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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #10,721
  • Jan 25, 2008 12:49am Jan 25, 2008 12:49am
Quoting bshadroo
look at the nice down channel for eurchf.a sell signal looks good at first sight but
1-the #1 TL is a strong monthly TL
2-there is somthing like divergence in macd is happening
may better to wait for a break up the chanell ,then pull back and then a buy
do u sell if macd signals?
well.. now its breks up the TL and 21 and i will wait for a buy signal sfter some retrace .
  • #10,722
  • Jan 25, 2008 1:15am Jan 25, 2008 1:15am
Thanks everybody for the fast answer!! yes i'll do treegood, i found many other thing on the fxtradeblog! i'm just delighted with all these things.
I don't have enough words to say thanks.
Happy trading everyone, and as someone said: A 2008 full of good Risk Reward Ratio
  • #10,723
  • Jan 25, 2008 1:23am Jan 25, 2008 1:23am
I took a sell on euro. Can't post chart rite now i have to go somewhere. SL on the top. But i'm not really sure about this trade. trade it with small lot. Hope it'll go down.
  • #10,724
  • Edited 6:58am Jan 25, 2008 2:09am | Edited 6:58am
hi,

I took a short on the eur/usd like hijackxx also

1.4754
sl 1.4781 (-30)
tp1 1.4716 (+38) 8ema
tp2 1.4693 (+61) 89sma
60:99

countertrend, top of rising wedge trendline, macd higher high round top

edit: tp1 hit +38 pips, sl set to +/-0


Regards
  • #10,725
  • Jan 25, 2008 2:20am Jan 25, 2008 2:20am
Quoting ashes
hi,

I took a short on the eur/usd like hijackxx also

1.4754
sl 1.4781 (-30)
tp1 1.4716 (+38) 8ema
tp2 1.4693 (+61) 89sma
60:99

countertrend, top of rising wedge trendline, macd higher high round top


Regards
not bad , i sold too, but change my idea and closed it around +5,i think it is a risky trade ,i prefer to long with a TC.(look at the h1 chart ! its going to give a tc signal )
  • #10,726
  • Jan 25, 2008 2:33am Jan 25, 2008 2:33am
a question or suggestion:
many times when the price is at high and macd gives a round top signal for sell,there is usually a retrace to the recent high and then falls .like the current situation for EU. i sold at 1.4770 after the h4 closed around 57.
can we wait for a retrace to recent high when we want to short countertrends and vers.?
  • #10,727
  • Jan 25, 2008 4:14am Jan 25, 2008 4:14am
EurUsd


When price go through 89sma it tends to come back to nearest support which is 8ema(21ema) or 89 itself. Will set TP to about 8ema. MACD aggressive turnaround above 45level. Stoploss is below 30 making R:R worth it.




Short at 1.4759


Stoploss 1.4782

TP 50% after 20pips and remainder at 1.4722
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EurUsd.GIF Size: 46 KB
  • #10,728
  • Jan 25, 2008 5:50am Jan 25, 2008 5:50am
Hello , here is the euro trade i took last night. counter-trend, Round top at 00:00 candle. R:R was good and i did anticipate a move down. since the signal candle was small i took it on. it was 11Pm here so could not watch it live. set TP to 30 pips with one lot only.
Enter 1.4759
SL 1.4790
TP 1.4729 (76 fib of the 1600 candle. )

Price has moved back to 89 according to the rules. lets see where it goes from here.
Nadia
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euro counter.jpg Size: 153 KB
TRADE WHAT YOU SEE... FOCUS ON SUCCESS
  • #10,729
  • Jan 25, 2008 6:02am Jan 25, 2008 6:02am
Quoting bshadroo
a question or suggestion:
many times when the price is at high and macd gives a round top signal for sell,there is usually a retrace to the recent high and then falls .like the current situation for EU. i sold at 1.4770 after the h4 closed around 57.
can we wait for a retrace to recent high when we want to short countertrends and vers.?
hello, i hope i understand your question correctly.

Yes the price does sometime retrace after the signal candle for a counter trend on MACD. price usually goes for stop orders placed in that areas before continuing in the intended direction. waiting to enter at a better price could be risky for a counter trend ( unless you are very aware of the motion of that pair and are anticipating the move.). if u are planning to enter at close of a certain candle then you can split your lot and enter 1 at close of the signal candle and place the second at recent high. Just like fib retrace entry on a trend continuation. But i would suggest that you back test to see if this has happen many times in the past. If it is suggested to be done on a counter trade, i would let phillip answer that one. Take care. and good luck
Nadia.
TRADE WHAT YOU SEE... FOCUS ON SUCCESS
  • #10,730
  • Jan 25, 2008 7:50am Jan 25, 2008 7:50am
Nice trade Nadia..

How I see the EU.

The 4hr is right at the 89, pivot, and the short up-trend line.
The 1hr is in it's own box right now.

