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Indicator Free Trading - Skunny

  • #2,581
  • Edited 4:02pm Jan 23, 2008 3:59pm | Edited 4:02pm
Quoting Charlie
I've been doing the same type of exercise on live demo from Jan 15 to Jan 23.

I traded most pairs using hourly bars high/low on the 5 minute time frame.

If the 5 minute bar closes above the 1 hour high, or below the 1 hour low...i took the trade with a TP at the 138 extension.

Out of 83 trades...77 hit my TP for a gain. 3 of the losses i chickened out and manually closed them,(they would of hit TP but not quick enough for me).

2 losses i entered at a market top and had to close them. Price never reached TP.

1 loss i entered at a market bottom and had to close it. Price never reached TP.

Promising results so far, now i am not taking trades near daily high or lows to avoid losses at tops and bottoms.


Also my first 38 trades in a row hit TP! Luck probably...but we'll see over time.


Charlie
Charlie,

Sounds great. Thanks for sharing.

I've been doing similar things to what you are discussing but not exactly what you described. I'll run some of my own tests and see how it goes.

I have been looking at soooo many different angles to this that my head has been spinning the last week (no harm in this as far as I can see.....Skunny has thrown out some bones and left us to figure things out to this point....waiting for chapter 3!)).

A couple quick thoughts:

1) Did you notice any pause or reverse in PA (as a general rule) when price did HIT the TP? Some of the purists in the thread (no offense gang!) may not be thrilled with the lack of a noticable stop-and-reverse exactly at the 138......but, as I see it (and Sizz mentions).....there may have been a complete 138 pause, retrace and then continuation on on that 5M bar that doesn't even show up looking at the 5M bar.....but might be quite evident on a 1M or even a 15 or 30 second chart!


2) Those "major" tops and bottoms where you took the losses......that has been my problem area as well. How to deal with this issue might really hold a key.

Anyone have any ideas here?

3) I've "chickened-out" a few times as well. I recall Skunny mentioning that he has done this at times when PA suggested jumping out and waiting to get back in at a better price. This also helps avoid BIG problems at those turn-around points.......chart watching time can help develop the instinct for this IMHO.

Thanks again!
  • #2,582
  • Jan 23, 2008 4:04pm Jan 23, 2008 4:04pm
Quoting sizzler
Heck yeah it would Brunite!

you would end up in the squirrel farm! You could be my chess partner!


Sizz
No wonder I've had such a craving for nuts lately!!
  • #2,583
  • Edited 4:41pm Jan 23, 2008 4:16pm | Edited 4:41pm
Hey !

Try this (EURUSD and GBPUSD, not crosspairs!).

1H chart (looks the same on every chart soft in the world).

Fibo the 2 candles going one after another , if the 2nd candle has HH or LL. Fibo only 1 candle, if the candle is bigger than (lets say) 30 candles before. And watch how the price hits 138.2 >95% and 161.8 maybe>75% IF it crosses 138.2. It is very easy to do this fibo (you dont search for correct tops and bottoms) and you earn QUALITY pips. It requires you to look at the chart just once an hour and set the orders. Im going to test it a bit more and then create a separate thread for this sofar very easy and powerful breakout strategy. This is based on one image skunny posted weeks ago in this awesome thread. I call it fibonacci scalping. It totally follows PA (like pinbars,etc), it is completely intraday-trend following and during the points of change (high/low of day) it usually reaches 138.2 before changing direction. You hunt for ~20 pips per trade usually, but you can have up to 6 trades during a good day for one pair. Im attaching one picture of EURUSD last thursday/friday. You can try it with any 2 candles meeting the criteria.
Thanks skunny, all the credit goes to you.

