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Indicator Free Trading - Skunny

  • #2,541
  • Jan 23, 2008 2:32am Jan 23, 2008 2:32am
Quoting ianf0ster
Hi Dunkan,

D). (This is new and I am not sure what he means by it). Skunny said that for a Fib to be valid, it must have its 'mid -range resistance levels completed'. Until that time it is not to be considered a valid 100% tradeable Fib.
Thanks Ian,

This little nugget has made a huge difference for me lately.

watching the price reach to certain levels and bounce off of it then going to the next level and bouncing off of that. As you get to each level and can see it happen before your eyes you are almost certain you know where price will go.....or better yet, where it will not go.
trading naked.......
  • #2,542
  • Jan 23, 2008 2:42am Jan 23, 2008 2:42am
Just another chart to illustrate:

after having hit the 38.2 extension down earlier today the fib was over for me and now I drew a new one... valid as I see it because it retraced nicely to the 38.2 inner fib.

Possible breakout down at 207.47 with target 206.32.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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"The only successful substitute for brains is silence."
  • #2,543
  • Jan 23, 2008 2:49am Jan 23, 2008 2:49am
Quoting piphitman
Thanks Ian,

This little nugget has made a huge difference for me lately.

watching the price reach to certain levels and bounce off of it then going to the next level and bouncing off of that. As you get to each level and can see it happen before your eyes you are almost certain you know where price will go.....or better yet, where it will not go.
Good morning Hitman! So then it is the inner resistance levels Skunny was referring to and you have seen a difference? The one thing it does do is shorten the possible drawn down. If s/r is found, then a retrace back beyond that point would be a good area to cut your loss I would think. Price does what it wants to sometimes but at least the odds work in your favor that it will move in your direction.

This is not a normal trading time for me, normally sleeping through it
PipHunter
  • #2,544
  • Jan 23, 2008 2:49am Jan 23, 2008 2:49am
the only defuse will be 0430 BOD minites,let's wait.

but pound is stong now despite the weak stock of euro,somethiing behind it?

Quoting DXTrade
Just another chart to illustrate:

after having hit the 38.2 extension down earlier today the fib was over for me and now I drew a new one... valid as I see it because it retraced nicely to the 38.2 inner fib.

Possible breakout down at 207.47 with target 206.32.
  • #2,545
  • Jan 23, 2008 2:52am Jan 23, 2008 2:52am
Quoting ianf0ster
Hi Dunkan,
IFor me, my Fibs are only correct if:

D). (This is new and I am not sure what he means by it). Skunny said that for a Fib to be valid, it must have its 'mid -range resistance levels completed'. Until that time it is not to be considered a valid 100% tradeable Fib.

Ian
Its my understanding that for a fib to be valid it should have retraced to at least the 38 level. But is this the whole story?

Piphitman,
You mention levels being hit one by one but is that the same thing you are talking about, your comment has made me wonder if I have it right.
  • #2,546
  • Jan 23, 2008 3:01am Jan 23, 2008 3:01am
Thanks for the reply Ian. I understand we may not all be looking for the same thing, but hopefully together, we can all find something (what?). Anyway, I've also got this pink fib from a larger time frame which may be the one the market is working on right now too; and here it is, one last chart. I also thought I read somewhere that retracement to at least 38.2 internally makes the fib tradeable. Could be wrong, probably am.

We'll see.. more practice though, it is evident is needed.
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Has what you wanted to see made you blind?
  • #2,547
  • Jan 23, 2008 3:08am Jan 23, 2008 3:08am
Quoting seb123
Its my understanding that for a fib to be valid it should have retraced to at least the 38 level. But is this the whole story?

Piphitman,
You mention levels being hit one by one but is that the same thing you are talking about, your comment has made me wonder if I have it right.
I meant that in the context of seeing several candles within a fib range hit their spots before entering a trade, as opposed to entering a trade on say....only two candles. The 1M trade I posted here earlier I used as an example of waiting till price had moved around a bit and reached certain levels but did not exceed those levels before moving up and then not exceeding price at the next level and so on. You could watch the price do this all the way up to the 0/100 for entry. At that point you know once 0/100 is breached it's going to continue. I am looking for a way to enter before the 0/100 so that I can get more pips for profit, but more importantly reducing the drawdown if the trade goes bad.
trading naked.......
  • #2,548
  • Jan 23, 2008 3:14am Jan 23, 2008 3:14am
and here is the smaller blue fib that is about to be activated.. and just was as I type and wow, hit the target too..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Has what you wanted to see made you blind?
  • #2,549
  • Jan 23, 2008 3:21am Jan 23, 2008 3:21am
wow, moved the blue fib new entry to the old t1 and price already hit new t1
Has what you wanted to see made you blind?
  • #2,550
  • Jan 23, 2008 3:30am Jan 23, 2008 3:30am
Quoting Dunkan
and here is the smaller blue fib that is about to be activated.. and just was as I type and wow, hit the target too..
I had my support level in a different place..........both fibs made pips tho
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trading naked.......
  • #2,551
  • Jan 23, 2008 3:42am Jan 23, 2008 3:42am
It took a while, but here are my next 70 pips on EJ.
And not even one indicator

If you get bothered by my charts... just tell me. Don't want to mess up the thread.
But tell me nicely please
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"The only successful substitute for brains is silence."
  • #2,552
  • Jan 23, 2008 3:52am Jan 23, 2008 3:52am
Quoting piphitman
Did a little experimenting tonight...........Entered into this trade looking first at the 1hr charts, scaled it down from 1hr to 5M, then to 1M for precise entry.

price bounced twice below 50 fib, then twice again right at the 50, then one pinbar bounce at the DZ, then two consecutive bounces right on the DZ.

