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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #10,881
  • Jan 29, 2008 7:53am Jan 29, 2008 7:53am
Quoting PhilsOpinion
I expect a strong move
Never ever expect anything from a market! markets do what they please regardless of what you expect! trade what u see not what u expect.

expecting things from a market is a dangerous way to play guys, i have seen a couple of accounts blown up (real time) on expectation! the holders were chat mates and that sure killed the mood, hence no more chat.

peace
  • #10,882
  • Jan 29, 2008 7:57am Jan 29, 2008 7:57am
Originally Posted by bshadroo http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
how is long?price breaks the TL and close above 21

Quoting Ryanmcd
To me the 8/21 MA's are not in motion, they are a mess. Best trades I see are the one Phillip posted and the one I got in. Look at my charts I posted last night, it's really that easy if you dont have to take 100 trades a day. Sit back relax step away from the computer
100 trades?!!look what happend, also eurusd trade still holding the resistance
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  • #10,883
  • Jan 29, 2008 7:57am Jan 29, 2008 7:57am
Quoting Ryanmcd
Out of EURCHF +49.
Ryan,

Wondering what was the reasoning for exiting this trade? Price went thur 89 and you are expecting it to come back and test it?
  • #10,884
  • Jan 29, 2008 8:09am Jan 29, 2008 8:09am
Quoting maxster
Ryan,

Wondering what was the reasoning for exiting this trade? Price went thur 89 and you are expecting it to come back and test it?

My goal is about 50 point per trade per contract. I did not scale out of this just closed all lots for +49. Yes it may go up and I will get back in it. Right now it hit my upper BB so it will prob pullback here.
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Keep taking CT trades, I need more money
  • #10,885
  • Jan 29, 2008 9:24am Jan 29, 2008 9:24am
Quoting BIL2205
EUro gave a TC as well, I took it on with a very small position and one lot only, my only concern is that the Speed of price is on the 21EMA and this TC is OFF of 8 ema. So price may move down to 21 before taking its direction. Only time will tell,
Stop loss hit on EURO. lesson learned, when there is a concern that means set up is not perfect. I knew when getting in to the trade that there was a CONCERN, speed was on 21 EMA, so my stop loss should have been below the 21. But that would have been too much. so i should not have been in the trade in the first place.
but i took a very small position, so money management help me bear a minor loss. Pleae learn from my mistake and try not to make it yourself.
TRADE WHAT YOU SEE... FOCUS ON SUCCESS
  • #10,886
  • Jan 29, 2008 9:32am Jan 29, 2008 9:32am
Quoting ira
I took E/U short, reasons: ITL daily, divergence, TL, H&S on MACD, tails up indicating selling pressure. Entry 1.4772, second lot pending order at 1.4782 (was triggered already). SL 1.4805 TP1 1.4747 8MA, second TP 21 MA.

Was looking to short U/J too, but I don't like that price makes HL and it didn't close under support, so I stay out.
Finally my first TP on EUR was hit +30, the other was closed at b/e just now.
  • #10,887
  • Jan 29, 2008 9:33am Jan 29, 2008 9:33am
Quoting BIL2205
Stop loss hit on EURO. lesson learned, when there is a concern that means set up is not perfect. I knew when getting in to the trade that there was a CONCERN, speed was on 21 EMA, so my stop loss should have been below the 21. But that would have been too much. so i should not have been in the trade in the first place.
but i took a very small position, so money management help me bear a minor loss. Pleae learn from my mistake and try not to make it yourself.
I ended the day with -62 pips.. . The market took back yesterday's exact profit . Something's fishy going around the market..
  • #10,888
  • Jan 29, 2008 9:36am Jan 29, 2008 9:36am
Originally Posted by bshadroo http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
what u guys think about short eurusd? H&S pattern in macd and divergence i can see there

Quoting Ryanmcd
Look at the flow of the market, GBPUSD = Long, EURCHF = Long "I got long and posted this last night" EURUSD = Long. Look at the chart I posted last night and if you just take those trades you will make over 500 a month. I am up about 110 for 2 days now on 2 trade. Don't hunt for the high risk stuff and over-trade.

