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Auslanco - GBP/JPY and GBP/USD (newstrade)

  • #59,921
  • Jan 22, 2008 11:57pm Jan 22, 2008 11:57pm
Quoting auslanco
This is my prediction for the next two weeks.. a break of 204.50 will defuse the reversal .
one question???
do you use elliot wave???? or this analyse based upon momentoms??
tks
  • #59,922
  • Jan 23, 2008 2:24am Jan 23, 2008 2:24am
What do we make of the news in an hour ?

Will we whipsaw again ?
if anything it'll have negative effect with lower GDP ?

Or not much tonight, due to the vote to keep rates the same ?

Have a few trades open and don't want to get boned like with the Fed this am, while I was catchin a few hours sleep.
  • #59,923
  • Jan 23, 2008 2:27am Jan 23, 2008 2:27am
With such a bullish gbp even before the news I think that someone knows something than I don't
  • #59,924
  • Edited 3:34am Jan 23, 2008 3:12am | Edited 3:34am
Quoting my2buoys
I like your chart, aediaz. I don't follow wave patterns enough to know how accurate your D point might be, but I do like price retracing down to the 50 Fib around 207.60. That area is also right around the 4H 5SMA low and the 5SMA close on both the 8H and 12H charts. Current Momentum on the 4H, 8H and 12H charts shows that price could indeed run there within the next 4 to 8 hours (by London opening).

M2B
Glad you did, about the D point, I never set it as a profit-point, I rather use it as a buy point if price should get down to point D. I always take my first target at 50% retracement of BC leg. As you called , it hit down to 50%.

But I don't tend to draw ABCD just out from the blue, its more likely to occur when you have 1 more technical (S/R in these chase) with you, like now, price is @ top of downtrend channel.

BTW M2B, do you use same macd setting (22,52,18) on lower timeframes too ? Any specific reason you use so high setting ?
Measure twice, cut once
  • #59,925
  • Jan 23, 2008 4:49am Jan 23, 2008 4:49am
Quoting aediaz1
Glad you did, about the D point, I never set it as a profit-point, I rather use it as a buy point if price should get down to point D. I always take my first target at 50% retracement of BC leg. As you called , it hit down to 50%.

But I don't tend to draw ABCD just out from the blue, its more likely to occur when you have 1 more technical (S/R in these chase) with you, like now, price is @ top of downtrend channel.

BTW M2B, do you use same macd setting (22,52,18) on lower timeframes too ? Any specific reason you use so high setting ?
Sorry for the late reply, aediaz. I actually used the wrong chart to post that divergence that you saw the 24, 52, 18 MACD on. The answer is 'No', I don't use that setting on my standard charts and I don't use that setting to find divergence. I use the default of 12, 26, 9 on my standard charts to find divergence and look for trade set-ups. The higher setting I use on the 30M chart only for added confluence to another system I have been observing that only uses the 30M chart. If it looks good (and it does so far) I'll share it later on. Sorry for the confusion. Oh, and by the way, price did hit that 50 Fib at 207.60, eh? It looks a bit undecided now around 207.30. Me thinks it will now go down to at least the 61.8 Fib around 206.95. Not sure from there. I have to run out for a couple of hours right now. Be back later.

M2B
  • #59,926
  • Jan 23, 2008 5:58am Jan 23, 2008 5:58am
Trying fresh longs 6.47 on 2/3 retracement 4hr
"Millionaires don't use astrology, billionaires do"
  • #59,927
  • Jan 23, 2008 6:02am Jan 23, 2008 6:02am
GM = I see nothing has changed. . .
Sell all rallies in a downtrend market, Let the charts tell you when it's time to buy long-term and Trend is your friend!
Still short @ 210.30, 209.60 and 208.49. . .
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  • #59,928
  • Jan 23, 2008 6:07am Jan 23, 2008 6:07am
Quoting quecee5
GM = I see nothing has changed. . .
Sell all rallies in a downtrend market, Let the charts tell you when it's time to buy long-term and Trend is your friend!
Still short @ 210.30, 209.60 and 208.49. . .

  • #59,929
  • Jan 23, 2008 6:09am Jan 23, 2008 6:09am
Quoting dagoods
GM Dagoods =
  • #59,930
  • Jan 23, 2008 6:11am Jan 23, 2008 6:11am
only lo risk until it becomes negative LOL, not sure take what it yeilds, seems like we are trying for that bigger correction. This large zigzag down has gotta justa bout be exhausted if not already and this is the late shorts about to have their heads handed to them.
"Millionaires don't use astrology, billionaires do"
  • #59,931
  • Jan 23, 2008 6:15am Jan 23, 2008 6:15am
Quoting OrionsWay
only lo risk until it becomes negative LOL, not sure take what it yeilds, seems like we are trying for that bigger correction. This large zigzag down has gotta justa bout be exhausted if not already and this is the late shorts about to have their heads handed to them.

just seems low risk because not much going on volume wise slow market...lol... price seems like tis atracted to 89xma in market like this and 2/3 retraced like u said.... seems ok to try it to me
  • #59,932
  • Edited 7:01am Jan 23, 2008 6:16am | Edited 7:01am
Quoting my2buoys
Sorry for the late reply, aediaz. I actually used the wrong chart to post that divergence that you saw the 24, 52, 18 MACD on. The answer is 'No', I don't use that setting on my standard charts and I don't use that setting to find divergence. I use the default of 12, 26, 9 on my standard charts to find divergence and look for trade set-ups. The higher setting I use on the 30M chart only for added confluence to another system I have been observing that only uses the 30M chart. If it looks good (and it does so far) I'll share it later on. Sorry for the confusion. Oh, and by the way, price did hit that 50 Fib at 207.60, eh? It looks a bit undecided now around 207.30. Me thinks it will now go down to at least the 61.8 Fib around 206.95. Not sure from there. I have to run out for a couple of hours right now. Be back later.

