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Daily Cable Analysis

  • #1,041
  • Jan 10, 2007 8:35am Jan 10, 2007 8:35am
So far the 1.9368 has held for a resisitance since news time, it has come above on the 1 Minute several times, and just now closed above this point.

Now looking to see if 1.9380 holds.
  • #1,042
  • Jan 10, 2007 8:37am Jan 10, 2007 8:37am
ok closed my shorts, no need to be greedy and I do no like the way it is sitting on the daily support line
Quoting monarch
By the way, I shorted on scalp strategy, but I am not posting my positions for the sake of keeping my input to Analysis only.

I am still unclear the direction for the rest of the week.

We need to meet several key points this week still, one of them is still at 1.9206-12 area below, most of the upper Fibo's are cleared for this downward move.

We have already made a distance of 200 pips in the upward direction, so we now watch to see if this news here has the power to push the price down. Key point to break for today would be 1.9330 and stay below for a downward indication.
  • #1,043
  • Jan 10, 2007 8:39am Jan 10, 2007 8:39am
The Low between the Frankfurt and London open was 1.9373, I posted 1.9360 several post back, this was the Low entering the Frankfurt Open.

Key points I am watching:

1.9380 Open of News Candle.
1.9373 Low during 1 hour between Frankfurt and London Open.
1.9368 Retracement on News candle.
1.9361 S1 Daily Support
  • #1,044
  • Jan 10, 2007 8:47am Jan 10, 2007 8:47am
From the Low at market open 1.9260 up to the High at 1.9455 we have Fibo as follows:

38.2% 1.9381 (reached already - key point to watch)
50% 1.9358 (reached today - key point - pushing it again here)
61.8% 1.9335 (not reached yet)
I am looking for a break and under here, and a closed candle on the Hourly - could be the indication that the Upwards movement we have experienced was just a Fibo retracement from last weeks downward move.
  • #1,045
  • Jan 10, 2007 9:04am Jan 10, 2007 9:04am
still has some downside potential
  • #1,046
  • Jan 10, 2007 9:12am Jan 10, 2007 9:12am
just closed my short position +10 pips, didnt want to get greedy and risk it.
David
  • #1,047
  • Jan 10, 2007 9:14am Jan 10, 2007 9:14am
Quoting dberube
just closed my short position +10 pips, didnt want to get greedy and risk it.
i did the same with +16pip and right after i took profit look what hapened, it dropped another 20 pips
  • #1,048
  • Jan 10, 2007 9:15am Jan 10, 2007 9:15am
lol, yep.... I rather be safe than sorry though... I could have netted more as well. Wonder where its going to go from here.
David
  • #1,049
  • Jan 10, 2007 9:17am Jan 10, 2007 9:17am
I am waiting for a close this hour on the 1 Hour. Looking at the break below 1.9330 just now, and seeing if it will close under this point.

All the Fibo's have been cleared from the movement from last week.

We now must consider the Daily Fibo for the Large movement from 10-11 to 12-1-06 at 1.9186 for a 50% Fibo test. We already reached the 38.2% at 1.9345.

On the Weekly I have a 50% Fibo retracement at 1.9227. The 38.2% has already been reached at 1.9378 mark.

Price should hang here at 1.9330-40 to see if test on support will hold or if it will break below and become a resistance point.

S2 Daily at 1.9327
  • #1,050
  • Jan 10, 2007 10:07am Jan 10, 2007 10:07am
Quoting 59fender
still has some downside potential
as long as we stay below 1.9350 still more to come
  • #1,051
  • Jan 10, 2007 10:24am Jan 10, 2007 10:24am
The High at 1.9455 that we reached already would project our downward move to go to a 1.9168 Low, which would be below the Fibo 50% at 1.9180-82 area from the Daily Movement 10-11-06 to 12-1-06

This would also meet our distance range of 287 pips.

This is not a recommendation for posititon, only an analysis.
  • #1,052
  • Jan 10, 2007 10:29am Jan 10, 2007 10:29am
does'nt seem to have the gas I'm expecting a retrace we'll see, looking to buy @1.9325
  • #1,053
  • Jan 10, 2007 10:33am Jan 10, 2007 10:33am
With regards to the last post analysis.

The Pitchfork on the Daily shows price is in the lower channel, and would be pressing support around 1.9260-80 area, which is the Low we started the week off at.

If price declined below channel line, and closed on the daily we could see a further drop in price to the 1.9180 area mentioned above.

1.9260-80 would be a area of concern, if this mark is reached and holds for a bounce up once again, it would form a double bottom.

This is one analysis I am watching closely, along with the completion of the 50% Fibo at 1.9180. I would expect a 50% retracement from such a large movement we have had from 10-11-06 to 12-1-06.

