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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #10,821
  • Edited 10:51am Jan 28, 2008 10:36am | Edited 10:51am
Quoting bshadroo
i putted an order at 1.6185 after h4 close for a possible retrace(because of large signal candle),it comes near it but didnt hitt my order
well .. my order is now hitted at 1.6085
hijackxx: thx for reply but i thought 85 is a strong level and it could comeback and see it again
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eur.gif Size: 33 KB
  • #10,822
  • Jan 28, 2008 10:51am Jan 28, 2008 10:51am
Quoting bshadroo
well .. my order is now hitted at 1.6085
Good
  • #10,823
  • Jan 28, 2008 10:51am Jan 28, 2008 10:51am
Here's mine then:

Decided to ride on UJ @106.67
Reasons:
1.Reversal signal on price action, (Price was also stopped by fibo sequence @ 61.8%)
2.Macd gave me blue colour indicating bull signal,
3.Found bull support and placed SL few pips below it.

Edit: My TP is a lil bit under the 89MA.

Here's the chart:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: UJ buy position.jpg Size: 245 KB
  • #10,824
  • Jan 28, 2008 11:56am Jan 28, 2008 11:56am
For those with difficulty understanding spoken English. See page 718, post 10760 for the mp3 and the accompanying chart.
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File Type: doc PhillipNel- Profit Taking- from page 718 post 10760.doc   6 KB | 665 downloads
  • #10,825
  • Jan 28, 2008 12:44pm Jan 28, 2008 12:44pm
Quoting bshadroo
i have a question and please answer .its very important for me.
i see u take 19.5 profit in gbpusd trade but if your stop loss was hitted you were loose 100(50*2).
what kind of money management is this?your risk: reward is not ok!!!
befor u take the position , everything is ok ,but when u close ur trade befor ur takeprofit(earlier than your plan) then its not a good r:r rate.
this time worked , but what happend if the other trade goes against u form the begining? then ur -100sl will hitted!!
thx for answering in advance

Lets say there is 10 setups coming in a row looking exactly like the one today with resistance against the 200sma on 4 candles and the 5th one making a stophunt tail like that and you take all ten you will be right at least 7-8 out of 10 times and it is going to move at least 20-30 pips in your favour as a start giving you a chance to manage your risk to BE at worst. The fact that I took partial profit and set the rest at BE at worst I will make money 7-8 out of 10 times and some of them will run more than 50pips average especially on the GbpUsd.

If I was looking for TP of 100 pips and let it do or die I would have been burned today. In fact the turnaround 04:00-08:00 candle was a doji taking the orders out on the otherside and therefore purely on emotion at that point I could have went long based on that as they took out both sides.

The fact that a high probability trade is moving 20-30pips 7-8 out of 10 times it gives me the oppertunity to get to BE with some profit in the bag. If it carries on beyond that to 50 or 100 pips for 2 of those 8 trades it enlarges my profit. If I can get 3 of those trades per month that runs it helps me in my monthly target.

If the motion turns against me after a stophunt(if it really was one??) like today on GbpUsd I still have the option to scale out on my stoploss(as I expect the price to go in my favour and it does NOT) by closing 50% after 20-30pips and the rest as planned reducing the total loss. There is nou use sitting there and watch your stop being taken out if you know the move has changed. In this case the hunt was upwards and then a turnaround down. I was pretty sure that it is going to go south. I have watch this many times so I knew it. 20-30 pips was for sure.

Go through your losses up to now and tell me how many of those losses have run 20-30 pips in your favour and has then turned around to take your stop for 20-30 loss. If you could minimise those to BE your total gain will look much better.

If one is purely taking the odds on that 6 out of 10 trades is winners with a 2:1 win/loss ratio and leaves it till one side is winning my way is not going to work if I take partial profits. I have learned over the years what type of setups together with candle emotion produces positive results. Therefore I dont take trades just for the sake of it. I am currently 371,5 pips up for January2008 because I did not take the setups that was emotionally unstable. Especially in the beginning of January. If I dont recognise the setup(candle emotion) as one that is normally preducing results I let it go by.

Hope this answer you.
Thanks
Phillip
  • #10,826
  • Jan 28, 2008 12:50pm Jan 28, 2008 12:50pm
Quoting Phillip Nel
Lets say there is 10 setups coming in a row looking exactly like the one today with resistance against the 200sma on 4 candles and the 5th one making a stophunt tail like that and you take all ten you will be right at least 7-8 out of 10 times and it is going to move at least 20-30 pips in your favour as a start giving you a chance to manage your risk to BE at worst. The fact that I took partial profit and set the rest at BE at worst I will make money 7-8 out of 10 times and some of them will run more than 50pips average especially on the GbpUsd.

