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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #60,801
  • Feb 2, 2008 4:37pm Feb 2, 2008 4:37pm
Quoting quecee5

very nice charting q and fn! i think pipchick would call this a violation of a head and shoulders as shown on your chart queccee.... sure looks that way.... maybe she can post her analysis!


i think she would say we either pull back up to that red line and then drop OR we just drop...if it is a violated H and S there..... I will post a chart soon as well based on what i see shorter term........

fn love your long term charts bud....
  • #60,802
  • Edited 5:38pm Feb 2, 2008 5:17pm | Edited 5:38pm
hey fn here is amonthly gu chart for ya....what does this mean ? lol looks good on paper but....

i like the hourly picture much better is just so much less risky and so much clearer or at least it seems that way/// but i am often wrong.... but with such nice RR .....

daily looks a bit busy with some retrace fibs maybe needed to be touched and tested a bit.... but price still seems like a down trend to me... no higher highs as of yet on any charts.... y fight it?

until the charts tell us something different... you guys taught me that
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  • #60,803
  • Feb 2, 2008 7:36pm Feb 2, 2008 7:36pm
short term
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  • #60,804
  • Feb 2, 2008 9:13pm Feb 2, 2008 9:13pm
hey guys just remember as always to take my stuff with big grain of salt...but here is my attempt at uj..... let me know what u all think...
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  • #60,805
  • Edited 9:35am Feb 3, 2008 9:23am | Edited 9:35am
Hi Dagoods. Monthly GU shows a PinBar. On the 4hr, 50 fib has been completed so far. 50 fib on the Weekly http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=51351 does look like a plausible target.

Keep in mind Friday's close was below Monthly Pivot 1.9732 & Weekly Pivot 1.9692.

Monthly momentum is bearish although 10c & 14c are still above the 100 level.
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  • #60,806
  • Feb 3, 2008 9:49am Feb 3, 2008 9:49am
Quoting dagoods
hey guys just remember as always to take my stuff with big grain of salt...but here is my attempt at uj..... let me know what u all think...
Pin Bar on UJ weekly although price has failed to close above 23.6 fib so far.
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  • #60,807
  • Feb 3, 2008 10:25am Feb 3, 2008 10:25am
Quoting forexnovice
Pin Bar on UJ weekly although price has failed to close above 23.6 fib so far.

thanks for the response! you know i respect your analysis above most others.... but i am not sure i beleive in one of those pinbars....Can u guess which one? I think it MAY be head fake......maybe both are head fakes? I could be wrong.... but the fact that the close on the bar after the pin was NOT above the pin/(below the pin) is important..... but it may take another candle or 2 to tell the longer term direction..... pinbars alone aren't enough for me as far as PA goes..... I like to put the pinbar in context..... considering Gj looks to me like a violated H and S and seems like it poised for more downside short term.... I would think UJ OR GU or both will take it there.... but maybe my gj analysis is off base? could be we get whacked around both ways for a while here///.... as usual i see arguements for both sides depending on your timeframe... lol

but i will study your charts and look at my own again and be careful trading this week for sure.... thanks bud

I just looked at your chart again and noticed you already pointed this out! I get it now! thanks fn!
  • #60,808
  • Feb 3, 2008 10:59am Feb 3, 2008 10:59am
Quoting dagoods
thanks for the response! you know i respect your analysis above most others.... but i am not sure i beleive in one of those pinbars....Can u guess which one? I think it MAY be head fake......maybe both are head fakes? I could be wrong.... but the fact that the close on the bar after the pin was NOT above the pin/(below the pin) is important..... but it may take another candle or 2 to tell the longer term direction..... pinbars alone aren't enough for me as far as PA goes..... I like to put the pinbar in context..... considering Gj looks to me like a violated H and S and seems like it poised for more downside short term.... I would think UJ OR GU or both will take it there.... but maybe my gj analysis is off base? could be we get whacked around both ways for a while here///.... as usual i see arguements for both sides depending on your timeframe... lol

but i will study your charts and look at my own again and be careful trading this week for sure.... thanks bud

