Daily Cable Analysis

I see eur/usd going down to 1.2945 then rising 1.3208

gbp/usd 1.9281 then rising to 1.9508

i see euro to go to 1.2820, then north to 1.40
cable to 1.900 before 1.9800...but im more certain in oil thats is forming the head...

I appreciate the information being displayed, it is helpful in terms of seeing it throught the eyes of others.

I went to sleep a little earlier last night, and I have not really even thought of trading so far today.

I took a drive into the mountains this morning to get away from the market, and try to re-think some things through.

I have found a time to relax my mind during this slow period, and try to realize where I am missing pieces of the puzzle.

For the remainder of this week, I will not be posting any positions I am taking (but I will be in trades everyday, but not until price moves some more).

I want to reorganize my charts, and analysis a little more detailed.

We must remember that even though we are in the battle here today, and trying to squeeze little profits, we must be aware their is a market that is much bigger.

I will be analyzing and posting a very long term to short term analysis of the market, and where we are today in relation to the whole scope of the Cable.

This will take some time, so I have set aside the remainder of this week, and this weekend to scour some more data.

Hope everyone is making some profits, they are few and far between, but we shall see it move once again.

I will be back around Frankfrut Open.

Good Trading Folks.

hi chaps,

my daily contribution. see charts with support-resistance-trend on 1hr, 4hr, day, week, month

1hr-uptrend, pullback to support
4hr, having broken resistance, uptrend, pullback
day breaking first line of resistance
week, pullback but reversing from first line of support
month uptrend

had a terrible day. loss of 40 pips. got a long signal at 20, stopped out at 9400

g

Thanks ghitz, I'll have a look at these charts tomorrow, when get back to my desktop... - freaking laptop+dialup connection here makes trading unbearable.

Well, in one of the forex-related books I've read, one thing got tatooed in my mind... "It is not you that make you profit. It is the market and your strategy - only". Sad but true: the marketing is giving NO PROFIT today.. And I dare saying that while Euro hangs in the 1.3000 vicinity, forget it.

I see that we are stuck here trying to take milk out of a rock - profiting in a day like that? Hard task... Loosing money for a market like that - frustrating... I was also forced to stay out of my desktop today, so I had the chance to realize that I was still insisting in making profits at all costs... The overall result was failure...

In a broader view, if I had been smart enough to trade accordingly at the 9300 area, I wouldn't be frustrated on a day like today. Actually, I would be thinking - too good it didn't go down 200 pips . The good news: if I get smart enough to trade this 9400 accordingly maybe I'll be sleeping a lot better next week... We all fail. Courage is in the trial....

Now a broader view for us to put in our charts...

1)- EUR sitting on a sensitive area... 1.3000 is a)- a freaking MAGNET attracting and b) a strong psycological milestone repelling... A fight for days to come...

2)- There are market makers at the 1.3000 area that are not willing to give it up. In the other hand, there are many good perspectives for a natural EUR rising - interests, Oil countries buying EUR, two new contries in the zone, so far...

So Cable is still to suffer from this situation, unless GBPEUR decides to cut loose from the arena...

3)- At the same time, USDJPY is in the vicinities of a reported HUUUUGE resistance - the 120.00. So damn huge that the pair is failing at 30 pips below it. Can't even touch it.

Although Cables 1.9300 sounds like an important support, I don't think this is a big a support to stall all the markets around. Cable is stuck - Do you guys agree with that?

There will be extraordinary opportunities for us if those S&Rs are broken or if the pairs bounce at it. Cable will shortly become either a wingless pigeon or the first British rocket. We just have to give it a time and play it smoothly when the time comes....

My view...

César

Days like this happen myfriend I have not taken a trade today the key that I have learned is there is always tomorrow and not to force anything (which I did in the past with poor results)

wingless pigeon??

the dailys confirmed today on the positive reversal, a follow through on the weeklys and away we go. This would be a good time to begin looking for long setups.

