4 Hour Strategy (MACD) | Page 534 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

4 hour strategy (the nausbot - 4 hour trader) 25 replies

4 Hour Strategy Macd+other Indicator 21 replies

X-1102 1 hour , 4 hour and daily Tf trades 7 replies

Create a verticle line at certain hour for every certain hour 16 replies

Is the "4 Hour Strategy (MACD)" the best system here at FF? 20 replies

Attachments: 4 Hour Strategy (MACD)
Exit Attachments

4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #10,661
  • Jan 23, 2008 10:30am Jan 23, 2008 10:30am
Hello,

I'd need some advice on eu/usd and gbp/usd

both seem as one could place a short trade.

eur/usd has crossed 21 and comes back to it. next candle may show if
21 holds. then there would be a short possibility.

gbp/usd has also crossed 21 and came back to it, finding resistance and moves
down again. maybe early entry on 1h?

the dotted lines are possible sl's and tp's.

what do you think?

Regards
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd.gif Size: 16 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd.gif Size: 17 KB
  • #10,662
  • Jan 23, 2008 10:47am Jan 23, 2008 10:47am
Quoting bshadroo
fed cut the rate 75% wich was a record in recent years... well ... but what the eurusd did?
run 100pips in 1 minute after (OK) then went another 80pips(totaly 180pips
) in about 8hours( not a good move ,i was axpecting more) and then backed all the 200pips down !!!
i was really expecting at least 500pips(totaly) move in eurusd and a going back to 1.49's or even breaking that
this kind of action to the 75% rate cut is very very strange ....
bshadroo,
The UK and other EU banks are also contemplating rate cuts. In many ways their markets are similar to the US market. So an American rate cut is not just local; is anything local anymore? I'm surprised that you're surprised, because nothing is to be expected. The markets, as we've all experienced, have the uncanny ability to prove most traders wrong.

Quoting hijackxx
EDIT:
There's still a possibility though for E/U to go back bullish because of the long legged doji(if im not mistaken for the name of the candle). MACD is needed for confirmation.
hijackxx, I think you mean a hammer (if you mean the green candle next to the last). A doji has the same open and close.

good luck to all
  • #10,663
  • Jan 23, 2008 10:56am Jan 23, 2008 10:56am
ashes:

As far as the EU goes...I see what you see.

From a perspective of volatility...

I think I posted something like this months ago. The indicator on the bottom is the Average True Range set at 1 with the range level at .0050 (50 pips for the EU). This is a plot of the range of every bar, not an average of the past x number of bars. Look at the highlighted square over the las few days. The ATR has been very erratic. Look back before this and see how the ATR looks flatter, it breaks above the .0050 level, but in a normal pattern. You can see this better on your own charts vs. this pic. Anyway, this tells me that things are very volatile with this current pair and trading will be difficult. Until the ATR (the price range for each bar) settles back down the difficulty in trading this pair will continue...no matter what method you use. Again, this is where patience and discipline with trading play a major role in being successful.

Your 'thought for the day'....
Attached Image
  • #10,664
  • Jan 23, 2008 11:01am Jan 23, 2008 11:01am
Quoting ashes
Hello,

I'd need some advice on eu/usd and gbp/usd

both seem as one could place a short trade.

eur/usd has crossed 21 and comes back to it. next candle may show if
21 holds. then there would be a short possibility.

gbp/usd has also crossed 21 and came back to it, finding resistance and moves
down again. maybe early entry on 1h?

the dotted lines are possible sl's and tp's.

what do you think?

Regards
Since I am Short GU, I'm on your side for bearish EU, too (because they are correlated pairs). If you are willing to trigger a short entry now, then it is okay. Why? because MACD is still showing bear sign, and the price is still hanging somewhere within the previous big red closed candle.
However there are also some negative sign for the price to move backup again.
1. Candle formed a hammer shape.
2. For me personally, if I was you and trigger the short trade, I'd set my SL to the top, which is abit wider because I still consider this as a CT trade.
3. Don't ever trust anyone, accept yourself. It's your money afterall.

My 2 cents & Good luck to you.
  • #10,665
  • Jan 23, 2008 12:33pm Jan 23, 2008 12:33pm
Quoting hijackxx
yeah, I do use MT4. Don't tell me there's another way to edit captured screen using MT4!

