Daily Cable Analysis | Page 55 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Related Instruments

GBP/USD

Similar Threads

Is it just me or is cable acting random? 49 replies

Fundamental Analysis, Technical Analysis Or Graph Analysis? 28 replies

CABLE Centurion 16 replies

Cable: Measuring Fibonacci From Where ? 29 replies

Attachments: Daily Cable Analysis
Exit Attachments

Daily Cable Analysis

  • #1,081
  • Edited Feb 2, 2007 5:49pm Jan 10, 2007 5:32pm | Edited Feb 2, 2007 5:49pm
Okay, another idea for all of you people who like a variety.

I am posting a chart here, and in each of the circles you have a set of Red Bars going down from the High of 1.9846 on 12-1-06

Circle 1 (Far Left) 4 Red Bars in a Row
Bottom of each bar to the next bottom of the next in that circle is as follows:

50/58/7/102 add the total pips from the first bottom Red bar to the 4th bottom bar in that first circle. Total is 207 pips Divided by the 4 bars =
54 pips average each move down from the first bars low.

Okay you got the idea.

Second circle from left
27/79/-22/87 Total 231 Divided by 4 bars = 57 pips

Third circle
62/-1/45 Total 106 Divided by 3 bars = 35

Fourth circle
79/135/+27 Total 187 Divided by 3 bars = 62 pips

Total of the 4 circles is 731 pips divided by 4 groups (circles) = 182 pips

Now the fifth circle far right
(we are currently in this group)
The first Red Bar (yesterdays) Low was 1.9386 subtract 182 pips from this price and your average would find you at 1.9204.

Well there you go folks, believe it or not. That is up to you.

Just food for thought.
  • #1,082
  • Jan 10, 2007 7:53pm Jan 10, 2007 7:53pm
Will Bush's comments have affect on us?
Man who scratches ass should not bite fingernails
  • #1,083
  • Jan 10, 2007 8:24pm Jan 10, 2007 8:24pm
Cable has had its little dead cat bounce for the week and should go down strongly as long as the BofE doesn't raise rates.
  • #1,084
  • Jan 10, 2007 8:50pm Jan 10, 2007 8:50pm
This nose seem to play out for a few pips on the short side. Have a long in now for a few more pips to target the 23.6 retracement with a probability of 95.7% of gbpusd doing so.
Attached Image
  • #1,085
  • Jan 10, 2007 9:04pm Jan 10, 2007 9:04pm
i am still short @ 9380....three main timeframes that i look at are 15min 1hr and 4hr all have an established downtrend. what i see is a possible movement up to 9350-9370 area before we have another move down to t/p of 9260.
  • #1,086
  • Jan 10, 2007 9:18pm Jan 10, 2007 9:18pm
Just noticed there was a 4hr pin that closed at 6am and played out for the day.
Attached Image
  • #1,087
  • Jan 10, 2007 9:19pm Jan 10, 2007 9:19pm
Another look at the 4hr pin and daily fibs
Attached Image
  • #1,088
  • Jan 10, 2007 10:23pm Jan 10, 2007 10:23pm
This is what I see screaming at me on the dailys. The positive reversal in RSI is significant enough to take out nov-dec high. Only a push below this "trendline in RSI" will negate the signal - a close below price trendline will not necessarily mean pattern failure unless RSI trendline is broken along with it. Risky on daily timeframe only in the sense that real size is much greater but risk/reward is actually very good. I don't trade on pure dailys, but will cut down the timeframe and try to position myself in this general direction. If I get a couple of freeones, I may just let them roll to the end of the daily PT.
Attached Image
Man who scratches ass should not bite fingernails
  • #1,089
  • Jan 10, 2007 10:25pm Jan 10, 2007 10:25pm
Quoting Leugimp
This is what I see screaming at me on the dailys. The positive reversal in RSI is significant enough to take out nov-dec high. Only a push below this "trendline in RSI" will negate the signal - a close below price trendline will not necessarily mean pattern failure unless RSI trendline is broken along with it. Risky on daily timeframe only in the sense that real size is much greater but risk/reward is actually very good. I don't trade on pure dailys, but will cut down the timeframe and try to position myself in this general direction. If I get a couple of freeones, I may just let them roll to the end of the daily PT.
As of now, daily pt in the minimum is 2.0223

