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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #11,241
  • Feb 5, 2008 8:48am Feb 5, 2008 8:48am
This was my first trade in several months after studying the system and price movements again. Just want to confirm it: One needs to understand the system to be successful.

I also took the EUR trade but entered almost too early. Luckily my SL was above the High of the previous candle (unlike Rebecca's trade). Later I saw my TC pattern on MACD was not that smooth and the next setup (TC pattern) was much more smoother.

Take 1st profit as indicated and then set SL to BE with 25pips trailing SL. When the 89 was hit, I've changed SL to 15pips above the price with trailing SL of 15pips.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 20080204 4h trade 1 a jpeg.JPG Size: 84 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 20080204 4h trade 1 b.gif Size: 15 KB
Willem Forex recipe for success = Patience, discipline & hard work.
  • #11,242
  • Feb 5, 2008 8:55am Feb 5, 2008 8:55am
Quoting merrittb
so i know myself and a few others are up 120+ pips at the moment.... let's talk about when we should exit this trade. I have taken profits on half my position.

Price has currently found support at the 200. I want to ride this as long as possible. Maybe even add to the position.

What are your thoughts guys?

Attachment
As Ryan said, there is almost always a retrace. Do this, since the next higher timeframe is the daily chart, take a look there and see how those price bars are trending. If you want to hold this for as long as possible, that really means that the daily has to start trending your way also. Larger stops are needed on the daily which may mean sacrificing pips on the 4hr that you have open or already banked. One way to ride this is to place your stop above the 21. Now you need to start looking at this as a bear market and a retrace back to the 21 with a close above it may signal a trend change. But, I've had plenty of these trades where I have left a position open floating 70, 80, 100+ pips only to have them stopped out at break even. Those long runs do happen and there is no way to know when one is starting, this is where you have to start looking at the daily charts. I usually go in with 3 lots and try to milk one for all I can. But again, it usually comes back to even. My mentality has changed recently. Many people are happy with 20 pips a day so if you're up 100 then that is a week for most people.

Adding to a position:

This is where the BladeRunner may help, again pending the start of a run on the 8ema on the 4hr. But, adding to a position is all contingent on the 4hr trend so it may be a while before you can add. What you don't want to do is start looking at an even lower time frame such as the 30 or 15 min charts. Trading on these lower times means that your profit targets should be smaller. It's very hard to mix the 4hr and 5 or 15 min time frames to add positions. Be careful because adding positions can also end up taking profits away...
  • #11,243
  • Feb 5, 2008 8:58am Feb 5, 2008 8:58am
Quoting Golfer
This was my first trade in several months after studying the system and price movements again. Just want to confirm it: One needs to understand the system to be successful.

I also took the EUR trade but entered almost too early. Luckily my SL was above the High of the previous candle (unlike Rebecca's trade). Later I saw my TC pattern on MACD was not that smooth and the next setup (TC pattern) was much more smoother.

Take 1st profit as indicated and then set SL to BE with 25pips trailing SL. When the 89 was hit, I've changed SL to 15pips above the price with trailing SL of 15pips.
Hey Willem, hope u had a great vacation !!! Nice to see you contribute your experties on the 4 hour as well. Well played on the euro
TRADE WHAT YOU SEE... FOCUS ON SUCCESS
  • #11,244
  • Feb 5, 2008 9:17am Feb 5, 2008 9:17am
just look back to Ryan's post a few days ago.... He waits for a move below (for a short) or above (for a long) then a retrace back to the 8 or 21 for a TC opportunity. Ryan posted some nice charts and descriptions...

