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  • #121
  • Edited 7:19am Jan 8, 2008 6:03am | Edited 7:19am
Quoting tdion
...A victory in Iraq, combined with a new president, should change the world's sentiment toward the US, and consequently help the dollar. ...
I always like US. But dollar is in desperate condition.

I always like US, but I do not like a weak dollar at all.
I guess the main reason of the weakness is the deficit of payments balance.
  • #122
  • Jan 8, 2008 6:15am Jan 8, 2008 6:15am
Good point. Plus the challenges China and Mexico have placed on US jobs of the old economy.

I hope the war ends soon, so that money used to fund the war will go into strengthening the US infrastructure problems including illegal immigration and unemployment, thus strengthening America's weakened state.

Quoting Prof
I guess the main reason of the weakness is the deficit of payments balance.
  • #123
  • Jan 26, 2008 12:43pm Jan 26, 2008 12:43pm
Quoting gene22
.....

As far as the dow, your are right and I think this is because we were, on the dow at least, in the end of a grand super bull cycle. I think 2008 and beyond we are entering a whole different ball game. It's a shot in the dark, but that's what I see on my charts so I'll trade it agressively untill it proves to me wrong. Wouldn't it be a surprise to see the dow around 2000-2500 level within the next 4 years?! Now that would be a nice payday.

The grand super bull cycle has been over for 7-8 years in terms of real money(gold). This countertrend rally has been spurred by extreme optimism whereas the growth of credit and leverage has distorted its normally measurable nominal basis.

Will look for strong nominal countertrend rallies to position for a much larger decline, and with a USD index bottom possibly in place, this may happen sooner than later...

As for gold, I have never in my short life seen so many people buying or contemplating buying safes and bullion bars that they believe will lead them to major riches.....Not to mention the neo Euro junkies - 2nd generation Americans moving all of their dollars out of the country.....and back to Europe.....to each his own but I just cant help but to notice the herd mentality growing stronger and stronger.
Man who scratches ass should not bite fingernails
  • #124
  • Jan 29, 2008 5:52pm Jan 29, 2008 5:52pm
In the meantime, I have shorts set for a move to 4555 or so.

http://www.morrisfunds.com/storage/f...s/My2cents.PNG
  • #125
  • Jan 29, 2008 6:10pm Jan 29, 2008 6:10pm
Weekly View - Currently at weekly range top. Setting shorts at current levels into 4801 or better.

http://www.morrisfunds.com/storage/f...01-29-2008.PNG
  • #126
  • Jan 29, 2008 9:48pm Jan 29, 2008 9:48pm
Quoting Leugimp
..Not to mention the neo Euro junkies - 2nd generation Americans moving all of their dollars out of the country.....and back to Europe.....to each his own but I just cant help but to notice the herd mentality growing stronger and stronger.
Aren't bulls a herd animal? (just sayin')
long for the moment...pretty sure there is some more running up the hill here.
  • #127
  • Jan 30, 2008 3:34am Jan 30, 2008 3:34am
Am I allowed to butt in here
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd.gif Size: 18 KB
  • #128
  • Jan 30, 2008 4:35am Jan 30, 2008 4:35am
Quoting forexlion
Am I allowed to butt in here
I really wish I knew what you were trying to say with your posts. You throw up charts with generated pivots and upside down fibs, yet you've yet to go into detail as to
1. what you are showing
2. what you are trying to say

Where's the use for an observer to just see a chart with indicators on it?
What can be learned from that?

This is what one COULD be putting into a chart(see the difference?) that actually illustrates several good examples of endlessly repeating price mechanics(squeezouts, s/r flips and TL breaks as directional change indication, bars for price action setups):
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd_080130_how_to_chart.gif Size: 20 KB
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #129
  • Jan 30, 2008 5:42am Jan 30, 2008 5:42am
As mentioned on last chart: fade from spike.
Comes back to retest prior highs -> flip to support line.


This move should either go to the top of the highs connecting trendline(daily chart) or falter quite soon(already at interim small s/r).

Either way, I suspect the red news will help jostle things around quite a bit.

I'm treading softly and basically not in risk here.

I'm also not generally trading off the 1h or advocating it; the daily chart had the bullish setup => the BUOB that the lower TL connects to(like every pair had; it was simply a mirror image of the DJI sadly enough), everything else was just looking for places to place small addons.
Attached Images
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #130
  • Jan 30, 2008 5:43am Jan 30, 2008 5:43am
Good morning everyone. Here's what I am seeing this morning.

4801 is a key level. See above longer term charts. I would look to set short here for a move down to 4697 -4685 area. Risk should be fairly tight on a move up as I suspect we will move up fairly rapidly if the supply at this level is overcome.