I just looked at your chart again and noticed you already pointed this out! I get it now! thanks fn!
well i quit agree wuth u goody..here is a shorth analysis based on the pasil trading system...the daily 5qqe is still yet to cross downwards to confirm the long term bearish trend,though pasil indicator has been crossed downward from 210.30 for a sell signal..usually dis will go for anoda 300-400pips...so i see this thing slowing down some where b/w 207&206 and a possible head back to the upside...here r some screen short
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Imanuel Parsifal
  • #60,809
  • Feb 3, 2008 11:08am Feb 3, 2008 11:08am
there was a couple of very early signal before the fridaybreak out and below are screen short from the pasil trading system..the first is from the 4hr chart..the pasil-indicator was crossed downward for a sell signal from 211.91..as we know it went as low as 208.81 which is a clear 300pips catch..it lata sufferd a pullback at d 50% fibo on the 4hr chart...normally based on this pasil trading system the 4hr break out is for a medium term trend which is b/ 300-600pips...the red line on the chart is the pasil-indicator
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Imanuel Parsifal
  • #60,810
  • Feb 3, 2008 11:19am Feb 3, 2008 11:19am
the 1hr sell signal on the pasil trading system which is usually for re-entry to a breakout crossed downward for a sell signal @ 211.79..and had a triple confirmation for 100pips,200pips,@300pips or taken..screenshots below backs dat up...this trading system is yet to fail me and has been giving me my 200pips steadilly on dailly bases...it accuracy are ware beyond any thing have come across..so i had say this baby is stil goin to the upside 1st 215.area then 217.area watch and happy green pips see u all tmmrrw
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Imanuel Parsifal
  • #60,811
  • Feb 3, 2008 11:24am Feb 3, 2008 11:24am
Inserted Code
but i am not sure i beleive in one of those pinbars....Can u guess which one? I think it MAY be head fake......maybe both are head fakes? I could be wrong.... but the fact that the close on the bar after the pin was NOT above the pin/(below the pin) is important..... but it may take another candle or 2 to tell the longer term direction..... pinbars alone aren't enough for me as far as PA goes.
Bar to the right of the PinBar is termed Inside bar since it has failed to break the hi or lo of the previous bar, it could take 2 or more bars b4 direction becomes clearer on the higher TFs like you pointed out.

Check the weekly UJ charts for the PB which failed to break to the upside on 11/11/07 preceded by one on 28/10/07 which was good for 450 pips south.

It is much better to check for confluence of Fibs, MAs, pivots etc b4 attempting to trade PBs, IBs or any other bars as is mentioned in the James16 thread. More often than not what appears to be a bullish bar on 4hr or daily could often be bearish on the Weekly or Monthly TFs, it boils down to what TF you are trading on.

Inserted Code
 
I like to put the pinbar in context
Good idea since you are already considering the other aspects of TA on the lower TFs.

