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Indicator Free Trading - Skunny

  • #2,921
  • Jan 29, 2008 7:02pm Jan 29, 2008 7:02pm
Quoting dagoods
TY PIPR thats an interesting way of seeing it...i never thought of looking at it like that... ME LIKES!!!! appreciated..... now the other question....on that qole double top there at at 1.0988... IF and I know its only an IF but IF it breaks.... then which fib green or red is the target??????? Or is it neither? this is my questions...
That fib on my platform (odl) is not showing any penetration (1.0959) on both candles? not that it matters if price penetrates it though I guess.
trading naked.......
  • #2,922
  • Jan 29, 2008 7:17pm Jan 29, 2008 7:17pm
Does everyone have their fibs ready for the fed announcement tomorrow? This will be the first time that I pay attention to how the announcement interacts with the fib levels. Should be a blast!
  • #2,923
  • Jan 29, 2008 8:23pm Jan 29, 2008 8:23pm
Regarding my last post and the Fed announcement, this is how I'm looking at $Yen right now.

The beige fibs represent the bigger cycle. As you can see we've broken to the other side of it but have stalled right below it for a few days now.

The red fibs were walked down from the prior minor cycle. The downward target on the minor cycle match up with the target for the larger cycle.

The light blue fibs are irrelevant other than for maybe overnight tonight. They were drawn on the 1 hr chart If it hasn't completed by 2:15 tomorrow, I may just pull it off
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  • #2,924
  • Edited 10:29pm Jan 29, 2008 9:26pm | Edited 10:29pm
Piphitman,

I was going over my charts and this is for you Legend. Some pound CHF. As much as I love the franc I personally extremely dislike to trade USD pairs if I ahve a choice. there I said it. So this is my franc trade of choice this or JPY. I am breaking the rules so for intents and purpouses.. the is and EU chart wink wink .


First chart my last three fib progression and last chart My last fib with last two mini fibs for early entry; 0. LIttle 30-40 pipper scalp. this pair I love. Very dignified. IMO.

I would play it on the break of the 100 of my last realy active mini as it would breach the 100 of my blue fib. open shut. I would just set a market order and a conservative tp make sure MM is rocking and go to sleep wake up with some money or a hit STOP

Sizz.


Bronx -that IS exciting your fib will be totally fine if it is drawn right imo. MIght freak out and bust up the other side of the range but it won;t break. LIke you might get s pierce on the 0 only to have it whack the 100 132 and come back down..Lets see.
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  • #2,925
  • Jan 29, 2008 9:49pm Jan 29, 2008 9:49pm
Quoting sizzler
Piphitman,

I was going over my charts and this is for you Legend. Some pound CHF. As much as I love the franc I personally extremely dislike to trade USD pairs if I ahve a choice. there I said it. So this is my franc trade of choice this or JPY. I am breaking the rules for you so for intents and purpouses.. the is and EU chart wink wink .


First chart my last three fib progression and last chart MY last fib with last two mini fibs for early entry; 0. LIttle 30-40 pipper scalp. this pair I love. Very dignified. IMO.

I would play it on the break of the 100 of my last realy active mini as it would breach the 100 of my blue fib. open shut. I would just set a market order and a conservative tp make sure MM is rocking and go to sleep wake up with some money or a hit STOp

Sizz.


Bronx -that IS exciting your fib will be totally fine if it is drawn right imo. MIght freak out and bust up the other side of the range but it won;t break. LIke you might get s pierce on the 0 only to have it whack the 100 132 and come back down..Lets see.
I like it Sizzler, very nice walk up, I'm sure on the 15M & 5M it looked pretty clean too huh......wink....wink

I'm going to put the pound/swissy in my quiver and watch it more closely for trades. I was reading on FF that it's trading range is almost as much as the geppy?? After watching it move last night and today it sure seems like it gets a lot of action.

Do I need to be aware of any correlation pairs to stay away from on this bad boy?
trading naked.......
  • #2,926
  • Edited 11:25pm Jan 29, 2008 11:14pm | Edited 11:25pm
For your viewing pleasure! 1 minute U/J.

p.s. - the red and orange fibs were placed live before, completion

p.p.s - blame the Sizzlemonster
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  • #2,927
  • Jan 29, 2008 11:17pm Jan 29, 2008 11:17pm
Quoting dagoods
TY PIPR thats an interesting way of seeing it...i never thought of looking at it like that... ME LIKES!!!! appreciated..... now the other question....on that qole double top there at at 1.0988... IF and I know its only an IF but IF it breaks.... then which fib green or red is the target??????? Or is it neither? this is my questions...
Nicholas Darvas, may or not be a name familiar to you. In the mid 1950's he turned approx $30k into $2+MM in about 18 months (this data approx - don't want to spend the time grabbing the book right now to be exact). It was a fun read for me in the early 80's and I literally tore the charts apart and analyzed. He used what is known as the Darvas box system wherein: on a bullish trend a new high is found by not being surpassed for three successive bars and then after the new high , the low support is found once again after the new low / support has not been surpassed for 3 bars.