If I was looking for TP of 100 pips and let it do or die I would have been burned today. In fact the turnaround 04:00-08:00 candle was a doji taking the orders out on the otherside and therefore purely on emotion at that point I could have went long based on that as they took out both sides.

The fact that a high probability trade is moving 20-30pips 7-8 out of 10 times it gives me the oppertunity to get to BE with some profit in the bag. If it carries on beyond that to 50 or 100 pips for 2 of those 8 trades it enlarges my profit. If I can get 3 of those trades per month that runs it helps me in my monthly target.

If the motion turns against me after a stophunt(if it really was one??) like today on GbpUsd I still have the option to scale out on my stoploss(as I expect the price to go in my favour and it does NOT) by closing 50% after 20-30pips and the rest as planned reducing the total loss. There is nou use sitting there and watch your stop being taken out if you know the move has changed. In this case the hunt was upwards and then a turnaround down. I was pretty sure that it is going to go south. I have watch this many times so I knew it. 20-30 pips was for sure.

Go through your losses up to now and tell me how many of those losses have run 20-30 pips in your favour and has then turned around to take your stop for 20-30 loss. If you could minimise those to BE your total gain will look much better.

If one is purely taking the odds on that 6 out of 10 trades is winners with a 2:1 win/loss ratio and leaves it till one side is winning my way is not going to work if I take partial profits. I have learned over the years what type of setups together with candle emotion produces positive results. Therefore I dont take trades just for the sake of it. I am currently 371,5 pips up for January2008 because I did not take the setups that was emotionally unstable. Especially in the beginning of January. If I dont recognise the setup(candle emotion) as one that is normally preducing results I let it go by.

Hope this answer you.
Thanks
Phillip

THIS IS A GREAT POST!!!

The reason I say this is because at the start I used to get nailed on stops and then it would go up, I was right 80%+ of the time but was losing money, NOW when I get into a trade I give it room to move 40-50 sometimes 60 point stop, on a fast move like today I closed it all out +50 but if we have smaller bars I will do +20-25 and move a stop at cost and let 70%ish run. The key here is to give it room to move and you have to be right. If you are 50/50 winners and losers you need to spend more chart time, you really should be 80%+ winners here or else you are taking high risk trades or just not waiting. All this really boild down to is have the CONFIDENCE in your trade, if you don't you will stare it down and close out winnners way to fast.
Keep taking CT trades, I need more money
  • #10,827
  • Jan 28, 2008 1:13pm Jan 28, 2008 1:13pm
Yen looks like it wants to make noise:

Made it above the 21, came back down to it, now looks like it is trying to resume....still eary..

Good stuff Phillip
Attached Image
  • #10,828
  • Jan 28, 2008 1:16pm Jan 28, 2008 1:16pm
Check out EURCHF
Keep taking CT trades, I need more money
  • #10,829
  • Jan 28, 2008 1:26pm Jan 28, 2008 1:26pm
I had moved my stop loss manually to +50 pips,on my euro TC rfom this morning. just got taken out at 1.4776. now wait for next setup.
TRADE WHAT YOU SEE... FOCUS ON SUCCESS
  • #10,830
  • Jan 28, 2008 1:32pm Jan 28, 2008 1:32pm
Quoting BIL2205
I had moved my stop loss manually to +50 pips,on my euro TC rfom this morning. just got taken out at 1.4776. now wait for next setup.

Nice job seems it kinda ran outa steam, Lets see what 2:30 brings. most of the time now until close we get some movement.
Keep taking CT trades, I need more money
  • #10,831
  • Edited 2:13pm Jan 28, 2008 1:45pm | Edited 2:13pm
This mornings EUR trade was a perfect TC trade - was anticipating this since last Friday.

I am still in it with 50% trailing the stop using the last 4H low - calculated & set every hour automatically.

Best thing is I haven't checked it till now.

Anyone still developing their discipline skills like myself should look into automating their plan as it has helped me a lot - not to mention you don't need to monitor your trade constantly.

