert wiffle ball bat....boy that was a moley quail of a bat for sure ...LOL he he he


anyway..... i just want perfection thats all lol I dont think thats too much to ask for? just kidding but kinda not really.....


here is another whammy on vhands just to be devils advocate and keep us all homest.....

PS pipr has got the right idea i think ...when u can;'t witn you simply reverse the curse like the Boston Red Sox


good trading everyone! swing batter batter batter battter batter swiiiiiiiiiiiiiinnnnnnnnnnnnngggggggggggggggg!!!


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  • #3,294
  • Feb 6, 2008 9:55am Feb 6, 2008 9:55am
Quoting TrevA
Setting the fib is no problem and i get it right most of the time but you really need to think about where you set the TP relative to the spread because it has laser accuracy and you can miss the TP by a pip if you're not careful. I have a custom indicator that I use to help set the fib using factals and it's pretty accurate. I can share it if you're interested.

TrevA
Hi TrevA. I'm interested in this indi and wanna give it a try. Can you post it, please.
Thanks
  • #3,295
  • Feb 6, 2008 9:56am Feb 6, 2008 9:56am
Setting the fib is no problem and i get it right most of the time but you really need to think about where you set the TP relative to the spread because it has laser accuracy and you can miss the TP by a pip if you're not careful. I have a custom indicator that I use to help set the fib using factals and it's pretty accurate. I can share it if you're interested.

TrevA[/quote]


Hi Treva,


Hi! you are me. That is my story...profitable and doing well enough. tight MM good trades.. yada yada feeling like there is something more accurate for tps sls...LOL Having to manually exit trades or baby them around TP areas, but Tps were always fuzzy... and that bothered me. Maybe some of this will be familair maybe not..

Here is my abc journey of the week

One Sunday planning session I used momentum and PAS/R as I knew it and time frame scaling to try to forecast how far each pair would go before turning around or whatnot. It was a blackout charting session.

I netted 1500 pips without the multiplier of the amount of lots I was using over 14 pairs that day (london monday to end of londay tuesday).I have my trade journal for those and I still look and read my planning notes I made two bad calls though to be fair, but my rr was 3:1

It was also Market orders and pip perfect, in fact, I exited out early in retrospect of some bigger moves and lost out on another 1500+ pips but I couldn't see them so.... that was when my worst fear was confirmed that the market was predictable and Immediately thought about fibs having never used them since their relationship with nature, but ... still seemed like approximations so they went back on the shelf.

I was devastated I might Never be able to trade like that again. I tried and was semi succesfull but that one day was magic. I went on a charting studying blitz.

Shortly after that I found this thread after coming here all the time for news, and of course videos from Goofy Jon @ PFX, and had my wig split I was hooked from "you can trade perfectly" because that is what I had already seen and fit my brand new hypothesis that the market was predictable. I had done it beyond being lucky IMO.

I don't know how you trade, but for ME it clarified what I was doing. LIke I could say hey it is going to go short from that chart... and I think it will go short... hmm... say 350 pips. BUt then when I got a fib "right", I would take my trading as an early entry and then if my sr tp was below the breach of the ,oh say, sell line.. it would give me focus to say.. hmm 384 pips or 325 pips etc.. plus I could mostly see how the tp would make sense by looking at historics.I used confluence on the chart to validate my fibbing.


I have said and will continue to say it : This is the most powerful trading concept I have ever seen EVER. I don;t know Gann or EW to be fair. Skunny is an AMAZING mind and the best trader I have ever EVER come in contact with the only person who COULD be better that I know about.. would be Gann. IMO. I really can;t say enough . again all IMO>


Sizz.
  • #3,296
  • Feb 6, 2008 9:57am Feb 6, 2008 9:57am
Quoting BarneyDog
Thanks again Skunny.
"Party all the time." repeat, repeat, and triplepeat...catchy tune.

Skunny and other fibbers' words from the tread:

Fibs measure price action.

A Fib line is a trend line.

Read Post #6.

Can price action be perfectly traded? Yes.