I don't know but, I'm addicted to this. I just can't leave the desk! I love to see my trade doin' ups and downs without any external interference :, no matter it is a positive nor negative trades. And the fun part is that, even my girlfriend does mad at me because of forex
One day she was like.. "Go marry that forex instead of marrying women!"
You've got time for a girlfriend and you trade Forex!? Let me know how you are able to do that...

As far as editing the charts go after you save them...I've dropped them into PowerPoint before and then do a screen capture with ScreenHunter to save the pic exactly as it is. If it's 'saved as' with another program it can distort 'all the work' you've done....


Pip on
  • #10,666
  • Jan 23, 2008 2:20pm Jan 23, 2008 2:20pm
Dear phillip

what I understand for using 1 H to support the 4H on the TC is that when the Tc start to begin on the 4H we can enter early using 1 H if its shows also TC .. is it true ? as I see some traders using Round top -bottom on 1H to supprt the TC on the 4H .. is that can be used ? pls advice

Thanks
  • #10,667
  • Jan 23, 2008 2:55pm Jan 23, 2008 2:55pm
Market is still a mess if you trade TC's may take a few days to work this stuff out. 500 point swings = stay out until we get a trend.
Keep taking CT trades, I need more money
  • #10,668
  • Jan 23, 2008 6:00pm Jan 23, 2008 6:00pm
Quoting Palmer
arod: Welcome to the thread! Staying with the trend is the way to go.

Ditto what pips said: Volatility Volatility Volatility.....


Go Yanks!
Thanks, nice blog. Congrat. Yesterday I was short G/U at 1.9610, stopped out at 1.9550 (ma21 level). Today a negative divergence could be formed... 1.9600/20 potential entry zone to reset shorts.

Adrian
  • #10,669
  • Jan 23, 2008 10:08pm Jan 23, 2008 10:08pm
New Info:

Phillip and I are in the process of starting up a separate forum that deals exclusively with trades and trades only. There are several members of this thread, a few who I still have to contact, that have been invited to post about specific trades, set-ups, entries, and/or exits. The posts will be direct and to the point. The main reason for this is because there can be times when a post is placed here and there can be several questions as to "What is a MACD?", "How do I plot the moving averages?", or "When you guys say Tc, what do you mean?" etc. and the 'meat' of the original trade post can get lost in the thread. The FF thread here is a very active thread and continues to grow, which is a good thing! The 'other' forum is a no questions asked about the method forum. Once you have taken an active part in the thread here and thoroughly understand the concepts you will get your 'invite' to join the forum. Posting on the forum is voluntary but all posts will be 'trade posts'. How do you get 'invited'? Everything is based on your posts here. We are by no means trying to divert traffic away from the FF (there are a few direct links back here on the forum) or grade anyone but there really isn't any other way to do this. There are a lot of people who have been with this thread for several months and they no how this all works so they have been 'invited'. It's all a matter of time before you get there also.

This is very important: There are several of us here that have taken it upon ourselves to help out here. With all of the new faces showing up, and new traders, they may need a little help learning the method. We've all been there before, we don't have a clue where to start and we asked a thousand questions. Once you get invited to the thread it's imperative that we keep posting here as well to continue to help the new faces showing up. Nobody is 'leaving'.

I contacted the FF asking permission to post the link here but have yet to hear back from them. When the website is updated over the weekend I'll have a direct link to the forum there. There still may be a few kinks to work out but it's about 98% 'good to go'. Again, think of this as being an 'Advanced Market Rhythm' forum....you'll get there. I still have a few members here to contact so give me time...been kinda busy lately.
  • #10,670
  • Jan 23, 2008 11:58pm Jan 23, 2008 11:58pm
OK, 5 minutes to the close of my 4 hour candle. Nothing so far on E/U, G/U or U/J - so wait, wait ...
  • #10,671
  • Edited 12:59am Jan 24, 2008 12:56am | Edited 12:59am
Quoting Palmer
New Info:

Phillip and I are in the process of starting up a separate forum that deals exclusively with trades and trades only. There are several members of this thread, a few who I still have to contact, that have been invited to post about specific trades, set-ups, entries, and/or exits. The posts will be direct and to the point. The main reason for this is because there can be times when a post is placed here and there can be several questions as to "What is a MACD?", "How do I plot the moving averages?", or "When you guys say Tc, what do you mean?" etc. and the 'meat' of the original trade post can get lost in the thread. The FF thread here is a very active thread and continues to grow, which is a good thing! The 'other' forum is a no questions asked about the method forum. Once you have taken an active part in the thread here and thoroughly understand the concepts you will get your 'invite' to join the forum. Posting on the forum is voluntary but all posts will be 'trade posts'. How do you get 'invited'? Everything is based on your posts here. We are by no means trying to divert traffic away from the FF (there are a few direct links back here on the forum) or grade anyone but there really isn't any other way to do this. There are a lot of people who have been with this thread for several months and they no how this all works so they have been 'invited'. It's all a matter of time before you get there also.

This is very important: There are several of us here that have taken it upon ourselves to help out here. With all of the new faces showing up, and new traders, they may need a little help learning the method. We've all been there before, we don't have a clue where to start and we asked a thousand questions. Once you get invited to the thread it's imperative that we keep posting here as well to continue to help the new faces showing up. Nobody is 'leaving'.

I contacted the FF asking permission to post the link here but have yet to hear back from them. When the website is updated over the weekend I'll have a direct link to the forum there. There still may be a few kinks to work out but it's about 98% 'good to go'. Again, think of this as being an 'Advanced Market Rhythm' forum....you'll get there. I still have a few members here to contact so give me time...been kinda busy lately.
I remember when i first found ForexFactory. I was overwhelmed by the wealth of information to be found here....I have spent thousands.....yes thousands, of hours digesting information from this site. I would probably not still be trading forex were it not for this website........and I would probably not be trading Forex profitably were it not for this thread......a thread that has taken on a life of its own in the passing months. A thread with so much to be learned that another site was developed just to catalog in some kind of orderly fashion the methodology behind the strategy........

New ones arrive in this thread every week some completely innocent and wide-eyed, others already treated to a good thrashing by the markets and looking for a saner, safer, profitable way to trade. I remember when i was them. I remember learning what MACD, TC, RB, CT and even more importantly NFP was. So I have no problem spending time helping them here on the 4hr MACD Strategy thread with their questions.......the intent of this thread by Phillip is to teach. So it is fitting that this is where the learners should be. Reading, asking questions, studying, for many,....many...hours. Going thru the 13 lessons. Learning what you are looking for...The Rythym....

However once you have it down and are actively trading profitably, you will wish for a place to post a potential trade, a heads up so to speak for your fellow traders that know the system...along with its learned vocabulary, and moves. A place where you yourself can periodically glance to see what others whose insight you trust, have posted possible trading opportunities that you may not have noticed, because , either you were at your day job, you were watching another currency pair, or you were asleep........

Trying to use this thread for that purpose is not feasible. As Palmer said the good dependable info can get "lost" in the shuffle of day to day questions and answers....Thanks to Palmer and Phillip for having the insight to see that another place was needed to satisfy this need.....

I enjoy coming here and posting a chart, answering a question or two and helping others in general...not just for them, but also because teaching the strategy only sounds it down into my mind and heart better. It helps me too.

I have no intention of abandoning this thread or the new ones that need help. I would miss it to much. I hope this new forum and the "privelege" of posting there can be viewed as a "goal to be acheived" by you all. As you progress here your postings will show your level of advancement. I look forward to seeing you all achieve the level worthy of being invited to the "Advanced Market Rythym" group.

Study hard, be patient, persistent, and profitable.

Pipip....................Jimdandy

Planning, Patience, and Persistance ,Produce Profit...... Period!
  • #10,672
  • Edited 1:53am Jan 24, 2008 1:37am | Edited 1:53am
Looks like gbpusd trying to establish rythym...but too soon to tell.....in 30 minutes this candle could look very different when it closes.....also where do you put your stop? Where is the upper resistance? the 89? thats a 100 pips away. even above last candle is 60 pips......will wait on better looking tc....might enter early on 1hr but Moving averages on 1hr chart are a tangled mess.....watching and waiting........pipip........Jimdandy

important note: This candle closes at the open of the London markets.....be careful
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpusd.gif Size: 16 KB
  • #10,673
  • Jan 24, 2008 1:42am Jan 24, 2008 1:42am
I think you have GBP News in 2 hours, might be better to stay out.
  • #10,674
  • Edited 1:36pm Jan 24, 2008 2:29am | Edited 1:36pm
Hi,

I took usd/jpy short this morning.