So, utilizing his methodology for finding the order of support and resistance(although he did not mention or use Fibonacci), in a bullish trend your Fibonacci line would have been a backslash fib "\" (high/resistance then low/support), but in a bearish trend your fib would be a forward slash "/" fib.

BUT - if you review Skunny's charts he has done it both ways. So, from Skunny's viewpoint we don't have that answer yet, except that extensions are the king and you must make your fibs fit then keep or throw away waiting for the cycles to complete.

Regarding your fibs - I will not chose at this time because I am not using either of your fibs. They are not currently proving either the 61.8 or 38.2. They are stalled in the decision zone and until which time one of them shows support or resistance on either of those fibs, I believe you are looking for answers you don't have clues to yet.

If you look at the fib I drew hours ago, it has touched or pierced the 38.2 depending on your broker/prime bank and the 100 and has now been riding the 61.8 for 5 hours. Until it breaks away from one of the internal fibs I would not be willing to place a trade. I don't trade the "frankie" so take all of this with a grain of salt if you need to.
  • #2,928
  • Jan 29, 2008 11:25pm Jan 29, 2008 11:25pm
Hi guys

here my GJ chart for today (sorry, but I LOVE this pair)
Note.... we are in a Fed and NFP week, so choppy small ranges are normal!

The red rectangles are my long/short areas.
Short there because its the sell area of the small fib and the down break of the 61.8 retrace of the bigger one.

Long because its a upper break of the 38.2 retracements of both fibs.
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"The only successful substitute for brains is silence."
  • #2,929
  • Jan 30, 2008 1:06am Jan 30, 2008 1:06am
Does anyone remember Skunny posting a progression of charts walking the smaller fib inside the Daily?
Mom "To conquer fear is the beginning of wisdom." – Bertrand Russell
  • #2,930
  • Edited 2:40am Jan 30, 2008 2:07am | Edited 2:40am
Good morning - as I do trade frankie and I see a post about how can we trade off the inner fibs - aka the Decision Zone here's a trade I've just taken.

So I'm watching the 15m, but trading off the 5m.

The 6am green candle entered the DZ. The next candle - almost a doji spiked out of the top of the DZ. The next was a red candle and it just broke the bottom of the DZ - so here was a clear sell on the exit of the DZ.

The prior low - the 0 / 100 line at 212.11 also broke, but the short was from say 212.50, so already well in profit - IMO very important as we DO NOT KNOW if this 212.11 support will hold or have a small "fakeout" / stop sweeping spike through and then reverse.

It broke, then we had the 212.00 level - another important level - here UJ was pulling GJ down and so the 00 broke too. Cable was flat, so I checked UJ and noticed that its S 1 pivot was close, and so calculated a GJ price from the UJ pivot and place a limit order to exit at 211.86 which was hit. A great 50 or so pip start to the European session.

I then walked my 5m fib using the 212.81 high and the new 211.84 low and a few moments later had another sell on the exit of the DZ. For this agressive trading in this choppy market, as soon as I am 11 pips in profit I place a stop at +1 - this was hit as the move reversed.

So now I'll wait for the next set up, probably after LO

Edit: This was all about trading with the SkBoFibs - and using them in conjunction with researched data of market action around FO and LO - the fact that the low came in 4 mins after the FO came as no surprise and neither did I look for T1 to be hit - a ~15 pip overshoot from a 100 level happens frequently. Also, we can expect a choppy, sideways market until the FOMC and other US data is out - so its "hit and run" trades for me today.
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Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #2,931
  • Jan 30, 2008 3:52am Jan 30, 2008 3:52am
Quoting lowell
For your viewing pleasure! 1 minute U/J.

p.s. - the red and orange fibs were placed live before, completion

p.p.s - blame the Sizzlemonster

Lowell,

that doesn;t look like one of my fibs! where is the failure?I can;t hear any p and Ls screaming. Also Lowell..hello the 1 min is all noise so I don't know what kind of funky gumbo, bayou witchcraft charting you are using! next you will tell me you can almost pinpoint accurate chart the poundyen 1M and that the 1m is basically the M1 is 15M is h4 is d1 too HERESY!!! LIES!!..LOL !!

seriously you can blame me for a chart like that any day. In fact, scale up a time frame or deaux and we are cooking with gas! Awesome gas! wait CAN you cook with nitrous oxide? hehe anywho I heart your fibs...Aaa lot, ohhh lote,, eh leeet I likey likey!


