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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #11,041
  • Jan 31, 2008 11:59am Jan 31, 2008 11:59am
To those that stayed out, well done. Market to unstable at the moment. Will wait for clear motion and rhythm.
  • #11,042
  • Jan 31, 2008 12:04pm Jan 31, 2008 12:04pm
Quoting Phillip Nel
To those that stayed out, well done. Market to unstable at the moment. Will wait for clear motion and rhythm.

Hello dear Phillip, yes out of market. Also waiting for clearer direction as I only want to take high probability setups as teached by you and some others.

Being patient and disciplined enough to not trade when there is no trade is as important as taking a high probability setup.

Thank for all your efforts

sincerely

Shreem
  • #11,043
  • Jan 31, 2008 12:36pm Jan 31, 2008 12:36pm
I had a feeling it was going to be no trades today so I left at 8:00am and just got back. I was right Going to see if anything sets up right now. You have to remember we have LOTS of money sitting on the sidelines waiting to get into the market now that the US rate is crap. They are thinking what way they want to push it.
Keep taking CT trades, I need more money
  • #11,044
  • Jan 31, 2008 12:38pm Jan 31, 2008 12:38pm
Quoting Phillip Nel
To those that stayed out, well done. Market to unstable at the moment. Will wait for clear motion and rhythm.
This is what I need to learn.
  • #11,045
  • Jan 31, 2008 12:43pm Jan 31, 2008 12:43pm
Thanks Ryan.

Don't forge about the NFP news tomorrow everyone...
  • #11,046
  • Jan 31, 2008 12:54pm Jan 31, 2008 12:54pm
Quoting Palmer
Watching the Loonie...4hr at the 21...large range though...Might at least pull back to the 21. Lot's of time to go. Really don't like these news spikes.
Palmer, my chart is different from yours, here is my chart, I should have longed UC if I had opened computer at 12:00 GMT+1 not 12:30, what a pity, I don't dare to jump in at that case.
http://www.sinaimg.cn/cj/pc/2008-02-...0201024626.gif
Plan your trades and trade your plans
  • #11,047
  • Jan 31, 2008 1:04pm Jan 31, 2008 1:04pm
I had a decent trade today on the USD/CAD. I went short at 1.00715, just after 9am EST (so... GMT 1400?). There was that big jump upwards just before that, because of the news.

For me, though, it wasn't about trading the pullback. Price on 4H was above just about all of the moving averages, except the 89. On the 1H it had moved a ways up from the 21. Since overall it's a bear trend in that pair, I felt that it would come back down to test those levels. The MACD didn't give a signal, it was just based on the price and the MAs.

Not sure if someone else would call it risky, but I felt good about it. I closed when the price found support on the 8EMA on the 1H chart, for about 40 pips profit.

I really can't say thank you enough, Phillip, for starting this thread and sharing everything. And not because I made a few pips today, but because now when I look at a chart I see so much more than just numbers. Everything you've said about price action being most important, and about seeing the market in terms of people and emotion. Really, it's fundamentally obvious, but those kinds of things are the ones that we often lose sight of. So you're doing what a good teacher does: bringing us back to our senses

Wishing everyone a few more pips before the weekend...

R
  • #11,048
  • Jan 31, 2008 1:15pm Jan 31, 2008 1:15pm
Well today i've been lucky, placed a long on E/U and get first TP others closed at BE, but it was a risky trade cause of the flat market, got to keep my emotion tighter...
  • #11,049
  • Jan 31, 2008 1:19pm Jan 31, 2008 1:19pm
Quoting rudyray
I had a decent trade today on the USD/CAD. I went short at 1.00715, just after 9am EST (so... GMT 1400?). There was that big jump upwards just before that, because of the news.

For me, though, it wasn't about trading the pullback. Price on 4H was above just about all of the moving averages, except the 89. On the 1H it had moved a ways up from the 21. Since overall it's a bear trend in that pair, I felt that it would come back down to test those levels. The MACD didn't give a signal, it was just based on the price and the MAs.

Not sure if someone else would call it risky, but I felt good about it. I closed when the price found support on the 8EMA on the 1H chart, for about 40 pips profit.

I really can't say thank you enough, Phillip, for starting this thread and sharing everything. And not because I made a few pips today, but because now when I look at a chart I see so much more than just numbers. Everything you've said about price action being most important, and about seeing the market in terms of people and emotion. Really, it's fundamentally obvious, but those kinds of things are the ones that we often lose sight of. So you're doing what a good teacher does: bringing us back to our senses

Wishing everyone a few more pips before the weekend...

