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Tiki Trader Trades

  • #401
  • Jan 25, 2008 8:43am Jan 25, 2008 8:43am
Quoting KissFan
Maybe in a couple of days we'll see a deformed looking silhouette of a guy with a long left arm
OK kissfan.... are you still in... we start down... slow and easy...
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  • #402
  • Jan 25, 2008 10:07am Jan 25, 2008 10:07am
I believe actually I did move it at one point to down under the Pin... then I saw price come down some and make aother reversal up somewhere, and that's when I moved the stop back up with my thought that if it hits my stop... well that would just be that...

The CHF trade did not go well at all after the surprise rate cut announcemnt... I lost my expectation after that... I still see price wants to come up... I believe it will... and I still may renenter on this... but pretty sure it will be on the diveregence idea that still has a chance to develope...

When I put my stop... I have already calculated how much I will lose... and I make the trade based on how much I am willing to lose... so moving my stop further away is something I almost never do... The CHF was an exception and only because I had not risked even 1% of my account to start with so moving it down under the Pin made it 1%... I was OK with it...

The CHF trade also was a trade of the weekly Pin... and I think a daily Pin too... I expect Pins to take off on the next candle or after no more than two candles... otherwise I become suspicious that the Pins are not going to work out.... and sure enough, look at CHF today... ending week with a big doji... we are still in the same place after a week...

I see CHF as trying to turn around... maybe this next week we will finally get a green candle...

Another thing on stops... if anything... if I see the trade starting to go against me, and I decide to stay in... I most likely will be tightening my stop... !!! Once you see the trade not doing what you thought it would.... you are probably right... it's not doing what you want...!!!! Get ready to bail... or at least cut the loss to less...

Quoting byorkFX
Hi Tiki. I'm really enjoying your trading journal - I hope that you don't mind that I hang around and don't post much (yet) since I'm still trying to get my feet wet. I had a similar analysis to your USD/CHF trade that went "wrong" after the Fed rate change. I'm trying to get a better feel for how to handle moving stops, and I was wondering if you ever considered moving your stop to the bottom of the weekly pin bar after you were in your trade. I know that you are very good at keeping your risk to a certain percent per trade, but do you ever consider moving your stop once your trade is placed if it looks like you might have placed it in the wrong place? You commented in a prior post that you probably should have placed your stop under the weekly pin and it looks like that would still have you in the trade. I'm not trying to make you wish you had done something different, but I'm learning a lot in your journal about strict risk management and was wondering if you ever move your stops to a more risky position after a trade is open.

In case you're curious about my position or in case you want to comment to help me out, I almost closed out my position when your stop was hit but I left it open since the CHF wasn't moving when the EUR was and I decided that it was worth the extra pips to risk it since I already had my set risk at the stop level below the weekly pin.

Thank you for your great journal!

-Brian
  • #403
  • Jan 25, 2008 10:23am Jan 25, 2008 10:23am
Quoting Tiki Trader
OK kissfan.... are you still in... we start down... slow and easy...
Still in. Not used to staying in one this long (unless I'm trying to recoup a loss). Studying some flashcards that I made from that candlestick link you sent me. Thanks!
  • #404
  • Jan 25, 2008 10:59am Jan 25, 2008 10:59am
If you trade daily time frame... expect to be in a while... takes longer, but the rewards are greater, and the stress is less.........

Quoting KissFan
Still in. Not used to staying in one this long (unless I'm trying to recoup a loss). Studying some flashcards that I made from that candlestick link you sent me. Thanks!
  • #405
  • Jan 25, 2008 11:10am Jan 25, 2008 11:10am
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080125/...re/wall_street

Perhaps this is why JPY trade couldn't take off... it is just a reminder that there is lot's more bad news to come... to think it is all fixed with a couple of good stock days is just BS....

Long trades on JPYs are risky right now, and probably will be for a while...

You are right Scarlet.... let's find a place to short....!
  • #406
  • Jan 25, 2008 1:59pm Jan 25, 2008 1:59pm
Quoting Tiki Trader
Woke up to find JPY why gone up a bit, and now back down... no news left for today... slow day going to be maybe ?? I closed this trade out at BE...
too bad...
117.90 was a nice long and reverse short target.... triple confluence ..:surprised It can't get any easier than that..in this "down trend market"
.
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  • #407
  • Jan 25, 2008 3:22pm Jan 25, 2008 3:22pm
Quoting raczekfx
too bad...
117.90 was a nice long and reverse short target.... triple confluence ..:surprised It can't get any easier than that..in this "down trend market"
.

I got spooked on this one as well. Closed for 4 pip gain. Guess I take the wife to Taco Bell tonight......I just don't know how she'll pay for her meal:.

KissFan
  • #408
  • Jan 26, 2008 11:39am Jan 26, 2008 11:39am
The daily Pin on this pair is beautiful.... but I must wonder if it is just there to fake us out... Daily Pin Bar.... against a weekly pinnish bar... not a good combination....