approx 900 pips away - this is starting to sound like an excelent options play, if I could only figure out the timeframe.
Man who scratches ass should not bite fingernails
  • #1,090
  • Jan 10, 2007 11:48pm Jan 10, 2007 11:48pm
Quoting goodthings
Another look at the 4hr pin and daily fibs
The charts are very helpful, hopefully everyone here is taking the time to read all the good stuff being posted.

I am watching the pins more closely, thanks
  • #1,091
  • Jan 10, 2007 11:50pm Jan 10, 2007 11:50pm
Quoting Leugimp
This is what I see screaming at me on the dailys. The positive reversal in RSI is significant enough to take out nov-dec high. Only a push below this "trendline in RSI" will negate the signal - a close below price trendline will not necessarily mean pattern failure unless RSI trendline is broken along with it. Risky on daily timeframe only in the sense that real size is much greater but risk/reward is actually very good. I don't trade on pure dailys, but will cut down the timeframe and try to position myself in this general direction. If I get a couple of freeones, I may just let them roll to the end of the daily PT.
Amazing, I was sitting here reading a book of analysis, and sure enough it was speaking of divergence. So I thought I would go on my charts and see, behold you had one posted already.

Timely, thanks much.
  • #1,092
  • Jan 11, 2007 12:16am Jan 11, 2007 12:16am
Quoting monarch
Amazing, I was sitting here reading a book of analysis, and sure enough it was speaking of divergence. So I thought I would go on my charts and see, behold you had one posted already.

Timely, thanks much.
this is not really a divergence, it is called a positive reversal. When you have a divergence, you have a new price high with a lower momentum reading, wether it be rsi, stoch, macd, etc. The idea is that price makes a new high, but on waning momentum, signaling a loss of strength. Alot of times, people find divergences in many charts, but haven't taken the time to learn when these signals are much more probable to follow through. This is not a criticism, as I was also one of them until I got hit enough times to stop jumping in front of the runaway train. Depending on what asset class you are trading, momentum indicators will have different overbought and oversold levels for bull and bear trending markets. It is important to find the current cycle that allows you to set your periods on your indicators to that level that represents these ranges well. Once this is in place, your oscillators now help you to determine trend as they fluctuate and bounce off of these levels. Divergence can be extremely powerful, but i have found that it is only so when it occurs in the range of the direction it is signaling. That is why many times we will see a divergence in the upper 80-90 level only to find that the timing is off and price runs away against us. We must remember with many of these oscilators that they are bound by 0 and 100 and in many strong trending markets, they are destined to diverge, but not necessarily turn at that moment.

What I have posted on this chart is a positive reversal which is more of a continuation pattern as opposed to divergence which signals a reversal in primary trend. In a positive reversal, we have momentum(RSI) which has managed to make a new low, but this increased push in price by momentum has been unable to send price to a lower level(comparing lows in an uptrend or highs in a downtrend). This is a strong trend continuation signal, in this example it is forcasting the future rise in price on the dailys. There are many other characteristics in RSI as well as other momentum indicators, I hope this only helps to perhaps open up the doors to that investigation. A great help for understanding in RSI for me is anything Andrew Cardwell.
Man who scratches ass should not bite fingernails
  • #1,093
  • Jan 11, 2007 12:33am Jan 11, 2007 12:33am
I did not take it as criticism, but as being informed. I am always open to the knowledge of other traders who may have studies certain indicators and that can share their studies.

Thanks for the input.