p.s. im sorry if somebody already pinpointed this, i havent read the whole thread, only like first 100 pages.
p.s.2 i forgot .. watch for daily/weekly pivots, if the pivot and daily/weekly s/r is between 100 and 138.2, you might wanna set TP on that pivot. More (like SL) will be in the thread.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #2,584
  • Jan 23, 2008 4:55pm Jan 23, 2008 4:55pm
Hey guys, here is my fib progression for the latter part of New York. Purple fib came first and looked like it was in play. When it bounced down from the purple 50% and did not make a new low, I did the pink fib which activated for long and made the purple activate for same; then the orange, then light pink, well you get the picture.. This sequence showed me the turn in the market. Although I have traded some with this (successfully I may add), I just watched these for no real pips but much needed practice. I think I'm getting better at this. I haven't demo'd (as in demolished) my indies yet, but I haven't looked at them all week.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Has what you wanted to see made you blind?
  • #2,585
  • Jan 23, 2008 5:10pm Jan 23, 2008 5:10pm
Is everybody taking in those pips?

Looks like it!

Just wanted to say hi.I've been tied up with the workshop stuff. I keep missing all these great moves. I hope someone is cashing in!!!


Good luck!
Robonacci com
  • #2,586
  • Jan 23, 2008 5:12pm Jan 23, 2008 5:12pm
Hey Dunkan,

I understand all fibs up until your pink one. I don't quite understand your reasoning for placing the fib where it is. I see the price retraced a little back into the orange fib but never really hit any s/r. Can you explain this? Maybe I am just clueless.

Luke
Quoting Dunkan
Hey guys, here is my fib progression for the latter part of New York. Purple fib came first and looked like it was in play. When it bounced down from the purple 50% and did not make a new low, I did the pink fib which activated for long and made the purple activate for same; then the orange, then light pink, well you get the picture.. This sequence showed me the turn in the market. Although I have traded some with this (successfully I may add), I just watched these for no real pips but much needed practice. I think I'm getting better at this. I haven't demo'd (as in demolished) my indies yet, but I haven't looked at them all week.
  • #2,587
  • Jan 23, 2008 5:19pm Jan 23, 2008 5:19pm
Quoting Brunite
Charlie,

Sounds great. Thanks for sharing.

I've been doing similar things to what you are discussing but not exactly what you described. I'll run some of my own tests and see how it goes.

I have been looking at soooo many different angles to this that my head has been spinning the last week (no harm in this as far as I can see.....Skunny has thrown out some bones and left us to figure things out to this point....waiting for chapter 3!)).

A couple quick thoughts:

1) Did you notice any pause or reverse in PA (as a general rule) when price did HIT the TP? Some of the purists in the thread (no offense gang!) may not be thrilled with the lack of a noticable stop-and-reverse exactly at the 138......but, as I see it (and Sizz mentions).....there may have been a complete 138 pause, retrace and then continuation on on that 5M bar that doesn't even show up looking at the 5M bar.....but might be quite evident on a 1M or even a 15 or 30 second chart!


2) Those "major" tops and bottoms where you took the losses......that has been my problem area as well. How to deal with this issue might really hold a key.

Anyone have any ideas here?

3) I've "chickened-out" a few times as well. I recall Skunny mentioning that he has done this at times when PA suggested jumping out and waiting to get back in at a better price. This also helps avoid BIG problems at those turn-around points.......chart watching time can help develop the instinct for this IMHO.

Thanks again!
Hi Brunite...by the mere fact that I'm using the 1 hour high/low candle, i almost always see those two areas as both support and resistance. (especially with the 5 minute candles.) After that i usually see two types of trades...

1) a five minute candle with drive right through the high and the 138 extension and i don't even get a trade signal.

2) a five minute candle with close somewhere in between the two areas and then i take the trade if there is enough room for profit (taking the spread into consideration).

Most times after the trade i won't see my 138 hit and then reverse. Usually it goes well beyond that.

But i also haven't looked at the i minute candles at these points so I'm sure there are some mini-cycles within the five minute candle.

Also i have been trading all of the cross pairs ...especially the yen because if i dint see a signal on one pair...i might see it on another, and then i almost always see all the cross pairs reach the 138 extension and beyond....just at different times and different price levels.

Really my experiments with these are fairly young with these but what i think is happening is that I'm entering the trade in the middle of a larger cycle/time frame and exiting with profit well before the cycle is over. Thus the high success rate. The few trades where i hit a top or bottom i probably could of avoided if i had seen that i was right at a 4 hour or daily support or resistance point.

