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Indicator Free Trading - Skunny

  • #2,641
  • Jan 24, 2008 3:02pm Jan 24, 2008 3:02pm
These are WILD times indeed! Stock markets and Uncle Ben are turning these markets into carnival games, albeit ones that are possible to win at...if your not stuck on the sidelines watching hundreds of pipportunities fly by like me these past couple days...keep missing entries by like 4 pips.

Looks like we have a couple targets close by. The aqua fib seems to have handed us a "secret message", but promptly changed its mind with all of the recent events.

So I've got my eye on the long side aqua fib 138% and also the yellow one seems valid...not sure how I feel about that purple 138% getting torn through...but these are crazy times. Any comments from our esteemed chartists?
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  • #2,642
  • Edited 3:14pm Jan 24, 2008 3:03pm | Edited 3:14pm
Quoting GridTrader
@Skunny: I know you're busy, but... It seems there were quite a few people here that took this GJ trade that happened to fail going short (see chart). The only things I could see in this chart was that the weekly target had already been reached, price breached the weekly low and traded below it again, and that this was a smaller trade within a larger range.

You said before that if a trade failed, "please post the chart so someone could look at it". Could you please give us some guidance, or a possible reason as to why this one didn't work out like several here had expected?

Much appreciated!
GT (Jon)

@Pipo: Curious if you were fibbing this chart too? If so, could you kindly share with us how you walked your fibs during the process?

Thanks!
Hey Jon,

I can't keep my blow hole shut... but this is a no entry for me
Simply because it wasn't a valid Completed swing IMO. Also look at it on a 4HR TF

I thik this would fall under waiting and watching price for me. Hopefully that isn't just hot air to you if so ..sry I wil go throw myself in the snow

Sizz.

edit also I just looked at it and i was in the middle of another fib as well so I would have looked at that as a retrace
  • #2,643
  • Edited 3:20pm Jan 24, 2008 3:18pm | Edited 3:20pm
Quoting sizzler
Islander,

Wh wh what? are these Islander fib trading? DZ? nice work you have made fibs your own.

I take umbrage to "we can never be certain" ye Skurvy dog! Hopefully my testing will prove it out. I haven;t had any blow ups so far. I am starting to taste SCotch...hehehe


Sizz
Well shiver me timbers me hearty - if you've read me posts you'll know how this captain's a working the fibs and how he's applied what them clever lads Skunny and Bo have been a telling us. Nooow if yous not a been taking note then we'll have to clap you in irons and put you on bread nd water for a few days to sharpen yr concentration.

This old sea dog has seen many a change in the weather as the neptune of forex starts to blow from a different direction and he likes to put a few dubloons into his treasure chest afore they gets snatched away....mm that T1 he put up has been hit ...yo ho ho, more treasure...nd a bootle of rum
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #2,644
  • Jan 24, 2008 3:25pm Jan 24, 2008 3:25pm
Quoting GridTrader
@Skunny: I know you're busy, but... It seems there were quite a few people here that took this GJ trade that happened to fail going short (see chart). The only things I could see in this chart was that the weekly target had already been reached, price breached the weekly low and traded below it again, and that this was a smaller trade within a larger range.

You said before that if a trade failed, "please post the chart so someone could look at it". Could you please give us some guidance, or a possible reason as to why this one didn't work out like several here had expected?

Much appreciated!
GT (Jon)

@Pipo: Curious if you were fibbing this chart too? If so, could you kindly share with us how you walked your fibs during the process?

Thanks!
Hi GT,
Looking at your chart, I can't help wondering how you got your Fib there in the first place. I tend to see the bigger moves better, so this probably doesn't help - but this is my GJ chart.
I don't like GJ that much as it always seems to overshoot, in the case of my last Fib by 20 pips - though it was a on long bar which Skunny says we should be careful of. The trouble with GJ is that there are so many long bars > 150 pips.
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  • #2,645
  • Jan 24, 2008 3:49pm Jan 24, 2008 3:49pm
this i have...
but tks


Best Regards,
Marcelo Marques
  • #2,646
  • Jan 24, 2008 3:50pm Jan 24, 2008 3:50pm
Quoting GridTrader
@Skunny: I know you're busy, but... It seems there were quite a few people here that took this GJ trade that happened to fail going short (see chart). The only things I could see in this chart was that the weekly target had already been reached, price breached the weekly low and traded below it again, and that this was a smaller trade within a larger range.

You said before that if a trade failed, "please post the chart so someone could look at it". Could you please give us some guidance, or a possible reason as to why this one didn't work out like several here had expected?

