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Daily Cable Analysis

  • #1,061
  • Jan 10, 2007 11:24am Jan 10, 2007 11:24am
let's see if i understand you monarch.

long term, you are looking for a drop to 9200 and beyond.
shorter term, an upward retrace to 9455, then if it does not push through, down we go???

compared to last week, the movements have been agonizingly slow, to put it mildly. is this due to the big boys seeing waht the the ecb and mcp are going to do and say with interest rates on thursday, or are they waiting for retail sales in the u..s. and see if we are in recession or a slowdown with a quick recovery. i did just see a 16%increase in apps for mortgages, so will that make a difference?? oil has become a wingless pigeon, or do commodity prices not figure in here??
  • #1,062
  • Jan 10, 2007 11:30am Jan 10, 2007 11:30am
when did we hit 19160 and 19180 on the 38 fibo?? or do you mean the 19260 level??
  • #1,063
  • Jan 10, 2007 11:34am Jan 10, 2007 11:34am
This is on a Daily scenario.

You would be true based upon the Upwards movement from 11-15-06, I have been projecting a Fibo from a lower point at 1.8515 at 10-11-06.

You would be safe from you reference points, I think the actual movement was already in progress prior to 1.8837 point.

The basis of my analysis is that we did hit a 50% Fibo at the point you are targeting, I am solely basing the extreme at 61.8%, which I feel would happen with such a Large movement upwards that month.

On the Monthly I have a low actually starting 1.8602 on the Month of September 06. The 50% on this retracement would be 1.9225.
  • #1,064
  • Jan 10, 2007 11:36am Jan 10, 2007 11:36am
<TABLE class=tborder cellSpacing=1 cellPadding=6 width="100%" align=center border=0><TBODY><TR title="Post 183328" vAlign=top><TD class=alt1 align=middle width=125>monarch</TD><TD class=alt2>This is on a Daily scenario.

You would be true based upon the Upwards movement from 11-15-06, I have been projecting a Fibo from a lower point at 1.8515 at 10-11-06.

You would be safe from you reference points, I think the actual movement was already in progress prior to 1.8837 point.

The basis of my analysis is that we did hit a 50% Fibo at the point you are targeting, I am solely basing the extreme at 61.8%, which I feel would happen with such a Large movement upwards that month.

On the Monthly I have a low actually starting 1.8602 on the Month of September 06. The 50% on this retracement would be 1.9225.</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>



Im learning everyday....
trading on demo is not trading
  • #1,065
  • Jan 10, 2007 11:44am Jan 10, 2007 11:44am
Quoting mtrmth
let's see if i understand you monarch.

long term, you are looking for a drop to 9200 and beyond.
shorter term, an upward retrace to 9455, then if it does not push through, down we go???

compared to last week, the movements have been agonizingly slow, to put it mildly. is this due to the big boys seeing waht the the ecb and mcp are going to do and say with interest rates on thursday, or are they waiting for retail sales in the u..s. and see if we are in recession or a slowdown with a quick recovery. i did just see a 16%increase in apps for mortgages, so will that make a difference?? oil has become a wingless pigeon, or do commodity prices not figure in here??
I really don't have the answers to all those questions, boy, that would be a treasure chest to understand.

I probably would want to see the 1.9260 point on a drop, to see where we would go. I had made another projection in the back drop of things, and it places us goint to 1.9211 just on the last weeks movement. That would help us better to analyze the data. We have a quandry here, up to 9500 or down to 9211.

Buy your ticket now, it will happen on Thursday by my estimation of time.

The one thing that we must all remember is this, How does the people in Europe and England like paying those outragous prices at the counter. I would think they would like a break, especially since we have had an increase from 1.72 in Jan 06 to 1.98 in Dec.

That my friends would make my wife go nuts just buying our groceries.

The governements has these things all figured out I am sure, and where they end up no one knows. Therefore, we project, analyze data, keep records, and trade wisely during every step of the way.

There is no end to the market, don't wait for Point A to get to Point B on a large scale, you will never know when to enter. Trade along the way.
  • #1,066
  • Jan 10, 2007 11:48am Jan 10, 2007 11:48am
Quoting mtrmth
when did we hit 19160 and 19180 on the 38 fibo?? or do you mean the 19260 level??
Read that this way:

Okay, On the Larger Scale of the Bull Run 10-11-06 to 12-1-2006

Waiting for the Monthly 61.8% at 1.9163
(the 38.2% mark was already reached)

Waiting for the Weekly 61.8% at 1.9182
(The 38.2% mark was already reached)
  • #1,067
  • Jan 10, 2007 11:56am Jan 10, 2007 11:56am
Quoting monarch

Monthly 61.8% - 1.9163 (38.2 reached already)
Weekly 61.8% - 1.9182 (38.2 reached already)
Gotcha...

- Those 61,8% are likely to be reached. We just don't know yet whether it will be a straght shoot or it will send us up to the 9500 retracement from last week down...

Excellent.. Price is exactly at the defining price range of 9260 (last week's low) and 9340, the 38.2% retracement...

I'm watching those figures closely, too. 1600GMT 4hr candle to close at 9330 area, which still tell us nothing..

