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Indicator Free Trading - Skunny

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  • Post #3,101
  • Quote
  • Feb 3, 2008 6:52pm Feb 3, 2008 6:52pm
  •  BarneyDog
  • | Joined May 2007 | Status: Member | 300 Posts
Lowell, understand your comment. BD
 
 
  • Post #3,102
  • Quote
  • Feb 3, 2008 7:59pm Feb 3, 2008 7:59pm
  •  hharrington
  • Joined Oct 2007 | Status: Member | 562 Posts
Skunny,

What is your favorite time frame to trade

HH
 
 
  • Post #3,103
  • Quote
  • Feb 3, 2008 8:00pm Feb 3, 2008 8:00pm
  •  hharrington
  • Joined Oct 2007 | Status: Member | 562 Posts
@ Pipr pro,

Hey man, I am a learning trader. I think from some of your comments in the past you should share your setups with me lol

Good luck
 
 
  • Post #3,104
  • Quote
  • Feb 3, 2008 8:24pm Feb 3, 2008 8:24pm
  •  PiPr Pro
  • | Joined Nov 2006 | Status: Member | 312 Posts
Quoting hharrington
Disliked
@ Pipr pro,

Hey man, I am a learning trader. I think from some of your comments in the past you should share your setups with me lol

Good luck
Ignored
Thanks - I'm most interested about your comment that it is possible to trade near perfect. Here is how I responded to one of the private messages I received recently and decided to post it here:

.....I believe the primary course of action for now (until we can incorporate time targets via Gann or DeMark) is the absolute assurance our fib is both pip correct and in the process of completing its cycle. My point here is Skunny has said that perfect fib cycles are possible. He didn't say he in fact does that himself. Although I believe he does have a superior program in place. But as an audited Wall Street manager myself that means different things to different people. We have analytics that slice and dice my performance every way you can imagine.

Even though I can take a vHands test for about any given month with 5% risk and double/triple/quadruple the account there are occasions that I see a 50% DD and have the feeling the account will blow up and of course that is unacceptable. More importantly for me it is still H1 trading often with day/week larger targets so you can be in positions for several days at a time (more time = more risk, a bad thing). I believe Skunny has figured out smaller more precise moves where he can load the lots and scalp quickly vs. sitting for days. He and Bo have both said don't be a pip counter, what matters is balance. My record without ever trying to trade one 24 hour period for the largest pips is nearly 1500 pips in one day, but with that goes larger pip DD also.

So, I am focusing on how the upper time frame affects the trading time frame, e.g. month/day and trade H1 and realigning my fibs to fit pip perfect retracement/inner fibs. And, just as important, what pattern can I find that allows a tighter stop loss and quicker trade. Skunny indicated as we all know that you can enter a trade opposite original S&R penetration for a quick ride the opposite direction with very tight stops, then take the trade back in the original fib perfect direction. I don't have that timing down yet or absolute assurance the pip perfect fib cycle is in place. So - even though I can trade fibs now (and in the past) with decent returns, the risk/DD has to be minimized by lower leverage and I often trade for days at a time which I would prefer not to do.

He said he doesn't use Gann anymore (or doesn't need to) and I believe that is because he figured out the quick trigger for target(fibs) and time(Gann) and now that he sees that on the chart when its about to happen he only needs PA and a few fib lines to tell him where he is going and he is in and out with larger leveraged lots and done. Unfortunately, my friend, I still lack that equation. So, I may sound like a baby - waaaa- waaaaa - I have a good 4x program but its not good enough - waaaaa - waaaaa, but you get the point. Let me know if you are going a different direction and if you figure it out any better.

So, maybe Skunny can confirm the main points above to be fact and it will tell us all, we need to keep seeking that quicker higher probability trade. See ya
 
 
  • Post #3,105
  • Quote
  • Feb 3, 2008 8:51pm Feb 3, 2008 8:51pm
  •  arralou
  • | Joined Dec 2007 | Status: Member | 30 Posts
The market is open and I just made my first trade for the week. I'm not sure if this is what we have been taught. I think each man has to find his own truth to be successful, and I am starting to find my truth, thanks to Skunny
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Do what thou wilt shall be the whole of the law.
 
 
  • Post #3,106
  • Quote
  • Feb 3, 2008 8:53pm Feb 3, 2008 8:53pm
  •  DXTrade
  • Joined Jul 2007 | Status: Take Five | 755 Posts
Quoting lowell
Disliked
Hi BarneyDog and fellow Skunions,

Just a suggestion, I am a simple man and it is almost impossible for me to comment on your chart. In light of what Skunny is trying to teach us. I will reserve comment on anything that is set up differently then the way his charts are. I feel inadequate (sp?) to comment on a chart with all these different trading sessions, ganns, and a bazillion different fib levels, etc. A chart set up in this manner only serves to confuse me and seems to lead in directions other then what the Skunster is trying to teach us, at least for now.