Here is a screen cap of the front end I coded for automating my plan and integrating with Interactive Brokers.
Attached Image
  • #10,832
  • Jan 28, 2008 2:08pm Jan 28, 2008 2:08pm
I think it's a good stuff!! it's very good during strong trend, but i feel better to use the 21 as trailing stop, because probably the 21 will close your trade on some retracement, but you'll be able to open a position again when you'll see prices coming in your favour again.
Today i've tried to trade on different time frames from 15 min to 4h, well this sistem worked just great! i've opened 6 positions and they've been all profitable! i've used as TP and SL the MA of the higher time frames they worked really really good, if i don't have a TP in the first 20-30 pips when i touch those 20-30 pips i put my BE (but i don't take profit, at least not always depends on the volatility) and i let my contracts go (usually i open 3 contracts 2 will be TP on different S/R, i let go the third one).
I hope i didn't do something wrong writing those things, i just wanna help and try to share my experience, so if this way of trading isn't good just tell me and i'll apologise.
Thanks for these HUGE sistem finally i've found one that doesn't tell you what to do, but it just helps you on taking decision, i think this is the only way to be profitable in long term!
For all the people trading here, i think you all are "woodchuck" because you aren't looking for an EA, but you are tring too understand and too "feel" (in your hearth) forex.
Thanks again Phillip and all the others.
  • #10,833
  • Jan 28, 2008 2:15pm Jan 28, 2008 2:15pm
Quoting Ryanmcd
Nice job seems it kinda ran outa steam, Lets see what 2:30 brings. most of the time now until close we get some movement.
Thanks Ryan.
A quick note about today's trade that a lot of us took it, But look at how each one of us Managed it in our own way. some had a # of pips in mind. some targeted a Trendline. some closed before the news. i had a trailing stop and then managed it manually , i see some one still has a position open. SO the point i am trying to make here is how important it is to Make a plan and stick to it. and you should be able to live with it. No " what if " "if only i had " " why did i close so early". each one of us is unique and has our own threshhold of managing profits and loss or their trades. So congrats to all who planned and executed and manged their trades today , whichever pair it maybe. If anyone of you missed it . dont worry there will be more, You just have to WAIT for the right one. take care,
Nadia.
TRADE WHAT YOU SEE... FOCUS ON SUCCESS
  • #10,834
  • Jan 28, 2008 2:23pm Jan 28, 2008 2:23pm
Quoting BIL2205
Thanks Ryan.
A quick note about today's trade that a lot of us took it, But look at how each one of us Managed it in our own way. some had a # of pips in mind. some targeted a Trendline. some closed before the news. i had a trailing stop and then managed it manually , i see some one still has a position open. SO the point i am trying to make here is how important it is to Make a plan and stick to it. and you should be able to live with it. No " what if " "if only i had " " why did i close so early". each one of us is unique and has our own threshhold of managing profits and loss or their trades. So congrats to all who planned and executed and manged their trades today , whichever pair it maybe. If anyone of you missed it . dont worry there will be more, You just have to WAIT for the right one. take care,
Nadia.

That is so true, In the past I have helped several people trade, I would make money they would lose and we both got in at the exact same price. I like low risk stuff that's why I closed before the news, getting 70% of a move is my goal.
Keep taking CT trades, I need more money
  • #10,835
  • Jan 28, 2008 2:35pm Jan 28, 2008 2:35pm
thx philip for the answer,i got the point.i think ur right and in average(for 10 trades as an example) this kind of partial profit taking works,but for a single trade maybe sometimes doesnt.
but whould u please answer for my other question:
am i right when i wait for a retrace after candle close ?for example my eurchf trade today.
thx
  • #10,836
  • Jan 28, 2008 2:45pm Jan 28, 2008 2:45pm
hi every body
remember the red line in my saturdays post?
now price is near that and i'm waiting for a sell signal in macd .especially if this signal happends macd could give us a divergence.lets see
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eur.gif Size: 42 KB
  • #10,837
  • Jan 28, 2008 2:49pm Jan 28, 2008 2:49pm
hi all,

I missed the E/U trade 2day cause i got scared of trading on Mondays.

Would i be wrong to say that my chart below is forming a possible "Lower Highs" or "sHs" based on the rules and a probable pullback to the 8ema, the quasi bearish harami candle formation.

Please do crave my indulgence am just new starting to trade using the 4H MACD.

Thanks in anticipation of your analysis.

P.S. Was my trendline properly drawn. please advise.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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"Forex is like a bitch every trader must marry one"
  • #10,838
  • Jan 28, 2008 3:02pm Jan 28, 2008 3:02pm
I'm waiting for a head and shoulder on EU.
I hope that will happen before I go to sleep.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #10,839
  • Jan 28, 2008 3:49pm Jan 28, 2008 3:49pm
Quoting bshadroo
hi every body
remember the red line in my saturdays post?
now price is near that and i'm waiting for a sell signal in macd .especially if this signal happends macd could give us a divergence.lets see
I do remeber, actually I long eur for ZB as well and take profit for 40 pips already, the resistant line your drawed is just my 2nd target, good job.
Anyway, according to 4h rules, trend lines is the 2nd most important thing we should pay more attention after MAs.
Plan your trades and trade your plans
  • #10,840
  • Jan 28, 2008 3:51pm Jan 28, 2008 3:51pm
Hi Philip and all,

Today's trades have been a nice birthday present for all of us who took them. Today it's been 1 year since Philip started this thread. Congratulations to you Philip and long live this thread!
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