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Indicator Free Trading - Skunny

  • #3,201
  • Feb 5, 2008 10:28am Feb 5, 2008 10:28am
Quoting dagoods
fibbing the double bottom on 4 hour???? hmmmmmmmmmmmm

theory being a double bottom indicates a significant support level......

so far has been releiable..... but....not enough testing yet...


anyone care to help me test it?

come to think of it this was a triple bottom...hmmmmmmmmmm

notice a buy trade on this fib would have failed (so far at least)

anyone have thoughts on the next fib placement? on 5 minutes 1 minute? curious as I am demoing a million theories still
Dagoods,

Since you asked......a couple thoughts:

1) I noticed (I think I did at least) that you added the "so far at least" after your original post......my thoughts as well.

2) Just a thought.....after this thing stopped short of the topside extension, reversed, and fell like a lead balloon.....how much cajones would it take to double-up (if one was so inclined) after it broke bad on the bottom side? A quick ride down to 138 (or 162) almost seemed like a "sure" thing after "0" was penetrated.....single?...double-up?.....either would have helped recover some of the loss felt if one were to jump ship when things started to look "iffy". Skunny himself has stated there is no shame in getting off the ride if the retrace gets too scary.

3) Take a gander at what happened if you had only fibbed the 2nd bar of the 2 you choose....

Just a few ideas....FWIW.
  • #3,202
  • Feb 5, 2008 10:32am Feb 5, 2008 10:32am
Quoting sizzler
I like that method and use it alot! the more touches the more special hecne all the touches.



here is my logic: sometimes a swan will come swooping in and attack you. Thats what swans do. Attack!

Do you freak out? Sure! But then you get a gun and sit and wait for the Swan since you might know where it hangs out. You get inside its head. you find out where its children go to school. Where it lives. What are its hopes and dreams?You become the swan!.

Then ,next time, The evil fib destroying swan comes squanking along trailing smoke and fire, you just unload your gun right into it's black heart and laugh as the beast's blood red eyes go dim, because you knew it was coming and you were ready. Silly swan, fibs are for Sizz!



Sizz
http://images-partners-tbn.google.co...hDeadSwan3.JPG<<<<SIZZLER
Attached Image
  • #3,203
  • Feb 5, 2008 10:33am Feb 5, 2008 10:33am
Quoting ianf0ster
Hi Seb,
Well done, those Fibs look great - all with what i would call a 2 bar high/low (rather than call the double tops/bottoms when they are in congestion).
Do you always fib this way? And are you having much success with them?

Ian
Hi Ian, thnx. I tend to start working on my fibs from a top or bottom, then work along the swing, they can be a single bar or several. Its as Skunny outlined in one of his posts. They have been quite successful so far. Its all a work in progress though.
  • #3,204
  • Feb 5, 2008 10:34am Feb 5, 2008 10:34am
Quoting ianf0ster
You can also do a stop and reverse rather than a straight SL - since many times if the T1 in one direction is not hit before a break to the other side, then the opposing T1 will be hit.

Why am I telling a 1KT all this simple stuff? - Perhaps because I want to clarify it in my own mind.

Ian
Ian....if it helps clarify things for you further.....I just said the same thing in my last post too. I agree with your hypothesis.

Then again.....take that for what it's worth. I'm not 1KT either.....only done 723 trades so far!
  • #3,205
  • Feb 5, 2008 10:41am Feb 5, 2008 10:41am
Thanks for the input PipPirate and of course MOM!!!!!!!!


I was doing some mental stuff and working through the pyschology of trading. It is good to brush up on all the time. IMO perfect trading involves no bias you only see what the market tells you. You don't guess. again IMO.

I was on a jag researching Synchronicity and underlying order to all things as immediately, strongly suggested to me by these trades.

I found a quote (on wikipedia of all places!!) dealing with cognitive bias and things that may not only hinder us in trading and testing , but in life in general.That I wanted to share.

I feel trading is a fantastic metaphore for life. and as I am sure many have found, carrying you trading discipline over helps you live a better life.

I find this to be stunningly true and possibly appropriate for the thread IF not still a good quote. I try to work from the standpoint I know nothing and am open to being wrong as I find it helps me learn a lot more.

You could tell me wolverine and the mole people are running the world's economy from inner earth and I would listen and process it for myself despite the fact we all know it is Heman and the aliens on the moonbase observatory. Sheesh.. hehehehe

Sizz

"I know that most men, including those at ease with problems of the greatest complexity, can seldom accept the simplest and most obvious truth if it be such as would oblige them to admit the falsity of conclusions which they have proudly taught to others, and which they have woven, thread by thread, into the fabrics of their life".