I do not know. I would rather like a short stablished @ 1.9325 with a stop @ 1.9375 and a trailing-stop as tightened as you could...

Wow,

The GBP/USD looks like the markets were closed today or something. Less than 70pips movement from GBP open to US close.

Makes you wonder.

Darnell

Maybe market is confused... and is just trying to make up its mind...

Okay, I am analysing the movement thus far this week, and this is my thoughts.

I opened up a New Daily Chart with absolutely no markings on it, and said, "what is happening here?"

This is not the longest term I am analysing right now, but for the present I have come to this conlusion.

This is not a recommendation for posititon entries, but solely for analyzing purposes.

Start at the Low 10-11-2005 at 1.8515
High 12-1-2006 at 1.9846.

The Retracement for this movement is as follows:
38.2% 1.9339 (completed)
This was completed last Friday at close of candle - this also set us up with a double daily bottom within 3 pips, and stopped just short of the bottom of a Andrews Pitchfork Channel and bounced upwards from there.
50% 1.9182 (not completed)
68.1% 1.9028 (not completed)

So looking at the High 12-1-2006 at 1.9846 we then draw a Fibo down to 1.9260 that was the Low 1-8-2007 (yesterday).

The Retracement for this movement is as follows:
38.2% 1.9493 (38 pips from completion)
50% 1.9564 (not completed)
61.% 1.9635 (not completed)

Now upon review of the range movements that GBP has had for the past 7 weeks, it has made an average of 287 for 6 weeks, and last week was larger than average which makes the completed 7 weeks prior range at 315 pips.

The Low was set on 1-7-2007 (after market opened) we estimate from that mark at 1.9260 and we see two scenario set ups:

1. Previous average 6 weeks is 287 pips - that would place us at 1.9547 - and complete the 38.2% Fibo retracement, and come near to 50% at 1.9564.

2. Now counting last weeks downward movement which was 486 pips total it would increase the 7 week average distance to 315 pips. Add this to the Low 1.9260 and it would come to 1.9575 completing the 50% Fibo retracement level.

No matter if Scenario 1 or 2 transpires, we still need to clear the Fibo for the downward movement from 12-1-2006.

This price range yesterday and today is straddling the middle of the distance noted in scenario 1 at 1.9403 - and scenario 2 at 1.9417

Watching the price drop here.

Fibo marks for the Hourly is as follows:

Low was 1.9260
High was 1.9455 (195 pips distance)

38.2% 1.9381 (completed just now)
50% 1.9358 (completed just now)
61.8% 1.9335 (seen this number resist us a lot Monday)

Hey guys,

Longer term, I think I'm going short when and IF the price hits 1.9342 tomorrow. Good luck to all

I'm going to add to my short right here 1.9356

I am watching for the price to be supported here around 1.9339 area which is the Fibo 38.2% mark of the Retracement for Low 10-11-06 to High 12-1-06.

error: I put 10-11-05 on the last post concerning the Daily -
should be 10-11-2006 instead.

The 61.8% Fibo retracement for the upwards movement this week so far is at 1.9336 - 3 pips below the 38.2 Fibo I just posted on the Daily.

Would you be thinking about opening a short Cable if it reaches 1.9325?

This is a tight spot here at the 1.9330-1.9340 area, it may take a lot of pressure to push through, I expect a strong support here after watching this mark yesterday hold down as a resistance.

Resistance becomes a Support.

This would not be recommendation, but we have made a completion of the
1 Hour, Daily, and Monthly time frame Fibo's levels on the upward move from 10-11-06 to 12-1-06 meeting a 38.2% retracement level minimum.

We are in a upwards movement for the week, and now that we have cleared the Fibo levels noted above, and we just completed the Fibo for the move upwards for this week so far, there is a straighter shot to the top around 1.9500 or 50% level around 1.9547 area to clear the 38.2% Fibo and the 50% Fibo for the Downward Movement from 12-1-06 to 1-7-07. This would also meet our distance range at 287 pip average.

Wow, hope your not confused, I understand it, but to type it?