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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #10,681
  • Jan 24, 2008 3:07am Jan 24, 2008 3:07am
Quoting ammar2000a70
Still am waiting for any response

OK, you asked Phillip, so nobody wanted to answer for him. Please, don't forget Phillip has day job, family and other things to do.
As for your question, and if you don't mind my answering, you are absolutely right, when 4 hour shows TC go to the 1 hour and wait here for TC too for early entry, as move can be too fast to enter after 4 hour candle close. Then when the rules of the 4 hour MACD Strategy will be in your "blood" , you'll anticipate certain price moves and then you'll take other signals on 1 hour like RT and others. But, be very careful, there is too much temptation on the one hour, I still very rarely trade from 1 hour, as I had too many losses there. It's all the matter of personal preferences.
To sum it up, learn 4 hour first, after success there start to look at 1 hour TC and only after success there look at more advanced entries on the 1 hour.
  • #10,682
  • Jan 24, 2008 3:10am Jan 24, 2008 3:10am
Quoting JimDandy
Looks like gbpusd trying to establish rythym...but too soon to tell.....in 30 minutes this candle could look very different when it closes.....also where do you put your stop? Where is the upper resistance? the 89? thats a 100 pips away. even above last candle is 60 pips......will wait on better looking tc....might enter early on 1hr but Moving averages on 1hr chart are a tangled mess.....watching and waiting........pipip........Jimdandy

important note: This candle closes at the open of the London markets.....be careful
09h05 GMT.
Hi, if you let me share my point of view, I am waiting for new pull back to MA89. Yesterday I got 60pips from 1.9610. I would like to reset shorts around 1.9600 area if possible. SL around 1.9630, just 20pips above MA89.... but, on dailies I see next key resistance until 1.9650 area, a move back to this area is possible, also daily R1. right now, bearish TC is not evident right now, in my opinion.
  • #10,683
  • Jan 24, 2008 3:16am Jan 24, 2008 3:16am
Quoting ammar2000a70
Still am waiting for any response

Here is the 4hr tc being formed and the 1hr chart in agreement....however notice that even on 1hr timeframe would need a large stoploss....but otherwise this would be a good example.....will wait for better entry point...maybe it will retrace back up a little this hour and still close with tc on the 1hr.....we'll see.....pipip........Jimdandy

good it did retrace some and can use a 40 pip stop...adjust your positon size so that a 40 pip loss would only be 2% of your account.....for instance if you have a 1000 dollar account you would risk 20 dollars....if you set stop for a 40 pip loss then you would enter with a .50 minilot.... roughly 50cents a pip......where to take profit? Next area of support on 4hr chart looks like about 1.0840ish but i would take partial profits earlier and move rest to break even..this is still a volatile market.....anything can happen here...
  • #10,684
  • Edited 3:19am Jan 24, 2008 3:18am | Edited 3:19am
Quoting hijackxx
Technically:
I've drawn my TL on the EU pair and I think I found the rhythm. I'm looking for more short on EU today after the candle closes in a few hours and yes, MACD signal is required before the entry. As long as the candle stays under the TL, I think we're safe to go short from that point.

Fundamentally:
Since FF's calendar is also giving us bad EUR news forecasts and some good news forecasts for the US, they give more confidence for me to take the shorts.
Until then, good luck.

Look at the MA's they are close and interlaced - very dangerous to take the trade. Just my 2 cents, I stay out.
  • #10,685
  • Jan 24, 2008 3:29am Jan 24, 2008 3:29am
Quoting ira
Look at the MA's they are close and interlaced - very dangerous to take the trade. Just my 2 cents, I stay out.
You've got a point there. I didn't notice the MA's because I was busy with the TL. Thank's in advance, Ira. I'll be very careful.
  • #10,686
  • Jan 24, 2008 3:32am Jan 24, 2008 3:32am
Quoting JimDandy
Looks like gbpusd trying to establish rythym...but too soon to tell.....in 30 minutes this candle could look very different when it closes.....also where do you put your stop? Where is the upper resistance? the 89? thats a 100 pips away. even above last candle is 60 pips......will wait on better looking tc....might enter early on 1hr but Moving averages on 1hr chart are a tangled mess.....watching and waiting........pipip........Jimdandy

important note: This candle closes at the open of the London markets.....be careful
Very different picture after London opened......Arodriguez may get that chance to go short from the 89 he is wanting........pipip.....Jimdandy
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd.gif Size: 18 KB
  • #10,687
  • Edited 4:05am Jan 24, 2008 3:52am | Edited 4:05am
Look at this chart...not the macd....the chart.....remember the Macd is only the trigger you look for ..AFTER the chart shows rythym.........Look at the Moving Averages in this chart.......for the last 10 candles at least....thats 40 hours....the Moving averages have no trend.....they are horizontal lines.....no trend.....no rythym.....no rythym........no trade.......the 8,21,89,200,and 365 are all flat.....if you think you have "found" the rythym by looking at this chart....then take a walk and clear you mind.....any trade at this point is a guess.....Im going to bed before i start seeing things........nite all.........pipip.......Jimdandy.

