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Cesarnc's market talk, gossips, rumours & fun

  • #3,901
  • Jan 28, 2008 12:36am Jan 28, 2008 12:36am
Quoting dd33
Which pair??
lol, if you see any indication of a shong on any pair please take the trade you can't loose.
If I Go Broke Trying Then I Will die happy.
  • #3,902
  • Jan 28, 2008 12:41am Jan 28, 2008 12:41am
Treasury prices threw off early weakness and advanced Friday after a rumor that another hedge fund is in financial trouble circulated through trading rooms.

"There are a number of names of hedge funds being bandied about as possibly being in trouble," said Tom di Galoma, head of Treasurys trading at Jefferies & Co. It is impossible to discern whether the stories have any basis in fact, he said.

(...)

Although the rumor was not verified, it affected the markets, sending the major stock indexes well below their best levels and pushing Treasurys higher. Worries about weakness at financial institutions tend to spark demand for Treasurys, which carry government backing and are largely shielded from the risks of some other asset classes.
  • #3,903
  • Jan 28, 2008 12:47am Jan 28, 2008 12:47am
More on Kerviel

The bank said he plowed 30 billion euros ($44.1 billion) into the Eurostoxx index, another 18 billion euros ($26.5 billion) on the DAX in Germany and 2 billion euros ($2.9 billion) on the FTSE in London. The combined value of those positions, 50 billion euros ($73.5 billion), is far more than the bank's market capitalization of 35.9 billion euros ($52.6 billion), and close to the annual GDP of countries such as Slovakia, Qatar or Libya.

Societe Generale took three days last week to sell or offset with hedges his contracts, which amounted to bets on whether market indexes would rise or fall. But the bank sought Sunday to counter suggestions that its sell-off had caused already falling markets to plummet further than they otherwise might have done. The bank said it unwound Kerviel's positions in "a controlled fashion."

"Our impact on the market was quite minimal," Mustier said.
  • #3,904
  • Jan 28, 2008 12:52am Jan 28, 2008 12:52am
As long as stocks remain sluggish, advances in the euro against the yen will be limited which, in turn, could hamper rises in the euro versus the dollar.

Look for the euro to remain strong as investors continue to dump the U.S. dollar.

Looking ahead, the State of the Union address and new
home sales are due today.

EUR/CHF has gained momentum recently, but the upside seems limited in the short term.

USD/JPY at risk of falling toward 105 if global stocks remain weak.

USD should have some support as players unlikely to make any large one-sided bets amid uncertainties over the Fed's next rate decision.

Friday's non-farm payrolls report will confirm or deny whether the Federal Reserve has made the right decision.

Bank of England is expected to cut rates as the outlook for the U.K. economy remains shaky.

Today's Australia Day holiday ensures a slow start to the week for both AUD and NZD.

Looking ahead, Eurozone M3 money supply growth is expected to slow slightly from 12.30% yoy to 12.2% yoy in Dec but remain extremely strong.
If I Go Broke Trying Then I Will die happy.
  • #3,905
  • Jan 28, 2008 1:05am Jan 28, 2008 1:05am
Quoting Moe
i short at 1.9853, t/p 9650 i will exit half my postion at 9750. were on the same page
this is why i took half at 9750, where now back over 9800, don't know if we will see 9650, my s/l at b/e, back to bed. :
If I Go Broke Trying Then I Will die happy.
  • #3,906
  • Jan 28, 2008 1:26am Jan 28, 2008 1:26am
Things are kinda getting ugly re: the previous posts. I don't know about you moe, but I'm bailing out of GU before I lose BE status. Sell stop if it falls again, this retracement is not looking nice. I may be losing my nerve

On the other hand, USDCHF was a sweet sell(making the GBPCHF trade look still valid), and USDJPY a good buy due to a classical pinbar setup in H4.

cesar: glad your EA went in along with us. I think I had the exact same entry and exit on GJ but manual. On the dragon, I always TP at high pip gains without even looking at the chart. 100 pips in a few minutes is almost..unfair
Virtue finds and chooses the mean. Aristotle, Ethica Nichomachea
  • #3,907
  • Jan 28, 2008 1:34am Jan 28, 2008 1:34am
Quoting Plutonite
I do it in a very unorthodox manner

To put it simply, I look at the past few days and I roughly measure the average amount of movement that 4 to 6 H4 bars can make in one direction. This gives me an indicator of how much can be moved in one day given current volatility conditions. While it may not be "technically" correct as a 24HR range, it does allow me to effectively gauge my TP levels, if I am not exiting manually. Remember that the whole purpose is to know how far you can expect your trade to go. Good luck.


Ok thanks for clarifying that for me.
  • #3,908
  • Jan 28, 2008 1:46am Jan 28, 2008 1:46am
Quoting cesarnc
Morning all. Another -4% day in Tokyo helped my EA to go in and out for +100 in 2 hours, gotta love the panic...

From Societe, Kerviel was not so bad. His loss was only 10% of the U$73 BILLION positions he built.

