Jacko's Forex House of Pleasure and Pain | Page 79 | Forex Factory

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Jacko's Forex House of Pleasure and Pain

  • #1,561
  • Jan 24, 2008 7:00am Jan 24, 2008 7:00am
Quoting MPP
comments like that might see you getting a request to visit him for some attitude adjustments.

where is your sense of humour... never heard of a joke???!!!
Nobody can be told what The Matrix is. You'll have to see it yourself.
  • #1,562
  • Jan 24, 2008 7:26am Jan 24, 2008 7:26am
Quoting shinny
Hi,

Probably one of the best decisions you will make... welcome to the fold.

You will learn a lot of things.. but you will learn something very important on its own, which I will let you find out yourself. He is a great guy, with a great sense of humour (pretty sharp for an old man!).

Best of luck to you, shinny.
Hey Shinny,

Less of the comments about age. Jacko is only a puppy compared to some of us.


BabeFX.
  • #1,563
  • Jan 24, 2008 7:31am Jan 24, 2008 7:31am
I would be looking to buy at one of these levels 1.4598 & 1.4525 post employment.


BabeFX.
  • #1,564
  • Jan 24, 2008 8:33am Jan 24, 2008 8:33am
  •  MPP
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Be yourself, everyone else is taken | 2,734 Posts
Quoting shinny
where is your sense of humour... never heard of a joke???!!!
British dear boy!!!! sarcasum!!!!
  • #1,565
  • Jan 24, 2008 10:00am Jan 24, 2008 10:00am
Hoping most of you are still in the trade from 4550.

Thanks Jacko. All the best.
  • #1,566
  • Jan 24, 2008 11:18am Jan 24, 2008 11:18am
Quoting Hundmist
Hoping most of you are still in the trade from 4550.

Thanks Jacko. All the best.
I missed it by 1.5 pips, congrats to you though!
  • #1,567
  • Jan 29, 2008 8:29am Jan 29, 2008 8:29am
Range bound until FOMC announcement Wed. Good time to go watch grass grow.
  • #1,568
  • Jan 29, 2008 3:33pm Jan 29, 2008 3:33pm
  •  MPP
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Be yourself, everyone else is taken | 2,734 Posts
for thoughs that wish to learn more about Fib's Bodokus has a thread dedicated to it.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=50767

makes for some long reading, but will help you understand the power of fib's.

there are also a lot of indicators for MT4, but remember, they will be using information based on candles, things like monthly or last 20 etc so are not entirly accurate as the last swing may not be within a monthly candle etc, that said if you realy can't get the hang of them, try some to add you learning process.
  • #1,569
  • Jan 30, 2008 3:34am Jan 30, 2008 3:34am
Quoting Hundmist
Range bound until FOMC announcement Wed. Good time to go watch grass grow.
That explains it. It was looking a bit... docile.
The market reveals who we really are...
  • #1,570
  • Jan 31, 2008 11:18am Jan 31, 2008 11:18am
anyone bought at 4700 ?
  • #1,571
  • Jan 31, 2008 12:07pm Jan 31, 2008 12:07pm
No, but I have orders to buy at 1.4700. Still thinking about possibly moving it even lower to 1.4650 or 1.4600. I need a good deal
  • #1,572
  • Jan 31, 2008 1:13pm Jan 31, 2008 1:13pm
Assuming that this thing is going to hit 1.500, and due to the fact that the market seems to be expecting further rate cuts (which may mean we don't see a retracement all the way to the bottom of the triangle), I think my strategy is going to be to spread my orders out in 100 pip increments starting at 1.4750. It seems like that has been an area of strong S/R within the current range... also... 1.4650 is near the 50% fib retracement of the move from 1.4363 to 1.4911... (it's actually at 1.4640 buy hey, I'm sure most of you know that!). If the market moves further, which is quite possible, I will be looking for an exhaustion spike/reversal to tell me when to start buying. Hahah, sounds so simple in theory!! I think the advantage to this approach is that, if the market continues down past these levels, the AH will give me definite entries for the move back up with two full positions. Since I risk 3% per trade this means that I will be putting slightly less than 9% of my current balance at risk. Does this seem reasonable to at least one person here? haha
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  • #1,573
  • Jan 31, 2008 2:03pm Jan 31, 2008 2:03pm
9% of your account balance seems scary. I hope you're using trailing stops because then you won't be risking 9% since you'll be covering yourself as price moves up every 50 pips (more like 3% or less then).

