K.I.S.S. Method

sry all of my evidence is in my thread. Look there for my analysis.

euro still topping out and waiting for news tomarrow.

thanks for placing links to the charts

Dave

If this goes up EUR/USD will pullback. IMHO Major support on the USD/CHF around 1.2430. This call should be good for 1-2 days at the most then some sort of crest will be in place. I think now is the best time to enter or anywhere around 1.2430-1.2440 if possible!!!

USD/CHF 11/7/2006 to 11/9/2006

Fourier at its best ( :

$USD

For your viewing enjoyment


EUR/USD Daily

Hello, i think you have really done a good job, but please can you reduce the size of the chart so that it can be easily readable?
With regards.

Long on USD/CHF!

I'm seeing a solid long on the Daily USD/CHF charts at least for another 2-3 weeks +. Considering the strength of the recent selloff its very possible that we could see a new daily close below 1.1877 but if we do my guess is it will come later not sooner. If you look over this chart carefully all the buy signals that were triggered are almost always accompanied by a major pullback before the strong daily rally kicks in. I believe the major pullback is over or near completion (no new lows below 1.1877)

Under this model when these rallies start they always hit for 800-1000 pips (at the least 8-10 cents). I don't care what anyone says i would not want to be a momentum trader that is short on this contract right now...or $USD either...I don't care what Greenspan says...thinking at the absolute least we will have a pullback to 1.2250.

A 61.8-78.6% retracement of the recent rally from 12/05/2006 is likely and I labeled the two levels that would be ideal buy ins if the pullback does occur. Whether the market will retrace to those levels again i don't know but if it does IMHO it would be an excellent buying oppurtunity. Even purchasing a few small positions right now i'm willing to bet would pay off 2-4 times over the course of the next several weeks.



FSC

As much as i hate to admit it...and God only knows what will truly happen...but I'm going to have to say i'm officially long on EUR/USD, Short USD/CHF and $USD as of now. Will update when that opinion changes but for now long EUR/USD.

Going back to my previous post I believed some sort of trough was forming and/or a bottom was in place for EUR/USD. The date that i marked on the Previous EUR/USD chart Is still valid. What we saw on 12/22 was a new minor low which under this model should not happen after an official bottom is in place... and i must admit that scares me...but at the same time seeing excess volatility around major turning points doesn't surprise me. My best call for now is that the EUR/USD low is still in place except the model was around 18 hours early forecasting the exact low which right now stands at 1.3107 EUR/USD. I see this as a low risk high reward trade, Stops Should be Placed @ or slightly below the Daily low at 1.3107.

If stopped out and the market manages to hold above the 1.3107 mark shortly after then my advice would be to attempt a re-entry...shakeouts are common around major turning points. Its better to lose 30 pips 3 times than 100 pips once....so 2 re-entries if need be but hopefully it will not come to that.

Will update as things progress.

The market broke through the 1.3107 low on EUR/USD and then quickly rallied back above it so Still Long...expect at least 2 down days on USD/CHF and 2 up on EUR/USD, today is the first.

The EUR/USD's been in slow motion these last few days...I'm guessing its due to the Christmas and New Year holidays.

There are few things i want to go over today regarding the open long EUR/USD positions and when they should be terminated and also a few thoughts about my cyclical studies that are probably in my best interest to mention.

I was under the impression regarding EUR/USD that the market had to hold above the 1.3107 level in order for me to consider it a valid long under the working model i have going. BTW there is no real significance to that level to anyone except me under this particular model...its no major support or anything its just a level i worked up in my head. The market violated it 3 times since my post around the 22nd calling for some bottoming action, but managed all 3 times to get right back above it. Today was the first day the level actually held and throughout the day it was not violated...that is good.

Presently the markets sitting at 1.3161 and it seems to be steadily climbing so I'm feeling this particular model has accurately forecasted a bottom.

1) Now the question remains.... if a bottom is in place at least for another week or so when will be the best time to start unwinding the long positions? Based on my studies i'm getting 2 seperate dates one sooner and 1 later. I'm going to post both scenerios here but its going to require 2 seperate posts in order to see them both on this page of the forum.

