If you zoom out on the monthly chart, you will see that gbp/jpy is actually in a 30 year downtrend, that bottomed out around 130.97 area (1995). It then corrected to the 23 fib around the 241/243.68 area july, 1998). It reached a higher low in august of 2000 at 148.19 area. It began the latest uptrend to the 251 area around june 2007. 191/200 area is providing strong multiple sma support. The 200 sma (red) has flattened out its slope, and sits below the 250 sma (lime green). the 150 sma (teal color) and the 100 sma (aqua color) have crossed above the 200 red sma, and they are approching the 250 sma.
The 55 sma (brown color) has crossed 150, 200, 100 and the 250 sma. It is approaching the 300 sma (pink color, still sloping downward).
The smaller sma's (22 sma and 5 sma's cluster) have reversed trend and are sloping down to meet the 300 sma (pink), and the 55 sma (brown). Above the 55 sma is bullish, but below the 55 sma would be bearish. It will take more time to see how that plays out. That brown 55 sma is sitting at 210 area and it has been breached to the downside. The 250 lime green sma is sitting at 200.34 area and is the next possible downside target. It will take a massive push to break through this cluster support of multiple sma's.
The ZigZag indicator (aqua color) is showing a 4th wave down.
Wave one began around april 1995 at 129.32 area(11,174 pips upward to 241.06).
Wave 2 began around august 1998 at 241.06 area, and made a higher low at 148.19 area (9,287 pips).
Wave 3 began around sept 2000 and made a higher high at 251.07 area (10,288 pips).
Wave 4 began around july/aug 2007 at the 251.07 area and is currently in progress until a bottom is formed.
So far, 204.59 has been the low of this wave 4 (4,648 pips from 251.07 area). Wave 2 down was 9,287 pips, so we have more downside to complete, before wave 5 up begins.
This is a long term analysis, and we may see consolidation midterm, and short term.
If there are any EW experts here, I could use some help determining the possibe size of the current wave 4 as related to the other waves. I do not know EW technique, and I am just posting what i see with the Zigzag indicator.
The 55 sma (brown color) has crossed 150, 200, 100 and the 250 sma. It is approaching the 300 sma (pink color, still sloping downward).
The smaller sma's (22 sma and 5 sma's cluster) have reversed trend and are sloping down to meet the 300 sma (pink), and the 55 sma (brown). Above the 55 sma is bullish, but below the 55 sma would be bearish. It will take more time to see how that plays out. That brown 55 sma is sitting at 210 area and it has been breached to the downside. The 250 lime green sma is sitting at 200.34 area and is the next possible downside target. It will take a massive push to break through this cluster support of multiple sma's.
The ZigZag indicator (aqua color) is showing a 4th wave down.
Wave one began around april 1995 at 129.32 area(11,174 pips upward to 241.06).
Wave 2 began around august 1998 at 241.06 area, and made a higher low at 148.19 area (9,287 pips).
Wave 3 began around sept 2000 and made a higher high at 251.07 area (10,288 pips).
Wave 4 began around july/aug 2007 at the 251.07 area and is currently in progress until a bottom is formed.
So far, 204.59 has been the low of this wave 4 (4,648 pips from 251.07 area). Wave 2 down was 9,287 pips, so we have more downside to complete, before wave 5 up begins.
This is a long term analysis, and we may see consolidation midterm, and short term.
If there are any EW experts here, I could use some help determining the possibe size of the current wave 4 as related to the other waves. I do not know EW technique, and I am just posting what i see with the Zigzag indicator.