I'm not singling you out, there are lots of others posting charts going in all directions. I think it is fine to personally chase these rabbit trails but it only serves to confuse the rest of us.

I am finally starting to understand PAS/R and make sense of the FX market and I must say, Skunny's basic charts and one-liners are what has gotten me to this point. It has been more helpful for me to re-read the first 50 pages of this thread again and again. Then the last 150 pages. Just my JMHO.
Ignored
Hi lowell,

I don't know what you mean.

Anyway... here my chart of the week, found in another forum.
Serious analyze of the GU... it's the same guys then last weeks winner, I think!

Have a nice week all of you...
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"The only successful substitute for brains is silence."
 
 
  • Post #3,107
  • Quote
  • Feb 3, 2008 10:01pm Feb 3, 2008 10:01pm
  •  galaxymom
  • | Joined Oct 2007 | Status: A fearless gal from Texas | 280 Posts
ELI Is The Man!!!
Mom "To conquer fear is the beginning of wisdom." – Bertrand Russell
 
 
  • Post #3,108
  • Quote
  • Feb 3, 2008 10:13pm Feb 3, 2008 10:13pm
  •  hharrington
  • Joined Oct 2007 | Status: Member | 562 Posts
I had a feeling the Giants were going to win....too bad i didnt bet on them lol

HH
 
 
  • Post #3,109
  • Quote
  • Feb 3, 2008 10:31pm Feb 3, 2008 10:31pm
  •  sizzler
  • | Joined Dec 2007 | Status: Member | 392 Posts
, what pattern can I find that allows a tighter stop loss and quicker trade. Skunny indicated as we all know that you can enter a trade opposite original S&R penetration for a quick ride the opposite direction with very tight stops, then take the trade back in the original fib perfect direction.

PIpr,

I heart patterns. I see a pattern in a lot of succesful fibs but predominately in the smaller tfs. I see it in arralou's fib , but not when he posted it also the fib before it that completed at 106.96 approx when he posted that fib.

It wasn't the quail though as it did eventually, unexplicably by me, fail in testing on that UY fib and I couldn;t explain it... , but your post brought it back up as I was in love with the idea. I might try to dig it up later and see If maybe it is just a great set or confirmation or if it was just insanely lucky. who knows. As of now it is dead to me

If you get bored look for it in Arrlou's fib then look for it in every fib and let me know your thoughts. I would be interested to hear.

If not, I am completely with you on the shorter tfs quicker trades that if my fave for this

G'night

Sizz
 
 
  • Post #3,110
  • Quote
  • Feb 3, 2008 10:58pm Feb 3, 2008 10:58pm
  •  BarneyDog
  • | Joined May 2007 | Status: Member | 300 Posts
No Gann lines. Just 3 fibs: Weekly Red, Daily Blue, Intra-Day Black.

IntraDay Fib is based on the Daily 62% to 100% Fib.

IntraDay Fib 5% to IntraDay Fib 33% would be the Buy Entry and Close Target.

IntraDay Fib -43% to IntraDay Fib -57% would be the Sell Entry and Close Target.

Main Fibs are: 138, 100, 62, 38, 0, -38.

Confirmation of the move in your target directions = 5% above or below the main fib, depending on the direction and what main fib your are targeting for entry.

Profit target = 5% above or below what main fib you are targeting to close on.

Colors just show what market is the primary market.
Currently, it is the Asian market.
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  • Post #3,111
  • Quote
  • Feb 3, 2008 11:09pm Feb 3, 2008 11:09pm
  •  dagoods
  • Joined Nov 2007 | Status: Member | 2,997 Posts
Quoting PiPr Pro
Disliked
Please share your fib set ups or ideas.
Ignored

here is why.... if u can pm me how to abvoid this problem here that i keep running into over and over on nhands and in forward testing then I am all ears and will stop searching for improvements..... but when these failed fibs are potential account killers .... i think more work, testing, discussion and creativity and exploring ideas is necessary.... at least for me....

please do comment on these failed fibs on vhands that go for miles in the wrong direction???? if u can tell me how to not run into one of these potential account killers i am all ears mate....

I agree though that it will be a welcome releif when master skunny returns to take the reigns and steer us back on track.... he did tell us tio KISS...uh oh maybe i am due for a spanking??? dang....

PS is there any way to swittch back and forth among different timeframes on vhands? that would help a lot...