M2B
Right, then I have the same settings. Yeh price stroke right down on it With this bearish power we might see D target.

When 50% is reached,I switch over to a breakout system (to determinate if the trend could be strong enough for point D to print) with stochs with x2 setting (5,3,3 & 14,3,3) , I would like to throw in that I use them the other way around (with fibs lvls)than many other people does. Drawing fibs from currently season (Asia here) and when stochs are underneath 23.6 lvl (or 76.4 if long) and the price breaks ether 100 or 0 of fib drawing we have a short/long opportunity. Does this system sounds familiar to you ?

The scary part of this, is that I haven't had 1 negative trade on it yet so I'm (idiotic as it sounds) trying to break down this system and find all the weakness I can. No worries, a negative trade WILL come no matter what. If I can say something negative; it produces at most 80 pips,randomly 20-40. And it only gives signal few times a week.

Oh well, this turned quite off-topic. Just want some impulses on this, since ABCD pattern sometimes is like watching a flower growing(masculine metaphor).

So as with this breakout trade I got in @ 207 and produces a rather quick profit. The amount of reward is nothing to take a backward flick-flack from,but hey..its still + % on my account. I fell selfish for not posting the trade since I turned out to be a 100% perfect setup; when 100% fib broke (1h candle) price was still @ 207 as stochs crossed 23.6
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Measure twice, cut once
  • #59,933
  • Jan 23, 2008 6:18am Jan 23, 2008 6:18am
Quoting dagoods
just seems low risk because not much going on volume wise slow market...lol... price seems like tis atracted to 89xma in market like this and 2/3 retraced like u said.... seems ok to try it to me
Price is trading below daily pivot and looks to be headed toward 205.59/60 or so 1st.

Good luck in your trading today. . .
  • #59,934
  • Jan 23, 2008 6:21am Jan 23, 2008 6:21am
Quoting quecee5
Price is trading below daily pivot and looks to be headed toward 205.59/60 or so 1st.

Good luck in your trading today. . .

ok ty q i am not in any trade anyway too slow ....
  • #59,935
  • Jan 23, 2008 6:24am Jan 23, 2008 6:24am
resting buy at 6.33 also picked, swapped .47 for .33 +2
"Millionaires don't use astrology, billionaires do"
  • #59,936
  • Jan 23, 2008 6:40am Jan 23, 2008 6:40am
Quoting quecee5
Price is trading below daily pivot and looks to be headed toward 205.59/60 or so 1st.

Good luck in your trading today. . .

yeah i am tired and confused by price action last couple days i saw 204.92 as possibility also .... just cant get the rythm here lately ... staying out till i am sure what i see
  • #59,937
  • Jan 23, 2008 6:47am Jan 23, 2008 6:47am
kinda what im thinking here, perhaps 3x int today may help the cause maybe not.

entry was pre emptive one should wait and see complete 1h bar remains reversal bar

As u can see it failed next pink box 5.85 top 5.59 bottom for a typical Wc
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"Millionaires don't use astrology, billionaires do"
  • #59,938
  • Jan 23, 2008 7:17am Jan 23, 2008 7:17am
Quoting dagoods
yeah i am tired and confused by price action last couple days i saw 204.92 as possibility also .... just cant get the rythm here lately ... staying out till i am sure what i see
Yep, best to stay out when you are tired, but remember we just made a lower high @ 210.45 from the high before @ 212.50. . . Price shouldn't go any higher so I'm thinking whenever it goes back up it should challenge b/n 207-209 area then back down again. Price will eventually hit 200 because fundamentals have not change. We are in a downtrend market so its best to. . .

Sell all rallies (not buy) in a downtrend, let charts tell you when it time to buy long-term and trade with the trend because TREND IS YOUR FRIEND!
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  • #59,939
  • Jan 23, 2008 7:32am Jan 23, 2008 7:32am
Quoting quecee5
Yep, best to stay out when you are tired, but remember we just made a lower high @ 210.45 from the high before @ 212.50. . . Price shouldn't go any higher so I'm thinking whenever it goes back up it should challenge b/n 207-209 area then back down again. Price will eventually hit 200 because fundamentals have not change. We are in a downtrend market so its best to. . .

Sell all rallies (not buy) in a downtrend, let charts tell you when it time to buy long-term and trade with the trend because TREND IS YOUR FRIEND!

you so rule q ! lol lower high yues i see .... thanks q
  • #59,940
  • Jan 23, 2008 7:56am Jan 23, 2008 7:56am
do you think 204.70 will hold? I see a MACD divergence in my 1H chart. THis is the second time price touches 204.7 and some signs of rejection can be observed in lower TF's.

I've set up a very small buy position from 204.75 let's see what happens ...
Discipline + Patience - Fear - Greed = Success
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