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Fibonacci Trading with Bobokus

  • #2,081
  • Feb 5, 2008 2:31am Feb 5, 2008 2:31am
G/U is quite confusing right now. You could say that it just retraced down to the inner fibs of the swing set and now could move up with a long, but when it went up last time, it retraced to the inner fibs of the intraday which indicates short. I guess the intraday fibs probably trump the swing fibs, but it's just too confusing now.

I've pretty much found in vhands, it's best to wait for the best setups. Don't be too anxious to get into a trade. Once you are confident in this, you only need a couple or three trades a week to be successful. I think Thex has already figured that one out from what he was saying the other day.
  • #2,082
  • Feb 5, 2008 3:03am Feb 5, 2008 3:03am
...if the hour closes below 687, this looks a good short opportunity to me.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Hrly Fibs - 5th Feb 08.GIF Size: 62 KB
  • #2,083
  • Feb 5, 2008 3:22am Feb 5, 2008 3:22am
Quoting ChowClown
...if the hour closes below 687, this looks a good short opportunity to me.
I'm currently up 44 with 16 locked in.
"Support and Resistance either holds or it doesn't." -Anonymous hillbilly
  • #2,084
  • Feb 5, 2008 3:25am Feb 5, 2008 3:25am
Quoting Thexder
I'm currently up 44 with 16 locked in.
your hrly scalper delivering the goods. I took the long breakout earlier and lost a few on that.
  • #2,085
  • Feb 5, 2008 3:26am Feb 5, 2008 3:26am
Quoting ChowClown
your hrly scalper delivering the goods. I took the long breakout earlier and lost a few on that.
Me too.
I've factored that loss into my current numbers. Creative Accounting.
"Support and Resistance either holds or it doesn't." -Anonymous hillbilly
  • #2,086
  • Feb 5, 2008 3:29am Feb 5, 2008 3:29am
Thexder, where you entered sell? and why, if it's not a bother for you.
  • #2,087
  • Feb 5, 2008 3:34am Feb 5, 2008 3:34am
T1 hit squarely on the smaller swing from yesteday's high down to today's Asian session low.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: Hrly Fibs - 5th (2) Feb 08.GIF Size: 58 KB
  • #2,088
  • Edited 3:51am Feb 5, 2008 3:40am | Edited 3:51am
I sold around 1.9715 for the big short I was in (past tense now).
After the failed attempt to go long today above 1.9751 (the break of the high of a subjective swing move starting at 0:00GMT on my chart, attempting to break at 8:00 GMT) I pulled a retracement fib along the break out move from the start of the run up at 1.9715 to the maximum 1.9763 reached in the failed long.

When I saw that the failed long move had retraced back down 61.8% toward the starting point of 1.9715 I was willing to take a short break of that retracement fib's low (1.9715) if it were triggered, and it was. Also I require that this retracement fib is at least 40 pips in order to trade the break from its high or low.

I was able to re-claim losses and if I'd ended up with more losses I'd look for the next such setup, provided these retracement moves I watch are at least 40 pips wide to be worth trading.

Or if it looks too choppy I might call it a day or at least wait for some other range to break out.

Now I'm calling it a day because we've moved 100 and I got something out of it, can't expect much more to happen today and if it does, it does so while I'm in bed.
"Support and Resistance either holds or it doesn't." -Anonymous hillbilly
  • #2,089
  • Feb 5, 2008 3:53am Feb 5, 2008 3:53am
Quoting Thexder
I sold around 1.9715 for the big short I was in (past tense now).
After the failed attempt to go long today above 1.9751 (the break of the high of a subjective swing move starting at 0:00GMT on my chart, attempting to break at 8:00 GMT) I pulled a retracement fib along the break out move from the start of the run up at 1.9715 to the maximum 1.9763 reached in the failed long.
When I saw that the failed long move had retraced down 61.8% I was willing to take a short break of that retracement of the break out at 1.9715.
I was able to re-claim losses and if I'd ended up with more losses I'd look for the next such setup, provided these retracement moves I watch are at least 40 pips wide to be worth trading.

Or if it looks too choppy I might call it a day or at least wait for some other range to break out.

Now I'm calling it a day because we've moved 100 and I got something out of it, can't expect much more to happen today and if it does, it does so while I'm in bed.
Thanks!
Thou i got everything upside down. i made 20 pips from the move up, but missed the break to the downside
  • #2,090
  • Feb 5, 2008 3:57am Feb 5, 2008 3:57am
There were two valid fib trades, the long and then the short.
  • #2,091
  • Feb 5, 2008 4:06am Feb 5, 2008 4:06am
Quoting Jared
There were two valid fib trades, the long and then the short.
I draw Fib with the low 9702 and high 9752. when the cable started falling intensely, i wanted to sell from a retrace (i dont like to find myself selling at the bottom). but the retrace was very small, so i didnt enter position.
  • #2,092
  • Feb 5, 2008 4:26am Feb 5, 2008 4:26am
Quoting Bobokus
Intraday means 1 day.