106.33
sl 107.00 (2x -67)
tp1 105,90 (+43)
tp2 105,40 (+93)
134:136

early entry on 1h chart. 9:00 (broker gmt+1) candle moved off 8sma.
macd shows lower high.

on 4h chart you see the tendency of a move downwards,
macd boz plus a very round half.

edit: price has problems to go through 106.00. has tried it two times now but both failed.

edit: for hours I'm in minus pips, already been at -60. now I hope that the price changes direction
so I may get out of this trade at least breakeven. stoch slow shows on 1h and on 4h a possible
change of direction, so there's still hope. 107.00 has to hold.

edit: wow, this was definitely a loss: -134 pips, total

resumee:
I should have taken the +30 pips around 106.00 instead of waiting for my plan to give me more than a 100.
what does Phillip say? "you can not have 20-30 positive pips and leave them, hoping there will be more.
at 20-25 you close half of your position and give the other half a chance to go on"
I should have done that. at least +30 would have been pocketed. next time I'll close the first half around 20-30.
lesson learned.

Regards
  • #10,675
  • Jan 24, 2008 2:30am Jan 24, 2008 2:30am
Quoting ammar2000a70
Dear phillip

what I understand for using 1 H to support the 4H on the TC is that when the Tc start to begin on the 4H we can enter early using 1 H if its shows also TC .. is it true ? as I see some traders using Round top -bottom on 1H to supprt the TC on the 4H .. is that can be used ? pls advice

Thanks
Still am waiting for any response
  • #10,676
  • Jan 24, 2008 2:34am Jan 24, 2008 2:34am
Hi,

watch eur/usd, gbp/usd, aud/usd.
we seem to be close to a breakout on these pairs.
They all have simmilar setups in symmetrical triangle formation (more or less).

Regards
  • #10,677
  • Jan 24, 2008 2:39am Jan 24, 2008 2:39am
Looking at the chart I still see E/U as very high risk, it is having trouble finding direction although I suspect we may seem some form of break one way or the other today. If I had to go in one direction I think it would be down at least initially but I am not trading this today not until we see some real direction.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd5.gif Size: 26 KB
  • #10,678
  • Jan 24, 2008 2:52am Jan 24, 2008 2:52am
Technically:
I've drawn my TL on the EU pair and I think I found the rhythm. I'm looking for more short on EU today after the candle closes in a few hours and yes, MACD signal is required before the entry. As long as the candle stays under the TL, I think we're safe to go short from that point.

Fundamentally:
Since FF's calendar is also giving us bad EUR news forecasts and some good news forecasts for the US, they give more confidence for me to take the shorts.
Until then, good luck.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: current EU rhythm.jpg Size: 217 KB
  • #10,679
  • Jan 24, 2008 2:56am Jan 24, 2008 2:56am
Quoting ashes
Hi,

watch eur/usd, gbp/usd, aud/usd.
we seem to be close to a breakout on these pairs.
They all have simmilar setups in symmetrical triangle formation (more or less).

Regards
I agree I think the triangle on E/U you mention is the one I have drawn on my previous post?

Anyway break is possible especially around news releases coming out. I am sitting aside today probably all day.
  • #10,680
  • Jan 24, 2008 3:02am Jan 24, 2008 3:02am
Quoting ammar2000a70
Still am waiting for any response

Here is the 4hr tc being formed and the 1hr chart in agreement....however notice that even on 1hr timeframe would need a large stoploss....but otherwise this would be a good example.....will wait for better entry point...maybe it will retrace back up a little this hour and still close with tc on the 1hr.....we'll see.....pipip........Jimdandy
p.s. will be a busy day on the European Markets trying to sort out the U.S. Market yo-yo up and down Dow....
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdchf.gif Size: 18 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: usdchf1hr.gif Size: 16 KB
31 traders viewing now