james16 Chart Thread

Jatis i am in this trade on the weekly as well. I am going to let it hit my stop loss which is below the pin. I am in the same boat as you are wondering what is going on. I thought there was fairly good support that the pin bounce on and it did seem like a swing low at the time.

Maybe the cut in interest rates had something to do with it? I dunno. All the other yen and chf pairs are dropping as well, seems this just got dragged along with it.

I think one also should be aware that the USDCHF just like the USDJPY is also used for the carry trade, and if the whole market is unwinding carry trades, like on the EURCHF(have you SEEN that chart!), then USDCHF will be hit and influenced as well.

IMHO it would have been simpler and more effective to sell the EURUSD, which had pro-dollar setups as well. In my opinion this was definitely the better pair to use for this.
As we can see either way, what with it being a countertrend trade, it did not get very far, and the reaction against the short direction(short EURUSD, long USD) was accordingly strong.

Ironically, I have the suspicion that many people chose USDCHF over the EURUSD because they felt they would then have smaller stops.. forgetting that the reason they would have smaller stops was the fact that the pair had less energy to move in their favor(therefore having covered less distance).

At least this is my take on things, and you know, I do like to make it rather complicated

You DO make it complicated often times.... although I was trading for other reasons... the weekly Pin was tempting too... but I also saw it not a very strong Pin... and above all... I only traded a very small amount... I only lost 0.7% of my account...

And in fact... so far it should not have hit a stop if someone is trading the Pin by regular rules... it may still have a chance... I have not completely dismissed the idea of getting in again.... but as long as stock markets are all a mess, I am not trading anything...

I'd say don't give up hope for CHF... you put your stop loss there for a reason.... you should be willing to go that far with it...

I don't think most traded CHF over stop loss size.... but because it was a Pin Bar.... and a Pin brings hope of pips.... !!!! It is the principle first attraction for many to the J16 thread.... and Price Action... I thought I was going to learn to trade pins and then here would come my pips... I don't mind work and study... but I thought is would be less work and study with Price action... !!! And that is the honest truth... !!! But while it is more than I expected... I am working on it... and I am not giving up... !!! I have only made 4 trades this year.... three of them winners... and one loss... I say that's not a bad record....

And I also bet if fed had not stepped in with their nosey .75 rate cut... chf would now be in profit...

It will blow over.... the big problems have not been solved in the last couple of days...

These are one of my most favourite trades.

Not Forex, but it's a really good example of a trade with negligable risk.
Doesn't have to be an A+ pin for it to work in a case like this. The potential pay off is large enough that I don't even have to risk %1. Actually gone for %0.5!!!

The best scenario is a continuation upwards past the peak. More than likely a LONG way past that pre-pullback peak. Target 1 for me is the %61.8 retrace. Taking half profit and letting the rest run free and naked through the cool summer breeze..... ....<aaaaaahhhhhh>

...AND it's just hit that first TP then.

I have the rest on a stop just below the pin. If it fails I'm actually a little in profit. Having a free trade means walking away and checking on things later. Absolutely no stress.

This will be interesting. Often this same pullback, on a larger scale, will repeat itself later as the larger timeframes develop. LOL

hi all

http://i222.photobucket.com/albums/d.../gjdailypa.gif

very tough battle at gj daily...after forming a buovb...look like it formed a pinbar...but the whole of the pinbar cover the previous green day...something like beovb....arrrghhh...better to watch for another pair...what do u think guys ?...hehe

Hi guys. I've been reading this great post for months and I'm starting right now to master PA. I hope I'll post interesting views.
I start with EUR/CHF, It's at a resistence and formed a BEOB
4H chart
A few minutes to the end of the bar and we'll have a BEOB+an inside Bar, not a normal IB but an IB4

The way I'd look at this setup is as a 2 Day Pinbar if you combine the second and third last bars. But have a look at the 2 bars before your setup. You could look at these as a pinbar as well which would signal a long. The short might be the better option however because of the downtrend.

