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Jacko's Forex House of Pleasure and Pain

  • #1,581
  • Feb 1, 2008 9:12am Feb 1, 2008 9:12am
OK, so this is really the first time I have "went out on a limb" and discussed my trading plans with other people and had them critique it/them. I have to admit I was a bit nervous. And especially when I saw that Seekinglight had posted a response. I have been a lurker around FF for a year and a half, and I have enjoyed his (your) stuff, especially in the PF (James 16). I must say that, I do not trade Jacko's approach for EUR/USD exclusively, but I found it intriguing and wanted to learn more about it, so I am demoing it with a small account.

There are, of course, many assumptions that every trading method uses. I think understanding those assumptions are especially important with this method because it has such subjective entry techniques. I believe that the basic assumptions of Jacko's method, if taken seriously, may give this approach an edge over time while within a longer term trend.

I did mention that my risk was slightly under 9% in my first post. I shouldn't have phrased it that way in the second one, I didn't mean to make it sound like it actually reduced my capital R risk.

Also, I find scaling in to be difficult with this approach unless you are doing it on quite small time frames. If want to say add more on a dip, most likely you will be taken out by the TSL and it will be an entirely new trade instead of adding to the existing trade.

Hope this makes sense. And thanks for responding. I could get used to talking about trading! Feels good! haha
  • #1,582
  • Feb 1, 2008 9:50am Feb 1, 2008 9:50am
Quoting static
There are, of course, many assumptions that every trading method uses. I think understanding those assumptions are especially important with this method because it has such subjective entry techniques. I believe that the basic assumptions of Jacko's method, if taken seriously, may give this approach an edge over time while within a longer term trend.
You're right The entries will vary depending on the trader and what they see on their charts at the time. What's more important with this particular method is how to use the AH strategy because then it really doesn't matter where you get in, you'll have that as a "built-in plan" to cover your losses should you be wrong.

When I first started learning this method, I was so focused on the entries I lost sight of the AH strategy. The AH is FAR more important. Learn that first then focus on the entries.

I'm also relatively new and still learning so don't feel bad I'm probably going to get grilled a few times on here as well haha.


- Adrian
  • #1,583
  • Feb 1, 2008 9:56am Feb 1, 2008 9:56am
Quoting static
OK, so this is really the first time I have "went out on a limb" and discussed my trading plans with other people and had them critique it/them. I have to admit I was a bit nervous. And especially when I saw that Seekinglight had posted a response. I have been a lurker around FF for a year and a half, and I have enjoyed his (your) stuff, especially in the PF (James 16).
Hey, thanks..I really hope it wasn't out of fear then(the getting nervous)

I just get worried when I read 3x3% => 9% risked...do that 10 times with things going wrong and what's left?
Shambles..
Glad you're trying to figure out things on demo first before risking real money and that you're trying to find things that work for YOU.

I don't know whether this ever becomes that apparent, but mostly when I comment on things it's because I'm worried(one might even say to try and help)..not to "seek attention" or know it all or steal other people's thunder, like some might imply..

I do admit that the fierceness of some of my convictions might make the helpful intent bit a bit harder to see at times

I miss jacko's posts..I'd love to hear his current thoughts on all of the cutting, recession, EURUSD behavior etc pp stuff
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #1,584
  • Edited Feb 2, 2008 12:00am Feb 1, 2008 2:48pm | Edited Feb 2, 2008 12:00am
Quoting SeekingLight

This doesn't mean that none of this works(obviously jacko makes it work); I'm just pointing out the basic math and prerequisites for it to work / the "minimum" required for a positive sum.
Seekinglight, I would love to hear your perspective on WHY this works. Seeing how you are, I might say, critical of this approach and definitely critical of trailing stops, it might add good perspective, if only for my interest's sake

This also, is not meant to be offensive.
  • #1,585
  • Feb 2, 2008 4:20am Feb 2, 2008 4:20am
Quoting static
Seekinglight, I would love to hear your perspective on WHY this works. Seeing how you are, I might say, critical of this approach and definitely critical of trailing stops, it might add good perspective, if only for my interest's sake

This also, is not meant to be offensive.
To use a much used thingie(I forgot the word for the term I mean):

Because the triend is your friend.

That'd be the long and short of it.

