Indicator Free Trading - Skunny

Phew. Caught up with the end of this thread. DXTrade directed me here when the thread had been going for about 170 pages. What with taking lots of time studying the charts posted and playing with vhands, it has taken me a long time.

Boy oh boy, the insights I have gained. Skunny, I can't thank you enough for starting all of this. A colossal thank-you to all the guys 'n gals who started out with some expertise already, for all the help and guidance you have given to us newbies. I am not going to name names, because I will inevitably leave some out; you know who you are and I am in your debt.

My only successful, live manual trading had been using fibs, but as a rather blunt instrument. I would watch the eu pair, wait for a retrace from a high or low, draw a fib on a 5 minute chart, enter a position at the 100 retracement and hope to scalp 5 pips. It worked, but was not altogether a relaxing activity.

What I know now blows me away. Mind, there has been a cost. My wife wants to know who is this sunken-cheeked, hollow-eyed stranger who keeps rambling incoherently about inner s\r, t1, t2, whilst occasionally breaking out into near hysterical laughter at one of the postings.

My first practical use of all this happened today. I use the ea from NicoTina's gj breakout strategy (calculate high-low over x hours at x time, then place breakout pending orders with sl 100 and tp 100) to place trades. These are often completed before I get out of bed in the morning, but there was one open this morning.

On the chart, you can see where I fibbed from Friday's low (yellow, the white is Spud's daily high-low fib). I used this both to leave the trade open and to chart its progress. I set a be at +2 as soon as the price hit Target1, then reduced the tp by a few pips as it was a distance beyond Target 2.

The price took out target 2 but would have stopped short of the original tp, so a first triumph for me and the methods\concepts I am discovering here.

Thanks guys.

Hey Guys/Gals !!!

firstly, hh, lately....i've had just a few moments to look at trade set ups in the past 3 weeks, so the tick chart looks good to me right now (LOL). But normally, I trade 1 hr for set ups and 15 mn to manage the trade. I like 1 hr because it has the most accurate candle information. 1 day, 4hr are different from broker to broker, but 1hr opens and closes at the same time around the world. (as far as I know....lol). It also provides ample pip opportunity.(much more than you need to become a millionaire).

I haven't the time to catch up on the thread but I will some day NOT! I would need a 2 weeks straight to catch up.

So, for all the posts that have asked me a question...I'm sorry! I just didn't have a chance to read it.

Take care.

I have been testing some theories, rereading through the thread, and since DXTrade posted the link to the pdf. file someone so graciously complied (I was in the process of starting to do it), I have been reviewing that and all the charts and their comments I have printed out of Skunny's, so although this is likely to be long, and redundant for many, I feel I need to state the obvious and some questions that are rolling around in my mind, keeping me awake.

Support and Resistance - these are the KEYS to finding Fibonacci placement. This has been Skunny's theme since day one, I don't know about some of us, but at times this slips my mind in the quest for the pip-perfect Target. In post# 31 Skunny talks about S/R is forming with every movement. I believe we see this in the Higher highs and Lower lows. Some other posts # 81, 137,143, 263, 295, 389, 390, 394, 400, 406, 407, etc. all discussing support and resistance. In post #825 Skunny gives the example of 2 candles, side by side, one with the new support and one with the new resistance and he draws the fib over the 2.

If one is not currently, we must focus on this. Skunny said if we don't have this, then he can not proceed with our education. (my paraphrase)


It seems some of us get carried away, over thinking things, and Skunny has reminded us in several posts to be careful of over complicated, KISS #625, Simplicity - Price goes up, price goes down, etc #818.

Support and Resistance - where do we look for it, the high and low of the previous day, the h/l of a wave, is it sometimes found at certain fib levels? Could it be as simple as where price stops and reverses, or only where a new High or low is made? Does it form around other fib levels of the larger fib, even the weekly, when they converge? We all know from our hours and hours and hours of testing, backward and forward, that Price respects these "LINES" on our chart because there is some Cosmic order in control.

The matter of pip-perfect Targets. There are at least a few variables that can cause a variance, data feed, human error in placement, etc. When I was Studying Skunny's chart I saw that his extension levels are just a little bit different, 38, 62, 138, 162. If one is using the standard and you're comparing charts, could that .2% explain why his reached perfect and mine doesn't? And what about the fact when we are vhanding we see price hit the target exactly, but when the candle closes price has penetrated or slightly broken through our target, was that a perfect hit? I also wonder, if the T1 is hit, and the next candle pulls back and then proceeds to T2, or even blows right threw it, is that a failed fib? I have seen several of Skunny's Charts where that happened and Price even continued on over the next few candle to the T3 or T4 of the Inner Fib to the T1 of the Daily or Major fib, and isn't that the point or the purpose of the inner fib to direct us in the direction of where Price is going to go, like a compass #477? And what about when Price has formed that double bottom/top, and the inner fib target is hit perfect, yet price continues on and on, yet doesn't reach the Daily fib target, I think we have looked at that as a failure, but somewhere I remember just such an example, with the comment that went something like, your target was hit, you closed your trade successfully, you don't go for every pip, that's how you wind up with a loss (my poor paraphrase), so if the trade is successful, are we obsessing to find that perfect fib that gives us the whole enchilada?

