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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #11,081
  • Feb 1, 2008 8:17am Feb 1, 2008 8:17am
Quoting bshadroo
what does it mean?out @ cost?!(checked the dic. but didnt find)
Cost = breakeven.


Was this a sin?

We all "know" that news trading is folly, but would you advise against the trade I just took?
Knowing the NFP was about to be released I saw the resistance lines and round number we can all see. So I placed a buy stop order at 1.4917 (just above my horizontal resistance and major channel line).
5 seconds later I'm out with 21 pips, after spread and 3 requotes.
What I'm saying is that although the trade was "only a scalp", it was valid based on a 4hr resistance breakout. Also anticipating the spike I adjusted my expectation accordingly and liquidated the whole position straight away.
  • #11,082
  • Feb 1, 2008 8:32am Feb 1, 2008 8:32am
Quoting Ted1983
Cost = breakeven.


Was this a sin?

We all "know" that news trading is folly, but would you advise against the trade I just took?
Knowing the NFP was about to be released I saw the resistance lines and round number we can all see. So I placed a buy stop order at 1.4917 (just above my horizontal resistance and major channel line).
5 seconds later I'm out with 21 pips, after spread and 3 requotes.
What I'm saying is that although the trade was "only a scalp", it was valid based on a 4hr resistance breakout. Also anticipating the spike I adjusted my expectation accordingly and liquidated the whole position straight away.
yes, i used to do that befor but sometimes doesnt work,sometimes price: up(buy stop order hitt),down(stopl loss),down again(sell stop order hitt), up (stoploss hitt)

so i prefer to go in by m1 chart , after i understand what is the news,this time was risky -18 actuall and previous changed to 82 atleast not clear to me
i remember the NFP last years, they didnt change the previous number and it was more easy to get in,even i can say most of my profits in month was based on trade NFP, but in recent months ,its difficult to analyse
  • #11,083
  • Feb 1, 2008 8:40am Feb 1, 2008 8:40am
Wouldn't classify it as a sin, but has nothing to do with the 4HR system. Phil has a good news trading system I read sometime on the thread, uses one minute charts with some fast EMA's

Is it a sin? Not really, just putting your hand in the cookie jar is so tempting. Sometimes you get the cookie , and sometimes grandma catches you. Or in some countries (and Forex), occasionally you loose a hand!!!



Quoting Ted1983
Cost = breakeven.


Was this a sin?

We all "know" that news trading is folly, but would you advise against the trade I just took?
Knowing the NFP was about to be released I saw the resistance lines and round number we can all see. So I placed a buy stop order at 1.4917 (just above my horizontal resistance and major channel line).
5 seconds later I'm out with 21 pips, after spread and 3 requotes.
What I'm saying is that although the trade was "only a scalp", it was valid based on a 4hr resistance breakout. Also anticipating the spike I adjusted my expectation accordingly and liquidated the whole position straight away.
  • #11,084
  • Feb 1, 2008 8:49am Feb 1, 2008 8:49am
Never pay much attention to fundies, but I be curious to read an explanation of why the GBP/USD sold off 200 pips on a -17,000 NFPayroll?? Where's Pips4Youandme???
  • #11,085
  • Feb 1, 2008 8:52am Feb 1, 2008 8:52am
To me tryng to catch NFP movement is the same as roullett - just pick your color and the house always wins.

I am starting to get and feel my personal ability to only trade perfect setups - it is very tempting to get into trades. There is a little voice inside telling us it is risky - I mean if you need to post asking should I take this trade chances are you already have a little voice telling you it is a no no.
  • #11,086
  • Feb 1, 2008 8:53am Feb 1, 2008 8:53am
Quoting EricthePip
Never pay much attention to fundies, but I be curious to read an explanation of why the GBP/USD sold off 200 pips on a -17,000 NFPayroll??
technical reason:the news was not strong enough so cable backed to the broken TL(look at the circle) and the falls. and maybe gbpjpy cause
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eur.gif Size: 31 KB
  • #11,087
  • Feb 1, 2008 8:56am Feb 1, 2008 8:56am
Quoting EricthePip
Never pay much attention to fundies, but I be curious to read an explanation of why the GBP/USD sold off 200 pips on a -17,000 NFPayroll??
It could just be technical - I mean you could feel the 4H candles were getting ready to dump or jump - NFP proably just gave it the needed push.
  • #11,088
  • Feb 1, 2008 9:05am Feb 1, 2008 9:05am
This is what I'm saying bshadroo, I just went for the individual trade based of the 4hr charts resistance, so I think it was valid on a larger time frame. Not a news straddle type thing, which sounds way too dangerous.