Read Post #9

More emphasis from Skunny

Read Post #45

Read Post #95

We could go wrong by swiching to swings because of the following post

Read Post 168

Appears if we stick to candles, 4hr, maybe, 1hr definately, then
it works. Means to me that it would be consistantly repeatable.
( A swing is a series of candles. A 4hr candle can be fibbed easier then a swing. Less guessing where to start and end the Fib Tool. )

An interpretation of Skunnyism - "1hr increments on the 15 minute screen, with a close of the 15 min. candle above/below the Fib (100, 0) and voila."

Read Post #825

Read Post #884

Where is Skunny going with his trading and by inference, where we are following?

Read Post #895

Putting it together

Read Post #905

Money Management

Read Posts #1103, #1111

Confirmation

Read Post 1146

Humbling

Read Post #1166

Some house keeping thoughts
(Pull the 100% to the 138% when on the 15 min. screen, the 15 min. candle closes above the 138%. Pull the 0% to the -35% when on the 15 min. screen, the 15 min. candle closes below the -38%.)

Read Post #1210, #1211

Some thoughts on Trends

Read Post 1257

Conclusions

Read Post #262, 263, 1380

Final Thoughts

Read Post #1432

Another example

Read Post #1683

The Mann

Read Post #818

Reread Post #95

--------------
Thanks again to DXT for the Skunny Posts file.
--------------
Hope no-one took offense at the above. It is just another way of trying to understand.
--------------
Just noticed that the #'s pretty much go in order....
thank you dxt and barney...this is great!!!!!
  • #3,297
  • Feb 6, 2008 10:00am Feb 6, 2008 10:00am
Quoting BarneyDog
Great example of what Skunny was talking about.

Did you demo or trade live? If you traded live, what were your feelings?

If you traded live ... clang, clang.

Is there a way to break-up the trades into smaller bites?
I trade live and practice every day. My post last week indicated I would be watching the Daily 38.2 carefully, which is what stopped the trade from completing (for the mean time) the 138.2 extension long. Still made money but not what was originally expected. If I see a clear bounce off inner support (several preferred) I will take the trade on wider fibs only at the inner fib levels. Otherwise I stick to the retracements, and smaller bites as you call it.

Regarding smaller bites - absolutely - I don't need to show those fib lines because several other posters here are already doing a good job of that. In any cycle there are MANY fibs to be traded if desired. H1 candles, Doji's, wicked candles, dual opposing wicked candles, M15, M5, M1, gann line breaks, gann line stop and reverse, S&R breaks and S&R stop and reverse.
  • #3,298
  • Feb 6, 2008 10:42am Feb 6, 2008 10:42am
Quoting BarneyDog
Great example of what Skunny was talking about.

Did you demo or trade live? If you traded live, what were your feelings?

If you traded live ... clang, clang.

Is there a way to break-up the trades into smaller bites?
The easiest way to break-up the 1 hour chart that PPP posted is to drop down to the 15 min TF - that brings up more smaller range fibs - some of which will align with those on the 1 hour chart.

If you drop down to the 5m TF, then you have even more fibs to choose from and if you're trading live then you get more opportunities to "feel the action" with real money - even if its just mini lots.

I've posted several charts in both the 15m and 5m TFs - I leave the 1 hour as plenty of others are posting those.
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #3,299
  • Feb 6, 2008 10:57am Feb 6, 2008 10:57am
Quoting Islander
The easiest way to break-up the 1 hour chart that PPP posted is to drop down to the 15 min TF - that brings up more smaller range fibs - some of which will align with those on the 1 hour chart.

If you drop down to the 5m TF, then you have even more fibs to choose from and if you're trading live then you get more opportunities to "feel the action" with real money - even if its just mini lots.

I've posted several charts in both the 15m and 5m TFs - I leave the 1 hour as plenty of others are posting those.
Small Bite Example - Islander referred to
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #3,300
  • Feb 6, 2008 11:35am Feb 6, 2008 11:35am
Quoting PiPr Pro
Small Bite Example - Islander referred to
Nice example PPP - as you know, I keep the 76.4 and 23.6 levels on my fibs, designated as Alert Lines. Here the first push back down stopped in a red spinning top 2 pips above my AL line, thereby "alerting" me to the higher low and possible mini reversal and helping me later to take a conta (main) trend trade.

This works well in the smaller TFs, but I dont know about the higher ones.
Trading Levels with WRBs
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