There is one last thing that I am mesmerized by, and that is the reaction of price with in the 0 -100 levels, and how certain candles propel price to the opposite level, and others push it to much smaller levels, and these go back and forth in varying degrees all the time, and I suspect this is what Skunny is talking about when he speaks of always being in. These moves can be significant in adding to ones balance.

For any who had the patience and fortitude to read through my ramblings, I thank you. Comments are welcome.

Skunny,

I have a stupid question and need a serious answer:
What's the point?

What's the point of starting a thread and not posting and not even reading it, of letting us mess our brains out and not giving the slightest feedback whether we are all wrong, on the right track, nutcase or whatever...???

I agree with Steve ... being a slow reader myself I had trouble catching up with the end of the thread. Nonetheless it was worth the read. Thanks to Skunny and the rest!!

I have a question regarding when cycles end ... I tend to see in amazement :surprised more and more examples as I gaze through historic data were cycles must have ended because the 1.382 or 1.618 was touched to the pip. Then I can explain why the reversal took place at that point. What happens then ... does a new cycle start immediately of the same scale ?
Does the market float around until a new one starts ? Is there usually a reversal at the termination point ? Any ideas from the more experienced ?

Anyway... here my small 30 pip trade from today...

Enough to become millionaire over time

That is a stupid question.

Why are you here?......is the better question. Not why don't I have endless hours to read a thread that grows by 50 posts a day. I wish I had the time DX but I do need 1 hr of sleep a night.

I get a lot of mail from traders that have gotten the point, maybe you are just missing the point of the thread.

Good morning all - so here's a clear set up from the 05:20 GMT low which pulled back into the DZ, moved up a little and late in Frankie's time pushed up hard to hit T1, then T2 (+158) and onto the time line at the end of the gann line (magenta) for a 196 pip move.

So as its exceeded T1 & T2 is it a "failure" - not for me, plenty of bankable pips available. Now to walk the fib and look for the next set up.....

Black Range 5% to 33% - 35 real pips.

DXT --- trade above, marvelous.

Thanks for the indicator.

Seems to be several ways to trade FIBS. Hard part for me is when to get in. 38% or whatever your trade range % you are targeting, to determine the close, is a bit easier. (3 times spread, 5% above and 5% below, etc.)

Good trading.

Issy,

sheesh more failure... tsk don;t you ever get tired of failing so badly? I am sure you have a lot of time to think about your bad fibs while walking to the pip bank 4-5 times a day... if you aren;t careful Islander you are going to fail your way into an institutional size account before soon.

If only you listened to me about going for Piperfection , you could have a nice series of theoretical systems to seemingly endlessly test on a grail quest, instead of high probabilty wins trading fibs right now. I bet you feel stupid. Don;t worry I won;t say I told you so.

hehehehehe


Sizz

p.s. if your mansion needs it floors mopped I am available..if you don;t mind help that stays up all night twitching and mumbling something about pipperfection.. rofl.

EDIT: DXtrader my german friend ( I think) I get super frustrated too man. I am seriously on this a lot more then my questionable progress may indicate. I have less hair then when I started. What works for me ,when i am hunting something and I get frsutraed or beat down( is to horribly mis-spell frustrated) is I just pull from deep inside and turn that angst into positive anger and apply that fiery rage at the problem and redouble my efforts( or riverdance my cares away depends)

I will dipped in mud if a logic problem is going to beat me.

We have a boatload of pieces and some might argue all the pieces, so now it is an educated, brute force, testing game for me. Just set your goal. If you goal is to be fib profitable, from your posts looks like you are there. We all have our goals and I am sorry, but when i reach mine, no one can tell me I am wrong or right not even Skunny.. point is if you are doing it right by your goals then you are right.

there really is no right or wrong as trading is an individual game unless you share goals. Sorry about posting as you didn;t ask me , but I feel the pain too all the time and thought that might help. Just get super cheesed at the problem for stumping you and get ready to tear its throat out. it makes winning that much better when there is a fight IMO.

SIzz

I suggest for anyone that has not done what sunny suggest in post #45 to go and take the little time necessary to do this and then come back and make some comments about what you think skunny is doing..

Just an opinion....HH

Thanks heaps Sizz,

makes sense

I think that nature abhors a vacuum and that this is a technique that looks to exploit that vacuum. The weekly fib as Skunny posted here may be a technique we can use to find out which way price will get sucked to over the course of the next few hours to days. Using lower TFs we can enter once or possible multiple times before price achieves its target (if it does get there). Just because price crosses over a Buy/Sell line doesn't mean that its a direct line A to B from entry to target. There are many interesting things that can happen along the way, but generally we get to B at some point!

Hey PIPrpro,

On your first GY chart I was deconstructing it for a different view point and I have some questions as it differs with mine.

I agree with your lellow swinger fib.

On your bigger fib you picked an interesting bottom.