If we move up then target 4863 area or better to 4685. I would exit or pare back heavily at this level and let value develop before moving on.



http://www.morrisfunds.com/storage/f...d60%201-30.PNG
  • #131
  • Jan 30, 2008 5:49am Jan 30, 2008 5:49am
The ADV on my chart is something I made up. It stands for "Adaptive Dynamic Value" I am no rocket scientist, it is just a visual aid for me. (old eyes!). ADV represents sort of "fair value" during this hour of trading. It is adjusting or adapting each hour as value builds in the market.
  • #132
  • Jan 30, 2008 6:00am Jan 30, 2008 6:00am
What I intended to say in this post


was that using weekly pivots and 4 hour charts on eurusd, it is obvious that R1 being already taken out it is R2 which is the next possible target.

The fibs i used on other charts are not inverted, but drawn correctly.

The formulae for fib calculation is

dist=MathRound((B-A)*MathPow(10,4))/10000;
fr[0] = MathRound((B-0.0*dist)*MathPow(10,4))/10000;

where fr[0] marks the 0% line
A is the previous high
B is the previous low

The whole formulae is taken from the actionforex fib calculator.
  • #133
  • Jan 30, 2008 2:39pm Jan 30, 2008 2:39pm
Quoting SeekingLight
As mentioned on last chart: fade from spike.
Comes back to retest prior highs -> flip to support line.

This move should either go to the top of the highs connecting trendline(daily chart) or falter quite soon(already at interim small s/r).

Either way, I suspect the red news will help jostle things around quite a bit.

I'm treading softly and basically not in risk here.
I got mine, hope everyone else did alright, too.

Update to show the prior marked in level touched now - no curve fitting here folks. Just a bit of sense and a pick of scenarios. We also held the 4h temporary TL really well, which funnily enough coincided with the descending TL we broke out of.
Attached Images
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #134
  • Jan 30, 2008 4:11pm Jan 30, 2008 4:11pm
Ouch! I was way off on this one.
  • #135
  • Jan 31, 2008 2:45pm Jan 31, 2008 2:45pm
Quoting digitil
Aren't bulls a herd animal? (just sayin')
long for the moment...pretty sure there is some more running up the hill here.

Yes they are - yet what Im speaking of is mounting context on a larger scale, not trade setups and not position management -
Man who scratches ass should not bite fingernails
  • #136
  • Feb 1, 2008 1:53am Feb 1, 2008 1:53am
Is anyone here seeing yesterday's EUR CPI y/y @ 3.2% as VERY bullish, given Trichet's unrelenting anti-inflation bias? The market seems to be ignoring the number for now, as everyone focuses on the mess in the US, but this could be what eventually pushes us above 1.5000. Thoughts?
  • #137
  • Feb 1, 2008 5:28am Feb 1, 2008 5:28am
Wake up everyone. Where is everybody??? Sleeping in this morning.
  • #138
  • Feb 1, 2008 5:53am Feb 1, 2008 5:53am
Quoting fierceman
Is anyone here seeing yesterday's EUR CPI y/y @ 3.2% as VERY bullish, given Trichet's unrelenting anti-inflation bias? The market seems to be ignoring the number for now, as everyone focuses on the mess in the US, but this could be what eventually pushes us above 1.5000. Thoughts?
There was an article regarding this in Oanda's FxNews. It seems as if at this moment traders are now starting to be more concerned about growth potential than inflation problems. The Euro is stuck in a hard place where they have to measure growth/vs. inflation. This is why there was not much reaction to the news.

GF
  • #139
  • Feb 1, 2008 5:59am Feb 1, 2008 5:59am
Quoting SeekingLight
I really wish I knew what you were trying to say with your posts. You throw up charts with generated pivots and upside down fibs, yet you've yet to go into detail as to
1. what you are showing
2. what you are trying to say

Where's the use for an observer to just see a chart with indicators on it?
What can be learned from that?

This is what one COULD be putting into a chart(see the difference?) that actually illustrates several good examples of endlessly repeating price mechanics(squeezouts, s/r flips and TL breaks as directional change indication, bars for price action setups):

Light,

Your charts are beautiful simply because they are simple. I've been trying to get a thread going in the Trading Systems forum using my method which is essentially the same as yours. Yet, getting people to believe in this.... whew?! they really don't think something so easy can be so right. I started following this way a while back last year and have never been so much happier with such a successful method.

Good luck to you and everyone,
Marci (aka GirlFlyer)
  • #140
  • Feb 1, 2008 6:59am Feb 1, 2008 6:59am
Quoting GirlFlyer
There was an article regarding this in Oanda's FxNews. It seems as if at this moment traders are now starting to be more concerned about growth potential than inflation problems. The Euro is stuck in a hard place where they have to measure growth/vs. inflation. This is why there was not much reaction to the news.

GF
Not according to anyone at the ECB. Their hawkish rhetoric has not changed, nor have rates, and it seems that the market's hopes may just be wishful thinking. With a reading of 3.2%, which is WAAAAY above target, and the German economy chugging along as if nothing has changed since 2007, I frankly find it difficult to see where the market is getting this idea of lower rates in Europe.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=adnj7OpjXz9g
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