I'm just going to sit tight. What goes up must come down... eventually LOL :



- Adrian
  • #1,574
  • Jan 31, 2008 2:21pm Jan 31, 2008 2:21pm
Quoting static
Assuming that this thing is going to hit 1.500, and due to the fact that the market seems to be expecting further rate cuts (which may mean we don't see a retracement all the way to the bottom of the triangle), I think my strategy is going to be to spread my orders out in 100 pip increments starting at 1.4750. It seems like that has been an area of strong S/R within the current range... also... 1.4650 is near the 50% fib retracement of the move from 1.4363 to 1.4911... (it's actually at 1.4640 buy hey, I'm sure most of you know that!). If the market moves further, which is quite possible, I will be looking for an exhaustion spike/reversal to tell me when to start buying. Hahah, sounds so simple in theory!! I think the advantage to this approach is that, if the market continues down past these levels, the AH will give me definite entries for the move back up with two full positions. Since I risk 3% per trade this means that I will be putting slightly less than 9% of my current balance at risk. Does this seem reasonable to at least one person here? haha
I know nothing however that seems to be a decent grasp of what Jacko does and I may add although the AH can get you out of trouble, I would wait to see what the market does at those areas before jumping in considering the behavior we have seen. I will also say that you are doing something I should be doing...and that is working from a written out trade plan!
  • #1,575
  • Feb 1, 2008 12:02am Feb 1, 2008 12:02am
I know that everyone would like more confirmation, ie. price action, and alot of the time I do as well when I'm looking to get into a trade. However, having a plan and entering by limit orders does have some advantage (at least for me) in that it gives you a specific entry point. (Which you can fine tune as well)

If you are wrong (which is entirely possible... probable even) then while the 50 pip TSL effectively limits your risk to, say 1.5% - 2% per trade on average, the AH gives you entries for the way back up. You are basically deferring profit from now till the move back up commences. This approach worked very well on the major correction from the high of 1.4966, and I don't think it worked well because it gave "A" trade entries, but rather because it had specific entry points that made sense, while limiting risk, in a market whose long term trend was still up, and a plan for what to do with a loss.

I guess the psychological aspect of holding on to losses could be the only thing getting in the way of this approach (or a change in the major trend!!!). But, if you are prepared and say to yourself:

" I'm probably not going to guess the exact bottom, so I may have to hold on to a small loss for a while."

Then I think it can be very effective. Although I don't think it's the right approach for every circumstance.
  • #1,576
  • Feb 1, 2008 2:56am Feb 1, 2008 2:56am
Quoting static
If you are wrong (which is entirely possible... probable even) then while the 50 pip TSL effectively limits your risk to, say 1.5% - 2% per trade
No, it doesn't.

Risk is what risk is. You must and can not assume a trade working out when calculating risk. If you calculate the 50 pips to be 3% then your risk IS 3%, not less.

Quote
on average, the AH gives you entries for the way back up. You are basically deferring profit from now till the move back up commences.
This goes under the assumption that the AH re-entry actually either moves into profit at all(i.e. goes past 50 pips to trail you above 0 risked) or is capable of moving at least x pips - the same amount the entry you hedged for lost - into profit.

This doesn't mean that none of this works(obviously jacko makes it work); I'm just pointing out the basic math and prerequisites for it to work / the "minimum" required for a positive sum. And what risk means. Risk does not mean you can "think it down" or "argue it down". It is what it is. If you size 3% risk you have 3% risk. It might decrease from there on most of the times, but that won't change the initial risk to your account.

This is why I think it's important to learn how exactly jacko goes about making this approach so efficient as it is for him(if someone wants to trade like this - I am not one of the turtles), as just the "raw" idea can supply quite variable outcomes.