Chris

You're right, the 2 bars before combined are a 8hrs pinbar...but the resistence is very strong for me, so I prefer the short

I made a mistake, I didn't put the 1,5833 mega support on my chart. I closed my short with a small loss. Yesterday low could remain a medium term low for a couple of days, weeks, who knows. Now a continuation pinbar is forming

I like your approach Bundy LOL

Since I went through the time and effort of writing this in a news commentary, I thought it's best put to use here as well, as it may show how I think when I look at the chart.

Maybe some people find it interesting

I'm just gonna post it in original form BUT as a special for this thread of course, add the chart in question as well

-----------snip!-------------

My techs are always price, s/r and TLs on the chart only(no indicators).

USDJPY hit a projected target at 105.35 area and reacted quite strongly accordingly as I suspect people took profit at the round number that is 105(as did I - I am out of most of my USDJPY shorts at the moment due to this target hit and reaction of 105).
Numbers like these are often quite pivotal as they're something to "orient around".

We do not have a close below 105.50 yet on a daily basis, let alone weekly.
We have had lower highs and lower lows since the 27th December as direction remains downwards. Currently all rallies are being met with selling.

The complete 100-101.50 / 104 / 105 areas are strewn with support, making progress difficult.

However, we do have a weekly close below the 1995-2004 TL so the potential for a test of the 101.50-103.50 area remains.
Current rallies if they gain traction could go up to 107.50-108 and form bearish setups to sell for these attempts.

The main problem remains that given current market conditions the danger of an out of the blue crash is as similiarly possible as an out of the blue short squeeze leading to areas of resistance.
If there's a move and close above 108 there's another nice area to watch for just below 110 for bearish setups.

Re-establishment of anything above 111.50 and personally my looking for bearish setups would be over.

The charts are messy simply because if it is the cuts that make the equities go up that are supposed to spur the carry trade, then per the very definition the USD must also weaken because of the cut - and you get a torn USDJPY.

Both explosive USD selloffs as well as drastic stock market moves lower will push USDJPY lower; the question is, when will either come.

For me the fact that we have reached clusters of support and hit my month's traded towards price projection simply puts me in passive / cautious mode as I await clear bearish setups(a clean rally with preferably lots of bullish euphoria posts for a bit in a straight line, then a sudden, out of the blue stalling, bearish engulfing or pin bar / doji candles at relevant areas as described above and then a trigger short would be a possible scenario).

Right now price has said both "I don't wanna go below 105" as well as being capped by a short term TL intersecting the 107 area, making for a "I'm so tired, can't I rest?" tugged and torn USDJPY.

Not the time to go in big.

I suspect a failed rally will most likely enable a new setup, however risk remains that the JPY pairs exaggerate a bit as usual.
I am looking for USDJPY shorts below 111.50, EJ 160, GJ 222(well I'm sorry it's that far away, but it's EURGBP's fault!).
Favored sell spots for USDJPY for me remain round number areas 108(weekly TL underside) and 109(horizontal s/r line).
Anything above that and I want to see a bit more of price behavior first.

Plan is: await reaction at marked areas, sell setups if they appear, target 105-106 retest, 101.50-104 on break of that with appropiate trade management stop wise as situation warrants.

Main focus is always USDJPY as I feel the USD selloff on the majors that happens a lot of the time distorts the crosses a lot, whereas USDJPY is both kicked by USD weakness AND stock market weakness AND, the rare occassions that that ever shows, JPY strength. It is THE core pair, motor and catalyst for most of the crosses' progress(EURUSD is barely 345 pips off it's all time highs, yet EJ is 1250 pips off it's high - who did the work here, USDJPY or EURUSD?).

These are my reasons, this is my plan and now it's wait and see how it goes.
UJ EJ GJ and the DJI have hit some support, so the initial reaction was probably profit taking(definitely the case IMHO on UJ) and resting orders being filled => bounce.
As is the adage on all downtrends(or downwards directional moves if one feels a monthly close needs to be in first), sell rallies until the trend is over.