PSS

GIANTS RULE!!!!!!!!!!
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  • Post #3,112
  • Quote
  • Edited at 11:17pm Feb 3, 2008 11:13pm | Edited at 11:17pm
  •  galaxymom
  • | Joined Oct 2007 | Status: A fearless gal from Texas | 280 Posts
Dagoods, I have read many times that it is impossible to switch time frames on vhands, only possible to run it on one, and then on another.

What time frame is your chart?
Mom "To conquer fear is the beginning of wisdom." – Bertrand Russell
 
 
  • Post #3,113
  • Quote
  • Feb 4, 2008 12:10am Feb 4, 2008 12:10am
  •  zenseven
  • | Joined Oct 2006 | Status: Sun is shining | 138 Posts
I'd like to post 2 setups i observed
1 picture - it is perfect trending setup (no more then 38% retracement and breakout of 0/100)
2 picture - it is changing direction setup (to be exactly it is picture when one needs to be careful, retracement more 62 or more, if it is 100% or more retracement i will not jump in, i will wait for 38% retracement from new fib and breakout of new fib to confirm direction - setup 1 or it will show the first direction again)
3 picture - 2 cycles finished
note - i took from pic 2 and 3 away few inner fibs - I think 2 of these fib enough to play interesting game


Additionally, I must say that 2-nd picture is not perfect example, you can see that 2-nd fib has more then 62% retracement, but it is not penetrate 38% of first fib , so it is valid to go up ...
All these things need more testing especially changing direction ...
Please do not trade it
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it's o'k to win ...
 
 
  • Post #3,114
  • Quote
  • Feb 4, 2008 12:30am Feb 4, 2008 12:30am
  •  bronxterp
  • | Joined Aug 2007 | Status: Member | 84 Posts
Quoting PiPr Pro
Disliked
Thanks - I'm most interested about your comment that it is possible to trade near perfect. Here is how I responded to one of the private messages I received recently and decided to post it here:

.....I believe the primary course of action for now (until we can incorporate time targets via Gann or DeMark) is the absolute assurance our fib is both pip correct and in the process of completing its cycle. My point here is Skunny has said that perfect fib cycles are possible. He didn't say he in fact does that himself. Although I believe he does have a superior program in place. But as an audited Wall Street manager myself that means different things to different people. We have analytics that slice and dice my performance every way you can imagine.

Even though I can take a vHands test for about any given month with 5% risk and double/triple/quadruple the account there are occasions that I see a 50% DD and have the feeling the account will blow up and of course that is unacceptable. More importantly for me it is still H1 trading often with day/week larger targets so you can be in positions for several days at a time (more time = more risk, a bad thing). I believe Skunny has figured out smaller more precise moves where he can load the lots and scalp quickly vs. sitting for days. He and Bo have both said don't be a pip counter, what matters is balance. My record without ever trying to trade one 24 hour period for the largest pips is nearly 1500 pips in one day, but with that goes larger pip DD also.

So, I am focusing on how the upper time frame affects the trading time frame, e.g. month/day and trade H1 and realigning my fibs to fit pip perfect retracement/inner fibs. And, just as important, what pattern can I find that allows a tighter stop loss and quicker trade. Skunny indicated as we all know that you can enter a trade opposite original S&R penetration for a quick ride the opposite direction with very tight stops, then take the trade back in the original fib perfect direction. I don't have that timing down yet or absolute assurance the pip perfect fib cycle is in place. So - even though I can trade fibs now (and in the past) with decent returns, the risk/DD has to be minimized by lower leverage and I often trade for days at a time which I would prefer not to do.

He said he doesn't use Gann anymore (or doesn't need to) and I believe that is because he figured out the quick trigger for target(fibs) and time(Gann) and now that he sees that on the chart when its about to happen he only needs PA and a few fib lines to tell him where he is going and he is in and out with larger leveraged lots and done. Unfortunately, my friend, I still lack that equation. So, I may sound like a baby - waaaa- waaaaa - I have a good 4x program but its not good enough - waaaaa - waaaaa, but you get the point. Let me know if you are going a different direction and if you figure it out any better.

So, maybe Skunny can confirm the main points above to be fact and it will tell us all, we need to keep seeking that quicker higher probability trade. See ya
Ignored
very good post!
 
 
  • Post #3,115
  • Quote
  • Edited at 1:25am Feb 4, 2008 1:05am | Edited at 1:25am
  •  lowell
  • | Joined Dec 2006 | Status: Baby Pip! | 229 Posts
If a fib breaks, I think we can safely say it was drawn in the wrong place, huge news event interfered with normal market movement or a bad data feed.
When one of my fibs, breaks it is really a great thing because I get the chance to move it around, check it in different TF's, put it in the right place and best of all learn something new!

