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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #10,941
  • Jan 30, 2008 6:17am Jan 30, 2008 6:17am
Quoting brettboz
I had planned to long E/U on a break of the trend line down on the 1H this morning. This would of course be in anticipation of a green MACD on the 4H and therefore TC off the 8.

This happened but I didnt long because the 1H candle looked like a small hanging man and the break above was only just over making me think a redrawn trend line may even keep it inside.

Of course it has rocketed up after the no-trade. Now the question is whether to get in on retrace or on 4H TC signal which will close in another 1 and a half hours.
hi i think the only concern is TL#1 if it breaks i'll enter with the target which u see in the pic
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  • #10,942
  • Jan 30, 2008 6:21am Jan 30, 2008 6:21am
Hi,
Today is gonna be a long day.Very important news.Not bad to watch this video while waitting for the news.We have a anniversary too,so a little bit laugh wouldn't hurt,I guess.

Inserted Video


Good luck
Mike
Failure, is a wonderful teacher!
  • #10,943
  • Jan 30, 2008 6:40am Jan 30, 2008 6:40am
This is my trade for today. Entered long Eurjpy at 157.73 for a 50pips TP when it hits 8-21ema. Again no SL placed. Should have placed it slightly under the 21ema.
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  • #10,944
  • Jan 30, 2008 6:59am Jan 30, 2008 6:59am
Quoting Beman
I've been watching different timeframes just to try out this sistem rules, it works fine on almost all of them (from 15 min up), but it works for sure best on the 4h, there it really gives 80-90% positive trade if you use correctly your TP, BE an SL, so i think we couldn't ask more from a sistem... using smaller frames than 1h becomes risky and that's not really smart, why someone would get a loss when you have the opportuity to catch many wins?
Tried to backtest 55EMa it works really good! i think we should let run at least 25-30% of our trade and place trailing stop about 30-40 pips above/below the 55, (obviously after have placed BE) i know they are a lot but you wouldn't get stopped out too easily in this way, still have to backtest many monthes, so this comes from what i saw in those monthes.
Beman:

I think several people, including Phillip (the Jedi Master himself) did look at this on smaller timeframes and they all came to the same conclusion as you did, it works best on the 4hr.

Might be a wild ride today....
  • #10,945
  • Jan 30, 2008 7:37am Jan 30, 2008 7:37am
Quoting Palmer


Might be a wild ride today....
And The Roller coaster begins. I think i will enjoy from the side lines ----
TRADE WHAT YOU SEE... FOCUS ON SUCCESS
  • #10,946
  • Jan 30, 2008 7:38am Jan 30, 2008 7:38am
Quoting bshadroo
hi i think the only concern is TL#1 if it breaks i'll enter with the target which u see in the pic
once one of the people here told:dont trade if there is a concern or something like that .i think nadia
i'm glad to remember that post and didnt trade the tc ,there was a lot of temptations inside me to tke the trade befor break. if i did, my stoploss would hitted now
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  • #10,947
  • Jan 30, 2008 7:39am Jan 30, 2008 7:39am
Quoting BIL2205
And The Roller coaster begins. I think i will enjoy from the side lines ----
Yes good idea, both possible longs on E/U and G/U would have probably been stopped out on that run down below the 8.
  • #10,948
  • Jan 30, 2008 7:46am Jan 30, 2008 7:46am
Take a look at this chart. Clearly something has to break soon. We are in up channel and we have an unbroken support trend line. But we have divergence with the MACD. Also the current candle as it stands looks like a hanging man although I have to admit the up trend leading to it is hardly massive. It still early days for this candle and with all the data I think the best thing is to sit aside, but it will be interesting to see how this situation unfolds.
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  • #10,949
  • Jan 30, 2008 8:13am Jan 30, 2008 8:13am
TC off the 8ema as well as off bottom support line. First pullback
after recent move through 89sma. Market is a bit up and down at the
moment(on other pairs) so it might be a bumpy ride.





Entry 1.4809

Stoploss 1.4770

TP 1.4872 (Don't ask me why there. I just draw my hor line there and
decided to leave it there)
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  • #10,950
  • Jan 30, 2008 8:36am Jan 30, 2008 8:36am
Going to wait on Fed. Today is risk I dont need or want to take.
Keep taking CT trades, I need more money
  • #10,951
  • Jan 30, 2008 8:42am Jan 30, 2008 8:42am
JPY may be breaking out!

Anticipating 4H close above 89 & fast market speed ...........
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  • #10,952
  • Jan 30, 2008 9:00am Jan 30, 2008 9:00am
Dear Phillip,
why did you trade so close to the Fed decision?
  • #10,953
  • Jan 30, 2008 9:04am Jan 30, 2008 9:04am
Quoting PhilsOpinion
TC off the 8ema as well as off bottom support line. First pullback
after recent move through 89sma. Market is a bit up and down at the
moment(on other pairs) so it might be a bumpy ride.