@Eric the pip.
Talkin' of the numbers. The actual unemployment number is positive so that could explain the odd behavior.
  • #11,089
  • Feb 1, 2008 9:18am Feb 1, 2008 9:18am
EURCHF may have a TC short as well as USDCAD. To be honest I am going to call it a week, it's friday and I am going to let the market do it's thing. +115 on the week and I am pretty happy, 0 losses.
Keep taking CT trades, I need more money
  • #11,090
  • Feb 1, 2008 9:37am Feb 1, 2008 9:37am
Hey folks...

Lot of stuff on my plate the last few weeks and more to come. I've got few reports due in two weeks, a week long meeting to attend in two weeks, the website needs a major overhaul (working on it slowly) forum seems 'ok', and there's the possibility that I may be changing Forex brokers. All of this has me a little distracted from trading. I'll be 'around' but I may take vacation from trading for a few weeks, too much going on right now and if I can't focus on a trade set-up or a position....that can be unhealthy for an account. Soooo, if my presence here is limited for the majority of February, this is why. It's just going to be one of those months for me I believe. I'll continue to update the site and working on the overhaul so no need to worry about that. I believe pips4uandme is going through the same thing in addition to moving from California to Arkansas if I'm not mistaken. Either way....I'll be around.
  • #11,091
  • Feb 1, 2008 9:52am Feb 1, 2008 9:52am
Hang in there Palmer... Wow, quite a move from CA to Ark... She's probably out shopping for overalls.....

Quoting Palmer
Hey folks...

Lot of stuff on my plate the last few weeks and more to come. I've got few reports due in two weeks, a week long meeting to attend in two weeks, the website needs a major overhaul (working on it slowly) forum seems 'ok', and there's the possibility that I may be changing Forex brokers. All of this has me a little distracted from trading. I'll be 'around' but I may take vacation from trading for a few weeks, too much going on right now and if I can't focus on a trade set-up or a position....that can be unhealthy for an account. Soooo, if my presence here is limited for the majority of February, this is why. It's just going to be one of those months for me I believe. I'll continue to update the site and working on the overhaul so no need to worry about that. I believe pips4uandme is going through the same thing in addition to moving from California to Arkansas if I'm not mistaken. Either way....I'll be around.
  • #11,092
  • Feb 1, 2008 9:55am Feb 1, 2008 9:55am
Through all the chaos, 21 held on the EURCHF, USDCAD a little less clear to me with that huge spinner this AM.... Have a great weekend, I'm done as well for the week...


Quoting Ryanmcd
EURCHF may have a TC short as well as USDCAD. To be honest I am going to call it a week, it's friday and I am going to let the market do it's thing. +115 on the week and I am pretty happy, 0 losses.
  • #11,093
  • Feb 1, 2008 10:06am Feb 1, 2008 10:06am
Quoting Palmer
Hey folks...