I step back and see price trying to come up... I have gone as far back in my MT4 history as it goes... and EVERY time price is set-up like it is now... price having come down below the blue 800, and the red 62 between the 800 and 200... price has come back up to hit the 800... First time back also...

No trade on the daily Pin Bar.... BUT, I will watch carefully, and if the daily pin is negated... I will make a long with target of 800 sma...
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  • #409
  • Jan 26, 2008 11:44am Jan 26, 2008 11:44am
YTD Balance + 3.5 %

Hey Tiki - great start to the year

Kind Regards
Steve
  • #410
  • Jan 26, 2008 11:59am Jan 26, 2008 11:59am
BUOB on weekly... bouncing off 150 ma... daily... price coming up... Good to go long on break of weekly BUOB.... Targets..... 2.0000, 23 fib line... weekly trend line....
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  • #411
  • Jan 26, 2008 12:03pm Jan 26, 2008 12:03pm
Thank YOU steviet....!!! the GOD of GBP/JPY.... !!! I have a friend who needs a few pips... can you please send a few her way...? !!


Quoting steviet
YTD Balance + 3.5 %

Hey Tiki - great start to the year

Kind Regards
Steve
  • #412
  • Jan 26, 2008 12:14pm Jan 26, 2008 12:14pm
This pair still has the divergence trade going for it... only now price is beginning to come down out of overbought... short trade valid until price goes oversold... SHORT after break of the BEB and 62 ema...

Weekly BEOB SHORT on break...

Targets 1.000 38 fib...
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  • #413
  • Jan 26, 2008 12:20pm Jan 26, 2008 12:20pm
Quoting Tiki Trader
Thank YOU steviet....!!! the GOD of GBP/JPY.... !!! I have a friend who needs a few pips... can you please send a few her way...? !!
LOL Tiki

As you know I'm very protective of my pips hehe - must be some sort of hoarding instinct :

Seriously, that daily pin looks a cracker until you look at the weekly - the pair used to be indecisive but now it's not so sure. It's one to watch like a hawk but we should see at least a test of the 210.50 area and then a case of looking at the shorter timeframes and how it reacts if it breaks 210.

Keep the faith my friend - as I say, great start and little by little you'll get there!

Kind Regards
Steve
  • #414
  • Jan 26, 2008 12:24pm Jan 26, 2008 12:24pm
I think it has made its big downs.... after this it will be more of a bumpy road down further... I probably will stay out of this one for a while...


Quoting steviet
LOL Tiki

As you know I'm very protective of my pips hehe - must be some sort of hoarding instinct :

Seriously, that daily pin looks a cracker until you look at the weekly - the pair used to be indecisive but now it's not so sure. It's one to watch like a hawk but we should see at least a test of the 210.50 area and then a case of looking at the shorter timeframes and how it reacts if it breaks 210.

Keep the faith my friend - as I say, great start and little by little you'll get there!

Kind Regards
Steve
  • #415
  • Jan 26, 2008 12:28pm Jan 26, 2008 12:28pm
Big weekly Pin Bar off the trend line... looking at daily makes me more distrustful... and the huge potential stop needed to trade the weekly PB... I will watch and see what happens on daily... maybe the pin will break up, I will cross that bridge when we get there...

There is a good way to trade it on daily if price chooses to go up...
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  • #416
  • Edited 1:35pm Jan 26, 2008 12:37pm | Edited 1:35pm
I must say... I still come back to this time and time again... my trade setup hopes here still remain for the divergence.... I believe it will come to pass....

Look at all the First time backs.... I belive the first time back rule probably works on any systems MAs........ ( my theory )

I WILL take this trade when the moment is right.......
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  • #417
  • Edited 1:47pm Jan 27, 2008 1:03pm | Edited 1:47pm
Forgot to post about this very good weekly Pin... probably best bet of the day...

Placing LONG order @ 1.6170 with break above the 38 fib and 150 ema... Target at least 1.6325 but better if 23 fib and trendline @ 1.6425... STOP @ 1.5900 which is 800 and 200 ma's

Risk 1%.... potential about 1% too....
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  • #418
  • Jan 27, 2008 1:34pm Jan 27, 2008 1:34pm
Placing order...

LONG @ 1.9875 Target 2.0055 STOP @ 1.9720

Risk 0.8 %... Potential about 1%
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  • #419
  • Jan 27, 2008 1:45pm Jan 27, 2008 1:45pm
Last order for today...

I am not going to play that pretty daily Pin Bar... looks sooooooooo tempting, but instead, I am place long order for negation of the daily Pin... I say price will head soon for the 800 sma.... I have looked back in my charts as far back as they go... anytime price has been in this situtation... passing below 800... with 62 inbetween 800 and 200.... price always goes back to the 800...

LONG order @ 214.50 Target 800 sma @ 216.00 Stop @ 212.00

Risk 0.9% Potential 0.6 %
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  • #420
  • Jan 27, 2008 1:49pm Jan 27, 2008 1:49pm
Total risk on trades placed today... about 2.9% .... That's a lot for me !!! Careful Tiki...............
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