Issy,

IFIBS think about it Brother. You are really putting together something here.

Also, You have your own jargon already. I mean I seriously, might refer to that period of time as FOLO FO'eva now. LONYO! NYOSO! SOFO! FOLO!

man Issy, I hope FO means the bankfurt open otherwise I just spouted gibberish..well best to get the dumb out of the way early..too bad for me it is an all day thing hehe


Sizz

.
  • #2,932
  • Jan 30, 2008 6:19am Jan 30, 2008 6:19am
GBP/JPY follows the weekly fibs. Also said not to enter on break of 0-100 but enter on retracement to 38 or 61.8. If this is the case then we should see that this is a prime setup on this pair. Regardless of news.
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  • #2,933
  • Edited 7:25am Jan 30, 2008 7:19am | Edited 7:25am
Quoting DollaBill
GBP/JPY follows the weekly fibs. Also said not to enter on break of 0-100 but enter on retracement to 38 or 61.8. If this is the case then we should see that this is a prime setup on this pair. Regardless of news.
Db,

I missed the weekly thing interesting can you reference it for review? Also I assume you are meaning enter on retrace after pierce?

I wanted to counter point for discussion and to see your view. My weekly looks like the top one and by my way we really have nothing but a weekly range play. the blue fib on the spinner.

Also here is the H4 view for more clarity( can trade from this view or p and confirms the fib for me)

I guess what I am trying to counterpoint at by this is saying:

I think we have a dynamite play right now(there are fibs all over the place I am only showing that one) and I don't know what you are looking at.

I have been completeing 1hrs and 15 mins in this this range all week. Do you primarily play long terms with these fibs then? if so I am itneresteed to hear your strateegeery GreenbackWilliam.

Side note

interestingly enough in the context of fibs I am no longer aware of economic data or price as a significant concept, just as a thing. Fibs take pysch out of the picture for me. Like EU at 1.50+ is nothing. UY at 100 nothing now. it is just there. Wild eh? big change for me.

If nothing else I am a better trader overall for that alone. IMO. just wanted to share as that is huge for me and a giant step into pure chartism. With fib I could take price off of the chart because it means nothing it is just a way point, a descriptor. big wow for me. like a purity of trading.

I have always been aware of Pyscho levels for PASR tp and stops etc as I have never had a laser focus tool before. I had likely "zones" so obviously, I have had to be keenly aware of pyscho levels or my trading would get killed.
Sizz
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  • #2,934
  • Jan 30, 2008 7:35am Jan 30, 2008 7:35am
Quoting sizzler
Db,

I missed the weekly thing interesting can you reference it for review? Also I assume you are meaning enter on retrace after pierce?

I wanted to counter point for discussion and to see your view. My weekly looks like the top one and by my way we really have nothing but a weekly range play. the blue fib on the spinner.

Also here is the H4 view for more clarity( can trade from this view or p and confirms the fib for me)

I guess what I am trying to counterpoint at by this is saying:

I think we have a dynamite play right now(there are fibs all over the place I am only showing that one) and I don't know what you are looking at.

I have been completing 1hrs and 15 mins in this this range all week. Do you primarily play long terms with these fibs then? if so I am interested to hear your strategy GreenbackWilliam.

Sizz
I have read and re-read this thread about 3 times. I will have to go back once more to find the post on the weekly fib and GBP/JPY. What you can do is do a search (of the thread) and type in GBPJPY it should pop up. Another note is something skunny said about candles with long wicks. That's why I went back 1 more candle. On this particular pair you should not enter on the break of the 0-100, you wait to enter at the 38, or 61.8, yes that's what I meant.

I trade the 1 hour chart. I have 2 strats. I plot on the swings with the fibs, I wait for my MA's to cross in the proper direction and RSI to confirm the latter.

Reading this thread, employing vHands every day (I re-trade my days), The fibs have taken the emotion out of trading for me.
  • #2,935
  • Jan 30, 2008 7:51am Jan 30, 2008 7:51am
[why I went back 1 more candle. On this particular pair you should not enter on the break of the 0-100, you wait to enter at the 38, or 61.8, yes that's what I meant.