This could go either way from here. Gee, I can't go wrong saying it that way can I Indecision on the 4hr I suppose until price decides which way to go on the 89. Don't know why I'm thinking south but we'll see...
Attached Images
  • #10,731
  • Jan 25, 2008 8:19am Jan 25, 2008 8:19am
palmer: thnaks. !!
yes i see the up and down candles on teh 1 hour. Look what it is doing to the 4 hour, Spinner forming, 89 is holding so far,. support on 89 will be nice,. No major news announcements today , as far as i know, so price might just concolidate around this area. Only time will tell. I will wait for a nice set up.
Nadia.

edit: clean chart on purpose to highlight the area being discussed.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euro spinner.jpg Size: 148 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: euro spinner on 1 hour.jpg Size: 130 KB
TRADE WHAT YOU SEE... FOCUS ON SUCCESS
  • #10,732
  • Jan 25, 2008 8:25am Jan 25, 2008 8:25am
Hello

I would be very careful going short (GBPUSD) for the next month.

There is a 100% probability currently that the FED will lower the interest rate by 50 bps in a weeks time after the emergency rate change. The Brits have decided earlier this week not to change their interest rate because of inflationary worries.

I am going to try and take long signals only after each pullback. Possible 70% hit rate?

Please note: This is a reverting to mean trade too and should usually not be attempted.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: GBPUSD.PNG Size: 37 KB
  • #10,733
  • Edited 9:11am Jan 25, 2008 8:50am | Edited 9:11am
Quoting BIL2205
palmer: thnaks. !!
yes i see the up and down candles on teh 1 hour. Look what it is doing to the 4 hour, Spinner forming, 89 is holding so far,. support on 89 will be nice,. No major news announcements today , as far as i know, so price might just concolidate around this area. Only time will tell. I will wait for a nice set up.
Nadia.

edit: clean chart on purpose to highlight the area being discussed.
Hi, Nadia!
Nice trades, you've made today, I took that short too yesterday, and today I took long just closed it with nice profit, so the system works for us nicely.
Regards
Alex
  • #10,734
  • Jan 25, 2008 8:53am Jan 25, 2008 8:53am
Hi to All,

Took a short off the RT from the 89 and T/L on EURGBP this morning. This was my first trade this year, been leaving things alone with all the uncertainty about. Taken Ryan's advice about waiting for TC's only and thought this looked worth a shot. MACD crossing zero from sHs formation.

SL 0.7497
Entry 0.7467
TP 0.7429

I know the 200 is a possible PT as well, but decided to take whole profits as this has been a previous strong S/R level and I'm happy with my 38 pips! I'm also new to the EG so don't know how reliable it is in terms of rhythm, but it looked like it was faithful in the past.

It's also my first success following 5 wrong trades in a row. My finances are fine because I'm VERY strict with MM, but my emotions were not so strong! It's been extremely hard sitting out waiting for the TC's, as I've felt a kind of desperation to get some money back, but patience is key in this game.

It's Burn's Night here in Scotland so I'll be celebrating my wee success with a bit o' haggis and a wee(ish) dram!

Have a great weekend, take care,
Rebecca,x.
Attached Image
May all your pips grow into great big fruitful trees
  • #10,735
  • Jan 25, 2008 8:54am Jan 25, 2008 8:54am
Hi all,

The Euro appears to be finding support at yesterdays breakout level.
The current 4hr candle is forming a spinning top also.
I believe we could be in line for a morning star type thingy to signal an upthrust soon.

Whats the general consensus? any thoughts?

Regards,

Ed.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 4hr support.gif Size: 13 KB
  • #10,736
  • Jan 25, 2008 9:01am Jan 25, 2008 9:01am
Important juncture on the GBP/USD. At 200SMA and top of trend line... Over bought on the MACD. Possible TC break out, or CT back to the 8ema...
Attached Image
  • #10,737
  • Jan 25, 2008 9:04am Jan 25, 2008 9:04am
Quoting Ted1983
Hi all,

The Euro appears to be finding support at yesterdays breakout level.
The current 4hr candle is forming a spinning top also.
I believe we could be in line for a morning star type thingy to signal an upthrust soon.

Whats the general consensus? any thoughts?

Regards,

Ed.
yes and its now above the 89 again after 35 h4 candles
hope next week(but not at opening hours) we have a buy signal there.the target can be 1.49's .lets see
  • #10,738
  • Jan 25, 2008 9:15am Jan 25, 2008 9:15am
Also I think a reasonable sell signal may be in the offing on the pound.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbp.gif Size: 16 KB
  • #10,739
  • Jan 25, 2008 9:24am Jan 25, 2008 9:24am
Quoting Ted1983
Also I think a reasonable sell signal may be in the offing on the pound.
After a week out, i've just picked up this chart - looking like a good set up. Waiting for confirmation on the 1H
  • #10,740
  • Jan 25, 2008 9:29am Jan 25, 2008 9:29am
Quoting welshguy2000
After a week out, i've just picked up this chart - looking like a good set up. Waiting for confirmation on the 1H
Well Ive jumped the gun and gone in, hoping to profit from the profit takers. I think the risk is acceptable if we can get to break even soon.
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