Much appreciated!
GT (Jon)

@Pipo: Curious if you were fibbing this chart too? If so, could you kindly share with us how you walked your fibs during the process?

Thanks!
See attached chart for the set up I had in place for whichever way the trade developed. It looked to me as if it was going long based on previous hint.

P.S. I know this stuff can be confusing, but the longer you watch the fibs and realize there are other motives around (weekly and daily targets) the more you play out the moves in your head. You come up with scenarios and when one of those begins to play out its like a road map telling you where to trade. I try not to trade until then.
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  • #2,647
  • Jan 24, 2008 3:58pm Jan 24, 2008 3:58pm
Hi everybody,:
I was quite happy this morning when looking at my H1 GJ chart!
Taking over the fib walking where Skunny had left it I arrived at this turning back up point (sorry for the mess but as a nice little monkey I also tried to reproduce Master Skunny’s gann lines, you can even see part the beige box on the upper end ).
The first picture shows how I was figuring out the next moves at the time where it was drawn (bottom left of the first blue segment shows the time), well the picture was taken a little after when thing started to go wrong and it was obvious that price was not going to fulfil what I thought he had told me he was committed to. The target (upper end of the second blue segment) was looking as a high probability target with a cluster confluence of 2 TP1, 2TP2 and at that time there was at least one more TP1.
But things going wrong and so disheartened by this new failure I started to try and figure out other ways to fib it. Well, I eventually left it like that and started fresh on a new chart with an alternative fibbing but still, I had one TP1 in the same zone. So on chart 2 you can see an alternative scenario, same thing, the time of the drawing is the left end of the 1st blue segment(actually one candle bellow it, but I only took the picture when I realized that it was eventually going the right way!). In this one I only expected the price to go at the bottom ends of blue seg1&2(blue and green TP), but it went further as if telling us (by that nice down spike piercing both gold and khaki bottom lines): “Hey guys I just have to finish something upstairs and I’ll come back and go down to the basement to resume my business” Well at the time of the picture I was still not believing it would go that far up… But look at what we got this morning!
And I don’t expect it to go too far higher. Not that price gives me a clue on that one but I guess Skunny has put this beige box for a reason. I can’t figure out how he picked this one, though. Can you?
Well, all this is good for my spirit, not that I feel I have it all figured out and I was probably right for wrong reasons (that would not be the first time!). But it confirms me that there is really something here and it might be achievable even for a poor woodpecker’s brain like mine.
Schmurex
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  • #2,648
  • Jan 24, 2008 4:09pm Jan 24, 2008 4:09pm
As a side note on my previous post, even if I had enough confidence in my fib skills, I could't afford such a draw down 500pips to earn 80 pips... or maybe hedging as Skunny has explained once, but in this case I consider it a minitrend against the main trend so very risky, and I would have to be really really confident in my fibs, but what if...? Human error is always possible, better take a small loss. I do't trade so far, just learning.
Schmurex
  • #2,649
  • Jan 24, 2008 4:13pm Jan 24, 2008 4:13pm
I just realized I was wrong about everything. I went through some old pm's today and some guy was suggesting I don't know anything. I missed this pm from a month ago- from back when I started this thread. I felt it important to let you guys know this before you go any further.


Sorry for the interruption........and the disappointment.
Robonacci com
  • #2,650
  • Jan 24, 2008 4:16pm Jan 24, 2008 4:16pm
Quoting Skunny
I just realized I was wrong about everything. I went through some old pm's today and some guy was suggesting I don't know anything. I missed this pm from a month ago- from back when I started this thread. I felt it important to let you guys know this before you go any further.


Sorry for the interruption........and the disappointment.

I thought so.... ROFL!!!!!!!
  • #2,651
  • Jan 24, 2008 4:17pm Jan 24, 2008 4:17pm
After posting I realized that I was the last one of at least 3 people to tell the same thing. As an excuse, these were posted while I was typing.I 'll stop here cluttering the thread.
Schmurex
  • #2,652
  • Edited 4:22pm Jan 24, 2008 4:18pm | Edited 4:22pm
Quoting sizzler
Hey Jon,

I can't keep my blow hole shut... but this is a no entry for me
Simply because it wasn't a valid Completed swing IMO. Also look at it on a 4HR TF...

...edit also I just looked at it and i was in the middle of another fib as well so I would have looked at that as a retrace
Sizz what would you consider a valid completed swing. Only drawing (walking) off one that previously hit it's target?

Quoting ianf0ster
Hi GT,
Looking at your chart, I can't help wondering how you got your Fib there in the first place...
It was simply a trade within a larger trade set up. As I mentioned before, there was a larger swing range in place, but the smaller ones within work well too. Just not this time.