Now we must watch each support level on each time frame to see if they hold or if they will be breached and become resistance.
  • #1,054
  • Jan 10, 2007 10:40am Jan 10, 2007 10:40am
Quoting 59fender
does'nt seem to have the gas I'm expecting a retrace we'll see, looking to buy @1.9325
I would agree with most views on the post, but I recognize the analysis that are posted seem to have shorter term perspective.

The last several post I have given are analysis on a longer and broader term of time frames.

I have scalped my way on the 15Min/1Hr all the way from market open, please do not mistake short term and long term.

The big money have their levels they look at, and they are on a very long term basis. We must understand their concepts, and follow where they lead us taking these measurements into consideration.

That is why I have a day to day trading along with long term trading.

It all boils down to the type of excitement your craving.

Enjoy Folks!
  • #1,055
  • Jan 10, 2007 10:48am Jan 10, 2007 10:48am
This is an important part of my analysis for short term, even on the 1 minute candle.

I follow every move on every time frame.

The monthly is broken in to the weekly, it is broken into the daily, etc.

Through every move I chart Fibo retracements up and down on all time frames.

You occasionally will not have much smaller Fibo setups on lets say the Large Bull Run during the Holidays, but now we have a high, and it is there where we begin to break down every segment of time in order to analyze the projected areas.

So far, we have been in a very nice Fibo Retracement groove, and I keep every Fibo marked to see which will clear a 38.2% and might return, or a 50% and possibly may not return, and a 61.8% which will be the deciding factor if it will hold or flip the coin and press the opposite.

It is in these segments of Fibo's I decide if they have cleared or not.

We have seen a push upwards so far this week, that is fine, I expected it by the most part if you have been following my post. But we were clearly in a Retracement of the drop off last week. So now we must decided if it will once again climb to this 1.9455 area and go on, or if it is finished and will decline.
  • #1,056
  • Jan 10, 2007 10:52am Jan 10, 2007 10:52am
Quoting monarch
The last several post I have given are analysis on a longer and broader term of time frames.
Monarch,

I decided to stay out in this 9300 9400 range. Too may S&Rs trapping every 10-20 pips moves.

However, we are now about to break 9340 - an important FIB that will open an opportunity of at least 100 pips down to the next level 9220 and then to 90XX area...

I'm now inclined to 1-2 days (or more) trades only, instead of daily rush for pips.

In your opinion, what would be a good set up for placing a short at the 932X area looking for the 9220... Last week's low was 9262, reached again on last Monday, never reached again...

For the record, I may stay out untill tomorrow's interest rates announcements - I'll not take your opinion as a GO.
  • #1,057
  • Jan 10, 2007 10:56am Jan 10, 2007 10:56am
I have noted that I would not place positions on the thread, but for analysis only.

On the 1 Hour I scalped a Short when I seen we could not go above the 1.9380 mark the 1 Minute Candle opened at. I posted this strategy somewhat earlier.

I held the position, even though I had a little, not much of a drawdown going negative against me.

I ran analysis on short term data, and recognized this scalp will stay open, until there is indication it has turned against me.

I have no Stop or Limit on this, it is a scalp.

This does not affect my Long Term trading, I already have those postions opened before these smaller time frames appear.

The object is to learn the complete cycle of a currency, and catch the waves in the middle, while your also trading the cycle.

I hope this is helping someone, I have spent numerous hours just to supply this information, which takes me partly away from keeping the exact log of every slight movement.

Thread is less than 1 week old, and we have had much to discuss and learn.
  • #1,058
  • Jan 10, 2007 11:11am Jan 10, 2007 11:11am
Quoting monarch
I have noted that I would not place positions on the thread, but for analysis only.

On the 1 Hour I scalped a Short when I seen we could not go above the 1.9380 mark the 1 Minute Candle opened at. I posted this strategy somewhat earlier.
What spots did you draw your 1H from?... Thanks.
  • #1,059
  • Jan 10, 2007 11:14am Jan 10, 2007 11:14am
Number one, I would not trade using the projection I have here.

Just trade the area of comfort you have already set in your strategy, which is out of thr 1.9300-1.9400. This was a safe place to steer clear.

Here is some extreme Fibo's I am looking at right now:

On the retracement from last weeks downward movement
1.9506 would be the 50% mark that we may still experience before we head to the low Fibo's. (this in just my opinion) This would place us in a distance range of 246 pips, which I would think we need before dropping downwards.

Okay, On the Larger Scale of the Bull Run 10-11-06 to 12-1-2006

Monthly 61.8% - 1.9163 (38.2 reached already)
Weekly 61.8% - 1.9182 (38.2 reached already)

Smaller Breakdown Fibo Levels (based upon the move this week upwards)
Daily 61.8% - 1.9333
8HR 61.8% - 1.9336
4HR 61.8% - 1.9340
1Hr 61.8% - 1.9335
  • #1,060
  • Jan 10, 2007 11:17am Jan 10, 2007 11:17am
Price should go down to 1.9223.

I ran a fibo from 1.9848 high to 1.8837 low
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