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  • #321
  • Jan 9, 2007 3:33pm Jan 9, 2007 3:33pm
Hi Steve,


Me again! hehehe

Do you mind discussing your analysis of the pairs at all? My analysis is differing in JPY...

I realize this is supposed to be your trade journal so if you want to stick with that just let me know (and no offense)! I am trying to get more experience with candlesticks so any kind of discussion (especially when opinions differ) would help...

Let me know!

Derek
  • #322
  • Jan 9, 2007 4:09pm Jan 9, 2007 4:09pm
Quoting Daemien
Hi Steve,


Me again! hehehe

Do you mind discussing your analysis of the pairs at all? My analysis is differing in JPY...

I realize this is supposed to be your trade journal so if you want to stick with that just let me know (and no offense)! I am trying to get more experience with candlesticks so any kind of discussion (especially when opinions differ) would help...

Let me know!

Derek
Hi Derek,

Yup, UJ hasn't been an easy one to trade in January so far. It's the only pair that I'm negative this month and since the big upsurge from early December has been in a pretty tight range, looking for direction.

This is one of those 'gut instinct' calls - the risk is minimal compared to going long with what would have been a 70 or 80 pip initial stop loss. I'd be surprised to see it go much higher at the moment, hence the short but I've been surprised before . The daily candlestick we've just seen is bullish but it's where it is in relation to price that also makes me feel we may just see a reversal soon.

Probably not the technical type of answer you were looking for but to risk 29 pips on my method is nothing really and, if I do get stopped out I should have a better idea on direction.

Kind Regards
Steve
  • #323
  • Jan 10, 2007 6:32am Jan 10, 2007 6:32am
Actually a very good reply Steve, thanks!

I wasn't really considering the stop-loss risk for the initial entry on pairs that had no apparent direction. I was trying to read as much as possible in the charts and was making my move based on this (incomplete lately) information.

I have been trying to enter fresh on all pairs (trading the 6 majors) for the past three days - last night was the first that a couple of them actually seemed to be doing anything other than ranging

On another topic, would you be interested and have the time to contribute to a thread devoted to candlesticks? I was thinking of starting one for the discussion of basics; reading of current charts/pairs & possible direction, etc. There does seem to be quite a bit of interest here and I don't want to continue to litter your journal with these types of questions..

Let me know...

Thanks again,

Derek


Quoting steviet
Hi Derek,

Yup, UJ hasn't been an easy one to trade in January so far. It's the only pair that I'm negative this month and since the big upsurge from early December has been in a pretty tight range, looking for direction.

This is one of those 'gut instinct' calls - the risk is minimal compared to going long with what would have been a 70 or 80 pip initial stop loss. I'd be surprised to see it go much higher at the moment, hence the short but I've been surprised before . The daily candlestick we've just seen is bullish but it's where it is in relation to price that also makes me feel we may just see a reversal soon.

Probably not the technical type of answer you were looking for but to risk 29 pips on my method is nothing really and, if I do get stopped out I should have a better idea on direction.

Kind Regards
Steve
  • #324
  • Jan 10, 2007 8:24am Jan 10, 2007 8:24am
Hi Stevie

I was thinking in the same terms as you with UJ, but maybe we have pre-empted the reversal a a little. It is near its 2006 highs but then again there is always the first time.... On the other hand great calls on EU and GU. By today's closing of the candle we will hopefully lock some pips.

GU had a shooting star kind of a candle plus it was bouncing off the Vegas daily resistance.. With regard to EU I wasn't sure where will it move, except that there was some resistance around 1.3052... Then again for me it is only a hindsight guess. To be honest I figured it will move with GU.
USDCHF still long from 1.2259... Have a drink on me Stevie.



Quoting steviet
Hi Derek,

Yup, UJ hasn't been an easy one to trade in January so far. It's the only pair that I'm negative this month and since the big upsurge from early December has been in a pretty tight range, looking for direction.

This is one of those 'gut instinct' calls - the risk is minimal compared to going long with what would have been a 70 or 80 pip initial stop loss. I'd be surprised to see it go much higher at the moment, hence the short but I've been surprised before . The daily candlestick we've just seen is bullish but it's where it is in relation to price that also makes me feel we may just see a reversal soon.

Probably not the technical type of answer you were looking for but to risk 29 pips on my method is nothing really and, if I do get stopped out I should have a better idea on direction.

Kind Regards
Steve
  • #325
  • Jan 10, 2007 9:19am Jan 10, 2007 9:19am
UJ got me again

OK UJ stopped out for minus 29 pips - update on other open trades later - all looking good

Net gain for Jan: +560 pips
Cumulative since Nov '06: +1892

Kind Regards
Steve
  • #326
  • Jan 10, 2007 9:21am Jan 10, 2007 9:21am
Quoting Daemien
Actually a very good reply Steve, thanks!