R
hi, I shorted UC @ 1.0053 and get burned, if I had waited for one more hour, I sould have catch the pull back.
Conclusion: It is very dangerous to catch the pull back, CT is always a bitter fruit to be eaten...
It is much more safer to trade with the market rhythm
Plan your trades and trade your plans
  • #11,050
  • Jan 31, 2008 1:29pm Jan 31, 2008 1:29pm
Quoting saka
hi, I shorted UC @ 1.0053 and get burned, if I had waited for one more hour, I sould have catch the pull back.
Conclusion: It is very dangerous to catch the pull back, CT is always a bitter fruit to be eaten...
It is much more safer to trade with the market rhythm
Respectfully I have to disagree with you there, Saka. My trading skills is much more into CT rather than TC. I'm not that confident in TC trades. I think trading strategies depend on each of every personal preferences.
I use Phil's system to support my CT trades, and they work most of the time at the right direction.
Hijackxx
  • #11,051
  • Jan 31, 2008 1:41pm Jan 31, 2008 1:41pm
Quoting hijackxx
I use Phil's system to support my CT trades, and they work most of the time at the right direction.
Hijackxx
everybody will find his own style, I always do CTs at divergence(HL or LH), and consolidation. When consolidation, it is easy to do CTs when price hit r/s lines.
Plan your trades and trade your plans
  • #11,052
  • Jan 31, 2008 2:00pm Jan 31, 2008 2:00pm
Hey saka:

The Loonie is looking like it should according to the method.

Price has broken above the 21 on the 4hr, came back down to test it, and is now returning to the upside. The only thing I don't like about this is trading this late in the afternoon....can be stagnant.
Attached Images
  • #11,053
  • Jan 31, 2008 2:07pm Jan 31, 2008 2:07pm
Quoting Palmer
Hey saka:

The Loonie is looking like it should according to the method.

Price has broken above the 21 on the 4hr, came back down to test it, and is now returning to the upside. The only thing I don't like about this is trading this late in the afternoon....can be stagnant.
I agree with you, this is not the good trading time, let's wait until good signal appears.
Plan your trades and trade your plans
  • #11,054
  • Jan 31, 2008 2:22pm Jan 31, 2008 2:22pm
I needed to end that last post with:

Still two hours for that 4hr candle to finish....


Back later...
  • #11,055
  • Jan 31, 2008 2:39pm Jan 31, 2008 2:39pm
I am eyeing the loonie ....

But would like the 1H chart to show more bars to indicate support - right now it looks like it could retrace more of the last up move. I also like to see a good tail.

Let's wait and see - my guess is this will be a long retrace with the 1H MACD giving many false signals into the Asian session so I will mainly eye the price action.

Watching ....
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 1h.gif Size: 24 KB
  • #11,056
  • Jan 31, 2008 2:46pm Jan 31, 2008 2:46pm
Quoting Palmer
I needed to end that last post with:

Still two hours for that 4hr candle to finish....


Back later...
From UC 1h chart, the candle sticks look like Falling Three Method...
Plan your trades and trade your plans
  • #11,057
  • Jan 31, 2008 3:38pm Jan 31, 2008 3:38pm
Hi Saka,

just checking out your viewpoint on CAD.

could i point out that on the CAD daily we still have it trading in a tight range, with the recent candle moving up to the 21 ema and falling below 8 ema. also the 89 sma and trend line seems to be holding the support in tact for the tmie being.

On the time topside you do have the 200sma, which isnt for another 120 pips yet.

Id prob wait for a breakout above the 200sma & tgt close to the 89sma on the 4hr, and see if there is an adequate signal on the 1hr.

However, with the way price action is at the moment, i prob wouldnt trade till after NFP.

cheers

Rusty
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: caddaily.gif Size: 15 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: cad4hr.gif Size: 14 KB
  • #11,058
  • Jan 31, 2008 5:14pm Jan 31, 2008 5:14pm
Quoting Roets
Do you guys combine the Daily chart with the H4 chart?
Please see this post about this... http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=10771

Also on the question of different timeframes........allthough this is called the 4hr strategy... it is wise to base your decision to trade off of the "whole" situation...so consulting other timeframes to get a "feel" for the currency pair is always a good idea....If you base your trades based only on the 4hr chart, your timeframe will limit what you see.... the weekly, daily and 1hr charts will look pretty much the same on any timeframe. Look at the bigger picture and also look at the immediate picture by looking at candle emotion...then make your trade with proper money management in place......dont overanalyze though.....you will see trades that dont exist and skip trades because of analyzing to many what ifs..... just learn the rules of the rythym and look at the charts and see "where" you are in the rythym............If you dont see the rythym you dont trade....take a lesson from ryan and just walk away for the day.......pipip.......Jimdandy
  • #11,059
  • Jan 31, 2008 7:55pm Jan 31, 2008 7:55pm
Short EURCHF @1.6068 stop @ 1.6100
Keep taking CT trades, I need more money
  • #11,060
  • Jan 31, 2008 8:25pm Jan 31, 2008 8:25pm
Nice bounce off the 21.... Swissie has shown some strength post FED/GDP announcement. Holding through the jobs data, or going to make that call tomorrow??

Quoting Ryanmcd
Short EURCHF @1.6068 stop @ 1.6100
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