close +20pips. it missed my take profit with 3pips and i closed it manually
dear ryan ,i'm not trying to say i am right ,u r wrong no no i was wrong many times... just.. wanna say u may show more respect to your friends when u answering them
good luck my friend
  • #10,889
  • Jan 29, 2008 9:42am Jan 29, 2008 9:42am
Quoting ira
Finally my first TP on EUR was hit +30, the other was closed at b/e just now.
WELL DONE !!!
TRADE WHAT YOU SEE... FOCUS ON SUCCESS
  • #10,890
  • Jan 29, 2008 9:47am Jan 29, 2008 9:47am
Quoting hijackxx
I ended the day with -62 pips.. . The market took back yesterday's exact profit . Something's fishy going around the market..
hi
dont be sad my friend ,thats part of the game and..
please post your charts (if u want).i think there are more things to learn in not succesfull trades than right ones.
thx
  • #10,891
  • Jan 29, 2008 9:47am Jan 29, 2008 9:47am
Quoting hijackxx
I ended the day with -62 pips.. . The market took back yesterday's exact profit . Something's fishy going around the market..
This week is important as far as economic news for $USD so there will Volatility. i am not too much of an EEKONOMIST ( hehehe, courtesy palmer). my self. but there is some major news lined up. Again it is not as much as the news but how traders react to it.
My euro trade today was half baked. did not have all the ingredients.
Which pair did you trade.
TRADE WHAT YOU SEE... FOCUS ON SUCCESS
  • #10,892
  • Edited 10:22am Jan 29, 2008 10:11am | Edited 10:22am

Gbp break of trendline with pullback to breakout level with a TC away from 8ema off the 200sma. They don’t come better than this. I expect a strong move.


I was rightly pointed out not to expect anything from the market. The market is going to do its own thing. If I did not trade the way I do with partial profit taking and rest at BE I would have been burned. That style of trading made me 15pips on this trade. Dont expect to make a lot of pips, take what it offers you.


Entry 1.9874
Stoploss 1.9832
Tp 1.9994
1st TP after 30pips and set remainder to BE with 30 trailing stop.


Edit 1
50% closed for 30 pips. Will set remainder at BE and leave it there to see if price is going to break the 1.9800 level and continue upwards.
Edit 2
Remainder taken out at BE. This came as a surprise unless there is a turnaround coming or a very strong continuation. Will watch it closely.
Average profit 30/2=15pips

  • #10,893
  • Jan 29, 2008 10:15am Jan 29, 2008 10:15am
Hi All,

I traded the E/G again today, thought that the close of the 08:00 GMT candle had the makings of a short to the 23.6% fib/0.7400 level. I got an entry off the 1 hr with SL at 1:1 just above the 21ma, but nothing seemed to happen. There seemed a lot of hesitation about going down any further so I gave up on the trade and took 1 pip profit! Still, it only took 1 pip to grow the tree on my avatar and look how big it grew in the end!!

I may take a short again on the E/G if all still valid for entry. We'll see.

I also looked at the G/U but didn't like the MACD bearish divergence on the highs. I haven't got enough experience of divergences yet to ignore it when it is so big, even though all other indications are pointing for cable to go north. I would rather wait to see which way price goes through the week and take my decisions then. Playing it safe & slow again!

Good pipping to Everyone,
Rebecca,x.
Attached Image
May all your pips grow into great big fruitful trees
  • #10,894
  • Jan 29, 2008 10:18am Jan 29, 2008 10:18am
Quoting BIL2205
Stop loss hit on EURO. lesson learned, when there is a concern that means set up is not perfect. I knew when getting in to the trade that there was a CONCERN, speed was on 21 EMA, so my stop loss should have been below the 21. But that would have been too much. so i should not have been in the trade in the first place.
but i took a very small position, so money management help me bear a minor loss. Pleae learn from my mistake and try not to make it yourself.
Bill, I took this trade too and also thought at the time that i might be making a mistake. However I thought it was a mistake for a different reason than you. I saw the 1H trend line on the top side acting as good resistance having been tested several times over the last few hours and holding well. So I really should have waited for a break and hold above this to go long.

