I was checking the results of January 2008 contest and I thought that in fact, a contest is a money making machine, mainly when the broker trades against you.
Check the snap shot below:
Well, notice how starting the 7th, all traders are under 100% gain.
Starting 10th, they are under 60% gain.
Assuming that the broker is trading gainst you.
Let's try to evaluate the 'cost' of the contest:
Taking the general concept that more than 90% of traders lose money, and since there's 237 participant, 90% would means that more than 213 of these traders are losing money.
We can safely enough assume that we have 200 traders that are losing money, and probably 50 of them have blown their account (We can see in the attachment that the last ten have lost more than 99% of their account), so only 37 (or less) are winning money.
The prizes are:
1st $3,000.00
2nd $1,500.00
3rd $750.00
4th $500.00
5th $250.00
Total: 6,000$
Per the rule, you need only 500$ in your live account to enter the contest. I think that the traders that will be in the up with more than 200% return in less than a month will not be risking more than this amount. And let's assume that the traders that have lost all their balance have only risked 500$.
So the broker will have to pay (as they are trading the opposite side) at the end of the contest:
For the first 10 participants:
4.10*500+2.70*500+1.90*500+1.30*500+1.30*500 +1.20*500+0.80*500+0.70*500+0.60*500+0.60*500 = ~20,000 $
For the 27 other assumed positive gain if considered at 30% gain:
27*0.3*500 = ~4,000 $
So the total 'cost' of the game is 6,000 + 20,000+ 4,000 = 30,000 $
Let's try to evaluate the 'income' of the contest:
200 traders are losing money.
We see in the broker statement that the last have lost more than 99% of their account. We can safely assume that 50 trader has lost more than 90%, and let's suppose that 150 has lost a mean of 50%, we would have an 'income' of:
50*500+150*250 = 25,000 + 37500 = 62,500 $
So the return from the contest would be something like:
62,500 - 30,000 = 32,500$ + spread times all the trade done.
Of course this is just a simulation, but I have the impression that the broker is having much more from this money making machine 'contest', as I tried to put all my calculation on the safe side.
Well, as I noticed from the 6 months back published statements, the number of contestant is increasing every month... Just extrapolate in few months with 500, 1000 participants and maybe more...
Check the snap shot below:
Well, notice how starting the 7th, all traders are under 100% gain.
Starting 10th, they are under 60% gain.
Assuming that the broker is trading gainst you.
Let's try to evaluate the 'cost' of the contest:
Taking the general concept that more than 90% of traders lose money, and since there's 237 participant, 90% would means that more than 213 of these traders are losing money.
We can safely enough assume that we have 200 traders that are losing money, and probably 50 of them have blown their account (We can see in the attachment that the last ten have lost more than 99% of their account), so only 37 (or less) are winning money.
The prizes are:
1st $3,000.00
2nd $1,500.00
3rd $750.00
4th $500.00
5th $250.00
Total: 6,000$
Per the rule, you need only 500$ in your live account to enter the contest. I think that the traders that will be in the up with more than 200% return in less than a month will not be risking more than this amount. And let's assume that the traders that have lost all their balance have only risked 500$.
So the broker will have to pay (as they are trading the opposite side) at the end of the contest:
For the first 10 participants:
4.10*500+2.70*500+1.90*500+1.30*500+1.30*500 +1.20*500+0.80*500+0.70*500+0.60*500+0.60*500 = ~20,000 $
For the 27 other assumed positive gain if considered at 30% gain:
27*0.3*500 = ~4,000 $
So the total 'cost' of the game is 6,000 + 20,000+ 4,000 = 30,000 $
Let's try to evaluate the 'income' of the contest:
200 traders are losing money.
We see in the broker statement that the last have lost more than 99% of their account. We can safely assume that 50 trader has lost more than 90%, and let's suppose that 150 has lost a mean of 50%, we would have an 'income' of:
50*500+150*250 = 25,000 + 37500 = 62,500 $
So the return from the contest would be something like:
62,500 - 30,000 = 32,500$ + spread times all the trade done.
Of course this is just a simulation, but I have the impression that the broker is having much more from this money making machine 'contest', as I tried to put all my calculation on the safe side.
Well, as I noticed from the 6 months back published statements, the number of contestant is increasing every month... Just extrapolate in few months with 500, 1000 participants and maybe more...