That's my understanding, but I will figure out why you didn't move it.
Thanks Bo
Mom "To conquer fear is the beginning of wisdom." – Bertrand Russell
  • #2,093
  • Feb 5, 2008 4:42am Feb 5, 2008 4:42am
Quoting galaxymom
That's my understanding, but I will figure out why you didn't move it.
Thanks Bo
If no new highs or lows are made then the intraday fibo stays there until we have a new high or low. Just because we have a new day does not mean we need to draw a new fib specially when the price was rangy and stayed in the last days levels. This would be how I do it and I am sure Bo does the same but he can answer that when he wakes up.
Just Trade It
  • #2,094
  • Feb 5, 2008 7:24am Feb 5, 2008 7:24am
Quoting galaxymom
That's my understanding, but I will figure out why you didn't move it.
Thanks Bo
Try this open a chart and place nothing but the Intraday fib from Fridays high to Sundays low and tell me what do you see.
  • #2,095
  • Feb 5, 2008 7:40am Feb 5, 2008 7:40am
Quoting ianf0ster
Hi Bo,
Now I am confused. (For me it is 06:03 , as I am on GMT).
Since we had a change of direction on Monday (GMT time), I have pulled a new Intraday Fib today based upon yesterdays retracement of the Friday's move. Thus my Intraday is currently from the yesterdays high 1.9786 (16:00 bar on Monday 4 Feb) to 1.9628 ( low on the 23:00 bar on Sunday).

Should I have left the previous Intraday Fib in place - because price was reactiong to its interior Fib levels?

Thanks,
Ian
Your experiencing the same situation as Galaxymom, Me personally I just see a reason not to move it yet since the levels of it are being respected by price, leaving it in place also prevented taking a false breakout long from the move you have yours on, I had my Swing fib across the retracement move because you still want to see if the support from that holds or not...it didnt hold adding more weight to the reasoning to leave the Intraday across Friday.
I know it can be confusing but I trade with what I see, the fibs are just tools to help you along the way. There has to be some degree of adaptability to the current conditins in the market.
  • #2,096
  • Feb 5, 2008 7:41am Feb 5, 2008 7:41am
Quoting Zelenin
I draw Fib with the low 9702 and high 9752. when the cable started falling intensely, i wanted to sell from a retrace (i dont like to find myself selling at the bottom). but the retrace was very small, so i didnt enter position.
Smart move.... in a downtrending move wait for the rally's to sell. In an uptrending move wait for the bounces to buy.
  • #2,097
  • Feb 5, 2008 8:19am Feb 5, 2008 8:19am
Quoting Bobokus
Smart move.... in a downtrending move wait for the rally's to sell. In an uptrending move wait for the bounces to buy.
This is a good advice. thank you.

I wanted to ask a question, not about Fibs, but about MM. Do you have a fixed amount of pips for the day (or week), when you say "ok, i earned 100 points, that's it. i won't trade anymore till next day." Or you take every opportunity (which you consider profitable to trade)?

I'm sorry if you already discussed this, i missed it.
  • #2,098
  • Feb 5, 2008 8:33am Feb 5, 2008 8:33am
Quoting Zelenin
This is a good advice. thank you.

I wanted to ask a question, not about Fibs, but about MM. Do you have a fixed amount of pips for the day (or week), when you say "ok, i earned 100 points, that's it. i won't trade anymore till next day." Or you take every opportunity (which you consider profitable to trade)?

I'm sorry if you already discussed this, i missed it.
I trade as i see the opportunity.I would never set a goal of ...I have to make xxxpips per day, if you do you will set yourself up to over trade and loose more trying to make a quota. Take what the maket gives not what you think you should make everyday, sometimes its 15 pips other days its 150. Look at it more of what am I averaging over the past month or 6 months.
  • #2,099
  • Feb 5, 2008 9:00am Feb 5, 2008 9:00am
Quoting Bobokus
Your experiencing the same situation as Galaxymom, Me personally I just see a reason not to move it yet since the levels of it are being respected by price, .........
I know it can be confusing but I trade with what I see, the fibs are just tools to help you along the way. There has to be some degree of adaptability to the current conditins in the market.
Thanks Bo,
I will get the hang of how to use these mearuring sticks sooner or later - I just want it to sooner!

I have had 2 out of 2 losing trades on Swing Fibs today, i misssed the first short because I had to go out.
Took the second short which got me stopped out because of:
a) the early release of ISM Non-Manufacturing Index figures
b) having my stoploss too tight to my Swing Fib Long value - another 6 pips higher and I would have been in profit to my TP2.

Thanks again Bo

Ian
  • #2,100
  • Feb 5, 2008 9:01am Feb 5, 2008 9:01am
Just a little something for ya. Here is EU Monthly chart T2 hit to the pip!
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: charts.gif Size: 24 KB
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