p.s. ECB under pressure to lower interest rates at any time......be careful here..........
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd.gif Size: 16 KB
  • #10,688
  • Jan 24, 2008 4:28am Jan 24, 2008 4:28am
Quoting JimDandy
Here is the 4hr tc being formed and the 1hr chart in agreement....however notice that even on 1hr timeframe would need a large stoploss....but otherwise this would be a good example.....will wait for better entry point...maybe it will retrace back up a little this hour and still close with tc on the 1hr.....we'll see.....pipip........Jimdandy
p.s. will be a busy day on the European Markets trying to sort out the U.S. Market yo-yo up and down Dow....
Thanks alot.thats what am used and my Q was about using the RT-RB on 1H to support 4 H TC as I see some guys use it .. thanks again.


Quoting ira
OK, you asked Phillip, so nobody wanted to answer for him. Please, don't forget Phillip has day job, family and other things to do.
As for your question, and if you don't mind my answering, you are absolutely right, when 4 hour shows TC go to the 1 hour and wait here for TC too for early entry, as move can be too fast to enter after 4 hour candle close. Then when the rules of the 4 hour MACD Strategy will be in your "blood" , you'll anticipate certain price moves and then you'll take other signals on 1 hour like RT and others. But, be very careful, there is too much temptation on the one hour, I still very rarely trade from 1 hour, as I had too many losses there. It's all the matter of personal preferences.
To sum it up, learn 4 hour first, after success there start to look at 1 hour TC and only after success there look at more advanced entries on the 1 hour.
many thx and have anice trade

ammar
  • #10,689
  • Jan 24, 2008 4:31am Jan 24, 2008 4:31am
Quoting hijackxx

Fundamentally:
Since FF's calendar is also giving us bad EUR news forecasts and some good news forecasts for the US, they give more confidence for me to take the shorts.
Until then, good luck.
hi hijackxx,

why do you think we have good forecasts for us news?
-unemploymentclaims are expected to be higher,
-existings homesales are expected to be lower
to me that would be bad us news

an interesting thing could be the crude oil invertories, if that comes out
as high as last week, then it could give the usd another value push ....

Regards
  • #10,690
  • Jan 24, 2008 4:59am Jan 24, 2008 4:59am
Quoting ashes
hi hijackxx,

why do you think we have good forecasts for us news?
-unemploymentclaims are expected to be higher,
-existings homesales are expected to be lower
to me that would be bad us news

an interesting thing could be the crude oil invertories, if that comes out
as high as last week, then it could give the usd another value push ....

Regards
take back my words.. the EUR came up with good news.. the macd signal to sell is out. forming a TC condition. Haven't taken anything yet
  • #10,691
  • Jan 24, 2008 5:19am Jan 24, 2008 5:19am
Broke the support, breakout, Macd shows blue both on 4HR and 1HR which means a very good chance for price to go up.
Decided to buy EURO.

Oh btw, since my girlfriend hated forex so bad, she decided to create a demo account, and she is up 25 on Euro before me.

She asked for pizza if the price would go up..
I have to treat her now..

Here is the 4HR chart:
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: euro taken.jpg Size: 249 KB
  • #10,692
  • Jan 24, 2008 6:12am Jan 24, 2008 6:12am
Hi,

I'm confused. all usd pairs show a weakening us-dollar.
eur/usd going up, gbp/usd going up, usd/chf going down etc, etc.

The only one that doesn't go down is the trade I'm currently short in.
usd/jpy. that one moves up and up and my trade is at -37 after having
been at +30 before. usd/jpy didn't break the 106.00 that's why my tp1
did not get triggered ....

Could somebody please explain why usd/jpy is getting stronger
while all the other usd pairs show weakness of the dollar?

Thank you

Regards
  • #10,693
  • Jan 24, 2008 6:30am Jan 24, 2008 6:30am
Quoting hijackxx
Broke the support, breakout, Macd shows blue both on 4HR and 1HR which means a very good chance for price to go up.
Decided to buy EURO.

Oh btw, since my girlfriend hated forex so bad, she decided to create a demo account, and she is up 25 on Euro before me.

