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Indicator Free Trading - Skunny

  • #2,521
  • Jan 22, 2008 7:57pm Jan 22, 2008 7:57pm
When I first came upon that discovery I thought to myself....."It can't be this easy", but alas, nothing in forex is that easy

Then I figured the only problem I saw with trading that strategy was the HUUUUUGE stop loss needed for the daily trade. If nothing else it sure is good to know that whatever side it 'breaks" on though is a good chance it will stay on that side the remainder of that trading day.
trading naked.......
  • #2,522
  • Jan 22, 2008 8:06pm Jan 22, 2008 8:06pm
Quoting sizzler
I mean... if I am hitting or missing by like 1-10 pips lets say... that is pretty good to trade depending on the tf...right? what kind of accuracy is everyone looking for/happy with?
IMO if you don't quite hit your target to the pip, I would suggest you keep in mind that what appears to have hit the target (but actually missed it by a few pips) may not be the true target, meaning the target may still get hit to the pip. So just be careful when trading the next swing..

You might remember this chart from a while back. Maybe not the best example, but there are similar situations where one may think they hit target because of bad data feed or missed by only a couple pips. In this chart if you took profit at the false target (yellow fibs) and then traded the swing to go long (blue fibs), you would of been stopped out. Just something to think about

Quoting 4X4EVER
I just picked out a random time frame of days on the 1 hour chart for the GBP/USD and drew some fibs on the daily hi/lo range. The next day if it broke the hi or low it acheived the 138 and in most cases more. Of course, I am not drawing these fibs on significant swings of s/r that would probably show a more exact target at the 138 but it is nice to know that out of 8 days there were 8 trades that hit the target. The only exception is what Pip HIt Man wrote where that day it traded inside the previous days hi/lo range but the following day it hit the 138 of the prior two days. AWESOME!!!!!!

Daniel
Great job Daniel and piphitman This is exactly the type of research we need. I'm sure most may recall some of Skunny's first posts where he mentioned plotting your fibs on weekly bars. I did that study as he suggested several weeks ago. And yes more often than not this was true. However, losses are 2.5 times bigger than the wins (fib percentage, I did not count the pips). I ran my weekly fib test over a random period of time and found that 79 times my weekly bars hit the 38 ext or higher and 29 times it resulted in hitting my loss on the opposite side (weekly low or high). I think this is where knowing whats going on in the smaller time frames is just as important to the overall success of trading the larger time frames. I recall him saying "don't make a system from this just yet". Of course that was weekly, not daily, but I'm sure the same applies to some extent. Anyhow, great job on your research. I'm sure others here appreciate it as well. It is sure to help us trade better.

Jon
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The market is like the matrix - it is you that must learn to bend
  • #2,523
  • Jan 22, 2008 8:41pm Jan 22, 2008 8:41pm
Quoting 4X4EVER
I just picked out a random time frame of days on the 1 hour chart for the GBP/USD and drew some fibs on the daily hi/lo range. The next day if it broke the hi or low it acheived the 138 and in most cases more. Of course, I am not drawing these fibs on significant swings of s/r that would probably show a more exact target at the 138 but it is nice to know that out of 8 days there were 8 trades that hit the target. The only exception is what Pip HIt Man wrote where that day it traded inside the previous days hi/lo range but the following day it hit the 138 of the prior two days. AWESOME!!!!!!

Daniel
Yep, I noticed the same thing this past weekend and my charts (see posts 2496 and 2503) reflect this, where the yellow is the previous weekly range, blue the previous day, pink the previous 4 hr candle, and khaki the last one hour. It worked very well for Monday, but yesterday, seemed to start failing when the Eurpoean session started. When multiple time frame fibs were activated and subsequentially failed (all broke back above their entry prices before completing 138 and all entrys were very near the same level), price shot up. Wait, price did come pretty close to the 138 of my weekly fib (22 pips), so maybe that was a signal for a revesal of sorts?

And here are the most recent ones... I've been trying to move the fibs to each new candle that forms and experimenting with that with a little success, but I'm still missing something.

All interpretations or other ideas welcome..
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Has what you wanted to see made you blind?
  • #2,524
  • Jan 22, 2008 9:07pm Jan 22, 2008 9:07pm
Quoting GridTrader
IMO if you don't quite hit your target to the pip, I would suggest you keep in mind that what appears to have hit the target (but actually missed it by a few pips) may not be the true target, meaning the target may still get hit to the pip. So just be careful when trading the next swing..