Quoting kc8flq
Can you explain how you use BB's again. I'm still trying to wrap my head around that.
  • #11,245
  • Feb 5, 2008 9:27am Feb 5, 2008 9:27am
Hello all. I've been following this thread from the beginning, and decided to start contributing. Thanks to everyone. You have helped me develop as a trader.
Missed the EURUSD trade, but got in the GBP.
Used a trailing stop after TP1. Took profit at 1.9670 (.382 Fib weekly chart)
In hindsight, should've set my stop to BE and let it run.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: trade #1.gif Size: 30 KB
  • #11,246
  • Feb 5, 2008 9:51am Feb 5, 2008 9:51am
Quoting BIL2205
I am still waiting for confirmation on my platform for a GU short, as you can see that the Candle that accompanied the TC had close above the 89. My current candle is below the 89 and closes in 25 minutes. Will see where it stands at close,

good to see u here.can u pls,give me the pivot indicator u have on your chat?thanks.moreso,what is the meaning of TC?
  • #11,247
  • Feb 5, 2008 9:59am Feb 5, 2008 9:59am
Info
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GbpUsd.gif Size: 48 KB
Attached File(s)
File Type: zip Daily Wrapup 05 Feb2008.zip   819 KB | 943 downloads
  • #11,248
  • Feb 5, 2008 10:01am Feb 5, 2008 10:01am
Hello, Here is the indicator, i just update it everyday, like attatch it to the chart,and if the parameters of support and reisistance look a little out of whack just change the color on the indicator from black to whatever,. seems like a hassle but i am used to it hehehe,. i have couple of other indicator as well, but i am jsut used to this one
regards
nadia,
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 ###Auto Pivot.mq4   15 KB | 426 downloads
TRADE WHAT YOU SEE... FOCUS ON SUCCESS
  • #11,249
  • Feb 5, 2008 10:12am Feb 5, 2008 10:12am
Just closed my GU 2nd lot for +50, actually my daughter closed it for me, i had clicked on the trade to decide if i should put on the trailing stop now. had my finger on the mouse and she just pushed it for me. maybe i 3 year old could see something i could not....No complains,
Anyways have great week everyone, i have some family coming in so might not be able to contribute for a week..... Pip Well.
Nadia.

P.S . here are few more pivot indicators. hope they are helpful.
Attached File(s)
File Type: mq4 AutoPivotIndicator.mq4   14 KB | 497 downloads
File Type: mq4 Pivot Points Multitimeframe.mq4   45 KB | 577 downloads
File Type: mq4 PivotCustom_4TimeFrames.mq4   45 KB | 576 downloads
File Type: mq4 DailyPivots.mq4   9 KB | 483 downloads
TRADE WHAT YOU SEE... FOCUS ON SUCCESS
  • #11,250
  • Feb 5, 2008 10:12am Feb 5, 2008 10:12am
Quoting BIL2205
Hello, Here is the indicator, i just update it everyday, like attatch it to the chart,and if the parameters of support and reisistance look a little out of whack just change the color on the indicator from black to whatever,. seems like a hassle but i am used to it hehehe,. i have couple of other indicator as well, but i am jsut used to this one
regards
nadia,
can u post the trade u had this morning before u went back to bed so i can learn from it.thanks
  • #11,251
  • Feb 5, 2008 10:34am Feb 5, 2008 10:34am
Quoting ayour2a
can u post the trade u had this morning before u went back to bed so i can learn from it.thanks
Hi please check post 11212, here is the chart for reference, i live in us EST time, so gmt 0400 - 0800 candle is at 3am here, that is why i checked to confirm and entered short. price action was acording to rhythm rules,.
price breaking 21 pulling back to it , sometimes going above it and then coming below it to move to 89 SMA.I hope this helps,
Nadia.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euro today.jpg Size: 136 KB
TRADE WHAT YOU SEE... FOCUS ON SUCCESS
  • #11,252
  • Feb 5, 2008 10:48am Feb 5, 2008 10:48am
Hi, Phil. Your daily wrapup is superb! You're explaination about rhythm of the market by interpreting price action and S&R just filled the last question in my mind today. I took couple of pips on the long trade (which was yesterday) then closed it. I was going to take a short trade by then, however, MACD did not gave me signals, not until I left my computer. I missed today's trade because I had to do something @campus, then it did suddenly went all the way down. Your wrapup is just what I needed.
Thanks for the wrapup, phil.
  • #11,253
  • Feb 5, 2008 11:01am Feb 5, 2008 11:01am
Info
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Live trades for Feb2008.gif Size: 16 KB
  • #11,254
  • Feb 5, 2008 11:42am Feb 5, 2008 11:42am
I hope I can be as consistent as you one day Phillip.