She asked for pizza if the price would go up..
I have to treat her now..

Here is the 4HR chart:
Ha Ha ha ha!

once I had arguement with my girlfriend about a share called CSL i thought it would fall she said it would rise we had a big debate. long story short next day it went up $2.60 boy did i have a red face. BTW she had 2 month experience versus my 1.9 years at that time! off topic I know but our post brought back the memory!
  • #10,694
  • Jan 24, 2008 6:38am Jan 24, 2008 6:38am
Quoting ashes
Hi,

I'm confused. all usd pairs show a weakening us-dollar.
eur/usd going up, gbp/usd going up, usd/chf going down etc, etc.

The only one that doesn't go down is the trade I'm currently short in.
usd/jpy. that one moves up and up and my trade is at -37 after having
been at +30 before. usd/jpy didn't break the 106.00 that's why my tp1
did not get triggered ....

Could somebody please explain why usd/jpy is getting stronger
while all the other usd pairs show weakness of the dollar?

Thank you

Regards
The Yen will not always follow the other pairs.
The Yen tend to be correlated with the equity market, particularly during so volatile periods, lots of investors borrowed yen for 0.5% and invested the money of foreign assets until the expected market correction kicked off. In the last few weeks we have seen investors and traders in panic and the market going for a sell off, carry trade unwinding, risk limiting, assets being exchanged back to Yen. Then the Fed slashed the interest rate, which created whiplash all around in the last few days and gave to the financial guys more "virtual" dollars to borrow for less expensive cost. So, in my opinion the rise of the yen has been temporary slowed down by the investors' cheap dollar appetite. Today the market seems to be quite stable, I would say this is just the calm after the storm.

Just watch out as the hurricanes season is not over!
my 2 cents
  • #10,695
  • Jan 24, 2008 6:43am Jan 24, 2008 6:43am
Quoting hijackxx
Broke the support, breakout, Macd shows blue both on 4HR and 1HR which means a very good chance for price to go up.
Decided to buy EURO.

Oh btw, since my girlfriend hated forex so bad, she decided to create a demo account, and she is up 25 on Euro before me.

She asked for pizza if the price would go up..
I have to treat her now..

Here is the 4HR chart:
very good trade actually. congratulations!
i'd take partial profit around 4680 (previous high) and see if it can break past the 89sma on 4h with the remainder.
  • #10,696
  • Jan 24, 2008 7:37am Jan 24, 2008 7:37am
Thanks Phillip fo your priceless contribution. All the elements were in my had and this strategy pulled everything in one single system. Not to mention that my profitability has jumped from 50-100 pips a month to several hundred. Thank you again.
.
  • #10,697
  • Jan 24, 2008 7:54am Jan 24, 2008 7:54am
Thanks Jim...and Ryanmcd for 'fueling the idea fire'...

I was looking at the EU last night, thinking that the 21 was not going to hold price because it came back down through it before so I was looking for a short entry. Then, thought about my previous post and the current volatility and thought otherwise. Nowwww, price may be acting like it should according to the method and acting as support "price breaks through the 21, comes back down to it, an returns in the original direction...". Getting close to teh 89 right now as well. So, I'm still just watching things right now.

The Fed officially meets next week so expect some more volatility...trade carefully.

Congrats to those that traded the breakout!!
Attached Image
  • #10,698
  • Jan 24, 2008 9:16am Jan 24, 2008 9:16am
Quoting bullrock
Thanks Phillip fo your priceless contribution. All the elements were in my had and this strategy pulled everything in one single system. Not to mention that my profitability has jumped from 50-100 pips a month to several hundred. Thank you again.

As long as you benifit I amhappy. If you have been trading for some time you will enjoy this system/strategy. Many pips to you in the future
  • #10,699
  • Jan 24, 2008 9:27am Jan 24, 2008 9:27am
Woke up this morning to see a gap up at 10:20 gmt on my chart....upon closer investigation i see the eurusd datafeed stopped at about 10:20 and started back at 11:13 gmt.....leaving a 30 pip gap.....eurusd is the only chart like this.......usdchf, gbpusd, and usdjpy are all fine so i know my data stream did not stop.......just on the eurusd........this is IBFX chart did anyone else experience this ? Here is the 1 minute chart gap.....weird.....pipip.....Jimdandy
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd.gif Size: 13 KB
  • #10,700
  • Jan 24, 2008 9:34am Jan 24, 2008 9:34am
Jim:

I don't see it...this GMT time stuff will always and forever have me confused...

Either way that looks like it was around the London open, price did go on a tear up on the 1min, that might have something to do with it...
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