You might remember this chart from a while back. Maybe not the best example, but there are similar situations where one may think they hit target because of bad data feed or missed by only a couple pips. In this chart if you took profit at the false target (yellow fibs) and then traded the swing to go long (blue fibs), you would of been stopped out. Just something to think about


Great job Daniel and piphitman This is exactly the type of research we need. I'm sure most may recall some of Skunny's first posts where he mentioned plotting your fibs on weekly bars. I did that study as he suggested several weeks ago. And yes more often than not this was true. However, losses are 2.5 times bigger than the wins (fib percentage, I did not count the pips). I ran my weekly fib test over a random period of time and found that 79 times my weekly bars hit the 38 ext or higher and 29 times it resulted in hitting my loss on the opposite side (weekly low or high). I think this is where knowing whats going on in the smaller time frames is just as important to the overall success of trading the larger time frames. I recall him saying "don't make a system from this just yet". Of course that was weekly, not daily, but I'm sure the same applies to some extent. Anyhow, great job on your research. I'm sure others here appreciate it as well. It is sure to help us trade better.

Jon
Hey Jon,
looks like a good range set up now... lets grid this baby.
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  • #2,525
  • Jan 22, 2008 9:22pm Jan 22, 2008 9:22pm
Does this set up look right ?

Seems we're gonna hit the 38.2 and we hit a few Fibs on the ride up.
Would we expect a retrace back up to the 23.6 line on the future move towards the bottom, of this downtrend ?

Thanks for your thoughts and insights. Just learning this stuff.

kj
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  • #2,526
  • Edited 9:45pm Jan 22, 2008 9:41pm | Edited 9:45pm
Quoting kujo17
Does this set up look right ?

Seems we're gonna hit the 38.2 and we hit a few Fibs on the ride up.
Would we expect a retrace back up to the 23.6 line on the future move towards the bottom, of this downtrend ?

Thanks for your thoughts and insights. Just learning this stuff.

kj
Oh oh oh.... way too many indicators

My "feeling" is that the pairs will resume the trend from before yesterday.
Can't really explain it.

Any way... here my GJ and EJ charts for today.

Edit: No, I don't have a daughter, just like the colors
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"The only successful substitute for brains is silence."
  • #2,527
  • Jan 22, 2008 9:51pm Jan 22, 2008 9:51pm
ahh, the indicators.
sorry..... still learning the whole 4X thing.

I feel it will continue down as well, on the whole.

But, following the trend and the fib lines in this chart, it should retrace back up to 209.x area before heading down to the 50 and lower, no ?

I know anything can happen, just an observation and curious what others thought of what will happen tonight before London open.

thanks,
kj

btw, I have added indicator free charts since I shot that screen shot.......:
  • #2,528
  • Jan 22, 2008 9:59pm Jan 22, 2008 9:59pm
Quoting wannabeatrader
Hey Jon,
looks like a good range set up now... lets grid this baby.
Hey Jim! In due time . I'm still learning this thing, but plan on implementing some existing strategies into the fibbing process.
The market is like the matrix - it is you that must learn to bend
  • #2,529
  • Jan 22, 2008 9:59pm Jan 22, 2008 9:59pm
Sorry to innundate the thread with my novice attempts to draw fibs.. just trying to get it right
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Has what you wanted to see made you blind?
  • #2,530
  • Jan 22, 2008 10:02pm Jan 22, 2008 10:02pm
Sorry to innundate the thread with my novice skillz; just trying to get it right
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Has what you wanted to see made you blind?
  • #2,531
  • Jan 22, 2008 10:38pm Jan 22, 2008 10:38pm
Guys... we reached page 169 and I took an important decision:

Today I deleted all my 350 indicators in my MT4 (actually I moved them in a separate folder... you never know), just left some basic ones like vhands.

I might have a cold turkey the next days... but right now I'm fine. :

And as a side note:
First 70 pips reached for today
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"The only successful substitute for brains is silence."
  • #2,532
  • Jan 22, 2008 10:48pm Jan 22, 2008 10:48pm
Indicator free......
Just took GPY from 210 down to 207.5, because of my Fib chart.

thanks guys..... ;-)
  • #2,533
  • Jan 22, 2008 11:56pm Jan 22, 2008 11:56pm
Quoting DXTrade
Guys... we reached page 169 and I took an important decision:

Today I deleted all my 350 indicators in my MT4 (actually I moved them in a separate folder... you never know), just left some basic ones like vhands.

I might have a cold turkey the next days... but right now I'm fine. :

And as a side note:
First 70 pips reached for today
Congrats! I'm headed there myself. Oh nice trade by the way. I took the same one on GJ.