Going with the trend means that you're trading in the direction that on average moves more pips.
That's why it's a trend: because it moves more total pips in one direction than in the other. That in turn is an advantage(=higher probability) and that in turn is what all trading relies on: probability on your side

Even at 1:1 odds of a trade working out or not due to a random entry, if there is a bias to one side, the odds shift slightly to one side; and if the spread on EURUSD is only 1 pip(Oanda: 0.9), there isn't that much "loss" to make up for vs what the trend gives you in advantage I guess.

Entering on retraces vs random or highs also increases odds simply if you assume a semi-random distribution of price with a bias to the upside, any considerable move down already having occured(advantage of visibility of past events) should shift this as well..because as long as the trend assumption holds, a trend resumption must take place; and if it does, there are more pips left to move if you didn't enter a highpoint, but at a retrace point -> more advantage.

I started trading with 0 clue and no system, simply throwing EURUSD and GBPUSD longs on without much control or system(other than: buy a little here, if it dips, buy a little more); and they made money because of this.
This of course stops working for the periods in which the big corrections set in.

Add support and resistance bias of round number areas or 50% fibs(if they exist; this isn't exactly well scientifically researched But if you ask me, I often notice a link of "hey, a round/50 nr, TP". Examples include 1.9950 GBPUSD, 105.50 and 106 USDJPY 1.4700 EURUSD 1.4900 EURUSD iirc etc, but this could just as well be imaginary).

So this is random fuzz bias and other factors towards one side vs the other helping odds; now if only there was also some way for price to show you where it's going, too, then you'd really be cooking


As long as there's a trend to follow and the entry/exit intervals are paced and semi-considered, there's bound to be an advantage imho. This is why MA crossover systems also creep out at these times; because basically ANYTHING will work during trending moves, even otherwise wildly lagging or thrashing systems.


The real art and edge over the more "randomly given" is: knowing WHY to do WHAT WHERE.
And personally I hope this is exactly what jacko teaches day in and out, because it makes a real difference.
(It's what I try to do for the J16 stuff as well)
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #1,586
  • Feb 5, 2008 1:30am Feb 5, 2008 1:30am
I am a lurker around this forum and have been quietly looking and learning from everyone here. I have been a small trader for 6 months but was not as successful as I thought I would be. This forex can be a bitch, you know.
But I decided that I want to be a serious traders so I joined Jacko's second group last Friday. I am group member number 5 of the second group, and have been reading all of his blog messages all weekend. I had read most of his thread at Daily FX and his posts here, but his blog is awesome. I DONT USUALLY RECOMMEND ANYTHING OR ANYONE BUT I AM TRULEY AMAZED AT THIS MANS GENEROSITY. He is a big and profitable trader with brilliant strategies and awesome timing but he has answered every one of my questions. I am just amazed that he would spend the time to go through my email and fix every question that I asked.
The anti-hedge stuff is just awesome. He should patent that. And the countertrend plan is really a clever plan. And he has already shown me that PATIENCE is one of the best habits to have in Forex. If I can just learn 5% of his insights for the timing of trades, I WILL be an AWESOME trader.
  • #1,587
  • Feb 5, 2008 1:55am Feb 5, 2008 1:55am
Quoting SeekingLight
To use a much used thingie(I forgot the word for the term I mean):

Because the triend is your friend.
Axiom.

G-Man
  • #1,588
  • Feb 5, 2008 2:24am Feb 5, 2008 2:24am
Let us know when you are bringing home the big bucks.

Quoting wattawatta
If I can just learn 5% of his insights for the timing of trades, I WILL be an AWESOME trader.
  • #1,589
  • Edited 4:52am Feb 5, 2008 4:49am | Edited 4:52am
Quote
Tdion.
Let us know when you are bringing home the big bucks.


Why, do you need a loan ?
  • #1,590
  • Feb 5, 2008 5:06am Feb 5, 2008 5:06am
Quoting wattawatta
Why, do you need a loan ?


You will do well wattawatta.
  • #1,591
  • Feb 5, 2008 5:23am Feb 5, 2008 5:23am
No.

Quoting wattawatta
Why, do you need a loan ?
  • #1,592
  • Feb 5, 2008 7:42am Feb 5, 2008 7:42am
Quoting zoopy
You're right The entries will vary depending on the trader and what they see on their charts at the time. What's more important with this particular method is how to use the AH strategy because then it really doesn't matter where you get in, you'll have that as a "built-in plan" to cover your losses should you be wrong.