Couple of things for folks to try if they like:

1. Try drawing a fib on swings with at least 61.8% retracement.

2. Try drawing a fib from the highest point price reaches on a 0.0 or 100.0 bounce (of old fib) to the candle that completes the 138.0 ext (in old fib).
*Hint: You need a perfectly completed fib to draw from.

3. Draw your fibs before big news events, watch and see what happens.

4. Try drawing fibs with only 6 lines (per/Skunny). Use 138, 100, 61.8, 38.2, 0 and -38.2.

Trade Well!

p.s.- Here's a little something I've been playing with the last several days......kinda purty?
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  • Post #3,116
  • Quote
  • Feb 4, 2008 2:19am Feb 4, 2008 2:19am
  •  PiPr Pro
  • | Joined Nov 2006 | Status: Member | 312 Posts
Quoting dagoods
Disliked
.........................please do comment on these failed fibs on vhands that go for miles in the wrong direction???? if u can tell me how to not run into one of these potential account killers i am all ears mate.............
Ignored
dagoods - I took this and ran vhands and this is what I came up with around the time in question. When you have a target attained and draw the new fib to begin looking for the DZ decision zone hits (61.8 & 38.2). If you are not seeing those hits, your fib is wrong and subject to false break outs, etc. Both of these hit nearly pip perfect and after the fact I looked at your chart and you did in fact have the same fib I did at first. The blue circle shows my original fib support placement, but when the price didn't hit the 61.8 or especially the 38.2 very well I started adjusting. I wasn't sure when price went through the 61.8 because it didn't stop and reverse near the line. But when price stopped and reversed really sloppy near my 38.2, then I knew I was off. One adjustment was all that was needed. Hope this helps everyone!
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  • Post #3,117
  • Quote
  • Feb 4, 2008 3:21am Feb 4, 2008 3:21am
  •  PiPr Pro
  • | Joined Nov 2006 | Status: Member | 312 Posts
another DZ hit. PA flew to this point and then immediately backed off and slowed down.
Attached Images (click to enlarge)
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  • Post #3,118
  • Quote
  • Edited at 5:06am Feb 4, 2008 3:30am | Edited at 5:06am
  •  DXTrade
  • Joined Jul 2007 | Status: Take Five | 755 Posts
I have been coding around a bit during the week end, took the bobokus fib indicator (thanks BO) and modified it.

Now I have a Daily fib indicator which draws a rectangle in the decision zone and a weekly indicator which doesn't.

Hope that helps...
Attached Files
File Type: ex4 DX Day Fibs.ex4   10 KB | 438 downloads
File Type: ex4 DX Week Fibs.ex4   8 KB | 475 downloads
"The only successful substitute for brains is silence."
 
 
  • Post #3,119
  • Quote
  • Feb 4, 2008 3:48am Feb 4, 2008 3:48am
  •  piphitman
  • | Joined Oct 2007 | Status: Member | 439 Posts
Quoting DXTrade
Disliked
I have been coding around a bit during the week end, took the bobokus fib indicator (thanks BO) and modified it.

Now I have a Daily fib indicator which draws a rectangle in the decision zone and a weekly indicator which doesn't.

Hope that helps...
Ignored
can you draw the DZ rectangle to include little dollar signs $$$ in it...
trading naked.......
 
 
  • Post #3,120
  • Quote
  • Feb 4, 2008 4:09am Feb 4, 2008 4:09am
  •  piphitman
  • | Joined Oct 2007 | Status: Member | 439 Posts
Quoting PiPr Pro
Disliked
dagoods - I took this and ran vhands and this is what I came up with around the time in question. When you have a target attained and draw the new fib to begin looking for the DZ decision zone hits (61.8 & 38.2). If you are not seeing those hits, your fib is wrong and subject to false break outs, etc. Both of these hit nearly pip perfect and after the fact I looked at your chart and you did in fact have the same fib I did at first. The blue circle shows my original fib support placement, but when the price didn't hit the 61.8 or especially the 38.2 very well I started adjusting. I wasn't sure when price went through the 61.8 because it didn't stop and reverse near the line. But when price stopped and reversed really sloppy near my 38.2, then I knew I was off. One adjustment was all that was needed. Hope this helps everyone!
Ignored
PiprPro,

Thanks for the tip on "looking" for DZ hits, I noticed the same thing on one of Islanders 5M charts last week. After looking at his chart I noticed that there seemed to be several places to place the swing low on his 5M chart but the candles just weren't lining up right where I would have put my low fib line. His low placement made all the DZ hits make sense and it produced a very clean pin bar reversal right on the 50 line which gave even more validity to a strong reversal which occurred right after that.


I don't think it's a matter of making the fibs to see what you want them to see but you have to find the "right" S/R points to make the fib make sense when you look at it.
trading naked.......
 
 
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