Thanks Skunny for giving us real tools to work with. Not some cheap screwdriver for hammering nails into a 2x4!
Attached Images
The market is like the matrix - it is you that must learn to bend
  • #2,534
  • Jan 23, 2008 12:14am Jan 23, 2008 12:14am
Quoting DXTrade
Guys... we reached page 169 and I took an important decision:

Today I deleted all my 350 indicators in my MT4 (actually I moved them in a separate folder... you never know), just left some basic ones like vhands.

I might have a cold turkey the next days... but right now I'm fine. :

And as a side note:
First 70 pips reached for today
Congrats DX............if you start jonesin for some indi's just log onto this thread and we'll get you down off of that indicator ledge.
trading naked.......
  • #2,535
  • Jan 23, 2008 12:51am Jan 23, 2008 12:51am
ok so on my last chart my pink fib was the same as DX's and Grid's so that makes me feel a whole lot better. I was trying though to figure out why my khaki fib seemingly activated and did not complete, but then I pulled another fib on a swing from a smaller timeframe and saw that it indeed did make the 138 before it reversed. So the questions then become, how low of a time frame must you go down to and how do you know when the market is begining to reverse? And they may very well answer each other.
Has what you wanted to see made you blind?
  • #2,536
  • Jan 23, 2008 1:23am Jan 23, 2008 1:23am
pink fib almost hit 618 extention and retraced to 0% and consolidate.

A move below 207.45 will be entry to short which is a new cycle.
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  • #2,537
  • Jan 23, 2008 1:41am Jan 23, 2008 1:41am
Here, the second orange fib has made the 138 extension and pulled back; so move the top to the 138 extension and come up with second chart. So now break of .62 targets 208.07; lets see..
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Has what you wanted to see made you blind?
  • #2,538
  • Jan 23, 2008 2:09am Jan 23, 2008 2:09am
Quoting DXTrade
Guys... we reached page 169 and I took an important decision:

Today I deleted all my 350 indicators in my MT4 (actually I moved them in a separate folder... you never know), just left some basic ones like vhands.

I might have a cold turkey the next days... but right now I'm fine. :

And as a side note:
First 70 pips reached for today
Guess this nakedness must be catching - I had to delete the MT4 on my backup 'puter and reload it - I didnt save a single indicator or template.

Now I'm just walking Fib, naked for the first time in years.

I'm a few pips behind you so far today, but I only started at 01:00 EST!

http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon12.gif
Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #2,539
  • Jan 23, 2008 2:12am Jan 23, 2008 2:12am
Did a little experimenting tonight...........Entered into this trade looking first at the 1hr charts, scaled it down from 1hr to 5M, then to 1M for precise entry.

price bounced twice below 50 fib, then twice again right at the 50, then one pinbar bounce at the DZ, then two consecutive bounces right on the DZ.

Immediately started scaling in my "BUY" orders from there, manually Took Profit on all three just before TP1 area.

Thanks Issy.
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trading naked.......
  • #2,540
  • Jan 23, 2008 2:16am Jan 23, 2008 2:16am
Quoting Dunkan
Sorry to innundate the thread with my novice skillz; just trying to get it right
Hi Dunkan,
I thought that somebody ought to reply to you. I am not qualified to judge other peoples Fibs because:
1. I am just a novice at this stuff.
2. Different people have different objectives. For example some are looking for something that is tradeable and some are looking for the 'Moley Quail'.

What I do say, about your Fibs, is that it is very easy in retrospect to tell if a Fib was good or not. So if you keep your Fib carts for a frew days or weeks you will see how good the Fibs were - alternatively use VHands to go back in history and trade a timeperiod in 'live simulation' in fact that is what Skunny has always recomended us doing.

For me, my Fibs are only correct if:

A). They meet their 138 target to the pip (+- 5 pips to account for brokers feeds etc.)

B). There are no false breakouts - i.e. once price has gone 5 pips beyond a Fib extreme, a stoploss at the opposite extreme (+ - 5 pips) must not be hit.

C). They walk forward in a logical way.

D). (This is new and I am not sure what he means by it). Skunny said that for a Fib to be valid, it must have its 'mid -range resistance levels completed'. Until that time it is not to be considered a valid 100% tradeable Fib.

I keep thinking that I I have 'got it' when I can sting together a walk of a few 'perfect Fibs' but then they stop fitting perfectly again and I see false breakouts.

I hope that this helps,
Ian
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