Lot of stuff on my plate the last few weeks and more to come. I've got few reports due in two weeks, a week long meeting to attend in two weeks, the website needs a major overhaul (working on it slowly) forum seems 'ok', and there's the possibility that I may be changing Forex brokers. All of this has me a little distracted from trading. I'll be 'around' but I may take vacation from trading for a few weeks, too much going on right now and if I can't focus on a trade set-up or a position....that can be unhealthy for an account. Soooo, if my presence here is limited for the majority of February, this is why. It's just going to be one of those months for me I believe. I'll continue to update the site and working on the overhaul so no need to worry about that. I believe pips4uandme is going through the same thing in addition to moving from California to Arkansas if I'm not mistaken. Either way....I'll be around.
As you know the market will still be here
Keep taking CT trades, I need more money
  • #11,094
  • Feb 1, 2008 10:19am Feb 1, 2008 10:19am
Quoting Ryanmcd
EURCHF may have a TC short as well as USDCAD. To be honest I am going to call it a week, it's friday and I am going to let the market do it's thing. +115 on the week and I am pretty happy, 0 losses.
Nice numbers Ryan.
Like reading your posts also. Good insight.
  • #11,095
  • Feb 1, 2008 11:14am Feb 1, 2008 11:14am
Quoting Rusty_forexman
just checking out your viewpoint on CAD.
Rusty,good view. Be frank with you, I am not able to handle this pair very very. I have burned by it many times. I think we had better foucus on eu and only uc is in good rhythm and forms perfect candle sticks that we should involve in just like what Philip had done in Jan.
Plan your trades and trade your plans
  • #11,096
  • Feb 1, 2008 11:19am Feb 1, 2008 11:19am
I'm totally confused by how the market reacted to the news, especially the NFP numbers... guess this is why I should always sit on my hands at news time. Does anyone see any reasoning here?


r
  • #11,097
  • Feb 1, 2008 11:36am Feb 1, 2008 11:36am
Ryan,

Question for you on the crosses. For example on the eur/chf (which is eur/usd x usd/chf), do you ever consider the position (resistance/support/trendline)/motion (MA's, etc) of the "base" currency pairs or do you just let the chart for the cross pair speak for itself??

Thanks in advance.
Eric

Quoting Ryanmcd
EURCHF may have a TC short as well as USDCAD. To be honest I am going to call it a week, it's friday and I am going to let the market do it's thing. +115 on the week and I am pretty happy, 0 losses.
  • #11,098
  • Feb 1, 2008 11:37am Feb 1, 2008 11:37am
Quoting rudyray
I'm totally confused by how the market reacted to the news, especially the NFP numbers... guess this is why I should always sit on my hands at news time. Does anyone see any reasoning here?


r
I know Phillip, Pips4, Nadia, Palmer, Ryan, JimTatum, and Erik all sit out during the news.

That is enough for me to sit out during the news as well.

So far, everytime I have sat out during the news, I have been thankful. You get spikes up and spikes down, in the range of 100 pips on a single 4 hour bar.

Many brokers will raise their spread from 2 or 3 pips up to 25 pips. With 25 pip spread, and a 40 point pip stop loss, you could be stopped out in a matter of a few minutes when the market is that volatile.

The risk is not worth it. The market will always be there, the easy trades will always be there.

The key is to be patience, wait for a set-up that follows the rule of the system you follow, and then trade without emotion. If you lose, good, because you managed your loss and got out with a small loss. If you win, then just be thankful to take what the market gave you. Then look for your next set-up.

It isn't a "I was right or wrong" it is a "my trade set-up, and I get xx% winners on this set-up, so lets see what happens".

I stayed out of the market maybe even too much this week. I could have made a few 20 pips trades here and there, but instead I finished the week +30 pips.

I hope next week is back to the normal again!

  • #11,099
  • Feb 1, 2008 11:51am Feb 1, 2008 11:51am
Quoting EricthePip
Ryan,

Question for you on the crosses. For example on the eur/chf (which is eur/usd x usd/chf), do you ever consider the position (resistance/support/trendline)/motion (MA's, etc) of the "base" currency pairs or do you just let the chart for the cross pair speak for itself??

Thanks in advance.
Eric

Funny you asked that, I just started looking at both pairs but to be honest you start adding all this info in and it clogs your trade. I would like to see both the pairs go my way but if they don't I am still going to take the trade. I really dont care on the pair, I am looking for good movement and a trend to show itself. Here I will post a few charts of what I am seeing.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurchf.jpg Size: 212 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd.jpg Size: 217 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd.jpg Size: 217 KB
Keep taking CT trades, I need more money
  • #11,100
  • Feb 1, 2008 11:59am Feb 1, 2008 11:59am
Ryan, I saw you post last night that you were going to short the EURCHF. I was going to do the same, and held out due to not certain how this pair would react to all the darn news coming out today.

Looks like since the news was GBP and USD related, the EURCHF was not affected as much. I should have gone short, but I am learning.

Did you take the GBPUSD short based on the bounce off the top and hope to scalp some pips before news came out, or did you stay out all together due to the news?
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