Was is retrofitted for S/R action? Draw on 15m? neither?

also your big daily seems to have a top of 219.4x? What up with dat? hehe

Sizz

No - not necessarily

Hi Sizz - all my fibs, if not completed and not hitting DZ are retrofitted. Here is the bigger picture I am seeing - only time will tell if its accurate or not.

Cool thanks!
Also here is snippit of the pattern I am seeing. If you are feeling sinister, look at that on a higher time frame. Play around with it if you have time. Pure pa gets harder to read the lower tf you go. like it takeit, hate it leave it. Something good let me know.

It goes the other way too. Just have to figure out if you are in one and what way the wind is blowing. Also tfs are really helpful. This would not be a 15 min fib IMO.

Sizz

I trust that everyone following GJ on the 5 min chart will have seen the great entry after the pull back from this mornings High failed to carry on up and gave a Sell on the exit from the DZ in the 14:30GMT candle.

That went straight down to hit the 138 extension - OK so it overshot by 4 pips, making it a 79 pip fall...... this is a good way to start the week!

However, the interesting chart is of Cable, which pulled back into its DZ - also to an earlier low AND to the time line completion of the magenta Gann line with a nice doji - a great "here something should happen" zone - it did.

Just for additional clarity, the low in GJ was into the 15 min DZ - actually 4 pips above the 50% line - oh and a gann line too! I guess that's plenty of reasons to try a reversal buy.....

HH,




Old Buddhist proverb:
“When the student is ready, the teacher will appear”



Gang....HH sees what I see (I think). I saw it a while ago but thought there must be more. I talked about what I was doing but with all the ideas and charts and posts.....I kept looking for the next secret.....the next level. I think we all were sitting around waiting for Skunny to do more than he ever said he would.

Read Galaxymom's last post. Read what HH just said.

DXtrade (and all of us who share his feelings)....consider:

Skunny walked onto a baseball diamond and saw us all trying to hit the ball. Some were using brooms....some using shovels.....some using fishing poles. Some of us were trying to kick the ball......some to throw it....some roll it....some using golf clubs. We were all frustrated.

In walks Skunny. He shows us a bat. WOW!

Then....he tosses the ball in the air and hits it into the outfield. Hits one on the ground past third. Then....he gives us all bats of our own and says; "That's a bat.....it hits balls far......it always works when you connect.....now practice".

Man.....! Even if he never came back.....we are all way beyond golf clubs and fishing poles now.

I honestly believe Skunny has really given us all we need to know to become successful at trading.....enough to turn it into our profession given enough time. I can't ask (or expect) more than that.

Back to baseball....

He may not give us batting lessons; but, with the introduction of the bat and a few demonstrations.....we all have enough to go and pratice and learn with. Some will become single hitters....some home-runs.....some will bunt. But.....all can be successful in a way that works for them using the same tool in a way that works for them!

Perfection is nice but 98%....95%....89%......heck they all beat 50/50 coin tossing or blindly following some lagging indicator.

Skunny told us he was not going to tell us everything. He was not going to hold our hands. He was not going to tell us how HE trades. And.....you know......why should he! He spent years to learn what he has found. What he has graciously shown so far is plenty to start with.....I may never get the Gann stuff.....no problemo......what exists in the posts so far is enough if need be.

Furthermore.....I don't think Skunny wants THE answer on how to trade this laid out on page 250, page 500, or post 4000. Why?.....

1) As he said (and some have agreed).....self discovery is most important here....you can't really learn or understand this if you don't do it. He is teaching us to fish....not giving us fish.

2) Skunny spent years on this. Some of us have spent a couple months.....some (like Sizz) have spent day and night. Why should someone who walks in without "putting in some time learning and helping out others" be given the "keys to the kingdom". Let's not forget.....the markets are not fair.....it is a battlefield out there.....let no one be deceived about how easy this easy by having it given out on a silver spoon. (sorry if this sounds too harsh)

3) Most importantly.....we are all going to develop our own spin to this. We have been given a tool (bat). There is no right or wrong way to use it. Find out what works for you. Long term, intermediate, scalp, filter your indicator system.......all can work nicely.

In all honesty....I've gone back to what worked for me using this. I got too caught up in what everyone else was doing.....too many different roads to follow (which....is the way it should be).

I'm going back to using this tool to fine tune a method of use that fits my time schedule, my available funds, my risk tolerance, etc. What I do may not work for anyone else but that's OK.

Today....I bagged 46 pips.....batted 100%....multiple trades......mucho-low risk......and have come up with a pretty consistent "$ per/hr" that I think I can maintain using this tool. This is good enough to get me where I want to go with trading. With consistency, MM, discipline and increasing lot sizes.....my trip is mapped out.

For what it's worth:

1) KISS (like G-mom reminds us)
2) Re-read every Skunny post.
3) Dwell on every Skunny chart.
4) Think a little outside the box.
5) Figure out a way to use the "BAT" that works for you.
5) It's all good!

Anyway....enough rambling from me. Everything said IMHO...

i'm still tuck on lowells post about 38 and 61 see if u all like this.... love to get some comments and fellow testers


ps there is defintiely a quailt there...just cant seem to bag it


need a lil help here