Quoting PiPr Pro
See attached chart for the set up I had in place for whichever way the trade developed. It looked to me as if it was going long based on previous hint.

P.S. I know this stuff can be confusing, but the longer you watch the fibs and realize there are other motives around (weekly and daily targets) the more you play out the moves in your head. You come up with scenarios and when one of those begins to play out its like a road map telling you where to trade. I try not to trade until then.
Hmmm. Okay. I think I can make sense of this. I'm not the only one here who seen this a valid trade, so I am sure others here will benefit from the comments. P.S. Thanks for the notes on the chart!! Really helps when saving pics to recap on at a later date.
The market is like the matrix - it is you that must learn to bend
  • #2,653
  • Jan 24, 2008 4:20pm Jan 24, 2008 4:20pm
Quoting schmurex
After posting I realized that I was the last one of at least 3 people to tell the same thing. As an excuse, these were posted while I was typing.I 'll stop here cluttering the thread.
Schmurex
Clutter away......contribute when you can, thats why we are here.
Robonacci com
  • #2,654
  • Jan 24, 2008 4:28pm Jan 24, 2008 4:28pm
This has become an awesome brain exercise thread. I really enjoy reading everyones analysis. (even when it's not correct) Thanks it's a lot of fun!
Robonacci com
  • #2,655
  • Jan 24, 2008 4:34pm Jan 24, 2008 4:34pm
Quoting Skunny
You can use it for any reason you see fit but on a weekly the 62 retracement is an area not an exact number it may cause disruption in a 500 pip range or better. There isn't anyway to trade the information IMO. If you have figured out how it is valuable please let me know. I'm always willing to learn.

You should also know that the price isn't following the fibs inner s/r areas before you try to trade it somehow(from the way you have it drawn). This would be the case on any time frame.

Hi master.... was just curious if there was something to this..... this super duper master monthly fib..... seems like it acted as support for price? if so, maybe it is useful..... (ps there is a specific reason i drew the fib this way, based on my readings)..... was curious if this was a fluke or something to be well researched by myself and this thread.... as always thank u and look forward to your reply
(this is gj monthlyand was hit to the pip more or less or so it seems)




PS here is the chart again
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  • #2,656
  • Jan 24, 2008 4:35pm Jan 24, 2008 4:35pm
Quoting Skunny
I just realized I was wrong about everything. I went through some old pm's today and some guy was suggesting I don't know anything. I missed this pm from a month ago- from back when I started this thread. I felt it important to let you guys know this before you go any further.


Sorry for the interruption........and the disappointment.
Apology accepted. Now can you please tell us more of your wrong stuff and what you know nothing about?
  • #2,657
  • Jan 24, 2008 4:37pm Jan 24, 2008 4:37pm
target attained
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  • #2,658
  • Jan 24, 2008 4:39pm Jan 24, 2008 4:39pm
Quoting Islander
Well shiver me timbers me hearty - if you've read me posts you'll know how this captain's a working the fibs and how he's applied what them clever lads Skunny and Bo have been a telling us. Nooow if yous not a been taking note then we'll have to clap you in irons and put you on bread nd water for a few days to sharpen yr concentration.

This old sea dog has seen many a change in the weather as the neptune of forex starts to blow from a different direction and he likes to put a few dubloons into his treasure chest afore they gets snatched away....mm that T1 he put up has been hit ...yo ho ho, more treasure...nd a bootle of rum
HEHEHEHE Well Bless me Barnacles!!! by Great Neptunes trident! ye have changed ye old Fib tool!!! and spun me around worse then the kraken's whirpool tub! I watch yer posts like me last bottle of grog with me one good eye and me had no clue! Arrgh.

chartgut and Scurvy must be dullin me blade!! I fear it is Davy jones locker for this Scallywag before too long if me don't get a good night of winks! or I will settle for lusty wenches, a monkey playing an accordion and barrels of rum! Narr!!!

Sizzlebeard
  • #2,659
  • Jan 24, 2008 4:40pm Jan 24, 2008 4:40pm
Quoting Skunny
I really enjoy reading everyones analysis. (even when it's not correct)
Thanks for rubbing it in...............
trading naked.......
  • #2,660
  • Jan 24, 2008 4:41pm Jan 24, 2008 4:41pm
Hi all

Here is my take on fibs and trades from today.

There are a few missing, I can add, but it would get very cluttered.

All fibs are drawn from the bottom of the 'V' of a reversal back up (or down) the first swing to produce support or resistance for the price to encounter.

All of the smaller fibs are completed with the exception of the largest (black)

I can post the template with fibs if anyone would like a closer look.

Keep plugging away

Frank
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