2) the second thing i wanted to mention and i'm going to try and sum this up in as few words as possible .....if you notice the 1st Scenerio EUR/USD chart i marked 2 horizontal yellow lines on the chart. What i am trying to show you here is that if the market doesn't move in the direction forecasted by the model.... or if it only does for a short time and then quickly reverses in the opposite direction....that signifies to me that the market is trending and the next signal should trigger a greater move pip wise than the first. For example if people are buying into the market after one of the models triggers a buy signal but the market only moves 100 pips and then quickly reverses to make a new daily low(opposite for shorts) its telling me that when that sell signal hits its going to be twice as strong because the market is lacking the buyers needed to carry it through that particular cycle...aka the sellers are dominating or vice versa. Its easier to see on a chart than expalin... thats why i drew yellow lines above the 2 occasions it has happened under this particular model. Hope that helps ( :.... The reason i'm mentioning this is its possible it could happen, so be aware if it does...and if it does then next short signal that is triggered should be significant...but IMHO i think this will not happen...at least not on this call... but i could be wrong so be aware.

If a bottom is truly in place i'm seeing a strong possibilty that it could continue into the 10th of January, only time will tell.

I could be wrong but i do not think EUR/USD is topping.

Well it looks like EUR/USD was topping ( :....the market retraced 3 points so the original model i posted 2 weeks ago (***scenario1 on page 2) was correct. I'll admit thats one of my problems some times I draw up a solid model and then end up choosing a newer one to trade. My goal here is to try to see as many alternates as possible and its easy to get overwhelmed with all the different scenarios (in this case there were only 2 and it was still difficult for me to choose the right one). The goal is to take all alternates seriously and then trade the one which price action fits and in this particular case as of the strong sell off on 1/03/07 scenario1 should have become my preferred model. Thats one of the great things about having all the evidence posted up on the forums.... based on scenerio1 there was no doubt that there was a viable short this week on EUR/USD. Despite this evidence being clear as day posted on the forum i still failed to heed it and missed a nice move on EUR/USD. Whats the old saying some people can know the direction of th market and still fail to make money...well that was me this week ( :

There is something significant about the 1/10/07 date though (scenerio 2 on page 3) thats one hell of a solid model and i'm inclined to monitor that at this point because i think its going to trigger some good signals soon... not to mention i'm seeing potential for some sideways action on GBP/USD. Possible we could even have a 78.6 retracement or so from the high...wouldn't surprise me to see new highs either. Considering the recent fall in EUR/USD and GBP/USD I can't say i would want to be short on either of those contracts right now even though i think there is potential for them to go lower. Probably best to wait for some time before entering any longer term trades especially short.

SUMMARY

I need to update my present models and come up with some new alternates and thats going to take some time. I think the cycles are beginning to expand or contract slightly and I don't feel either of the models i have posted presently are best to be traded right now... There is definitley a strong posibility the USD/CHF could rally for another week + theres is also the possibility of it reversing as of right now or tomorrow and falling to new lows from this point...if i had to trade either side i would look to play it long but for now i'm not comfortable with that so i choose to stand back until things become clearer. Thinking there is some significance to 1/10/07 and I believe things will become clearer by then.

Will update soon!!

This is a highly accurate model that has been holding up well the last several months...It's based off an 18.5 week cycle that has been prevalent in the USD/CHF. If i had to take positions in the market right now my preference would be long USD/CHF. Recently this models signals have been inverting and inversions, from my experience, are usually a sign of a strong underlying trend which in this case IMHO is down. If the model is correct the decline of the USD/CHF to new lows should begin on or around the date of 1/19/2007 (my estimate for an exact date of the high stands now between 1/16-1/19/07). Presently long positions in the USD/CHF are favored.

I'm no Dollar bear but i'm starting to see serious signs of a major selloff about to begin is the USD, and especially USD/CHF. I'm working on setting up a few different models as evidence supporting this theory. I'm getting strong indications that this drive to new lows in the USD/CHF and USD could begin as early as this week. One of the things i'm usure of is the route these markets will take to get to their new lows.

I'm seeing 2 different scenerios and i'm willing to bet 1 of them is going to be right.

S1) The USD and USD/CHF B-line to new lows very soon.

S2) The USD and USD/CHF retrace slightly from their present rallies then surge to a powerful new high then B-line to new lows. I'm working on posting several models that support these 2 theories and 1 in particular.

Either way i think this will be an incredible oppurtunity. One of the analysts at Investica wrote this recently and i agree with what he is saying...I'm no fundamental expert as he but at the least, technically speaking, i'm seeing these as strong possibilities. I wish i had more insight into the fundamentals involved in this but for now i think the technicals will tell all if either of these scenerios occur.

"There is the potential for a further interest rate increase in March, but overall yield expectations will remain lower. In this environment, the franc will remain vulnerable to selling pressure on yield grounds, especially if there is continuing enthusiasm for carry trades. The overall Swiss fundamentals will remain strong, however, and any evidence of weaker growth would increase caution over franc selling. Any sustained increase in risk aversion could also result in substantial franc gains, especially if there is a sharp increase in emerging-market tensions."