I wasn't really considering the stop-loss risk for the initial entry on pairs that had no apparent direction. I was trying to read as much as possible in the charts and was making my move based on this (incomplete lately) information.

I have been trying to enter fresh on all pairs (trading the 6 majors) for the past three days - last night was the first that a couple of them actually seemed to be doing anything other than ranging

On another topic, would you be interested and have the time to contribute to a thread devoted to candlesticks? I was thinking of starting one for the discussion of basics; reading of current charts/pairs & possible direction, etc. There does seem to be quite a bit of interest here and I don't want to continue to litter your journal with these types of questions..

Let me know...

Thanks again,

Derek
I'd be happy to chirp in with my own thoughts certainly - don't be afraid to ask questions here though.

I haven't got a great deal of time & I'm sure there are people here far more expert than me but I'll try & help.

Kind Regards
Steve
  • #327
  • Edited 9:29am Jan 10, 2007 9:25am | Edited 9:29am
Quoting milan47
Hi Stevie

I was thinking in the same terms as you with UJ, but maybe we have pre-empted the reversal a a little. It is near its 2006 highs but then again there is always the first time.... On the other hand great calls on EU and GU. By today's closing of the candle we will hopefully lock some pips.

GU had a shooting star kind of a candle plus it was bouncing off the Vegas daily resistance.. With regard to EU I wasn't sure where will it move, except that there was some resistance around 1.3052... Then again for me it is only a hindsight guess. To be honest I figured it will move with GU.
USDCHF still long from 1.2259... Have a drink on me Stevie.
Yup, it was a tricky call - even if we had gone long today, stop loss would still be around 32 pips away assuming it doesn't hit a new low today (entry 119.35, todays low 119.13 so s/l 119.03) it may still reverse tomorrow lol.

Mind you, in retrospect I should have gone long as you say & will tonight.

You got in at 1.2259 - that's two pips better than me

Kind Regards
Steve
  • #328
  • Jan 10, 2007 9:35am Jan 10, 2007 9:35am
i havnt used pivot points much but do you think we will see the top of USDCHF at 1.2489?

or do you think we will see it climb to that big weekly trendline and the weekly pivot of 1.2572, which also happens to be the 78% fib of 1.1881-1.2771
  • #329
  • Jan 10, 2007 9:42am Jan 10, 2007 9:42am
Quoting ronhickey
i havnt used pivot points much but do you think we will see the top of USDCHF at 1.2489?

or do you think we will see it climb to that big weekly trendline and the weekly pivot of 1.2572, which also happens to be the 78% fib of 1.1881-1.2771
Hey Ron,

I've been keeping watch on your journal - you're doing great

You're probably not going to like my answer but......

Once I'm in a position I don't really think where it may go - I just keep it very simple & follow the trend until it decides I've had enough. That may be 100 pips or 700 pips away - I only really re-assess when I've been stopped out.

This USDCHF long is a case in point - I went long on 3rd Jan and it's now over 200 pips to the good with a stop loss to be placed at plus 132 tonight. Same with USDCAD long - held since the beginning of the year - it's threatened to get stopped out virtually every day but I'll just keep riding it until it tells me it's had enough.

I know it wasn't the answer you're probably looking for but that's how I trade and so far it's been extremely successful.

Kind Regards
Steve
  • #330
  • Jan 10, 2007 9:59am Jan 10, 2007 9:59am
no that is fine, i do the same i rearly close open positions, i have twice with EURUSD and GBPUSD which worked out better in the end. those posible reversals are just shorting opportunities for me.

congrat's on 20,000 views
  • #331
  • Jan 10, 2007 10:19am Jan 10, 2007 10:19am
Quoting steviet
Yup, it was a tricky call - even if we had gone long today, stop loss would still be around 32 pips away assuming it doesn't hit a new low today (entry 119.35, todays low 119.13 so s/l 119.03) it may still reverse tomorrow lol.

Mind you, in retrospect I should have gone long as you say & will tonight.
Hmm, still 3 and a half hours away from re-entering UJ - hovering around 119.50 at the mo - I'm in two minds at the mo.

Later...
  • #332
  • Jan 10, 2007 10:37am Jan 10, 2007 10:37am
I went long on USDJPY yesterday, with two lots.

Closed my first lot at 119.66 for +28 pips and moved the second lot to BE.

I think if it can get past the resistance at 119.67 it will carry on. Either way I am up 28 pips and will just let the rest ride it out.
Attached Image
  • #333
  • Jan 10, 2007 10:42am Jan 10, 2007 10:42am
Quoting willf
I went long on USDJPY yesterday, with two lots.