I'll let tomorrow's interest rate annoucement tell what is it going to be... Up 95XX and down 9200 or straight shoot... (I can't affor shorting now and see prices go up 200 pips before heading my way)...
  • #1,068
  • Jan 10, 2007 12:02pm Jan 10, 2007 12:02pm
This is the usual time for the market to slow down, we probably will be beating the channel hard here between 1.9330 to 1.9360 by my estimation, we have been stuck for a little while at this crucial spot 1.9330.

May be a good time to scalp if you didn't have to give up a spread, otherwise I closed my Short Scalp here at 1.9330 to wait out the time and direction.

Cleared 25 pips on news scalp this morning.

I am leaving, we will catch up later.

I won't be available during the London open, but I will be watching the Low Frankfurt sets for the London Session.

Good Trading to All!
  • #1,069
  • Jan 10, 2007 12:41pm Jan 10, 2007 12:41pm
hello monarch,
i think that we´ll to 1,9450... and you? what you think?

regards, Marcelo
  • #1,070
  • Jan 10, 2007 12:51pm Jan 10, 2007 12:51pm
we have to pay attention to the fact that the daily trendline in the chart did not break yet. as long as it did not break there won't be a real move down.
if price will break down than 9160 is in sight.
Attached Image
  • #1,071
  • Jan 10, 2007 2:35pm Jan 10, 2007 2:35pm
What would you say the most volatile time is for GBPUSD?

I'm fairly new and have noticed its slow from 1-8:30amish

Is that right?
David
  • #1,072
  • Jan 10, 2007 2:46pm Jan 10, 2007 2:46pm
Quoting dberube
What would you say the most volatile time is for GBPUSD?

I'm fairly new and have noticed its slow from 1-8:30amish

Is that right?
I don't know your time zone. But most of Cable is traded from Frankfurt opening 7:00GMT untill London close 18:00GMT(I guess). Some volume seen until NYC close.
  • #1,073
  • Jan 10, 2007 2:52pm Jan 10, 2007 2:52pm
Quoting mosheber
we have to pay attention to the fact that the daily trendline in the chart did not break yet. as long as it did not break there won't be a real move down.
if price will break down than 9160 is in sight.
I DO really like your charts, man...

I am exactly trying to figure out a BIG PICTURE to work into. Monarch's fibs are awsome but, joining the fibs with this big picture is the Holy Grail I was looking for... Thank you so much.
  • #1,074
  • Jan 10, 2007 3:58pm Jan 10, 2007 3:58pm
Dear Mosheber,
Can I seek your opinion?
I like your trendline and it is coinident with the 50% line of the big move up. I can see that it could wait till the BOE interest statement and iether go down or bounce back up.

What do you think about the trendline drawn from the 31/march to touch the 13/oct test just before the big move up. Moved forward, that could position about 1.9070 tomorrow if it breaks through this level.

best
john
jsh
australia
  • #1,075
  • Jan 10, 2007 4:31pm Jan 10, 2007 4:31pm
I am quite officially short GBP/USD @ 1.9334
  • #1,076
  • Jan 10, 2007 4:34pm Jan 10, 2007 4:34pm
I'm shorting @ 1.9323
David
  • #1,077
  • Jan 10, 2007 4:34pm Jan 10, 2007 4:34pm
Quoting kharvell
I am quite officially short GBP/USD @ 1.9334
I have a lock on this also, once we drop below the 1.9300 area, I will add the lots for additional trading profits.
  • #1,078
  • Jan 10, 2007 4:42pm Jan 10, 2007 4:42pm
Quoting monarch
I have a lock on this also, once we drop below the 1.9300 area, I will add the lots for additional trading profits.
I just wanted to clarify that I had my Short entry from the break below 1.9368 line after news earlier.

This was an additional position from the Scalp I closed earlier for a 25 pip gain.

I did not take a Short based on the technicals we are seeing right now.

This is the reason I said I would add Lots if we drop below 1.9300.

I have profits already in this Short position which is allowing me to let play out, for any reason I see indication for a Long here soon, I will exit this Short.
  • #1,079
  • Jan 10, 2007 4:44pm Jan 10, 2007 4:44pm
Are you gentlemen (? and ladies) who are posting on this thread contemplating the probability that cable is going to go down next?

Just an opinion, but I see a long term (daily) trendline which has not been broken and which is currently at the 9322 level. I also see a support level which cable has been forming for itself over the past few hours at 9320 to 9325. It has been unsuccessfully attempting to get past this area and has gotten as far as 9315 before climbing back above support.

Given this, I am considering it likely that the pair will rise to about 9400 before heading down with the momentum necessary to get past the road blocks. So I am thinking that a long for now then a short.
Attached Image
  • #1,080
  • Jan 10, 2007 5:19pm Jan 10, 2007 5:19pm
I've got Daily oversold here. And divergence at the 4hr... Guess it is the same divergence here...

An attempt against 9300 is likely as to put all of them in sync - up, I guess.

I'll consider getting back by FRA/LON opening - as I stated previously, I'm as cautious as anxious, too...
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