I trade the 1 hour chart. I have 2 strats. I plot on the swings with the fibs, I wait for my MA's to cross in the proper direction and RSI to confirm the latter.

Reading this thread, employing vHands every day (I re-trade my days), The fibs have taken the emotion out of trading for me.[/quote]

I will look for it! . thanks. I use a few different data feeds now to make sure the wicks aren't broker induced which is what I think Skunny meant. p

If you ever decide to go smaller then 1hr you can trade the pierce or break but yes on bigger tfs no go.

I like your personal melding of Macross/strength with fibs. Also retrading your days is an excellent move thanks for sharing and nice work on the no emotion Db!!

Sizz
  • #2,936
  • Jan 30, 2008 7:59am Jan 30, 2008 7:59am
Quoting Skunny
Hey Bobb here is an example that we just experienced on GU in regards to our previous discussion. On the chart, these lines were drawn long before any news announcement. If you know where the price will go/stop it makes for an easier trading day. You can do this to, but it takes practice and patience.


How many traders do you think thought this was a random place to stop? Chaotic? This isn't the best example because of the leak last night about the Fed's having another punch they were going to throw today. Which is why I wasn't trading. (posting a bunch of crap instead)lol.

EDITED: I did not take this trade BTW.
HI ALL.... was just wondering if it means anything when a t1 -138 OR 138 IS NOT HIT????

INPUT WELCOME AND APPRECIATED.....

PS I WISH SKUNNY WOULD WEIGH IN ON THIS ONE....BUT IF NOT CAN U ALL VAHND AND TEST WITH ME PLEASE! THANKS!
  • #2,937
  • Jan 30, 2008 8:17am Jan 30, 2008 8:17am
I had to go out, so this is not in real time, I'd walked my IFib - OK Sizz, they're IFibs, LOL its shorter to type! - to the last 5m H and L. On the 5m I'm looking for a 100 - 150 pip range and I've used the narrower choice here 'cause that gives a tighter entry and stop - the wider range is in salmon.

News was coming and I was expecting chop and that was what happened from LO - London Open for the uninitiated - up till the news, which was positive for cable and so up went GJ. Up on out of the DZ and above the highs that had just held at the AL - Alert Line = 76.4 fib and where I would NOW be looking to BUY as the lower DZ level had clearly been REJECTED.

So a buy in the Green Circle at ~212.62. Again thinking of a choppy day I would have taken partial profits at +50 - the doji spike above the 212 level, taken more off at the T1 at ~213.20 and left the remainder to run for T2 - which was hit in the US news spike.

With this second set of trades in at another 50+ its a good day and with the FOMC meeting due later I'll not be looking for another trade until tomorrow's European session.
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Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #2,938
  • Jan 30, 2008 9:04am Jan 30, 2008 9:04am
Quoting 4x_Trader
based on my daily chart the gbp/jpy needs to retrace at least 50% (lies @ 216 from a hi of 228.35 (dec 27, '07) & low of 204.63 (jan 23, '08)) but I will liquidate my long pos between 213.70-214.00 because there is a double top formation which is a good idea for profit taking!
Hi dagoods it looks like my lucky day! Squaring all long positions right now I have to take a nap because its already 11 PM here in the Philippines to get ready later at 3:15 AM FOMC Interest Rate Statement! How are you doing bro? See ya later tnx!
  • #2,939
  • Jan 30, 2008 9:17am Jan 30, 2008 9:17am
Quoting DXTrade
Hi guys

here my GJ chart for today (sorry, but I LOVE this pair)
Note.... we are in a Fed and NFP week, so choppy small ranges are normal!

The red rectangles are my long/short areas.
Short there because its the sell area of the small fib and the down break of the 61.8 retrace of the bigger one.

Long because its a upper break of the 38.2 retracements of both fibs.
Another great chart/fib drawing. By George, I think he's got it!!!
  • #2,940
  • Jan 30, 2008 12:18pm Jan 30, 2008 12:18pm
Fib placement I am currently using. I was a little late to the party BOT GJ211.60 0816GMT 29th at the ellipse. Bot after PA confirmation of the H (hourly) fib at both the 61.8 and the 38.2. I have labeled another smaller fib S (or swing) that is confirming the direction and will provide T1=214.95. Depending on PA then will decide on (H) T1. Picture is small so you can see unusual H Fib placement. Use the control key and the scroll wheel on your mouse to increase picture size and zoom in.

P.S. - Will be watching the PA at D (Daily)38.2 carefully
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