I don't know if any of you guys have access to the J16 site. I post a weekly review and forecast of what's on the charts and going on every Sunday called "FXNotes". If you dig around on FF's public side you will see I have done this for over a year, the first half of it on the public side. Mostly to sort out things for myself as I put it into words.
I also have a journal on the new J16 site where I post setups, forecasts and trade development basically every day. The initial USDJPY trade from 117.xx on down to 109 was outlined, the bounce at that area(TL etc) was drawn in, the later bearish setup at 114.xx then utilized to resell, then finally the FE 100 projection at 105.35ish reached. Charts usually for me have comments on my thoughts like "lose 113, get 109" or "below 107 and hitting the FE 100 should be a must" or "This TL (at 109 area) might be ugly".
Similiar stuff for EURCHF etc.
Some of the charts are also strewn about the public J16 thread, but really it is my journal that has like 5-30 posts per day, cluttering it with charts as my main chart gallery

Links/sources:

http://forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=8442 is the "outlook for price action" I tried to do way, way, WAY back when(oh my, I was very, very green in some areas still, the wording alone tells me that there was still a L O T of ego in there...never good.."I can tell the future, heed my words"..no no no hehehe not good.) and that now turned into the "FXNotes" in pretty much the same format. Bit more stoic now, more brevity ;p

http://www.james16group.com/
The "J16 site" I keep referring to.

http://forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=2331
The free public J16 thread that started me on the path of Price Action and taught me all the basics.
------snip!--------

(Hey, that's us here! If you look over the last few months you will find the two example charts on the USDJPY where that 117 BEOB and 114.xx BEOB trade is at..but I can also post an update on that, too)

This is the updated example chart I was referring to.

This is just one of many alternatives of course.

Does anyone remember what the very first post in this thread says?

If not read it again, it's both a bit irritating and true

You mean the free trade thing? Why not?

No need to have a heart attack everytime the chart retraces against you!

Current status...

This market reacted to the 38.2% line on the daily chart.
I've learnt to watch these areas for "fake" price action. Or weak price action. This turned into a pin on the hourly chart. As I said, I knew some kind of reaction was likely, and the pin was positioned poorly anyway. Irrelevent when the market was closed to me anyway!
What also makes this easy to live with, is the stop on my "free trade" is now moved to a 50 point guaranteed profit . ...Plus previous proceeds , makes for a reeaally easy trade to let run in that breeze. lol

Risked 17 points. Currently up 170. ...almost . lol

When I've got more experience with this index , I'll increase my risk percentage. Maybe later in the year. For now though ,it makes it fun.

Ooooooooooooohhhhhhh, I wants I wants I wants....

LOL. Don'ts we all.

This came from a double bottom on the 4 hour. I'll post a pic later tonight. Currently sitting at the target area. I'm out for 200 even.

It's the end of the week. Got other things to do. Australia day tomorrow! Gotta warm up tonight.

Hey, I just want to tell you how much I appreciate the time you take to post your insigths, sometimes a bit complicated though, I really liked your last post on the carry situation... Sebastien

[quote=SeekingLight;1819168]
Favored sell spots for USDJPY for me remain round number areas 108(weekly TL underside) and 109(horizontal s/r line).
Anything above that and I want to see a bit more of price behavior first.

Hi again Seeking Light,
If possible, could you elaborate a bit on this statement "above 109 I want to see a bit more of price behavior first"
Does that mean you are willing to short between 108 and 109 without pa confirmation? I doubt the answer to be yes so my question is really what pa would be enough to sell between 108-109 but not above it? I hope you understand me.... Thanks Sebastien

hi all,

http://i222.photobucket.com/albums/d...dusd_beovb.gif

beovb at 61.8 retrace....there is also daily ppz at that zone.

what do u think guys ?

thnx

e/j watch...
.

hi all,

is this 2 day pinbar ?

http://i222.photobucket.com/albums/d...echf2daypb.gif

thnx