Closed my first lot at 119.66 for +28 pips and moved the second lot to BE.

I think if it can get past the resistance at 119.67 it will carry on. Either way I am up 28 pips and will just let the rest ride it out.
Congrats - been checking your trades on the other journal - very impressive .

Different system but if we make pips consistently that's the name of the game.

Kind Regards
Steve
  • #334
  • Jan 10, 2007 2:06pm Jan 10, 2007 2:06pm
OK, it's that time of day again - just opened a new trade on USDJPY, again short with a low risk in mind.

Current positions are......

USDJPY short from 119.60 (s/l 119.87 guarantees minus 27 pips)
GBPUSD short from 1.9395 (s/l 1.9432 guarantees minus 37 pips)
EURUSD short from 1.2999 (s/l 1.3016 guarantees minus 17 pips)
USDCHF long from 1.2261 (s/l 1.2393 guarantees plus 132 pips)
USDCAD long from 1.1656 (s/l 1.1728 guarantees plus 72 pips)

Worst case scenario on these trades are a guaranteed plus 123 pips which will take the cumulative pips just over 2000 since November.

Remember, target is 6000 for the full year so I'm right on track.

Kind Regards
Steve
  • #335
  • Jan 10, 2007 11:38pm Jan 10, 2007 11:38pm
Well, USDJPY has stopped out for minus 27 pips - not having a good month with UJ but overall the system is having a great month despite my mistakes lol.

Looking back on the chart now, I tried to call a reversal too early but the great thing is that the method generally does not penalise me greatly for my mistakes.

By trading the 5 pairs simultaneously and sticking with the rules, the system is working consistently (so far). This was the main reason why I looked at trading all 5 at once. If I just traded one or two pairs it would be much easier for emotion to kick in & discipline to go out of the window.

Net pip gain for Jan '07: plus 553
Cumulative since Nov '06 : plus 1865

Kind Regards
Steve
  • #336
  • Jan 11, 2007 4:30am Jan 11, 2007 4:30am
eek, BOE raised rates

OK, 3 out of remaining 4 positions stopped out - GU minus 37 pips, EU minus 17 pips & UCAD plus 72 pips.

Remaining UCHF long up at present by 186 pips with stop loss guaranteeing plus 132 pips.

Net pip gain for Jan 07: plus 551
Cumulative since Nov 06: plus 1883

Lets see how the market reacts to this and I'll re-enter at 10pm GMT as per plan on the 4 positions.

Kind Regards
Steve
  • #337
  • Jan 11, 2007 4:34am Jan 11, 2007 4:34am
This was horrible, was watching gu & eu it skyrocketing :surprised


you're doing great overall steve
Trade what you see, not what you think.
  • #338
  • Jan 11, 2007 4:37am Jan 11, 2007 4:37am
Quoting karmostaji
This was horrible, was watching gu & eu it skyrocketing :surprised


you're doing great overall steve
Sorry if you lost out here bro - most unexpected news - a little annoyed at my EU - it hit 1.3016 exactly - let's see what Trichet has to say.

It's one of those moments when you are grateful for stop losses - let the market decide how to react over the rest of the day & then place your trade later when the dust has settled (I assume you're trading daily charts)

Kind Regards
Steve
  • #339
  • Jan 11, 2007 4:39am Jan 11, 2007 4:39am
RE UP on jpy gbp and euro??Right
Quoting steviet
eek, BOE raised rates

OK, 3 out of remaining 4 positions stopped out - GU minus 37 pips, EU minus 17 pips & UCAD plus 72 pips.

Remaining UCHF long up at present by 186 pips with stop loss guaranteeing plus 132 pips.

Net pip gain for Jan 07: plus 551
Cumulative since Nov 06: plus 1883

Lets see how the market reacts to this and I'll re-enter at 10pm GMT as per plan on the 4 positions.

Kind Regards
Steve
  • #340
  • Jan 11, 2007 4:41am Jan 11, 2007 4:41am
Quoting steviet
Sorry if you lost out here bro - most unexpected news - a little annoyed at my EU - it hit 1.3016 exactly - let's see what Trichet has to say.

It's one of those moments when you are grateful for stop losses - let the market decide how to react over the rest of the day & then place your trade later when the dust has settled (I assume you're trading daily charts)

Kind Regards
Steve
I'm extremely annoyed at my EU, my s/l was at 3018 and it hit it exactly n look at it now but it's okay i guess cuz it was break even n lost nothing on eu..

Anyways, there is always tomorrow & good luck
Trade what you see, not what you think.
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