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  • #721
  • Jan 22, 2008 11:26pm Jan 22, 2008 11:26pm
Quoting DaddyWarbuck
hey mike,

i know it hasn't closed yet but this is a pretty nice pinbar sitting right under the tl. you think a break below the 24/28 ema would be a good entry if it pans out?

EDIT: do you normally wait a see how the bar closes after the pinbar? i was looking back at previous pinbars and usually waiting for another bar to close helped with determining whether the pinbar was valid or not.
Confirmation bars are always a good idea in conservative trading. That pin bar, being at resistance, is enough to me to post a smaller trade in and then wait for the confirmation bar afterwards to post a larger trade on the position. I've noticed that it normally depends on why the pinbar formed. In other words, if you look to the lower timeframes and realize that it formed as a double top or something on the hourlies then your probably good to short right off the bat. It really depends on how and why it was formed. If it was formed on what could be a retracement, then the confirmation bar is prime to use. Hope that could help and have a great night man
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #722
  • Jan 22, 2008 11:28pm Jan 22, 2008 11:28pm
It just takes time and practice to be able to determine these things. Check out most of those 4 hour pins on the yen pairs DWB, they all were right at resistance zones and that told us that price was rejecting the level above the resistance.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #723
  • Jan 23, 2008 11:16am Jan 23, 2008 11:16am
Quoting mike w
Confirmation bars are always a good idea in conservative trading. That pin bar, being at resistance, is enough to me to post a smaller trade in and then wait for the confirmation bar afterwards to post a larger trade on the position. I've noticed that it normally depends on why the pinbar formed. In other words, if you look to the lower timeframes and realize that it formed as a double top or something on the hourlies then your probably good to short right off the bat. It really depends on how and why it was formed. If it was formed on what could be a retracement, then the confirmation bar is prime to use. Hope that could help and have a great night man
awesome advice. thx mike

also, what do you think of this channel gbpjpy is trading in?

do you always draw your tls to the highs? because in this case, the price broke through the bottom tl on the 15th but then closed above on the next bar...after that, the tl works real nice with the next test on the 21st. would you consider this a valid tl or would you have moved it so that it touched the low on the 15th?

also, on the top of the channel we have something similar and you can see how the pin bar pierced it but then close right below....every other time price tested the tl, it touched the tl and dropped.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpjpy4hrchannel.gif Size: 21 KB
  • #724
  • Jan 23, 2008 12:08pm Jan 23, 2008 12:08pm
Quoting DaddyWarbuck
awesome advice. thx mike

also, what do you think of this channel gbpjpy is trading in?

do you always draw your tls to the highs? because in this case, the price broke through the bottom tl on the 15th but then closed above on the next bar...after that, the tl works real nice with the next test on the 21st. would you consider this a valid tl or would you have moved it so that it touched the low on the 15th?

also, on the top of the channel we have something similar and you can see how the pin bar pierced it but then close right below....every other time price tested the tl, it touched the tl and dropped.
I would definitely consider that a valid channel. Price will undoubtedly test areas of support and resistance. If it doesn't breach and make a close above or below these areas, respectively, then they are still valid in my point of view. Nice work DWB!
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #725
  • Jan 23, 2008 5:03pm Jan 23, 2008 5:03pm
mike,

just saw your post on auslanco's thread. nice find on the 1hr pinbar. however, the last 1hr just closed as a pinbar too but in the opposite direction. does that mean price is undecided right now? i don't see why price would break that t/l considering we are in a long term down trend
  • #726
  • Jan 23, 2008 7:41pm Jan 23, 2008 7:41pm
Quoting DaddyWarbuck
mike,

just saw your post on auslanco's thread. nice find on the 1hr pinbar. however, the last 1hr just closed as a pinbar too but in the opposite direction. does that mean price is undecided right now? i don't see why price would break that t/l considering we are in a long term down trend
We aren't exactly at the trendline yet though are we? This is something for you to think about. Price can move around quite a bit, especially looking on lower timeframes such as the hourly before making a move. Once the 4 hour bars start to get close to the trendline, it will attract more sellers into the market creating downwards pressure on price. And like you just said, we're in a downtrend. Why would you even think of trading up? You wouldnt!

Good question man! A lot of people see breaks of trendlines on lower timeframes and think, oh shit! Its time to buy! The trendline broke. But in all reality, on the higher timeframe we still have a good ways to go before pressure starts to sink in.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #727
  • Jan 24, 2008 10:42am Jan 24, 2008 10:42am
Finally I get CAD to cough up some pips... !!!

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=375
  • #728
  • Jan 24, 2008 11:08am Jan 24, 2008 11:08am
Quoting Tiki Trader
Finally I get CAD to cough up some pips... !!!

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...&postcount=375
Nicee man, I missed out on that one. I, just out of luck, got out of my gbp/jpy trades early this morning before it flew on upwards. Small profit, but its a lot better than the loss I would have taken. I think we'll see a larger retracement now, but overall I'm still short. As time goes on, we'll see.

On another note, gold is looking fantastic right now. Check out the weekly chart.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #729
  • Jan 24, 2008 11:14am Jan 24, 2008 11:14am
I would LOVE to see GBP/JPY retrack back to 215 or so... so I might have a chance to jump back in...

Quoting mike w
Nicee man, I missed out on that one. I, just out of luck, got out of my gbp/jpy trades early this morning before it flew on upwards. Small profit, but its a lot better than the loss I would have taken. I think we'll see a larger retracement now, but overall I'm still short. As time goes on, we'll see.

