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  • #1,741
  • Jan 23, 2008 7:38pm Jan 23, 2008 7:38pm
Quoting maxster
So your bias is long because yesterday price trended up. And if the price broke the short fib you would also go short.

I assume these are high proability trades compared to the scalps.

Do you stop orders for entry?

You also have the daily Trend set, and range (retracement) set so you would basically use those fib levels as potential S/R - and if one of those were close to the current intraday long you would proably also like to see price break the higher time frame fib as well before entry.

Am I understanding this correctly?
Until price falls out below 1.9450, yes my bias is long but the market is slow to come around here..tonight will help determine if it can stay long by continued support holding. I wont start pulling my Retracment fib unless support holds through tomorrow.
The Daily fibs give me my direction in the market(Uptrend,Downtrend and Retracement fibs are all Daily fibs sets. I trade the Daily fibs with the Intraday and Swing fib on the 1 hour timframe. Mainly so I can get in and out of the market without suffereing from the drawdown as opposed to trading off the Daily chart and waiting out all the up and down in the market, both ways can be traded this way. Basically trading the Intraday as price moves between the Daily fib levels.
I use Stop and Limit orders it depends on which side of price I am from where I want to enter.
  • #1,742
  • Jan 23, 2008 7:47pm Jan 23, 2008 7:47pm
Bo,

Is my analysis correct for the upcoming day --

I have redrawn the intraday fib. I have added the retracement fib which for now is basically yesterday's intraday fib.

Price is currently within the intraday zone but because it is asian session it is prone to false breakouts. However if price breaks the current intraday long fib go long and the first target would be the red line which is Ext fib T1 of the last up move on the chart. If price blast through that price level the retracement high will mostly likely get tested.

There is a long bias because price is still above the retracement long fib. If price manages to go through the current intraday short fib - what would be going through your mind or thought process?
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  • #1,743
  • Jan 23, 2008 8:08pm Jan 23, 2008 8:08pm
Quoting maxster
Bo,

Is my analysis correct for the upcoming day --

I have redrawn the intraday fib. I have added the retracement fib which for now is basically yesterday's intraday fib.

Price is currently within the intraday zone but because it is asian session it is prone to false breakouts. However if price breaks the current intraday long fib go long and the first target would be the red line which is Ext fib T1 of the last up move on the chart. If price blast through that price level the retracement high will mostly likely get tested.

There is a long bias because price is still above the retracement long fib. If price manages to go through the current intraday short fib - what would be going through your mind or thought process?
Yes, but I dont have the Retracment pulled on mine yet i want it to prove to me price can be maintained first through the London session today.I still have my Intraday on tuesdays movement and my swing roving around on the swings since then.
Thats why you see me posting that if price can be maintained above 1.9450 (Short fib) of your Retracement the possibily is still present for price to continue up.A break there and the momentum is shifted to Short.
Price can still be considerd long until all 3 fib levels fail as support and a Daily close is below them.
And yes when things are still Iffy, look at previous resistance areas as well as the fib levels ahead of price.
  • #1,744
  • Jan 23, 2008 8:35pm Jan 23, 2008 8:35pm
Current move to watch, unless we get a smaller movement here during Asian session leading into London later. 1st chart is the simple version, 2nd chart is with Tuesdays movement measured which is still valid until its levels or Low is broken.
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  • #1,745
  • Jan 23, 2008 9:53pm Jan 23, 2008 9:53pm
Quoting Bobokus
Current move to watch, unless we get a smaller movement here during Asian session leading into London later. 1st chart is the simple version, 2nd chart is with Tuesdays movement measured which is still valid until its levels or Low is broken.
Bo,

Price appears to be heading lower but there are lots of support fibs to go through.

Even though price is below the intraday short fib am I seeing this correctly that price needs to break yesterday's low (current swing low) or even 9450 to enter a short trade?

I am trying to understand your method by anticipating upcoming trades and the thought process. The long side is pretty clear as the current swing high is right at the intraday long fib - so a break would mean long entry.

But the downside I am unclear - because if one takes a short on the intraday break it is a risky trade - so I would pass the trade. So the question is what conditions would you need to see to take a short trade?

Thanks again for your time.
  • #1,746
  • Jan 23, 2008 10:37pm Jan 23, 2008 10:37pm
Hey Bo,

I have to say you are one smart trader!!!!

"I still have my Intraday on tuesdays movement and my swing roving around on the swings since then".

This simple sentence in your post helped me to follow better. I still have alot more to go, but I think you really have something here.

Thanks for sharing in simple terms and keep posting. I read them everyday.

AZ
I found the guy who keeps losing me money. Its "ME" SHOOT HIM!
  • #1,747
  • Jan 23, 2008 11:04pm Jan 23, 2008 11:04pm
Quoting maxster
Bo,

Price appears to be heading lower but there are lots of support fibs to go through.

Even though price is below the intraday short fib am I seeing this correctly that price needs to break yesterday's low (current swing low) or even 9450 to enter a short trade?

I am trying to understand your method by anticipating upcoming trades and the thought process. The long side is pretty clear as the current swing high is right at the intraday long fib - so a break would mean long entry.

But the downside I am unclear - because if one takes a short on the intraday break it is a risky trade - so I would pass the trade. So the question is what conditions would you need to see to take a short trade?

Thanks again for your time.
Use the high and low of Tuesday as your Intraday, price is up to this point still honoring that fib, also dont count the candle wicks as breaks of a level.The reason to keep that fib on tuesday is price can bounce from any point down to 1.9450 so yes a short where your talking about is risky unless you follow it closely as it approaches the Fib levels from the high and low of tuesday, basically treat it as a scalp. To take a short on the break of 1.9450 I would have to wait and see the price action at the time.
  • #1,748
  • Jan 23, 2008 11:10pm Jan 23, 2008 11:10pm
Quoting AZ-Heat
Hey Bo,

I have to say you are one smart trader!!!!