I'm pretty sure I'm babbling at this point but there is one other thing i see, especially with the losses...

from the start of this thread and what i am trying to prove to myself is that the trades i took, even on five-minute bars...that were losses...would eventually become gains given enough time. What happened is i entered at a swing point in a much larger time frame and cant afford the draw down to wait days or weeks for the trade to be in profit, especially with 5 minute bars.

I believe the signals are always valid, but how long will it take for price to reach that level?
Thats why i think Skunny points out the importance of the higher time frames, because if your trading 5 minute or hour bars and expect to be out of a trade in a few hours or a day...but unknowingly enter your trade at a major resistance or support level of a much higher time frame, like a daily, weekly, or even monthly one; then your stop loss, draw down, or patience level will cause you to have to exit that trade (unless you have a lot of cash or are an institution and can handle the drawdowns...which we can't.) . So if we can recognize those important levels on higher time frames then we can avoid those few but costly mistakes.

Just my thoughts...probably rambled abit but hopefully my major ideas can across clearly.

Charlie

http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/progress.gif

  • #2,588
  • Edited 6:14pm Jan 23, 2008 5:29pm | Edited 6:14pm
Quoting Skunny
Is everybody taking in those pips?

Looks like it!

Just wanted to say hi.I've been tied up with the workshop stuff. I keep missing all these great moves. I hope someone is cashing in!!!


Good luck!
Skunny,

you're back! Phew. I have a major question about Gann lines...

KIDDING hehehe nice to see you again.


Sizz.

edit: Islander I just had to post this chart...about crosses not being pip perfect I was freaking out but my last just dragoned on in for a landing. PA is by far the make or break on this.

testing is going well.

edit #2 all those are footprints of my fib ending in the dragon head. they were drawn with the market and all using a set methodology. No discretion except for intepretation of pa I spose under my testing discipline. 140 some pips with little drawdown. I like it.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpjpy%min.gif Size: 14 KB
  • #2,589
  • Jan 23, 2008 5:31pm Jan 23, 2008 5:31pm
Fibo the 2 candles going one after another , if the 2nd candle has HH or LL. Fibo only 1 candle, if the candle is bigger than (lets say) 30 candles before. And watch how the price hits 138.2 >95% and 161.8 maybe>75% IF it crosses 138.2.

Reminds me of the blaster system.

This is a great place to begin learning about the swings within the bigger swings - next would be to look at the time of day in your analysis and which market ie - Asian, London or New York. I use this set up as the basis for my trade after the first 2 hours of the Asian Market. I will look at making a distinction on the second candle and see if I can find a coorelation with pa. Thanks for the thought.
I make money anywhere in the world by taking orders
  • #2,590
  • Jan 23, 2008 5:58pm Jan 23, 2008 5:58pm
Quoting Charlie
...the trades i took, even on five-minute bars...that were losses...would eventually become gains given enough time. What happened is i entered at a swing point in a much larger time frame and cant afford the draw down to wait days or weeks for the trade to be in profit, especially with 5 minute bars.

I believe the signals are always valid, but how long will it take for price to reach that level?
Thats why i think Skunny points out the importance of the higher time frames, because if your trading 5 minute or hour bars and expect to be out of a trade in a few hours or a day...but unknowingly enter your trade at a major resistance or support level of a much higher time frame, like a daily, weekly, or even monthly one; then your stop loss, draw down, or patience level will cause you to have to exit that trade (unless you have a lot of cash or are an institution and can handle the drawdowns...which we can't.) . So if we can recognize those important levels on higher time frames then we can avoid those few but costly mistakes.

Just my thoughts...probably rambled abit but hopefully my major ideas can across clearly.

Charlie

http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/progress.gif

Good thoughts.....

I've had a similar feeling about those 138's being taken out EVENTUALLY.....see it happen a lot on a micro level......suspected the same on a macro level. I suspected this but didn't have a good explanation and assumed my approach was flawed (still may be off base....time will tell!).