Immediately started scaling in my "BUY" orders from there, manually Took Profit on all three just before TP1 area.

Thanks Issy.
Nice one Pip - I was in it too - demo of course - he he

Is this the chart you mentioned?
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #2,553
  • Edited 4:07am Jan 23, 2008 3:53am | Edited 4:07am
Never get bothered by successful trades with charts that help shine the light

oops meant DX Trader not Issy; but your input is also invaluable too Issy (open mouth, insert foot)
Has what you wanted to see made you blind?
  • #2,554
  • Jan 23, 2008 4:08am Jan 23, 2008 4:08am
Quoting Islander
Nice one Pip - I was in it too - demo of course - he he

Is this the chart you mentioned?
Yeah Islander,

Thanks again!!!!
trading naked.......
  • #2,555
  • Jan 23, 2008 4:09am Jan 23, 2008 4:09am
Quoting piphitman
I meant that in the context of seeing several candles within a fib range hit their spots before entering a trade, as opposed to entering a trade on say....only two candles. The 1M trade I posted here earlier I used as an example of waiting till price had moved around a bit and reached certain levels but did not exceed those levels before moving up and then not exceeding price at the next level and so on. You could watch the price do this all the way up to the 0/100 for entry. At that point you know once 0/100 is breached it's going to continue. I am looking for a way to enter before the 0/100 so that I can get more pips for profit, but more importantly reducing the drawdown if the trade goes bad.
Hi piphitman, thanks for that.

here are a couple of EJ charts, the first shows my hourly fibs, the 2 green have reached their targets but price has abruptly stopped in no mans land.
Chart 2 shows a 15m chart and the red fib shows the last hour bar has hit the 15m fib to the pip.
The magenta fib did not quite reach its 38 retracement, several pips off, so I'm not sure whether it is valid or not. Any comments?
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #2,556
  • Jan 23, 2008 4:16am Jan 23, 2008 4:16am
It looks like a few of us are on the same journey - nice one DXT, PipHit & Dunkan.

This is how I saw it earlier....off my 15 m - the action after the Fed's cut yesterday was bounded by my gold fib, which had a breakout to the upside that failed to reach the 132 - T1 - so that fib will be deleted.

I consider the yellow fib active for the internal retracements.

The magenta fib is also currently active and I've transfered it to my 5m chart - I always try to move my smallest fib down to a shorter TF where it becomes the larger fib in that TF.

On my 5m chart it had a great retrace into my Decision Zone - the 38.2 to 61.8 zone that Skunny has told us is important. Here price failed near the 209 level and depending on how you're trading - sorry, demoing - you got a sell after it exited the DZ.

I have got smaller fibs running, but dont like cluttering the chart. I guess we can all see an obvious place for a smaller range fib which would give an earlier entry and small risk.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: jan 23 gj 15m 0935.gif Size: 14 KB
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #2,557
  • Jan 23, 2008 4:45am Jan 23, 2008 4:45am
another fib step down for early entry............2 bounce off 50, 2 bounce off DZ, one bounce off of 23.6..........
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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trading naked.......
  • #2,558
  • Jan 23, 2008 5:06am Jan 23, 2008 5:06am
Thanks guys, this has been a VERY informative evening for me and I'm going to get some sleep to digest some of this new knowledge. See ya'll tomorrow, as we say in Texas.
Has what you wanted to see made you blind?
  • #2,559
  • Edited 5:51am Jan 23, 2008 5:14am | Edited 5:51am
Quoting piphitman
another fib step down for early entry............2 bounce off 50, 2 bounce off DZ, one bounce off of 23.6..........
Nice one Pip - I'm walking the same fib.

Whilst I'm naked indicatorwise - MACD, Stochastics etc - I do still have the Daily Pivots from 17:00 EST on a couple of my charts. Here, the doji at 207.30 just before the UK news was actually at the M2 level and the bounce was back to the pivot at 208.25. Like the 100 levels, the Yen pairs like pivots.

FYI, my 1m T2 is at 206.41 - the daily S1 level!

Edit: cable's just stalled at its daily pivot, normal service should be resumed shortly

Edit: cable hit its T1 and has stalled. UJ activated a sell off its 5m with T1 at 105.55 - its M1 level. Also I have 105.58 as its low off my 60m chart - so that area is important.

Edit: T2 hit, that's the second 100+ pip leg down since the FO.....
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #2,560
  • Jan 23, 2008 5:36am Jan 23, 2008 5:36am
Well, last post for today... dinner time

Looks like we are going towards another 100 pips here (or worst case small profit below break even)

Cya tomorrow...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gj.gif Size: 21 KB
"The only successful substitute for brains is silence."
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