Entry 1.4809

Stoploss 1.4770

TP 1.4872 (Don't ask me why there. I just draw my hor line there and
decided to leave it there)
ADP Nonfarm Employment Change
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/m...etail_star.gif 130K
40K37K

this news cause that bad down move.
and a question please: did u see the triangle and ignor that ? i mean why u didnt wait for a break up? OR the h4 signal is more reliable than that triangle?
on the other words: which one is more important? the triangle or the macd signal?
it seems to me u ignore the up resistance when u see the macd signal. am i right?
if the news were bad in would break and went up ,but i would ask this Q again because its one of my important questions
thx for helping by the asnwer in advance
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  • #10,954
  • Jan 30, 2008 9:09am Jan 30, 2008 9:09am
Quoting maxster
JPY may be breaking out!

Anticipating 4H close above 89 & fast market speed ...........
Becareful guys.. Interest rate is coming soon
  • #10,955
  • Jan 30, 2008 9:12am Jan 30, 2008 9:12am
Quoting Ryanmcd
I am glad you like my posts Sometimes I get a little mad because I have been there and lost everyway one can. I bet I have close to 500 losses over the years. I have used the paid services, have the 100+ stock books, had a loser then I lost 90% of the time so whenever I was thinking to take a trade long I would get short. Still lost. I would take a trade and if stopped I would go the other way lost that way too. The key is when you lose to make sure you traded correctly. No matter how good the chart looks even if it's perfect you can and will still lose on some trades it's going to happen. The key for me was once I did not care if I had a winner or loser and when I was more excited when I managed a losing trade I knew I had made it as a pro-trader. Do I still get excited when I make a long run of trades? You bet but as time goes on it's really just a job but at this job you are 100% in control of your actions, there is no "Bad" market, there is no "Well the news got me" it is YOU and only you. People like to pass blame on others and have trouble of dealing with reactions for there actions. You will do fine, just put in the effort and learn from others. I look at stock books as too see what others had problems with and how they solved them, not how to make 10million a year. Also feel free to post any questions you have and I will do my best to help.
Hi Ryan
So you get a little mad when people post a losing trade when you can see what they did wrong, don't we all......how do you think you learned? People learn thru the mistakes they make. Would you have learned without making all those mistakes? I doubt it....so just step back relax, no need to get all worked, just keep giving the good advice you usually do, but without the sarcasm or the emotion.... less emotion makes everybody a little better trader right?
  • #10,956
  • Jan 30, 2008 9:12am Jan 30, 2008 9:12am
Quoting hijackxx
Becareful guys.. Interest rate is coming soon
agree and i wish eurusd stay in up resistane on that time to put a buystop order .
  • #10,957
  • Jan 30, 2008 9:20am Jan 30, 2008 9:20am
At present it would seem E/U is stuck underneath the upper bar of the price channel and above the 8. Either of them would have to break to really be a good trade op.

And G/U is currently breaking through the 8 but when it closes in less than an hour it looks likely the 21 will be just ahead of it, so again no real trade there. Of course the 21 could give a TC back to the top of the price channel but this will be after my trading session finishes so I wont take that either.
  • #10,958
  • Jan 30, 2008 9:20am Jan 30, 2008 9:20am
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File Type: zip Daily Wrapup 30 Jan2008.zip   825 KB | 885 downloads
  • #10,959
  • Jan 30, 2008 9:24am Jan 30, 2008 9:24am
Thanks Palmer for confirming what i've seen(i was sure that pro-trader already didi it), i have question: i know nothing about fundamental analises and seems it would be very usefull to know something... how can i learn something about it? (books, other threads ecc..) maybe there's a topic on this thread explaining it (i still didn't read all the 700 pages!).
Thanks in advance
  • #10,960
  • Jan 30, 2008 9:24am Jan 30, 2008 9:24am
Quoting kc8flq
Hi Ryan
So you get a little mad when people post a losing trade when you can see what they did wrong, don't we all......how do you think you learned? People learn thru the mistakes they make. Would you have learned without making all those mistakes? I doubt it....so just step back relax, no need to get all worked, just keep giving the good advice you usually do, but without the sarcasm or the emotion.... less emotion makes everybody a little better trader right?
I didn't take Ryan's reply as negative - those that haven't go through what he means will not understand. He is trying to help people from blowing their account by citing an example - and discipline by following your plan is the key. But the ones that have gone through or going through it know it is not that simple.
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