Glad I didn't mortgage my house to Short on that signal.
  • #1,094
  • Jan 11, 2007 12:49am Jan 11, 2007 12:49am
Quoting monarch

Glad I didn't mortgage my house to Short on that signal.
Man who scratches ass should not bite fingernails
  • #1,095
  • Jan 11, 2007 12:53am Jan 11, 2007 12:53am
Hi " L " I agree with you 125 % on divergence. Over rated big time I hardly ever use it. The Postive reversal sounds very interesting. One thing I would like to point out after reading your post is the lack of Volume in the market at this time to be 100 % with the postitive reversal. I also think that the overbought and oversold on the Stoch is also very overrated. Acually I have found it better to go long when it is overbrough, isn't that what u want to go long traders buying and the oppissite on the short. What I am looking at here and like I posted yesterday is a bit of a retracement to 350 - 380 max and one more leg down. I still beleive we are in a Flat on the 1 hour chart and right now in expanding triangle, which is a A,B,C,D,E, each consisting of 3 minor waves this would bring the price down again, to the mid 200's then up for the wave C of the flat ( 5 waves up ). Then down. just My outlook. I could be wrong. Only the market will tell. To bad I closed my shorts yesterday to soon. But had thingsto true and did not like the price action on the support line. But still picked up 61 pips on 3 - 1/2 lot.
Quoting Leugimp
this is not really a divergence, it is called a positive reversal. When you have a divergence, you have a new price high with a lower momentum reading, wether it be rsi, stoch, macd, etc. The idea is that price makes a new high, but on waning momentum, signaling a loss of strength. Alot of times, people find divergences in many charts, but haven't taken the time to learn when these signals are much more probable to follow through. This is not a criticism, as I was also one of them until I got hit enough times to stop jumping in front of the runaway train. Depending on what asset class you are trading, momentum indicators will have different overbought and oversold levels for bull and bear trending markets. It is important to find the current cycle that allows you to set your periods on your indicators to that level that represents these ranges well. Once this is in place, your oscillators now help you to determine trend as they fluctuate and bounce off of these levels. Divergence can be extremely powerful, but i have found that it is only so when it occurs in the range of the direction it is signaling. That is why many times we will see a divergence in the upper 80-90 level only to find that the timing is off and price runs away against us. We must remember with many of these oscilators that they are bound by 0 and 100 and in many strong trending markets, they are destined to diverge, but not necessarily turn at that moment.

What I have posted on this chart is a positive reversal which is more of a continuation pattern as opposed to divergence which signals a reversal in primary trend. In a positive reversal, we have momentum(RSI) which has managed to make a new low, but this increased push in price by momentum has been unable to send price to a lower level(comparing lows in an uptrend or highs in a downtrend). This is a strong trend continuation signal, in this example it is forcasting the future rise in price on the dailys. There are many other characteristics in RSI as well as other momentum indicators, I hope this only helps to perhaps open up the doors to that investigation. A great help for understanding in RSI for me is anything Andrew Cardwell.
  • #1,096
  • Jan 11, 2007 12:55am Jan 11, 2007 12:55am
Okay how in the world did you get 1/2 lot?

I want one of those.....
  • #1,097
  • Jan 11, 2007 12:57am Jan 11, 2007 12:57am
3 trades at $5.00 a lot is a 1/2 lot
Quoting monarch
Okay how in the world did you get 1/2 lot?

I want one of those.....
  • #1,098
  • Jan 11, 2007 12:58am Jan 11, 2007 12:58am
now down , one more up move here to. Then its up to the news in 2 1/2 hours
Quoting dobbie11
3 trades at $5.00 a lot is a 1/2 lot
  • #1,099
  • Jan 11, 2007 1:06am Jan 11, 2007 1:06am
Quoting dobbie11
3 trades at $5.00 a lot is a 1/2 lot
$10.00 per lot, you have 3 1/2 lots = $35.00 per lot right?
  • #1,100
  • Jan 11, 2007 1:06am Jan 11, 2007 1:06am
one other thing of interest. this will break the upward channel from ( 10/16 to 11/17 lows ) on the daily. But it will not break the downward ( 12/18 to 1/5 ) on the daily.
1 trader viewing now