" Kerviel, 31, who is being questioned by France's financial police for a third day, took advantage of the bank's practice of checking only net trading positions rather than gross bets to conceal his subterfuge with phony hedges, Paris-based Societe Generale said yesterday. The trading loss of 4.9 billion euros was the biggest in banking history."

It's unbelievable.
  • #3,909
  • Jan 28, 2008 2:03am Jan 28, 2008 2:03am
Quoting Plutonite
Things are kinda getting ugly re: the previous posts. I don't know about you moe, but I'm bailing out of GU before I lose BE status. Sell stop if it falls again, this retracement is not looking nice. I may be losing my nerve

On the other hand, USDCHF was a sweet sell(making the GBPCHF trade look still valid), and USDJPY a good buy due to a classical pinbar setup in H4.

cesar: glad your EA went in along with us. I think I had the exact same entry and exit on GJ but manual. On the dragon, I always TP at high pip gains without even looking at the chart. 100 pips in a few minutes is almost..unfair
Uj is now placing a pin bar in the H1, for a immediate term short setup. I'm also bailing out GJ, the second strategy went in long while stocks and futures are negative. Net 75 pips profit today, calling it a day.

Things may get confusing for carry trades this week, because of the rate statement. I have no idea how the markets are going to position themselves ahead of the news.

Still playing the sticky fingers, robbing 100 and running from the mob.

For those who like to follow other people's calls, I'd say Moe's SHONG position is the take of the day
  • #3,910
  • Jan 28, 2008 2:34am Jan 28, 2008 2:34am
Quoting cesarnc
Uj is now placing a pin bar in the H1, for a immediate term short setup. I'm also bailing out GJ, the second strategy went in long while stocks and futures are negative. Net 75 pips profit today, calling it a day.

Things may get confusing for carry trades this week, because of the rate statement. I have no idea how the markets are going to position themselves ahead of the news.

Still playing the sticky fingers, robbing 100 and running from the mob.

For those who like to follow other people's calls, I'd say Moe's SHONG position is the take of the day


Yeah - I'm all for a bit of Horizontal Action - in the right company....
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #3,911
  • Jan 28, 2008 2:57am Jan 28, 2008 2:57am
buy gbpusd @ 1.9825 sl 1.9752 tp 1.9930
  • #3,912
  • Jan 28, 2008 2:59am Jan 28, 2008 2:59am
Quoting TheCable
buy gbpusd @ 1.9825 sl 1.9752 tp 1.9930
Now why would I want to do that?
Humble Lifetime Member
  • #3,913
  • Jan 28, 2008 3:07am Jan 28, 2008 3:07am
W.T.F IS GOING ON WITH CABLE, my bad for yelling
If I Go Broke Trying Then I Will die happy.
  • #3,914
  • Jan 28, 2008 3:07am Jan 28, 2008 3:07am
Quoting Ash
Now why would I want to do that?
I'm posting what I did and not what I think u should do
  • #3,915
  • Jan 28, 2008 3:12am Jan 28, 2008 3:12am
Quoting cesarnc
Uj is now placing a pin bar in the H1, for a immediate term short setup. I'm also bailing out GJ, the second strategy went in long while stocks and futures are negative. Net 75 pips profit today, calling it a day.

Things may get confusing for carry trades this week, because of the rate statement. I have no idea how the markets are going to position themselves ahead of the news.

Still playing the sticky fingers, robbing 100 and running from the mob.

For those who like to follow other people's calls, I'd say Moe's SHONG position is the take of the day
lol, turns out my SHONG was a great call. im out, back to bed.
If I Go Broke Trying Then I Will die happy.
  • #3,916
  • Jan 28, 2008 3:13am Jan 28, 2008 3:13am
Quoting Ash
Now why would I want to do that?
You shouldn't question the power of the Bulgarian prophets My glass ball tells me that gbp/jpy is going downwards.
  • #3,917
  • Jan 28, 2008 3:13am Jan 28, 2008 3:13am
Quoting TheCable
I'm posting what I did and not what I think u should do
Thank you. It would help out if you would have clearly phrased it "brought gbpusd @ 1.9825 sl 1.9752 tp 1.9930" Or "I brought gbpusd @ 1.9825 sl 1.9752 tp 1.9930" or "I purchased gbpusd @ 1.9825 sl 1.9752 tp 1.9930, Tally Ho".
Humble Lifetime Member
  • #3,918
  • Jan 28, 2008 3:14am Jan 28, 2008 3:14am
Quoting TheCable
I'm posting what I did and not what I think u should do
we don't have infighting in this thread, we reserve that for cable thread.
If I Go Broke Trying Then I Will die happy.
  • #3,919
  • Jan 28, 2008 3:15am Jan 28, 2008 3:15am
Quoting Moe
lol, turns out my SHONG was a great call. im out, back to bed.
Do you ever sleep?
Humble Lifetime Member
  • #3,920
  • Jan 28, 2008 3:16am Jan 28, 2008 3:16am
B.T.W. do we all have the power to give out infraction and help get someone ban?
If I Go Broke Trying Then I Will die happy.
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