-Count Tolstoy
  • #3,206
  • Feb 5, 2008 10:42am Feb 5, 2008 10:42am
Quoting sizzler
Sometimes a swan will come swooping in and attack you. Thats what swans do. Attack!

Do you freak out? Sure! But then you get a gun and sit and wait for the Swan since you might know where it hangs out. You get inside its head. you find out where its children go to school. Where it lives. What are its hopes and dreams?You become the swan!.

Then ,next time, The evil fib destroying swan comes squanking along trailing smoke and fire, you just unload your gun right into it's black heart and laugh as the beast's blood red eyes go dim, because you knew it was coming and you were ready. Silly swan, fibs are for Sizz!
Sizz,

Have you ever considered volunteer reading for the kid's storytime hour at your local library?.......You are a natural!

Also.....I'd love to be around when you tell campfire stories!

Anyhoo.....now you got me hungry for a bowl of TRIX.....go figure.
  • #3,207
  • Feb 5, 2008 10:58am Feb 5, 2008 10:58am
Quoting sizzler

I was on a jag researching Synchronicity and underlying order to all things as immediately, strongly suggested to me by these trades.
...still blows me away. Closest thing I ever saw to this was Welles Wilder's Delta which, as interesting and as demonstrable as it seemed, was utterly un-tradable to me.

Wilder claimed that there was "perfect order" in the markets. What he (actually; Jim Sloman) found was NOT perfect...(notwithstanding all his other TA contributions)....IMHO. What we are seeing here has so many levels and so much depth to it.....thinking material for years for me!



Quote
"I know that most men, including those at ease with problems of the greatest complexity, can seldom accept the simplest and most obvious truth if it be such as would oblige them to admit the falsity of conclusions which they have proudly taught to others, and which they have woven, thread by thread, into the fabrics of their life".
A great quote. Explains the loss of life of untold numbers of martyrs, soldiers and civilians. It explains the cause of so many dissolved human relationships. So pure and simple a truth.....it applies to most anything.

Yeah....probably applies to trading as well!
  • #3,208
  • Feb 5, 2008 11:05am Feb 5, 2008 11:05am
2/5/08 Day 14 Vhands Testing

I am starting to see clearly now. My hearing is also improving. I am now able to hear the fibonacci waves coming in from everything that makes a sound.

Especially my wife, her 1.618 echos in my head how she is going to take the kids and go to her mothers. That old hag lives exactly 361.8 miles from our house.

I am also growing taller. I believe I am exactly 138 half-inches now.

But that damn bug, he is still laughing at me. Distracting me from my work. I will catch him. And if I cant make him talk.........I will eat him. I am already growing smarter from the bug poo he mockingly leaves me to ingest for his precious knowledge.
  • #3,209
  • Feb 5, 2008 11:08am Feb 5, 2008 11:08am
Quoting Brunite
Sizz,

Have you ever considered volunteer reading for the kid's storytime hour at your local library?.......You are a natural!

Also.....I'd love to be around when you tell campfire stories!

Anyhoo.....now you got me hungry for a bowl of TRIX.....go figure.
Brunite
LOL I think the kids would flip I would be getting, angry calls from parents talking about kids worried about the firebreathing Black Swan and not being able to sleep without a gun! hehehe

Ps.. is anyone looking at this Slop on GY? I am getting buried in fibs. Time to go take a break

Sizz
  • #3,210
  • Feb 5, 2008 11:29am Feb 5, 2008 11:29am
Quoting Brunite
Sizz,

Have you ever considered volunteer reading for the kid's storytime hour at your local library?.......You are a natural!

Also.....I'd love to be around when you tell campfire stories!

Anyhoo.....now you got me hungry for a bowl of TRIX.....go figure.
Sizz - you are hereby promoted to "I.C. Camp Fires - Island Division - Skunny Traders for the Enjoyement Thereof"......I vote for the location of the aformentioned fire is the Virgin Islands, but might consider the Turks & Caicos or Bahamas......I each case I would be ~3,368.1 nautical miles from the Old Hag and also separated by a rather deep pond! http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon10.gif
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #3,211
  • Feb 5, 2008 11:29am Feb 5, 2008 11:29am
Quoting Brunite
Dagoods,

Since you asked......a couple thoughts:

1) I noticed (I think I did at least) that you added the "so far at least" after your original post......my thoughts as well.

2) Just a thought.....after this thing stopped short of the topside extension, reversed, and fell like a lead balloon.....how much cajones would it take to double-up (if one was so inclined) after it broke bad on the bottom side? A quick ride down to 138 (or 162) almost seemed like a "sure" thing after "0" was penetrated.....single?...double-up?.....either would have helped recover some of the loss felt if one were to jump ship when things started to look "iffy". Skunny himself has stated there is no shame in getting off the ride if the retrace gets too scary.