Until now.....I like your explanation about checking key levels on the upper TF's.......should'a known that already but I never thought about it with this methodolgy......so much new stuff at once, and all.....that's my excuse!

Seriously.....I never thought about them being "wrong" trades....just that my timing was off.....your explanation makes sense.

Sounds like we are on the same "line of approach"......keep us updated on your progress and I will do likewise!
  • #2,591
  • Jan 23, 2008 6:07pm Jan 23, 2008 6:07pm
Quoting hndymann
Hey Dunkan,

I understand all fibs up until your pink one. I don't quite understand your reasoning for placing the fib where it is. I see the price retraced a little back into the orange fib but never really hit any s/r. Can you explain this? Maybe I am just clueless.

Luke
Luke,

Once the orange fib targets were hit, it became obsolite and I could have taken it out; the pink fib results from the next swing low to swing high and I didn't draw it until the swing high was put in place. Swings are more evident (s\r) on smaller time frames, ie. 1 min. Hope this helps.
Has what you wanted to see made you blind?
  • #2,592
  • Jan 23, 2008 6:18pm Jan 23, 2008 6:18pm
Quoting Dunkan
Luke,

Once the orange fib targets were hit, it became obsolite and I could have taken it out; the pink fib results from the next swing low to swing high and I didn't draw it until the swing high was put in place. Swings are more evident (s\r) on smaller time frames, ie. 1 min. Hope this helps.
Ahh, it took your simple explanation to make a lightbulb go on in my head. Thanks much for responding to this. I finished reading the whole thread yesterday and have been vhanding my arse off. I think a combination of that and my dreaded workplace made my mind a little numb. I have been looking at fib placement as a retrace to the 61.8 and 38.2 levels as some sort of s/r. Maybe I should go back a read a few key posts to get a better understanding of this.
  • #2,593
  • Jan 23, 2008 6:33pm Jan 23, 2008 6:33pm
Quoting sizzler
Skunny,

you're back! Phew. I have a major question about Gann lines...

KIDDING hehehe nice to see you again.


Sizz.

edit: Islander I just had to post this chart...about crosses not being pip perfect I was freaking out but my last just dragoned on in for a landing. PA is by far the make or break on this.

testing is going well.

edit #2 all those are footprints of my fib ending in the dragon head. they were drawn with the market and all using a set methodology. No discretion except for intepretation of pa I spose under my testing discipline. 140 some pips with little drawdown. I like it.
I like that 5M chart Sizz.....
trading naked.......
  • #2,594
  • Jan 23, 2008 7:16pm Jan 23, 2008 7:16pm
  •  itguy
  • | Joined Sep 2006 | Status: 110..220....Whatever it takes | 39 Posts
Quoting DXTrade
It took a while, but here are my next 70 pips on EJ.
And not even one indicator

If you get bothered by my charts... just tell me. Don't want to mess up the thread.
But tell me nicely please
I always knew one day that I would find there were benefits to being color blind........
  • #2,595
  • Jan 23, 2008 7:40pm Jan 23, 2008 7:40pm
WOW! Just watch those fibs FAIL! So many in a row.. that's the direction.

Absolutely amazing!
Has what you wanted to see made you blind?
  • #2,596
  • Jan 23, 2008 7:45pm Jan 23, 2008 7:45pm
Brunite, here is an example of what i think we were talking about.

The first chart is the 5 min chart where i took the trade at the high of the 1 hour bar.

The second chart is the 4 hour time frame.

The third chart is the daily time frame.

As we can see even though most of my trades have been successful without any other kind of analysis...

Looking at the higher time frames shows that hitting the 138 in this situation was highly improbable...especially looking at the daily bars where the trade was at the three day high in an obvious downtrend.

But also i do believe that we will hit the target of 212.76 eventually...(that the signal is not false). Time will tell.

But obviously we don't want to keep a trade open for three weeks when trading with 5 minute or 1 hour bars.

Charlie
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 5 min.gif Size: 16 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 4 hour.gif Size: 31 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: day.gif Size: 22 KB
  • #2,597
  • Edited 8:40pm Jan 23, 2008 8:26pm | Edited 8:40pm
Quoting piphitman
I like that 5M chart Sizz.....