"I still have my Intraday on tuesdays movement and my swing roving around on the swings since then".

This simple sentence in your post helped me to follow better. I still have alot more to go, but I think you really have something here.

Thanks for sharing in simple terms and keep posting. I read them everyday.

AZ
Im trying to keep it simple, and I'm glad its helping you.
  • #1,749
  • Jan 24, 2008 4:28am Jan 24, 2008 4:28am
After all this excitement I broke even over 2 trades. I'm happy!
"Support and Resistance either holds or it doesn't." -Anonymous hillbilly
  • #1,750
  • Jan 24, 2008 5:50am Jan 24, 2008 5:50am
...looking more interesting now, for hrly longs....5min just delivered a 138.2 target (long) from earlier. Waiting to see if the hrly can close simultaneously above Bo's "Up Trend Long" and "Retracement Long"...
  • #1,751
  • Jan 24, 2008 6:01am Jan 24, 2008 6:01am
I'm long from just above 9600 and sitting at break even.

Make that +5
"Support and Resistance either holds or it doesn't." -Anonymous hillbilly
  • #1,752
  • Edited 6:56am Jan 24, 2008 6:07am | Edited 6:56am
Hrly close supporting long bias above the key levels, will wait now for the next 5min retracement and favourable PA for entry.

Edit: The 17th-22nd Jan leg down worries me for longer term longs....is it still in play (short side)? T1 target around 1.9160 yet to be filled, but then the long side has been broken too...i'm in doubt so i'll avoid intraday trades until one side of the cycle completes. Will ride the mini-waves in between for a while (15 & 5 TFs).

Edit:...forgot the basics temporarily, the higher low on the hrly frame (made yesterday)...a big CLUE.
  • #1,753
  • Edited 7:33am Jan 24, 2008 6:08am | Edited 7:33am
If it retraces much below 9612 I'm out.
I never thought I'd be one of those traders that speaks in terms of odd in between numbers very close to equaling a small gain (scalp talker).

And now I'm seeing that magic number that was talking to me earlier, +30 ship jumper's insurance benefit.

It's been going along a very respectful sharp up trend line for 30 pips, now it's ...falling. +25....

This will either be the new support or the death of the trade for me.

Very nice italics font looking "W" on M1 right now...Anytime the alphabet shows up on the charts I get excited.

Hold on, that W is starting to grow a Mullet.

It's now taken 3 stabs at going higher, and taken half an hour to do so. I've chosen a new support to give me +19 for my troubles if it can't do it soon like.

5th time's a charm. It went higher and now my +19 is for a valid reason, it's the current support level for me.

I see what's happening. It's trying to battle yesterday's high. "Zoom out every once in a while to get the bigger picture" says Bo on my left shoulder.

Just got my +19.

It was time to choose a top anyway, an hour and 10mins is time enough.
If it goes back up after this, no matter. It hit a 382 target and started going down close to 9600 again so I consider it random at this point.
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"Support and Resistance either holds or it doesn't." -Anonymous hillbilly
  • #1,754
  • Jan 24, 2008 7:50am Jan 24, 2008 7:50am
Being watching cable live all week - eyeing the S/R levels.

I am blown away how price bounces from the inner fibs & very often hitting the external targets to the pip - it has given me a much better view to price movement especially in situations where price move against my position.

Bo, thank you for taking the time to share this.
  • #1,755
  • Jan 24, 2008 8:33am Jan 24, 2008 8:33am
Technically I could have pulled a new swing after that last hourly candle with the lower high and been in on this up move from 9644 and sitting beyond break even again. No regrets. (It just hit 1.382 from where I'd draw the swing...damnit)
"Support and Resistance either holds or it doesn't." -Anonymous hillbilly
  • #1,756
  • Jan 24, 2008 8:41am Jan 24, 2008 8:41am
...well, i'm long from 648 with a stop just below the current hour's close atm. Will be keeping an eye on an hrly close now below an hrly trendline (on close, not the low)....as well as being mindful of this swing's T1 (9760ish).
  • #1,757
  • Jan 24, 2008 8:52am Jan 24, 2008 8:52am
I was in the kitchen when it broke out, otherwise I'd have taken it. I usually haven't been paying attention after London because I've been having enough luck early in the night and was fearful of over trading, still am.

I'd feel worse if I had been at negative pips and then missed this one.
"Support and Resistance either holds or it doesn't." -Anonymous hillbilly
  • #1,758
  • Jan 24, 2008 8:53am Jan 24, 2008 8:53am
Quoting maxster
Being watching cable live all week - eyeing the S/R levels.

I am blown away how price bounces from the inner fibs & very often hitting the external targets to the pip - it has given me a much better view to price movement especially in situations where price move against my position.

Bo, thank you for taking the time to share this.

Thats what I started the thread fot too show how fibonacci can aid in trading and how to actually use fibs.
  • #1,759
  • Jan 24, 2008 8:55am Jan 24, 2008 8:55am
Quoting Thexder
Technically I could have pulled a new swing after that last hourly candle with the lower high and been in on this up move from 9644 and sitting beyond break even again. No regrets. (It just hit 1.382 from where I'd draw the swing...damnit)

LOL, dont sweat it, It will do it again tomorrow.
  • #1,760
  • Jan 24, 2008 8:58am Jan 24, 2008 8:58am
Quoting Bobokus
LOL, dont sweat it, It will do it again tomorrow.
I could have had a stop at +30 right now and counting...oh well. I earned enough this morning to get a haircut. I'm out!
"Support and Resistance either holds or it doesn't." -Anonymous hillbilly
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