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Indicator Free Trading - Skunny

  • #2,821
  • Jan 28, 2008 12:29am Jan 28, 2008 12:29am
Oops, meant to post this 1 hour view. I've also noticed that if retracement does not get past the 38.2 line, the trend will generally continue (mid term time frames). Notice on both the blue and pink fibs, retracement goes no further than 38.2
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Has what you wanted to see made you blind?
  • #2,822
  • Jan 28, 2008 12:59am Jan 28, 2008 12:59am
Quoting Dunkan
Oops, meant to post this 1 hour view. I've also noticed that if retracement does not get past the 38.2 line, the trend will generally continue (mid term time frames). Notice on both the blue and pink fibs, retracement goes no further than 38.2
Dunkan,

That Orange fib is exactly how I have my "master" fib drawn too. So now that we are watching the inner fib retracement action this week we'll see what happens.

That pink fib of yours which shows 4 bounces off of the 38 confirms a perfect entry set up in the DZ entry area aka (Islander style) and also confirms what galaxy mom found in Skunny's other post too. Getting the early entry so you have a tighter stop loss if it goes bad but also getting what??? 200 pips +. I wish I was on my computer earlier to get that one.
trading naked.......
  • #2,823
  • Jan 28, 2008 1:18am Jan 28, 2008 1:18am
Quoting piphitman
Dunkan,

That Orange fib is exactly how I have my "master" fib drawn too. So now that we are watching the inner fib retracement action this week we'll see what happens.

That pink fib of yours which shows 4 bounces off of the 38 confirms a perfect entry set up in the DZ entry area aka (Islander style) and also confirms what galaxy mom found in Skunny's other post too. Getting the early entry so you have a tighter stop loss if it goes bad but also getting what??? 200 pips +. I wish I was on my computer earlier to get that one.
Yep, works (worked ) really well for weekly pipage totals. Here is a blown up view (smaller) of same with new fib which may activate.. oh, and has. If this one fails (had one fail earlier), maybe time to get short again..
Has what you wanted to see made you blind?
  • #2,824
  • Jan 28, 2008 1:21am Jan 28, 2008 1:21am
Btw, not recommending this as a trade for anyone...
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Has what you wanted to see made you blind?
  • #2,825
  • Jan 28, 2008 1:32am Jan 28, 2008 1:32am
Ahhh I see, I was wondering how u pulled that blue fib and orange
trading naked.......
  • #2,826
  • Jan 28, 2008 1:41am Jan 28, 2008 1:41am
Here we have a beautiful pin bar, fib cluster and s/r line.
Bounced to the pip... a classic!
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"The only successful substitute for brains is silence."
  • #2,827
  • Jan 28, 2008 1:57am Jan 28, 2008 1:57am
Longs were apparently on while market focus may be shifting to this blue one's inner fibs, and my focus shifts to the inside of my eyelids. See y'all in the morning.
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Has what you wanted to see made you blind?
  • #2,828
  • Edited 3:37am Jan 28, 2008 3:30am | Edited 3:37am
Hey,

Just woke up and checked out those posts Galaxymom! wild!! new stuff takes the sting off of having all my GY fibs hit uber sloppy. grrr...makes me growly EJ GU perfect GY...utter failure in accuracy. well I am testing/vetting/or scrapping my theory this afternoon now. Fishsticks!!

Anywho, I remade those Skunny charts , GBP/USD failed if you had gone SHT like that you would have been smoked. both the long on GU and the short on GY were sloppy too. hmm... ok so traderminded, lets assume we don't care about pipperfect lets assume we CAN'T get pipperfection "shudder" hehe we just want to win.

I would posit.. why not just trade price straight then? For example I will use Dunkans 4h Geppy chart no fibs no nothing just my one good eye narr!!

Just popped a Dubya, D1 showing an unconfirmed pin. so I am H4 with an eye on D1.
Take a long on another bull bar close or a sht on the break down close of immediate support. If I was feeling frisky I would zoom in on price for early confirmation to the H1 and ride on that. My near term bias is long based on what I can see making that potential short right now a "risky" trade and I would look twice at it. market's call not mine. I don't have to be good at portenting just reacting and listening.

wayyy out of my box of my "theories" on fibs, having a sacred cow bbq and devils advocating against myself, I would "just" be using fibs confirming /denying /clarifing my sls and tps since the charts talks alot but doesn't always enunciate fully ..Am I off base fellow Skunnions ?
Sizz
  • #2,829
  • Jan 28, 2008 4:30am Jan 28, 2008 4:30am
Quoting sizzler
Hey,

I would posit.. why not just trade price straight then? For example I will use Dunkans 4h Geppy chart no fibs no nothing just my one good eye narr!!

wayyy out of my box of my "theories" on fibs, having a sacred cow bbq and devils advocating against myself, I would "just" be using fibs confirming /denying /clarifing my sls and tps since the charts talks alot but doesn't always enunciate fully ..Am I off base fellow Skunnions ?
Sizz
Now, now Sizz, don't throw the baby out with the bath water. This has to be why Skunny told us to stay away from the BEAST! We need to refocus on the Majors. Besides, all we Skunnions are testing, scrapping, testing, scrapping..............it is part of this journey we have committed to walk on this path less traveled. Keep your notes, prove your theories, you never know, the next bend in the road might just give validity to the thing that didn't work before. Don't give up!!! I know we will find our way in time.