3) Take a gander at what happened if you had only fibbed the 2nd bar of the 2 you choose....

Just a few ideas....FWIW.
hi brunite..and yes this is exactly how i would have traded it..stop and reverse..actually i would have doubled up semi-martingale style for the down ride or the next ride.... but semi-martingale, jacko style hedging stop and reverse trading postition sizing theories stop loss money management allocation etc.....is probably a discussion for a differnt thread(s) but thanks you for your post...

i guess the thing is this... seb had different fibs from me...from galaxy mom from islander from you from pipr probably... from lowell....all different from dx maybe maybe different from bo.... etc

and as skunny said in one of his posts 50% would do great and 50% of the traders would fail and he wouldnt know why....

did any of us have them as skunny would have them? I wonder....

it seems like sizz said and you point out and galaxy mom and others have kindly advised... that it can be made to work for you (like a bat) even if you are not hitting home runs... and even if you fibbed "wrong"

I just want to hit consistent little singles ALL the time and maybe once in a while a homer develops all on its own....

am i asking too much?

as far as fibbing just the one candle( which in hidsight would have been a good idea as per skunny mentioning about sometimes..one candle (dojilike) having support AND resitance all in one candle....


but i am trying to be consistent and non-discretionary and fibbing swings that contain price and trying to identify areas of s/r that are more significant.... just having a hard time being better than 70/80 percent.....

having a hard time recognizing the truer areas of s/r and also fibbing too much too often too "wrong" seems to me price does not go up stop go back down stop then go back up.... to me it goes up down up down up down dup down UPPPPPPPPP on up down down upsidedown sideways down all over the place sidewaysup biased down trending up and down news spike ahhhhhggggggggg with fibbles poping out of its sides everywhere i look lol

and lossess can get expensive if u r wrong and you dont bug out and put your stop and reverse hat on....

also frustrated because i see how magical the fib areas are...from so many angles and I know there must be a quail there and cant get the bugger.... lol


Don't get me wrong I love the bat more than anything (can u tell by how much i post ) and I am Robanaccis biggest fan = he is my hero

and I can trade PA and trendlines etc. and the fib bat gives me extra nice targets and makes me feel warm and fuzzy on the inside when i see a trade and a fib at the same time...all good....

just for me I am a perfectionist and need to find a mechanically logical non-discretionary molier quail


dkunny opened pnadoras box and i intend to close it! everything I have ever gotten in life that is worthwhile was because of hard work effort tenacity and deterination (including my wife ) lol


but thanks to all of you for your kind words of wisdom advice and guidance in my vision quest! i truly appreciate all of you!
  • #3,212
  • Feb 5, 2008 12:05pm Feb 5, 2008 12:05pm
just looked at uj chart on one of my tests..... doesnt this look like there should be a molier quail? am I nuts?
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  • #3,213
  • Feb 5, 2008 12:42pm Feb 5, 2008 12:42pm
Issy & Sizzy,

I wanted to post my I-fib charts from last nights FOLO.

I originally had one fib placement (golden color) going into the Frankfurt open........but then price started forming around another resistance point at the 211.36 area so I placed another I-fib (white color) there and kept my larger one on the chart as well. Tokyo session saw price "trying" to go below the daily pivot but as we came closer to FOLO it was pretty obvious we were staying above the pivot, and IMO we were going to be breaking out to the upside. We had two news items which had price jumping around a bit but it seems like price was gonna hit it's targets regardless. Entered one position @ 211.38 TP @ 211.75.

Now after that I placed a trade that may or may not be to anyones liking but here's what I did. After my TP I watched price continue to go up and hit the 162 and a little beyond.....watched a few more 5M bars then I placed a "sell" position @ 211.91. We had already seen a run up of 175 pips to the upside in London session and the 211.98 area was showing some resistance so IMO it was going to be a cycle completion and then start to head back down to the other bus stop. At this point it was 4.a.m my time so I busted out my Issy audible chin alert and set the high just above the 212.00 area (in case I needed to mount a rescue mission) and to the downside I set it at the pivot at 210.61 and went to sleep next to my laptop. Woke up to ringing in my ears and closed out the position at 210.61 for a very nice +130 pip gain but after waking back up this morning I see that I could have banked another 100 pips If I could stay awake and play it. I don't normally play a reverse off of a completion right at the 138 or 162 but after watching FOLO last night it seemed like a good move after watching the dance floor last night all the way from Tokyo to London.
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trading naked.......
  • #3,214
  • Feb 5, 2008 12:44pm Feb 5, 2008 12:44pm
Quoting dagoods
just looked at uj chart on one of my tests..... doesnt this look like there should be a molier quail? am I nuts?
Hi Dagoods,
It might do if I knew where the high of your orange Fib was based. Looks like it is just hanging in the air there.
I have not yet tried combining De Mark with Skunny Fibs ( though did play with De Mark / Mouteki at one time) - the combination looks interesting.