When I first started learning this method, I was so focused on the entries I lost sight of the AH strategy. The AH is FAR more important. Learn that first then focus on the entries.

I'm also relatively new and still learning so don't feel bad I'm probably going to get grilled a few times on here as well haha.


- Adrian
Hi Adrian,

Good work....you have started to understand the impact of the A-H strategy.

There is really only one decision that you have to make...what is the long term trend?

If you get that right, you are on a one way track to significant profits.

.
  • #1,593
  • Feb 5, 2008 7:44am Feb 5, 2008 7:44am
Quoting BookerT

.......

Fortunately I do not have to be In the market all the time and that in itself is an advantage I use to my benefit,
Hi BookerT,

An excellent approach to trading !!!

.
  • #1,594
  • Feb 5, 2008 7:46am Feb 5, 2008 7:46am
Quoting static

..........

I believe that the basic assumptions of Jacko's method, if taken seriously, may give this approach an edge over time while within a longer term trend.

.........
Hi Static,

Thanks...I think?...LOL

.
  • #1,595
  • Feb 5, 2008 7:49am Feb 5, 2008 7:49am
Quoting SeekingLight

..............

I miss jacko's posts..I'd love to hear his current thoughts on all of the cutting, recession, EURUSD behavior etc pp stuff

Hi SeekingLight,

My thoughts don't really change anything except the way I trade. I now only bore the members of my little group. So you are not missing much !!! LOL

.
  • #1,596
  • Feb 5, 2008 7:52am Feb 5, 2008 7:52am
just wanted to say hi.... very great thread and advice here... thank you Jacko for your efforts and hard earned widom and for sharing with us...


I was just curious if you have read the semi-martingale position sizing thread and what you thought about it? thanks again
  • #1,597
  • Feb 5, 2008 7:55am Feb 5, 2008 7:55am
Quoting wattawatta
I am a lurker around this forum and have been quietly looking and learning from everyone here. I have been a small trader for 6 months but was not as successful as I thought I would be. This forex can be a bitch, you know.
But I decided that I want to be a serious traders so I joined Jacko's second group last Friday. I am group member number 5 of the second group, and have been reading all of his blog messages all weekend. I had read most of his thread at Daily FX and his posts here, but his blog is awesome. I DONT USUALLY RECOMMEND ANYTHING OR ANYONE BUT I AM TRULEY AMAZED AT THIS MANS GENEROSITY. He is a big and profitable trader with brilliant strategies and awesome timing but he has answered every one of my questions. I am just amazed that he would spend the time to go through my email and fix every question that I asked.
The anti-hedge stuff is just awesome. He should patent that. And the countertrend plan is really a clever plan. And he has already shown me that PATIENCE is one of the best habits to have in Forex. If I can just learn 5% of his insights for the timing of trades, I WILL be an AWESOME trader.
Hi Wattawatta,

Thanks for your kind words.

.
  • #1,598
  • Feb 5, 2008 8:01am Feb 5, 2008 8:01am
Quoting dagoods
just wanted to say hi.... very great thread and advice here... thank you Jacko for your efforts and hard earned widom and for sharing with us...


I was just curious if you have read the semi-martingale position sizing thread and what you thought about it? thanks again
Hi dagoods,

Sorry but I have been waaaay too busy answering all the one on one questions from my little group that I haven't been looking at the forum (Blush).

I will have a look when I get some time....(Mrs Jacko says I spend too much time on the computer....she thinks that I am looking at porn !!!....I wish !!)

.
  • #1,599
  • Edited 8:22am Feb 5, 2008 8:12am | Edited 8:22am
Just as a matter of interest, this is part of the message posted yesterday morning on the group's blog.



Quote
It is 8.45am NY time Monday February 4 and the market is at 4825.

No SMS message has been sent as this message is not time critical at this point in time.

The market looks a little weak at the moment. I think that we may be in a mild correction from the 1.4951 high.... down to around the 1.4650 to 1.4700 mark. (I think that it will get there quicker than some people think). This is a 50% retracement of the move from 1.4365 to 1.4950 with a target of 1.4650.

I will be waiting with a buy order in that area. As we get close, I will SMS text message with a tighter number.

..........

The market has dropped to a low of 1.4644.... in less than 24 hours...(Was that quicker than you expected?).

.
  • #1,600
  • Feb 5, 2008 8:14am Feb 5, 2008 8:14am
Quoting wattawatta
Why, do you need a loan ?
Never say never.
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