On another note, gold is looking fantastic right now. Check out the weekly chart.
  • #730
  • Jan 24, 2008 11:20am Jan 24, 2008 11:20am
Quoting DaddyWarbuck
mike,

just saw your post on auslanco's thread. nice find on the 1hr pinbar. however, the last 1hr just closed as a pinbar too but in the opposite direction. does that mean price is undecided right now? i don't see why price would break that t/l considering we are in a long term down trend
Hey DWB, that trendline broke now and so I am thinking well be seeing a larger retracement. 212-213 was strong support before and so I have a feeling that would be an absolute top in price for now.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #731
  • Jan 24, 2008 4:49pm Jan 24, 2008 4:49pm
Here's something to think about on the gbp/jpy. If the weekly chart closes anything like this or more so bullish, then I think we should see an upweek next week. Would I buy here, not a chance. Once we get a larger retracement, would I sell back into the downtrend? Most definitely.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: something to think about on the gbpjpy.gif Size: 13 KB
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #732
  • Jan 24, 2008 4:50pm Jan 24, 2008 4:50pm
Quoting mike w
Here's something to think about on the gbp/jpy. If the weekly chart closes anything like this or more so bullish, then I think we should see an upweek next week. Would I buy here, not a chance. Once we get a larger retracement, would I sell back into the downtrend? Most definitely.
I think this next week will prime the markets again for more large moves.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #733
  • Jan 24, 2008 4:54pm Jan 24, 2008 4:54pm
Quoting Tiki Trader
I would LOVE to see GBP/JPY retrack back to 215 or so... so I might have a chance to jump back in...
There is a solid chance that it may Tiki. If we get a bullish weekly close, then next week and the following could be bullish. I am going to sit out until it redirects back south again. I'd rather wait for trades that will give me a better chance for profit rather than going against the trend.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #734
  • Jan 24, 2008 4:56pm Jan 24, 2008 4:56pm
To go along with that weekly chart, here is the daily. The daily shows my reasoning for seeing limited upside. Perhaps even to the 215 area before we see more downwards movement. Any thoughts or comments?
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: daily along with the weekly.gif Size: 12 KB
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #735
  • Jan 24, 2008 5:18pm Jan 24, 2008 5:18pm
Quoting mike w
To go along with that weekly chart, here is the daily. The daily shows my reasoning for seeing limited upside. Perhaps even to the 215 area before we see more downwards movement. Any thoughts or comments?

i think so mike...check out the fib retracement possibilities

PS i missed the ucad moves, the aud moves all the moves...! what happened! lol i have to give u my phone number i think lol
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #736
  • Jan 24, 2008 9:14pm Jan 24, 2008 9:14pm
I think it will make it up there.... there just has to be a rest after so much down... check many JPY pairs tomorrow for weekly PIN BARS.... !!! You can see them already... USD/JPY.... AUD/JPY

I will be looking for my chance to go short again.... !!

Quoting mike w
To go along with that weekly chart, here is the daily. The daily shows my reasoning for seeing limited upside. Perhaps even to the 215 area before we see more downwards movement. Any thoughts or comments?
  • #737
  • Jan 24, 2008 10:02pm Jan 24, 2008 10:02pm
Quoting Tiki Trader
I think it will make it up there.... there just has to be a rest after so much down... check many JPY pairs tomorrow for weekly PIN BARS.... !!! You can see them already... USD/JPY.... AUD/JPY

I will be looking for my chance to go short again.... !!
Agreed. There is always opportunity in the market. Just dont get greedy and buy in a down market!

This is for myself: I will never trade against the trend in an effort to make more money. I will not let greed take over my rationale for taking a trade.

Thats all I need to know. I am a professional trader. I will make a lot of money this year and in the years to come, and countertrend trading is a deterrent to me from my goal. With that, I simply won't allow it to be a part of my trading.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #738
  • Jan 25, 2008 11:59am Jan 25, 2008 11:59am
The outlook for next week may have changed if today closes as a pin. I would look to see a solid retracement off this last move upwards within the first few days, then the weekly chart will take over and we should head north. I would, by no means, buy right now. Instead, based on the daily, I may short back into the longer term trend. This may be the beginning of a larger retracement, however, in which case we would see when it gets to around 210 to 209, and see how price reacts from there.
I dream, therefore I become.
  • #739
  • Jan 25, 2008 12:43pm Jan 25, 2008 12:43pm
Quoting mike w
The outlook for next week may have changed if today closes as a pin. I would look to see a solid retracement off this last move upwards within the first few days, then the weekly chart will take over and we should head north. I would, by no means, buy right now. Instead, based on the daily, I may short back into the longer term trend. This may be the beginning of a larger retracement, however, in which case we would see when it gets to around 210 to 209, and see how price reacts from there.
haha, i just woke up and saw the daily pin and immediately went to this thread to post it....guess i was late. when you say "this may be the beginning of a larger retracement" you are refering to it retracing up from the huge downmove over the last few weeks right? so you're saying that this pinbar might only drop us to the 209-210 area and then it could possibly move up?

i took a screenshot of it...that's a really nice pinbar

EDIT: that dotted line is the 21 ema btw. kinn & jason use it a lot
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpjpydailypinbar.gif Size: 18 KB
  • #740
  • Jan 25, 2008 1:19pm Jan 25, 2008 1:19pm
btw, its trading in a channel right now.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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