Back to UJ, price has broken the Monthly Support TL & the current month's bar has opened below it.
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  • #60,812
  • Feb 3, 2008 11:41am Feb 3, 2008 11:41am
Nice Chart ,what are they Indicator(Pasil)?
Thanks,and best regards
  • #60,813
  • Feb 3, 2008 11:43am Feb 3, 2008 11:43am
Quoting November
Nice Chart ,what are they Indicator(Pasil)?
Thanks,and best regards
Pasil is the name of the system he is using, you can see from his charts that it's a combination of QQE, Mom, and Fibs. All excellent indicators.
  • #60,814
  • Feb 3, 2008 11:52am Feb 3, 2008 11:52am
looks like a reverse divergence on daily. i'd say we might see it below 204.60.
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Nihil Sine Deo.
  • #60,815
  • Feb 3, 2008 11:53am Feb 3, 2008 11:53am
Quoting November
Nice Chart ,what are they Indicator(Pasil)?
Thanks,and best regards
dats right its d name of the indicator and it proves to be quit accurate and easy to read... i would be posting regular analysis and trade calls based on this trading sytem dats if its o.k. by u guyz,,
Imanuel Parsifal
  • #60,816
  • Feb 3, 2008 12:00pm Feb 3, 2008 12:00pm
Quoting sycho
dats right its d name of the indicator and it proves to be quit accurate and easy to read... i would be posting regular analysis and trade calls based on this trading sytem dats if its o.k. by u guyz,,
Could you share the Pascil Indicator ?
  • #60,817
  • Feb 3, 2008 12:02pm Feb 3, 2008 12:02pm
Quoting forexnovice
Could you share the Pascil Indicator ?
can u p.m. me
Imanuel Parsifal
  • #60,818
  • Feb 3, 2008 12:08pm Feb 3, 2008 12:08pm
Can you posting this nice Indicator?
Thanks,and best regards.
  • #60,819
  • Feb 3, 2008 12:15pm Feb 3, 2008 12:15pm
Quoting November
Can you posting this nice Indicator?
Thanks,and best regards.
you 2 Nov..and i wish everyone best of trading week..i hope by monday or tuesday i wuld hav gotten a reply from the creator and good amount of you traders wuld hav been able to lay your hands on this trading sytem...though he has made some more discovery of the use of the indicator on different time frames but i believe if a bunch of us should study this system it wuld be a lot more simpler dan it already is
Imanuel Parsifal
  • #60,820
  • Edited 12:48pm Feb 3, 2008 12:24pm | Edited 12:48pm
Quoting forexnovice
Inserted Code
but i am not sure i beleive in one of those pinbars....Can u guess which one? I think it MAY be head fake......maybe both are head fakes? I could be wrong.... but the fact that the close on the bar after the pin was NOT above the pin/(below the pin) is important..... but it may take another candle or 2 to tell the longer term direction..... pinbars alone aren't enough for me as far as PA goes.
Bar to the right of the PinBar is termed Inside bar since it has failed to break the hi or lo of the previous bar, it could take 2 or more bars b4 direction becomes clearer on the higher TFs like you pointed out.

Check the weekly UJ charts for the PB which failed to break to the upside on 11/11/07 preceded by one on 28/10/07 which was good for 450 pips south.

It is much better to check for confluence of Fibs, MAs, pivots etc b4 attempting to trade PBs, IBs or any other bars as is mentioned in the James16 thread. More often than not what appears to be a bullish bar on 4hr or daily could often be bearish on the Weekly or Monthly TFs, it boils down to what TF you are trading on.

Inserted Code
 
I like to put the pinbar in context
Good idea since you are already considering the other aspects of TA on the lower TFs.

Back to UJ, price has broken the Monthly Support TL & the current month's bar has opened below it.
hey fn .. a sincere thanks to u for all your hep mate and great analysis... as u know i am still working on fibs in my trading journey..and i know u are rocking with your fibs and trying to perfect your trading by adding in time..... i have been experimenting with multiple fibs and the skunny style methodologies...(can u tell by my charts? lol here is gu as i see it...again a grain of salt as I am still learning and testing.... but i'll give it a hot and 2.618 cents

gu in a major up move but now in a correction on yearly chart.... which = for us a downtrend on monthly.... it gets tricky because who knows how far a correction takes us ..... but we certainly need to be aware of 38.2 61.8 50 fib levels ..... now the chart as I see it...

the red fibs are our main up and down fibs (drawn tome demark rules style) which give us our correction points ( 38 61 and 50 ) where price will (should retrace to where it will then consolidate and then decide its next major direction..... the yellow fib was a cycle off of correction which just completed to the upside...leaving us in correction mode to the downside once again..... also notice the nice pitchfork it forms


what do u think?

PS am reading the material u sent me on fibs and u must be a genius if u understand all this stuff lol but its great thanks!

PSS i am a bit wary of the gann/ trenlines though ???
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