PS: There are more explanations as to why fib levels do not always work out pip perfect, but for Fear of a Skunny spanking, I won't post them. He wants us to find a way to get them within 10 pips after all. He says it can be done, and he should know.

Press on toward the mark fellow Skunnions!
Mom "To conquer fear is the beginning of wisdom." – Bertrand Russell
  • #2,830
  • Jan 28, 2008 4:48am Jan 28, 2008 4:48am
Quoting sizzler
Hey,
Anywho, I remade those Skunny charts , GBP/USD failed if you had gone SHT like that you would have been smoked. both the long on GU and the short on GY were sloppy too. hmm... ok so traderminded, lets assume we don't care about pipperfect lets assume we CAN'T get pipperfection "shudder" hehe we just want to win.
Sizz,

hope you had a nice weekend. I re-did those Skunny charts too. you are correct in that the G/U never hit short but......look at what price he entered, (2.0380) there was a penetration at the 0 line (2.0291), almost 100 pips. my guess is that it was at least a BE trade or maybe a smaller TP because of his early entry, but then if he waited and took the trade to the other side he made around 100 pips or more there.

What I want to know is what are all those "hairs" doing on that chart?
trading naked.......
  • #2,831
  • Jan 28, 2008 5:05am Jan 28, 2008 5:05am
Quoting galaxymom
Now, now Sizz, don't throw the baby out with the bath water. This has to be why Skunny told us to stay away from the BEAST! We need to refocus on the Majors. Besides, all we Skunnions are testing, scrapping, testing, scrapping..............it is part of this journey we have committed to walk on this path less traveled. Keep your notes, prove your theories, you never know, the next bend in the road might just give validity to the thing that didn't work before. Don't give up!!! I know we will find our way in time.

PS: There are more explanations as to why fib levels do not always work out pip perfect, but for Fear of a Skunny spanking, I won't post them. He wants us to find a way to get them within 10 pips after all. He says it can be done, and he should know.

Press on toward the mark fellow Skunnions!

hehehe thanks Mom sometimes you need yer mom! I don;t think there is any danger of me giving up ever.

I am awake now and know what I did. I think. I hit ever tp I set down so i didn;t have any losers and after correction on a mis fib(obvious in retro) I think my worst blow out was 15 pips. My biggest issue right now is laser focusing I haven;t had an outright failure (by my definition breaking the opposite boundary) in a blue moon. My fibss are most accurate on small tfs statistically.

I hypothesize it is due to noise and market move and bad fibbing since the same methodology yielded ther results I am expecting from it on other pairs I am left to assume there was some swan or something. I will test it.

yes teh geppy picks up a lot of steam and goes nuts. It isn;t that bad at all. it is a big baby as long as you aren;t caught with your longjohns on in shorts weather



Sizz
  • #2,832
  • Jan 28, 2008 5:05am Jan 28, 2008 5:05am
Good morning all - this week I'm trying not to post 'cause I thought I might be too much away from Skunny's ideas. Then I read Galaxymom's last two posts and just couldn't resist......

from Skunny's post "Hey guys, throwing in my $.02 on this last move. I've been trying to tame GY (yea I know good luck).
Because this pair generally moves too fast for short term fib entries (the way we use them on cable), with GY you need to enter more often than not on the retracement instead of trying to fly into the waterfall."

So here Skunny is telling us on GJ to trade off the 38% - 62% retracements - mm, what I've called the Decision Zone.

Also, from Galaxymom's comments: "He wants us to find a way to get them within 10 pips after all. He says it can be done, and he should know".

So within 10 pips is fine - now is that 10 pips on UJ - thus 20 pips on GJ? - any ideas? - so this IMO confirms that at this stage in our knowledge we should not be concerned with pinpoint accuracy - so Sizz, no need to beat yourself up when its not to the pip!

Thanks GM for finding this and bringing it to our attention http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gif
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #2,833
  • Jan 28, 2008 5:10am Jan 28, 2008 5:10am
I have been able to get the correct TP at least to the pip, except for one trade last week where price didn't bulge after it hit 214. My TP was 214.11, but after seeing the close of that candle I exited the trade still with profit. I would say, on the GJ if it leaves you in the positive, close and come back for the rest later......
  • #2,834
  • Jan 28, 2008 7:58am Jan 28, 2008 7:58am
Skunny did mention waiting on retracements before entry a while back
Quoting Skunny
I'll say it again, if your stop is in a place where you aren't prepared to place a trade in opposite direction, you have some work to do. If the chart allows a trade I'll take it. If it's in contradiction to a trade I should have been in or am in I don't take it. Sounds like a bunch of crap but it's that simple. To this day I find myself saying.....hmmm I think it will go there or I feel fundamentals are poor, so I think it's going here. This is about the worst thing you can do for your trading. I let my fibs do the talking and I listen.