Truly an honor to be a student of yours
"The market pays you to be disciplined"
  • #11,255
  • Feb 5, 2008 11:42am Feb 5, 2008 11:42am
Hi Phil,

I was just wondering what percentage risk you are willing to use per trade.
I know most people advocate 2% maximum, however your high win rate and risk: reward ratio would suggest that a higher amount would be acceptable.

For example the trades you posted this month show an 85% success rate with a R:R just above 1. I realize that one months data is too little to work with, but with a few years of results it would be possible to find an optimum balance between volatility and growth.

What are your thoughts on this?

Regards,

Ed.
  • #11,256
  • Feb 5, 2008 11:55am Feb 5, 2008 11:55am
Quoting Ted1983
Hi Phil,

I was just wondering what percentage risk you are willing to use per trade.
I know most people advocate 2% maximum, however your high win rate and risk: reward ratio would suggest that a higher amount would be acceptable.

For example the trades you posted this month show an 85% success rate with a R:R just above 1. I realize that one months data is too little to work with, but with a few years of results it would be possible to find an optimum balance between volatility and growth.

What are your thoughts on this?

Regards,

Ed.

NEVER go above, if you want I can give you the number to a friend who did this and lost 300k in one day because he was 95% right. Just keep building, you WILL have a losing streak someday and if you put up say 5-10% and start losing you will blow out a account, ask me how I know this . If you don't have the cash to trade as much as you want there is a reason, it's because your not winning. Start with say 2-5k and build it up, If you can't make money on 2-5k it really does not matter how much you trade or how big your account is. I have traded 100 contracts in the past on the @ES and it felt the same as I was trading 1, that really is the key. If you are trading to live and you have to trade more, well get a better job sell everything you own and save, I did it and it has paid off.
Keep taking CT trades, I need more money
  • #11,257
  • Feb 5, 2008 11:55am Feb 5, 2008 11:55am
Written copy
Attached File(s)
File Type: doc Written Copy Daily Wrapup 05Feb2008.doc   25 KB | 469 downloads
  • #11,258
  • Feb 5, 2008 11:55am Feb 5, 2008 11:55am
Hey guys im pretty new to forex i got a question about todays euro/usd

to me it looks like its a perfect time to buy or sell on my macd chart it shows the euro falling and it hasnt been this low forever.. so should i be Buying it now and selling it later? or selling it now and buying it later?

on my bottom chart it shows way above that means buy or sell?
im lost on my charts i think..

would you wait for it to start climbing back up then buy?

when you look at the bottom chart whenever its above the 0 line that means buy whenever its below that means sell?

im just using a demo account atm.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usd.GIF Size: 75 KB
  • #11,259
  • Feb 5, 2008 12:00pm Feb 5, 2008 12:00pm
Quoting hoots123
Hey guys im pretty new to forex i got a question about todays euro/usd

to me it looks like its a perfect time to buy or sell on my macd chart it shows the euro falling and it hasnt been this low forever.. so should i be Buying it now and selling it later? or selling it now and buying it later?

on my bottom chart it shows way above that means buy or sell?
im lost on my charts i think..

would you wait for it to start climbing back up then buy?

when you look at the bottom chart whenever its above the 0 line that means buy whenever its below that means sell?

im just using a demo account atm.

Take what you think is best, then I will show you what you did wrong. Also re-read page 1 please before people waste time talking about what has been posted about 2-300 times here. If you are lazy don't try to trade you will just waste years of your life.


p.s. zoom out on that chart, you can not even see what is going on.
Keep taking CT trades, I need more money
  • #11,260
  • Feb 5, 2008 12:01pm Feb 5, 2008 12:01pm
Anyone notice these 4 tails on the 1HR usd/jpy. Sorry can't do insets or circles like other "fancier" members, but 4HR has found support on the 89, coupled with 1HR tails, looks like a possible TC developing.... Back up. US equity market could be the culprit (Holding down this pair)???
Attached Image
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