Related: As far as I know a lot of brokers don't trail from the first pip on, but from the amount of the TS. So once you hit +50 pips it starts to trail, not once you move +1. This might vary(I think this was mentioned before and some go from the first pip?), but this is what I've often noticed as the mechanism in place.

This is not intended as offensive.
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #1,577
  • Edited 3:12am Feb 1, 2008 3:10am | Edited 3:12am
Thats funny, this is not meant as offensive ...it didnt come off as offensive dont worry.
Btw, about the ts, I think most brokers trail from the stop price you plug in...so if I have an order at 1.4700 and plug in 1.4650 as my stop price and my ts is 50 it will move from the first pip it goes up...and if I put 1.4660 as my stop price with a 50 ts then it would move from 1.4710 etc, hope this helps, Raz
Never say never.
  • #1,578
  • Feb 1, 2008 4:53am Feb 1, 2008 4:53am
  •  MPP
  • Joined Jun 2007 | Status: Be yourself, everyone else is taken | 2,734 Posts
Quoting static
I know that everyone would like more confirmation, ie. price action, and alot of the time I do as well when I'm looking to get into a trade. However, having a plan and entering by limit orders does have some advantage (at least for me) in that it gives you a specific entry point. (Which you can fine tune as well)

If you are wrong (which is entirely possible... probable even) then while the 50 pip TSL effectively limits your risk to, say 1.5% - 2% per trade on average, the AH gives you entries for the way back up. You are basically deferring profit from now till the move back up commences. This approach worked very well on the major correction from the high of 1.4966, and I don't think it worked well because it gave "A" trade entries, but rather because it had specific entry points that made sense, while limiting risk, in a market whose long term trend was still up, and a plan for what to do with a loss.

I guess the psychological aspect of holding on to losses could be the only thing getting in the way of this approach (or a change in the major trend!!!). But, if you are prepared and say to yourself:

" I'm probably not going to guess the exact bottom, so I may have to hold on to a small loss for a while."

Then I think it can be very effective. Although I don't think it's the right approach for every circumstance.
Hi Static
in my opinion you are both right and wrong, by placing the trades in the manor you suggest you are saying i have little to no idea whats going on so heres my plan and it's good to have a plan, to a certain degree we can assume the trend will remain, so the idea is not entirely mis guided, but the risk based on this theory is in my mind to high, i would suggest when trading this way that you divide your orders into the 3% of one trade at the most and treat it like a spread order instead of a number of trades. the reason for this is the trend can change and you will lose 9%. don't over trade yourself.

now i think the plan has merit because of the current support/fib lines and therfore we can see a number of potential areas for trade entries, thus we put in some buy/stop orders for these areas fully expecting the price to reach our lowest point, after which we can increase our positions on the way back up. scaling in instead of jumping in.

hope this makes sense,

MPP
  • #1,579
  • Feb 1, 2008 6:25am Feb 1, 2008 6:25am
Typically what I do when price is where it's currently at (1.4881), my plan is to do the following:

1. Draw the 50.0% fib retracement (look at round numbers in that area)
2. Draw your daily trendline (look at round numbers in that area)

I then take a look at the closest round number which happens to be 1.4900. I may take a nibble at 1.4900 but what concerns me is that if you look at the weekly, we're stuck in a range so I rather price drops back first and get a better deal. It's all about the better deal (I think Jacko may have picked this skill up from his wife since she shops a lot, I could be wrong LOL). Maybe I should start treating trading as if I'm going bargain hunting... :

I agree with MPP when it comes to scaling in. Selectively choose your entries when price moves down. When you're in the trade and price moves in your favour THEN scale in.

Hope this helps.


- Adrian
  • #1,580
  • Feb 1, 2008 8:59am Feb 1, 2008 8:59am
There are times when maybe the prudent thing to do is to sit on the sidelines and observe.
What will the E/U do?/ I don't know. It Could break above 1.500.
It could retreat to lower levels again, it could bounce along where it is now...
I will let it make it's own mind up and decide what I will do After it has done so.
Fortunately I do not have to be In the market all the time and that in itself is an advantage I use to my benefit,
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