I'll state this again for everyone. When you back test, it's the ones that don't work out that you learn the most from. Spend an hour trying to figure out why if you have to. You might pull 30 fibs trying to figure it out. But once you do you'll remember the circumstance. If you can't figure it out, you better not take that trade ever again. Most likely you will find the answer you're looking for. As far as risk goes, if your fib range is 300 pips you need to identify the percent of your acct you are going to risk(on every trade) 2%,4%??? Whatever the number is....the number is. If you want to risk 1% of $1000 that's $10.00 you need to spread out over 300 pips, that's about $.03/pip and projecting 38% you stand to gain 114 pips x .03 = $3.42. So you risk 10 for 3.42. so you need to have at least 3 good trades to every bad trade. Sounds good enough to me. I personally will wait to see if it retraces to the inner fibs before I would enter changing all those numbers to benefit me more.
The market is like the matrix - it is you that must learn to bend
  • #2,835
  • Jan 28, 2008 8:45am Jan 28, 2008 8:45am
Quoting waitt96411
Hello, late arrival here. Great thread - thanks to all!!! Never felt a need to post or join FF until now. I've been working for a couple of weeks on this thread and have finally caught up. I feel like I've eaten too much and need to lay down on a warm rock to digest it all. But I keep on getting back up and eating more.... I'm not sure if it was decided which pair to stick to - but I was walking Fibs along the H1 EJ and I don't know how to "walk around" the lows on 1/22. There has to be a way to explain them w/o triggering a sell. The D1 just hit its target on 1/21 and 1/22 may just be the rest of the steam going out. I can't seem to explain it from the H1 alone. If anyone can add some insight I would greatly appreciate it.
Hi, take a look at my post 2629, thats how I did it. The last fib involves moving the 2nd fib 0 line to the low after the 138 is hit, (in this case only 1/2 pips approx),which I believe Skunny has indicated we should do in certain circumstances,can't remember if I imagined it, no-one else has mentioned it, so be careful, I might be wrong.
  • #2,836
  • Jan 28, 2008 9:41am Jan 28, 2008 9:41am
Hi all,
The Euro set up nicely this morning. With a break of the previous range it extended to the 138 (better seen on a 15 minute) and then retraced and now has broken that high. As of this writing it has not made it to the next target which is 4808. Any thoughts??? Am I wrong?.....oh Skunnnnnnyyyyyyyy....or any one else for that matter have any opinions on my analysis?

I know the Euro is SLOOOOOOWWWWWWW, but still accurate.

Daniel
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  • #2,837
  • Jan 28, 2008 9:44am Jan 28, 2008 9:44am
He is my Euro chart so you can see the original fib....
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  • #2,838
  • Jan 28, 2008 10:23am Jan 28, 2008 10:23am
Quoting piphitman
Sizz,

hope you had a nice weekend. I re-did those Skunny charts too. you are correct in that the G/U never hit short but......look at what price he entered, (2.0380) there was a penetration at the 0 line (2.0291), almost 100 pips. my guess is that it was at least a BE trade or maybe a smaller TP because of his early entry, but then if he waited and took the trade to the other side he made around 100 pips or more there.

What I want to know is what are all those "hairs" doing on that chart?
PHM,

yeah hope you did too. I am much more relaxed taking fridays/sundays off again..and not staying up all night. LOL.

My take on that GU chart would be this.. not a fib trade like a SKunny fib but a simple support resistance play. ( my favorite) hard bounce in a bear market take it on the logical retrace point via fiband your "safe" tp is dah dah the 0 line.

IMO you would have set the fib and watched it play out and a few bars later you hit true support at that point in time I would have redrawn my fib and if I was still in the trade exited as I would know my fib to be wrongalore maximore.

I know those hairs, and histograms. You have to know how to trade not using them to use them IMO...GASP! indis ahh!

truth is you don;t NEED anything at all but the chart or really basically just a price feed..
for example just by looking at a chart that GY I called out here I would have been personally stopped out at 110 pips profit on the 1hr and still in the 4HR..

My indicator was the chart , my madcow and my one good eye What are those called? v trades or something? anyone?

.
Sizz
  • #2,839
  • Jan 28, 2008 11:09am Jan 28, 2008 11:09am
Quoting sizzler
My take on that GU chart would be this.. not a fib trade like a SKunny fib but a simple support resistance play. ( my favorite) hard bounce in a bear market take it on the logical retrace point via fiband your "safe" tp is dah dah the 0 line.
Sizz
Sizz.

That makes a lot of sense, I've seen that happen before but never thought about trading it in that way. I think it was on the GEPPY on or around Nov 7 when there was that HUGE initial hard drop then retrace.

Thanks........ I'll have to remember that lil nugget of wisdom....
trading naked.......
  • #2,840
  • Edited 11:20am Jan 28, 2008 11:10am | Edited 11:20am
I posted this Friday in advance. Isn't this a perfect placement from last night? If you split the difference on the high, you will see why the target was off by 3-5 pips. Some traders were looking at the high of 214.00 while others like me were choosing the more conservative 213.79 just to get the win and be a few pips short of the TP 161.8. Let me know what you think. But, doesn't this answer your pip perfect questions?
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