Ian
  • #3,215
  • Feb 5, 2008 12:52pm Feb 5, 2008 12:52pm
Quoting ianf0ster
Hi Dagoods,
It might do if I knew where the high of your orange Fib was based. Looks like it is just hanging in the air there.
I have not yet tried combining De Mark with Skunny Fibs ( though did play with De Mark / Mouteki at one time) - the combination looks interesting.

Ian



my fib is placed at the 61 or is ith the 38 of the prior move(s)....see what i mean?
  • #3,216
  • Edited 1:23pm Feb 5, 2008 1:13pm | Edited 1:23pm
Quoting dagoods
my fib is placed at the 61 or is ith the 38 of the prior move(s)....see what i mean?
Don't tell me you fibbed a fib?

So, what was the 1st fib? Where did you place the 2nd fib?

Next question, what did you use to determine the direction of the trade?

Then, what made you sure you'd entered correctly?

And then, what did you use as your take profit target?

I think you are on to something, could it be the Good Golly Miss Molly?

Bugs are a wonderful thing. Oops, that was David's bug. Did you eat David's bug? The Chicken crossed the road to get the bug. But Dagoods ate the bug. Now the chicken has to cross over the road back to Dave's.

Could you repeat your process at the same time of the day? That would make it easier to trade for people that can only trade for a short time each day. Any suggestions?
  • #3,217
  • Feb 5, 2008 1:43pm Feb 5, 2008 1:43pm
Hi guys,

it's 2:40 in the morning and I'm coming back from a party...so forgive me..

But was that really so hard to take these 60 pips?????????
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"The only successful substitute for brains is silence."
  • #3,218
  • Feb 5, 2008 2:03pm Feb 5, 2008 2:03pm
Hi All,

I started playing with Gann lines and this interesting situation just occurred, as some of you are into Gann lines, I thought you'd like to see it. Anybody else got this, is it a fluke?
(some of my lines are not quite parallel, a tool would be useful)
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gj h1 feb 05 gann.gif Size: 23 KB
  • #3,219
  • Feb 5, 2008 2:10pm Feb 5, 2008 2:10pm
Quoting piphitman
Issy & Sizzy,

I wanted to post my I-fib charts from last nights FOLO.

I originally had one fib placement (golden color) going into the Frankfurt open........but then price started forming around another resistance point at the 211.36 area so I placed another I-fib (white color) there and kept my larger one on the chart as well. Tokyo session saw price "trying" to go below the daily pivot but as we came closer to FOLO it was pretty obvious we were staying above the pivot, and IMO we were going to be breaking out to the upside. We had two news items which had price jumping around a bit but it seems like price was gonna hit it's targets regardless. Entered one position @ 211.38 TP @ 211.75.

Now after that I placed a trade that may or may not be to anyones liking but here's what I did. After my TP I watched price continue to go up and hit the 162 and a little beyond.....watched a few more 5M bars then I placed a "sell" position @ 211.91. We had already seen a run up of 175 pips to the upside in London session and the 211.98 area was showing some resistance so IMO it was going to be a cycle completion and then start to head back down to the other bus stop. At this point it was 4.a.m my time so I busted out my Issy audible chin alert and set the high just above the 212.00 area (in case I needed to mount a rescue mission) and to the downside I set it at the pivot at 210.61 and went to sleep next to my laptop. Woke up to ringing in my ears and closed out the position at 210.61 for a very nice +130 pip gain but after waking back up this morning I see that I could have banked another 100 pips If I could stay awake and play it. I don't normally play a reverse off of a completion right at the 138 or 162 but after watching FOLO last night it seemed like a good move after watching the dance floor last night all the way from Tokyo to London.
That sounds like 160+ pips, dancing the night away, and some sleep too.....nice work....http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon14.gif
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #3,220
  • Feb 5, 2008 2:43pm Feb 5, 2008 2:43pm
Hi Seb - with gann lines there are soooo many possibilities!

I'm thinking that multiple hits - like the thick red and blue which have been hit hours before - are useful, as are lines that are getting hits together with a time ratio.

I also only take them from a swing high / low.....its amaizing how they will get hit again way into the future.

I still need more research and some input from Skunny - this is all very experimental!

BTW - all you lines should be parellel - if they are not, click on them and check their scale, it will be off a little from its designated number.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Trading Levels with WRBs
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