Thanks piphitman!

..I feel like I am getting it and catching up to the class finally I LOVE having nice pip tight charts with no fudging or guessing or slop.
That IMO would have been a flawless trading day. I might tear up at the thought.. sniff sniff.. hehehe tight stop little draw down no losses.., clean charts.. there is something in both of ... my eyes.. sniff.. hehe

I love this game.


heres hoping the sky doesn;t come tumbling down on me I have my hello kitty mind exploder helmet on just in case let see what tomorrow's charts bring no whammies no whammies!!!


Side note
Hey what does your GY 1hr range look like? Is there a confirmed downside or are we on the fence? I did a chart I lost that I think has a 202.55 ds confirmed.
but right now I can only see 210.47 SH -204.58 Sl which is undecided but where do you think it is going). and a little fib that just completed. So my GY chart is closed. but on the daily I have 200.58 active downside from yesterday using teh same method that produced those 5 and one minute charts.

Sizz.

edit:
that got me thinking so I charted out the M1 of the GBPJPY using how I do it now. and this is the last walk of the fib... no foolin, for real I about fell out of my chair and fudged myself. I have between 0 and 120 pip gaps through out the walk. the last fib ended right on the last green bar.. wowowo
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #2,598
  • Jan 23, 2008 9:01pm Jan 23, 2008 9:01pm
Hi Skunny and everyone,
I have been lurking around this thread for a long time now, well before xmas.
But with practicing vhands, trying different fib placement, even some gann lines and so on, it took me for ever to catch up. I actually did catch up a while ago but you guys write way too fast for me and as soon as I turn my back to experiment and learn a little more, when I refresh I find 5 new pages to read. Well this thread is alive!
But just reading in the background makes me feel bad and I thought I should check in and express my gratitude with my poor vocabulary and bring my input…
So thank you for this wonderful thread Skunny, you have really succeeded to gather people here with a positive attitude toward learning and helping other to learn. Thank you to every body for your posts. I’ll do my best to contribute to this thread as much as I can.
I had some ‘Aha’ moments as people call it, but my vhands trading results are still not that good. But in vhands you can’t switch between time frames and I have noticed that when things start to go wrong if I zoom out I find that I was lost in tiny moves forgetting the big picture and I can correct my fib placement.

Skunny, since the exercise on post # 2215 I think the thread has taken off, at least my understanding has. So please more of this on a new level…:


As a side note you probably noticed that English is not my first language (can’t be cured) so if in some of my posts you find that its sound negative or weird, just tell me and I’ll try to better explain, since I’m far to know all the subtleties of English. Let's alone joking and being understood….
I can understand them, though. Well not always Sizzler's but I owe him and many of you guys a lot of good laughs…
Schmurex

PS.Gknarf could you, please, post your multiple time frame fractals indicator, it might help finding the bigger TF SR on vhands. For the same purpose, GridTrader you mentioned you have a tool to plot last weeks high and low to easily draw your weekly fibs on vhands 1hr chart, could you post it?
Thanks in advance, guys.
  • #2,599
  • Jan 23, 2008 9:56pm Jan 23, 2008 9:56pm
Quoting Charlie
...............................
Also my first 38 trades in a row hit TP! Luck probably...but we'll see over time.

Charlie
Laboring
Under
Correct
Knowledge

good job!
  • #2,600
  • Jan 23, 2008 10:12pm Jan 23, 2008 10:12pm
that got me thinking so I charted out the M1 of the GBPJPY using how I do it now. and this is the last walk of the fib... no foolin, for real I about fell out of my chair and fudged myself. I have between 0 and 120 pip gaps through out the walk. the last fib ended right on the last green bar.. wowowo

As always when someone puts a chart on the thread I have to learn how to duplicate it - when I walked my fib's on this chart I ended up with the same target at 204.28 but my fibs where pulled from the Aug low to the nov high. I still don;t understand your low back in 05. I have some more work to do me thinks.
I make money anywhere in the world by taking orders
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