Of course my trade went the same way yours did....
  • #10,895
  • Jan 29, 2008 10:23am Jan 29, 2008 10:23am
Quoting Phillip Nel

Gbp break of trendline with pullback to breakout level with a TC away from 8ema off the 200sma. They don’t come better than this. I expect a strong move.

I was rightly pointed out not to expect anything from the market. The market is going to do its own thing. If I did not trade the way I do with partial profit taking and rest at BE I would have been burned. That style of trading made me 15pips

Entry 1.9874
Stoploss 1.9832
Tp 1.9994
1st TP after 30pips and set remainder to BE with 30 trailing stop.


Edit 1
50% closed for 30 pips. Will set remainder at BE and leave it there to see if price is going to break the 1.9800 level and continue upwards.
Edit 2
Remainder taken out at BE. This came as a surprise unless there is a turnaround coming or a very strong continuation. Will watch it closely.
Average profit 30/2=15pips

Hi Phillip, I was also monitoring this trade but didnt take it because of the proximity of 9900 and although it had not been tested I thought it looked as if it might hold.

Nice 15 pips to you anyway.
  • #10,896
  • Jan 29, 2008 10:37am Jan 29, 2008 10:37am
Quoting brettboz
Hi Phillip, I was also monitoring this trade but didnt take it because of the proximity of 9900 and although it had not been tested I thought it looked as if it might hold.

Nice 15 pips to you anyway.

I took purely on MACD TC as well as the 200sma support which is very strong most of the time. It can still go up from here as it tested the 21ema again. Will give it chance to show its emotion.
  • #10,897
  • Jan 29, 2008 10:38am Jan 29, 2008 10:38am
Quoting brettboz
Hi Phillip, I was also monitoring this trade but didnt take it because of the proximity of 9900 and although it had not been tested I thought it looked as if it might hold.

Nice 15 pips to you anyway.
Also 1.9900 happens to be resistance from 8 ema on weekly chart, which has held as resistance for 6 weeks now. So I would like to see that broken before I commit to a long on the G/U, as well as resolution of bearish divergence.

I think I'm maybe looking for reasons not to trade, a sort of in-built pain protection mechanism. I'm reading Mark Douglas 'Trading in the Zone' again, it's a great book and I'm seeing ghosts of myself on just about every page!! I'm actively working through my demons though and appreciate all the help and support here. I love Ryan for his no-nonsense, absolutely top notch advice! I also love, admire & respect all of you who put so much time and thought into this thread. You know who you are!
May all your pips grow into great big fruitful trees
  • #10,898
  • Jan 29, 2008 10:41am Jan 29, 2008 10:41am
Closed my 2nd lot couple of pips loss. had a chance to BE but kept thinking. Need to be more decisive in my actions. Sill not bad . 1st lot made it worth taking.
TRADE WHAT YOU SEE... FOCUS ON SUCCESS
  • #10,899
  • Jan 29, 2008 10:51am Jan 29, 2008 10:51am
Phillip's trade this AM was great, if I was up I was going to take it as well. The forex is very easy to trade compared to other markets such as the @ES I used to trade. If you lose a few who cares, if you follow the rules and DO NOT change them while in a trade you did fine. I have had run's where I had 6-8 losers in a row but my longest winning streak is 47 in a row so it happens. Keep confidence in your trades, follow your rules and let the trades come to you, and last but not least don’t stare at these charts all day because your mind will find a trade.
Keep taking CT trades, I need more money
  • #10,900
  • Jan 29, 2008 10:54am Jan 29, 2008 10:54am
I took a GU short trade because I saw the candle bars was held by 200MA and I thought that this was actually a good TC trade. The price actually did went +30, but I had a class during that time. The TS I placed was @35 pips, so it didn't move my SL. So I decided to wait for price to go back bearish. Then pips went minus (around 20-25ish), at one point it goes back to -1, but I was thinking that it would go further bearish, hence I did not close it.
Then I went to sleep because i was so tired I couldn't watch further more.
I should've close the trade because price action didn't even gave me good confirmation to take a short, it bounced off the prev's support candle and this is easy if you explain it after the trade.
Yeah, the way Phillip trading should've applied on my trade where I was supposed to close a half and let the other one goes BE.
A lesson learnt!

Hijackxx
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